AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major -EUR/USD

Update Time: [B]22 Apr 2014 [/B] [I]00:52 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD - 1.3791[/B]
Yesterday’s anticipated breach of last week’s low at 1.3790 to 1.3787 in holiday-thinned New York session confirms recent decline from April’s high at 1.3906 has resumed and expect initial consolidation before aforesaid fall pressures euro to 1.3761 (being 61.8% r of the early rise from 1.3672-1.3906), however, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above 1.3748 (previous res, now sup).

On the upside, only a firm rise back above Monday’s high at 1.3831 would signal temporary low is in place, however, reckon res at 1.3865 would remain intact.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on EUR/USD[/B] - 1.3605

Update Time: [B]04 Jun 2014[/B] [I]06:53 GMT[/I]

The single currency’s weakness after last Thursday’s fall to a fresh 3-month low at 1.3586 suggests fall from May’s 2-1/2 year high at 1.3995 remains in progress and further decline to 1.3560/70 would be seen after consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon support at 1.3518 should hold and bring a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 1.3688 would indicate a temporary low has been made and shift risk to the upside for a stronger retracement towards 1.3734.

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[B] Daily Market Outlook on EUR/USD[/B] - 1.3659

Update Time: [B]06 Jun 2014 [/B] [I] 01:01GMT[/I]

Despite Thursday’s sell off to a near 4-month trough of 1.3503 after ECB’s bold stimulus measures, intra-day swift rally due to active short-covering and subsequent strong gain above 1.3650 res to 1.3670 confirms euro’s decline from May’s near 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has formed a temporary low there and several days of choppy consolidation with upside bias is envisaged.

As long as 1.3586 (previous sup) holds, further gain to 1.3690/00 is expected later today, however, near term overbought condition should cap euro’s upside below res at 1.3734 today.

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3594

Update Time: 04 Jul 2014 00:34 GMT

Euro’s intra-day sell off to 1.3596 in New York morning after release of robust U.S. jobs report confirms recent erratic rise from June’s near 4-month trough at 1.3503 has made a top earlier at 1.3700 on Tuesday and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.3577, however, anticipated near term oversold condition is expected to keep price above 1.3537/42 and bring subsequent rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3643 (Wed’s low, now res) would dampen present bearish scenario on the euro and risk stronger gain toward 1.3664 but 1.3700 should remain intact and yield further ‘choppy’ trading.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD[/B] - 1.3565

Update Time: [B]16 Jul 2014 [/B] [I]01:21 GMT[/I]

Euro’s breach of last Monday’s low at 1.3576 to 1.3562 on Tuesday due to broad-based firmness in greenback confirms correction from June’s bottom at 1.3503 has ended earlier at 1.3700 in July and as price is currently trading below both 21-hour and 55-hour EMAs, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said low later this week.

On the upside, only a break of 1.3650 would prolong choppy trading above aforesaid low at 1.3503 and may risk another bounce towards 1.3700.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD[/B] - 1.3307

Update Time: [B]20 Aug 2014[/B] [I]03:53 GMT[/I]

Euro came under renewed selling pressure shortly after Asian open on Wed following yesterday’s break of previous August’s low at 1.3333 to a fresh 9-month trough of 1.3313 in New York morning due to upbeat U.S. housing starts data.

Although the single currency has hit an intra-day low of 1.3304 in thin Asian trading, below option barrier at 1.3300 needed to extend medium-term downtrend to 1.3270/75 later in the day. On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3333 would signal temporary low is in place and risk stronger recovery to 1.3365/75.

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[B] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD[/B] - 1.3193
Update Time: [B]28 Aug 2014[/B] [I]00:36 GMT[/I]

Although euro’s rally from yesterday’s fresh near 1-year low at 1.3152 (Asia) to 1.3210 in New York signals mid-term downtrend from May’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has made a temporary low there, reckon 1.3220/24 would limit upside and bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.3120/30 after consolidation.
However, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.3105 today and risk a ‘much-needed’ minor correction later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3220/24 would shift risk to upside for stronger retracement towards 1.3261 but resistance at 1.3296 should remain intact.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3129[/B]

Update Time: [B]01 Sep 2014[/B] [I]01:00 GMT[/I]

Euro’s intra-day breach of last Friday’s fresh near 1-year low at 1.3132 after ECB’s Coeure’s dovish comments on Reuters Saturday signals mid-term downtrend from May’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has resumed and further weakness to daily objective at 1.3105 and then 1.3060/70 would be seen before correction occurs due to ‘loss of momentum’.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3160 would indicate a temporarily low has been made and risk retracement towards 1.3196 but last week top at 1.3221 should remain intact.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.2925[/B]

Update Time: [B]12 Sep 2014[/B] [I]01:04 GMT[/I]

Euro’s rebound after Wednesday’s retreat from 1.2963 to 1.2883 suggests a few days of consolidation above Tuesday’s fresh 14-month trough at 1.2860 would be seen, however, reckon daily res at 1.2990 (last Friday’s high) would hold and another decline is envisaged later.

Below 1.2860 would signal mid-term downtrend from 1.3995 (July) has once again resumed and bring further weakness to 1.2839 and then possibly towards 1.2800. On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2990 would yield stronger retracement to 1.3030/40 before down.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD [/B]- 1.2848
Update Time: [B]22 Sep 2014[/B] [I]00:54 GMT[/I]

Euro’s sell off to a fresh 14-month trough of 1.2829 Friday and then marginally to 1.2826 in Australia today signals mid-term downtrend from May’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has once again resumed and further weakness to 1.2772 would be seen after consolidation.
However, ‘loss of momentum’ should keep price above 1.2745 today and risk correction later.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.2831 (last Thursday’s high) would abort daily bearishness and yield stronger gain to 1.2880/90.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK (EUR/USD)
17 Dec 2014 [I]04:37 GMT[/I]

EUR/USD [/B]: The single currency rallied on Tuesday due to the release of as upbeat German and eurozone economic data.
Price ratcheted higher from Australian low at 1.2434 to a fresh near 1-month peak at 1.2570 before retreating to 1.2478 in NY on renewed broad-based strength in dollar.
Aforesaid upmove confirms erratic up move from last Monday’s 27-month trough at 1.2247 to retrace medium-term downtrend has resumed and further gain to 1.2607 resistance is likely before prospect of a strong retreat later.

On the downside, only a breach of 1.2415 support would confirm the corrective upmove has ended instead and yield weakness to 1.2370.

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Update Time: [B]24 Dec 2014[/B] [I]08:00 GMT[/I]

[B]DAILY OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD[/B]

Yesterday’s anticipated sell off to 1.2165 suggests MT downtrend from 1.3995 (May) remains in progress n further weakness to proj. target at 1.2146 is likely, however, ‘loss of momentum’ should limit downside to 1.2100 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

Sell again on recovery with stop as indicated and only above 1.2272 (Monday's high) signals low is made.
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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK (EUR/USD) [/B]
Update Time: [B]19 Jan 2015[/B] [I]02:31 GMT[/I]

The single currency tumbled to a fresh 11-year low at 1.1460 on Friday on speculation that ECB’s president Mario Draghi will announce a 550 billion-euro ($635 billion) bond-purchase program this week.
However, short-covering in New York lifted the pair to 1.1589, suggesting further choppy consolidation would be seen.
On the upside, as long as 1.1648 resistance remains intact, bearishness remains for a retreat to 1.1500/10 but said temporary low at 1.1460 should hold from here.

Looking ahead, a breach of 1.1460 would extend weakness to 1.1400 and later 1.1350/57 before prospect of a much-needed correction later.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK [/B]
Update Time: [B]20 Jan 2015[/B] [I]04:34 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] -1.1590
Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 1.1639 on short-covering, renewed selling below previous res at 1.1649 capped euro’s upside.
The single currency fell again to 1.1573 in Asian morning on renewed speculation that ECB’s president Mario Draghi will announce a 550 billion-euro ($635 billion) bond-purchase program on 22 Jan, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1540/50 and possibly towards, however, aforesaid low at 1.1460 should hold from here.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1649 resistance would bring stronger correction of medium-term downtrend to 1.1700.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jan 2015[/B] [I]03:46GMT [/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... With the major market event of ECB massive bond purchase announcement out of the way, the next focus is this Sun's Greek election.

Bloomberg reported the ECB set limits on accessing its bond-buying program that will exclude Greece for at least 6 months, raising pressure on whichever party wins Jan. 25 elections to heed the demands of official creditors.

The ECB decision locks Greece out of the QE program until policy questions raised by the vote have been resolved. Foremost among them is the strategy of Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party is leading PM Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy in polls after he pledged to wring substantial concessions from the so-called troika of creditors.

Also reported were 2 separate surveys by the Alco and Rass polling companies published Wed in Athens showed a lead of as much as 4.9 percentage points for anti-bailout Syriza party over the premier’s New Democracy party.

Greece’s next gov’t will have to decide on extending the international bailout program that expires at the end of Feb, with the country set to run out of cash by the end of Jun at the latest. While voters are attracted by a Syriza platform which includes opposing the terms attached to the aid, investors have been spooked by the implications of a potential Tsipras victory.

The two polls by Rass n Alco gave Syriza 31.2% n 32% respectively, compared with 27% n 27.1% for New Democracy. That suggests that even if Tsipras wins, he won’t have enough lawmakers for a majority in Greece’s 300-seat chamber.

Earlier the single currency nose-dived from 1.1651 to a fresh 11-year low at 1.1316 on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt yesterday the central bank will buy 60 billion euros ($68 billion) a month of public and private debt until September 2016. Although short-covering bids above psychological level at 1.1300 provided brief support to euro, renewed selling at 1.1380 and more at 1.1400 shud cap euro’s upside and yield another sell off later.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops were located at 1.1800.

Market focus may shift to the upcoming election of Greece on Jan. 25 as ECB’s president Mario Draghi said on Thursday that Greece will be ineligible for the ECB’s 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.3 trillion) program until at least July because of limits on how much debt the central bank buys from a single issuer.

The European Central Bank set limits on accessing its bond-buying program that will exclude Greece for at least six months, raising pressure on whichever party wins Jan. 25 elections to heed the demands of official creditors.

According to a statement on the ECB’s website, Greece must also complete a stalled review of its current bail out, as purchases from program countries will be suspended during such assessments.

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Update Time: [B]30 Jan 2015[/B] [I]09:37 GMT[/I]
[B]DAILY OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD[/B] - 1.1310

Although euro has staged a strong rebound from 1.1262 to 1.1368, as long as 1.1383 res holds, another leg of decline from Tuesday’s high of 1.1423 to retrace corrective rise from Monday’s 11-yr low at 1.1098 would take place and yield re-test of said sup, below, 1.1224.

Sell on recovery with stop as indicated, break would signal pullback from 1.1423 is over, 1.1423.

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DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Feb 2015 23:53GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Turning up

21 HR EMA
1.1422

55 HR EMA
1.1374

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
70

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Res
1.1651 - Jan 22 high
1.1587 - 100% proj. of 1.1098-1.1423 fm 1.1262
1.1534 - Y’day’s high

Support
1.1423 - Last Tue’s high, now sup
1.1368 - Last Thur’s high, now sup
1.1313 - Y’day’s low

. EUR/USD - 1.1467… Despite euro’s sideways trading in Tue’s Asia n European morning, hope for a breakthrough on recent standoff between the new Greek anti-bailout gov’t n its international creditors lifted the euro n triggered a ferocious rally to 1.1534 once previous top at 1.1423 was penetrated.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, euro’s rally abv last week’s top at 1.1423 (now sup) confirms the LT downtrend fm 1.6040 (2008 record high) has formed a temporary low at last Mon’s 11-year trough at 1.1098 n correction to 1.1587 is envisaged after consolidation, this is 100% projection of 1.1098-1.1423 measured fm 1.1262, however, as hourly oscillators wud be o/bot territory on such a move, reckon price wud falter below 1.1676/1.1680, being 50% r of 1.2254-1.1098 n daily res n yield retreat later this week. On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1423 wud indicate a top is possibly made n shift risk to downside for weakness twd 1.13662/68 but sup at 1.1262 shud remain intact.

. Today, intra-day retreat suggests initial consolidation is in store, however, as present price is abv both 21-he n 55-hr emas, buying euro on dips for further marginal gain to indicated upside target is favoured.

800×600

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]26 Feb 2015[/B][I] 02:35 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- 1.1365
The single currency rebounded fm Tuesday’s low at 1.1289 to 1.1388 on Wednesday on short-covering, suggesting further choppy trading inside recent established broad range of 1.1543-1.1270 would be seen with neutral bias.
Above 1.1400 may bring gain to 1.1450, however, resistance at 1.1499 should cap upside.

On the downside, a breach of key daily support at 1.1270 would confirm the corrective rise from Jan’s 11-year trough at 1.1098 has indeed ended at 1.1534 and yield retreat to 1.1224 and then 1.1200.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]10 Mar 2015[/B] [I]01:45 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - 1.0832
Despite euro’s brief rebound from Monday’s fresh 11-1/2 year low at 1.0823 to 1.0907 in Europe on short-covering, as renewed selling pressured price again, suggesting recent downtrend would resume after minor consolidation, yield re-test of said support, below would extend weakness towards projected downside target at 1.0752 later.

On the upside, only a breach of 1.0907 would signal temporary low is made and bring stronger rebound to 1.0929 and 1.0988.

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[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.0615[/B]
Update Time: [B]13 Mar 2015[/B] [I]00:56 GMT[/I]

Despite euro’s marginal weakness to a fresh 12-year trough at 1.0494 in Asia on Thursday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.0643 in European morning on active short-covering and then a brief jump to 1.0684 on release of weak U.S. retail sales signals mid-term downtrend has made a temporary low there and a long-overdue correction towards 1.0700 level is envisaged.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0556 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate above mentioned recovery is over instead and yield re-test of 1.0494, break, 1.0430/40.