Hi all. Got not time for detailed journal at the mo with kids/full-time day job etc. So i’m going to do brief updates on an intrady day/daily basis. Don’t care if no-one gives a toss and i’m the only one who reads it!
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So. Today I started a new trading position. I’m shorting copper. Down £600 at the moment😃
Now I’m down £700
But this is normal few me. The minute I open a position it moves precipitously in the other direction.
Don’t worry everyone, there’s more good stuff on it’s way.
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Hey @MattyMoney ! Thanks for being my first (and possibly only!!) comment😃 Yup, I’ve been shorting copper a while now on and off. It’s finally beginning to pay off. First time I shorted it the Ukraine crisis came along and sent prices sky-rocketing. I joke about, but seriously, I think copper’s got a fair bit of down-trend left. If i’m proven wrong and it breaks out north of the resistance on that graph you kindly posted then I’m positioning myself long cos when that break-out comes it’ll be a big one.
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Just hit 50 session MA on 1 hrly chart - my first resistance level. Should come back to me now or when it passes a bit north of the 100 session MA on same chart (my second resistance level). If it doesn’t then it’s in the long grass and I’ll start thinking about going long - but I doubt that’ll happen. Only £260 down now - so i’m kind of winning - hey?
Interesting timing you should put this up right now. I had a look at my recent losing and winning trades this week to highlight commonalities in each group.
About a third of the losers were good trades but the SL was too tight and was hit by volatility, not reversals or trend failures.
Another third were basically duplicates of the losing trades above - for example I had bought (or sold) the same currency across several pairs. So what seemed like several sound positions of not excessive size was actually one big fat position on the same basis. And so when the currency in question went the other direction I lost twice or three times on the same market rotation.
Of the wins, most came when I bought the strongest currency across various crosses and sold the weakest.
Simple stuff really.
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OK. So it’s the week-end. Sunday evening/monday I’m expecting a big pullback from either current position or the 100MA. If it goes much past that red line (beyond that diagonal line i’ve drawn) then I might have to forget this current trade and do a volte face going long, till the price comes back to me. We’ll see. You guys will see me either make or lose quite alot of money!
Could this be the reversal? I don’t know but if you believe in indicators and wotnot then stochast and rsi are favourable. I don’t tend to trade reversals but this one is with long term trend on higher timeframes, so feel bit better about it (that and i don’t have much choice at the mo.) Either it’ll reverse or keep climbing😀
Take note, the one guy who’s viewing this!!
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A further observation on losing trades.
Its clear that all my winners have been going straight from entry to TP. This can be a quick move or slow, but more often quick.
The losers on the other hand went straight from entry to SL. No losers tended to get to halfway to the SL and then recover: if they got to halfway tot he SL, they never recovered into even a modest profit - they carried on all the way to the SL.
What I take from this is that my SL’s (and TP’s derived from them) have been too tight, so ordinary volatility has been killing my trades.
Let’s see. I’m not quite ready to fold yet…
Not bad volume……
