My 2 cents
Good preparation, thorough market analysis, preparing a trading plan for each trade you intend to take, and waiting for the right moment to strike will help you do well in the market.
Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking the EURUSD for trading opportunities this week, you may find this technical perspective helpful.
On the daily timeframe, price action was respecting a support trendline from the low of May 10, 2017. This formed an ascending channel with the high of March 28, 2017 (bound in navy coloured lines). The most recent price action is bullish in nature and showed increased momentum as an inner support trendline (chocolate colour) has developed. This may result in subsequent price action moving toward the distal channel line (navy colour), perhaps around the 1.19066 area, before any retracement is seen. As four price waves have consummated within the channel, we may see a fifth price wave heading southward after price action has tested the 1.19066 area. A potential target of a southward move is the immediate horizontal support around the 1.16205 area. This area is in confluence with the monthly pivot.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I will be looking for a sell trading oportunity on EURJPY this week. Here’s why.
On the H4 time frame, an ascending trendline (magenta colour) from the low of Aoril 21, 2017 acted as support for some time but was breached southward last week Friday by price action. The last seesion on Friday was a bearish follow-through after the previous candlestick retested the tendline flipping it to a resistance. A likely initial target of further southward move is the immediate minor support around the 126.595 area but there may be a period of sideways movement before an increased southward momentum.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking EURUSD, consider the following technical analysis.
The pair has been on an upside move since May 2017. Three weeks ago, the pair was in a sideways operation within an ascending channel in an area that has served as an S/R zone on a number of occasions in the past. Last week price action moved to retest the distal part of the zone around the 1.19066 area; an area it had rejected southward four weeks ago.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (black colour) from the low of June 20, 2017. For much of July and August 2017, price action was consolidating within a descending channel (bound by navy coloured lines). This was breached distally by over 140 pips last week. We may expect price action to retest the distal part of the channel or the trendline (magenta colour) before further upward move. A break of the trendline southward on at least a daily close is likely to target the next significant support zone around the 1.16650 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Here’s why I am bearish on GBPCAD.
Here’s why I am bearish on GBPCAD.
After a drop from the high of December 2015 to the low of September 2016 and its 38.2 Fib retracement, which happened in April 2017, the pair has been on a southward move on the monthly time frame since May 2017.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour) from the high of June 8, 2016. However, the last sessions on Friday saw buyers taking charge of price action and we may see a retracement northward, possibly to the 30/50 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the high of August 3, 2017 to last Friday’s low (bound by the two magenta coloured horizontal lines), between 1.62302 and 1.63370.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking GBPCAD this week, you may find the following top-down technical analysis helpful.
On the daily time frame, since June 2017, price action has been operating within a descending channel (bound in navy coloured lines). Last week Wednesday, it rejected the distal channel line with a strong bearish engulfing candlestick. This was followed up on Friday with another bearish move. Overall price wave formation indicates a third wave heading southward and we may expect this move to target the 1.57390 area.
The descending channel seen on the daily time frame (bound in navy coloured lines) is pronounced on the H4 time frame and the third price wave, which is bearing southward, is in play. Technically, nothing on the H4 time frame suggests anything different from a bearish continuation. And this move may target somewhere between 1.59995 and 1.59863 before a retracement occurs.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Here’s why I am still bearish on USDCAD.
On the weekly time frame, price action is operating in a descending wedge and is presently at the proximal end of the wedge upon a third price wave. Besides, price action is at an area of support on the weekly time frame. Last week a relatively big bearish candlestick was formed which gave a strong intent that bears would follow through the bearish pin bar formed two weeks ago. The technicals on the weekly time frame are in support of further southward move. Such a move is likely to target the immediate support zone around the 1.19015 area.
The order flow on the H4 time frame is clearly under the control of bears. However, last Friday’s sessions bulls pushing back price towards an area of value. The constellation of H4 bullish candlesticks formed on Friday portends a further pullback of price. The immediate area of value for such a pullback is likely to be the 38.2 Fiib zone of the most recent swing low from the high of August 31, 2017; this is between 1.22155 and 1.23097 (bound in magenta horizontal lines). The medium-and long-term technicals on the H4 time frame support further southward, advisably after the short-term pullback.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking the GPBNZD, here’s a top-down technical perspective you may consider.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline from the low of August 18, 2017 and the momentum increased last week Thursday. However, the momentum reduced on Friday as bears managed to push price back to the 1.86195 area, which is a minor S/R area last tranversed southward on May 22, 2017. This area may witness a consolidating price action or pullback to the support trendline before further bullish move. At any rate, a pullback is in the offing as price is too far from an area of value.
On the H4 time frame, price action has moved further upward from the support trendline (navy colour) seen on the D1. It is now respecting an inner suppot trendline (magenta colour) from the low of September 8, 2017. The sessions on Friday resulted in a topping formation, including two bearish pinbars, at a significant resistance zone around the 1.86195 area. Apparently, a retracement southward is in the offing. A likely target of such a retracement is the inner support trendline (magnta) or the confluence zone of a minor support area and the 38.2/50 Fib retracement zone of the most recent swing high (bound in magenta coloured horizontal lines), spanning 1.84997 and 1.83531.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Here’s why I am bullish n the EURJPY this week.
Price action on the H4 time frame is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame. However, from the most recent price action last week Friday, a resistance trendline (magenta colour) is emerging. Should price action validate this resistance trendline on Monday, we may expect bears to drive price southward, initially to retest th distal cannel line around 131.62, which is about 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent swing high on the H4 time frame. This appears to be a more feasible price action technically as the price is too far, more than 100 pips, from the mean vaue area. Nevertheless, we may witness a period of consolidation, particularly on lower tine frames, before such a southward move materializes. As the major market outook is bullish technically, such a southward move to test the support trendline (navy colour) may be merely corrective. However, should that support trendline be broken, particularly on a daily cose, we may see a negation of the bullish bias and the next support around the 129.600 area will be exposed.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Are you tracking EURJPY this week? Here’s a top-down technical analysis you may want to consider.
Price action is respecting an outer support trendline (navy colour) and an inner support trendline (chocolate colour) on the daily time frame and as long as the trendlines are still intact, a bullish disposition will be maintained. A sideways pattern is clearly seen on the daily time frame during the last four days of lart week. Also, a wedge pattern is also discernible through the resistance trenndline (magenta colour) on the highs of the daily candlesticks, and two price waves have been formed within the wedge. A third price wave is likely to bear southward and target the outer support trendline (navy colour) or the horizontal support around the 130.066 area, which is in confluence with the monthly central pivot.
A wedge pattern has been formed by recent price action on the H4 time frame (bound in magenta coloured lines). As seen on the daily time frame, two price waves are visible and a third is bearing southward. This may lead to the break of the wedge southward and target the minor support zone on the H4 time frame aound the 131.325 area, which is a 61.8 Fib retracement level of the most recent swing high from the outer support trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame; this descent may extend to the 130.600 area – which is the 78.6 Fib retracement area, and retest the inner support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the daily time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Although I am bearish on this pair, I will wait for a break of the wedge on the H4 time frame, around the 133.285 area, before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Just sharing
If you would go far in this business learn to properly read, analyse, track and trap the market. One key issue here is focusing on and tracking significant price turning zones. For example, I have just deleted an email from my inbox. It was from a Forex news feed. It harped: ‘EUR declines on German elections…’ In my books, it is never the German elections that caused the decline. The money makers did, sensing that they have reached their targeted turning points. I never realized this a few years ago, but watching and stalking price action at significant turning zones is now the centerpiece of my trading.
Trade safe and prosper.
I have just completed the first phase of my weekly technical screening of the markets. Based on this, the pairs I will be tracking the week beginning October 1, 2017 are AUDUSD and XAUUSD (GOLD) because there was clarity in price action on the pairs last week.
Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking the AUDUSD this week, you may consider this top-down technical perspective.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating within an ascending channel (bound by navy coloured lines) formed by the support trendline seen on the weekly time frame and a resistance trendline from the high of July 28, 2017. Two price waves have formed within the channel and third is in play from the distal channel line. The most recent price action has reached a significant support zone and this is in confluence with a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of June 1, 2017. The price action on Thursday and Friday last week was under the control of bulls and we may see a retracement to an area of value before further southward move. The target of such a retracement is likely to be the 0.79015 area, which is the immediate minor resistance on the daily time frame. However, should price action continue without a retracement, a break southward is likely to target the 0.77140 area.
Price action on the H4 timeframe is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour). The technicals are largely biased in favour of bears. Therefore, very much likely and based on the bgiger picture from the weekly and daily time frames, we may expect a southward continuation in the medium term. The immediate target of such a southward move is the 0.78700 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on this pair but I will wait for a retracement to retest the resistance trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 timeframe before looking for a sell trading opportunity. Also, a retracement upward to the 0.79015 area will offer me an opportunity to look for a sell trade.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on the EURUSD. Here’s why.
On the daily time frame, price action has ben ranging for over eight days after breaking the support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of April 2017. The most recent price action is retracing upward and may target the 1.18225 area. On the H4 time frame, price action is makng a move upward into an area of value, it may target the 1.18510 area; which is proximal to the monthly central pivot. Nevertheless, we may expect a trendline (navy colour) from the high of August 20, 2017 to act as resitance. It will be interesting to see how price action behaves around this trendline.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Are you tracking the GBPUSD for trading opportunities this week? Consider this top-down technical perspective.
Four weeks ago, price action on this pair entered the 50.0 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. Since then price action on the pair has commenced a bearish descent. Last week, a strong bearish candlestick broke below the monthly central pivot. With the technicals on the weekly time frame disposed southward, we may expect a bearish continuation to target the immediate support around the 1.28850 area; this may extend to a significant support around the 1.27115 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken an inner support trendline (magenta colour) and heading towards a major support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the daiy time frame. The last two sessions on Friday saw a bullish move to push price upward. Should the bulls succeed in this move, we may see a retracement to the immediate horizontal support around the 1.32000 area or a retest of the support trendline (magenta colour) turned resistance before price action heads southward with a potential, initial target being the major support trendline (chocolate colour), which may extend to the horizontal support around the 1.27115 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on this pair and I will be interested in a sell trading opportunity should price action pull back into the 1.32000 area, specifically to within the zone between 1.31396 and 1.32116 (bound by saddlebrown coloured hprizontal lines) on the H4 chart.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on EURJPY. Here’s why.
On the daily time frame, price action has broken the support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 14, 2017. Together with a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of July 11, 2017, it was apparent that price action has been operating in a wedge for quite a while. Although the wedge is apparently breached southward, a support trendline (magenta colour) from the highs formed between July and early September 2017 is still intact and will have to be breached before we can expect momentum for a bearish continuation. Should this happen, a likely target for such a bearish move is the 129.970 area, the origin of the most recent swing high. Otherwise, we may expect price action to move sideways for a while or retest the 133.800 area.
Price action was operating in a wedge on the H4 time frame for a long while in September and October. The wedge is not yet broken, particularly considering that the wedge support (dark violet colour) on the H4 time frame is still not decisively breached even though that of the D1 time frame (navy colour) has been breached. Therefore, we may expect a retracement, perhaps to retest the wedge resistance (red colour); although the support trendline on D1 turned resistance may be an initial target of such a retest. We may expect the 133.100/350 area to be a magnet of such a retracement before a turnaround for a bearish continuation materializes. The technicals on the H4 time frame are disposed southward.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Here’s how I will trade this pair.
I will wait for a retracement to one of the significant resistance trendlines or the 133.100/350 area before looking for a sell trading opportunity. Specifically, I will look for a retracement into the zone between 133.065 and 133.345 (bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines on the H4 time frame) before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.