Because GBPUSD offers a better directional bias than EURUSD, I will be tracking it for trading opportunity this week. Here’s my top-down technical outlook on GBPUSD.
The pair has disposed northward since much of October 2017. On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel (bound in red coloured lines). Five price waves have been completed. However between mid September and mid November 2017, price action has largely been sideways. Bulls took price action northward in late November but failed to reach the distal part of the channel. Nevertheless, price action is still under the control of bulls although there was a pullback of price by bears last week Friday. We may expect a pull back to a support trendline (navy colour) in the days ahead. This may extend to the distal channel line.
On the H4 time frame, bears took control of recent price action and pushed price southwards. However, the ascending (support) trendline seen on the daily time frame (navy colour) is still intact. An immediate target of the southward pullback is likely to be the 1.33420 area, which is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib zone of the upward swing from the low of November 13, 2017. This may extend to, or expose, the 50/61.8 Fib band, which is proximal to the immediate support on the H4 time frame and may be a retest of the support trendline (navy colour). In fact, price action may continue southward to retest the proximal channel line (red colour) seen on the daily time frame. Thereafter, we may expect price action to turnaround northward.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.