AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]29 Aug 2017[/B] [I]05:35 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1968
Euro’s intra-day marginal gain above Monday’s fresh 30-mnth peak at 1.1983 to 1.1985 in Australia due to selloff in usd/jpy suggests price would extend recent upmove towards ‘psychological’ level at 1.2000 after consolidation.
However, loss of upward momentum would prevent strong rise and reckon 1.2030/35 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 1.1918 would indicate temporary top has been made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1880/90 later before prospect of a rebound.
Pay attention to release of German Gfk consumer confidence at European open and then later France’s consumer spending and Q2 GDP.
AceTraderFx Aug 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]31 Aug 2017[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1895
Yesterday’s break of 1.1947 sup to 1.1881 after upbeat U.S. eco. data confirms euro’s recent strong uptrend has made a top at Tuesday’s fresh 30-month peak at 1.2070 and as long as 1.1947 holds, stronger retracement towards 1.1823/28 would be seen later today or tomorrow.
Only a daily close above 1.1947 signals 1st leg of correction is over and risk stronger recovery to 1.1984/86 before prospect of another fall.
[B]Data to be released on Thursday: [/B]
Japan industrial production, construction orders, housing starts, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia HIA new home sales, capital expenditure, building capex, New Zealand ANZ business confidence, ANZ activity outlook.
U.K. GFK consumer confidence, France producer prices, CPI, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, CPI(EU Norm), Germany retail sales, unemployment rate, unemployment change, EU unemployment rate, CPI.
Canada GDP, and U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, initial jobless claims, Dallas Fed PCE, Chicago PMI, pending home sales.
AceTraderFx Sept 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time:[B] 01 Sep 2017[/B] [I]05:10 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.0909
Despite yesterday’s resumption of decline from Tuesday’s fresh 30-month peak at 1.3070 to 1.1824 at New York open, subsequent strong rebound after soft U.S. data and Treasury yields suggests 1st leg of correction is over and choppy sideways swings are seen ahead of release of key U.S. jobs report.
As long as res at 1.1984 holds, downside bias remains for re-test of 1.1824 but reckon 1.1774 sup would contain weakness and only above 1.1984 may risk stronger retracement to 1.2000/10 before another fall next week.
[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]
New Zealand terms of trade index, Australia AIG manufacturing index, Japan business Capex, Nikkei manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, GDP, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, , U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, ISM prices paid, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time:[B] 04 Sep 2017[/B] [I]05:10GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1883
Despite euro’s brief jump to 1.1979 after soft U.S. jobs data last Friday, subsequent strong retreat to 1.1850 in New York session suggests recovery from 1.1824 (Thursday) has ended there and choppy swings are in store with downside bias, below 1.1824 would extend decline from last week’s fresh 30-month peak at 1.2070 to 1.1780/90.
Only above 1.1947 would prolong choppy trading and may risk stronger gain to 1.1974/79 before prospect of another fall.
[B]Data to be released today: [/B]
Australia ANZ job ads, EU sentix index, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, Canada market holiday and U.S. market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]11 Aug 2017[/B] [I]05:05 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.2013
Despite euro’s resumption of its recent uptrend to a fresh 10-1/2 month peak at 1.2093 ahead of European open last Friday, subsequent strong retreat to 1.3016 in New York, then intra-day marginal weakness below this sup suggests temporary top has been made, a firm break of 1.2000 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1985 but reckon 1.1930 would hold.
Only above 1.2060/70 signals pullback is over and brings re-test of 1.2093, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.2140/50.
[B]Data to be released today: [/B]
Japan trade balance, machinery orders, tertiary industry index, Italy industrial output, and Canada housing starts on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]13 Aug 2017[/B] [I]05:20 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1978
Despite yesterday’s resumption of recent decline from last Fri’s fresh 30-month peak at 1.2093 to 1.1927, subsequent rebound to 1.1973 in New York, then intra-day break of this level suggests said fall has made a temporary low n 1-2 days of choppy consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, however, res at 1.2029 should cap present gain.
On the downside, below 1.1947/48 sup would yield one more fall, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above minor sup at 1.0903.
[B]
Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]
Japan corp goods price, Australia consumer sentiment, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, avg wk earnings, EU employment, industrial production, and U.S. MBA mortgage app, PPI.
AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Aug 2017 05:20 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1880
Although yesterday’s break of Tuesday’s 1.1927 low (now res) to 1.1874 due to renewed usd’s broad-based gain confirms decline from last Fri’s fresh 30-month peak at 1.2093 has resumed, near term loss of downward momentum would prevent steep fall and reckon sup at 1.1824 should hold and bring rebound.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1927 signals 1st leg of correction is over and brings a much-needed recovery towards 1.1965 but res at 1.1995 should cap euro’s upside.
France will release CPI data n then the same from Italy during European morning.
Pay attention to speech by ECB Board member and Buba President Weidmann at 15:30GMT and then ECB Board member Mersch at 16:00GMT.
ECB’s Smets and Jazbec will also speak at conference on Macroprudential Policies later today.
AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]18 Sept 2017[/B] [I]05:00 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1947
Euro’s anticipated rally to 1.1988 last Fri confirms 1st leg of correction from September’s 30-month peak at 1.2093 has ended earlier at 1.1839 (Thur) and subsequent retreat would bring consolidation before marginal gain to 1.1995, near term ‘loss of momentum’ would cap price below res at 1.2029.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1902 sup suggests said corrective rise has ended and bring weakness to 1.1867, then re-test of 1.1839.
A small handful of eco. data is due out during European morning starting with Italy’s trade balance n EU CPI data.
ECB Board member Sabine Lautenschlager is participating in panel at a conference called “Supervisory policy implementation in the current macro-financial environment: a cross-sectoral journey,” in Basel, Switzerland at 14:30 GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]25 Sept 2017[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1930
Despite euro’s gain to 1.2005 in Europe last Friday, subsequent weakness to 1.1938 in New York, then intra-day gap down to 1.1897 after Sunday’s inconclusive election win by Germany’s Merkel suggests price would continue to ‘gyrate’ inside recent 1.1839-1.2034 broad range.
As long as 1.2005 holds, downside bias remains for subsequent weakness towards last week’s low at 1.1862 and only above 1.2005 risks possible re-test of 1.2034 later.
[B]Data to be released today: [/B]
Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, leading indicator, coincident indicator.
Germany IFO business climate, IFO current conditions, IFO expectations.
U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.
AceTraderFx Oct 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]03 Oct 2017[/B] [I]05:5 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1711
Euro’s intra-day anticipated break of last Wed’s 5-week trough at 1.1718 confirms recent fall from September’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2093 has once again resumed, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent steep fall and reckon 1.1663 (August low) would contain weakness, bring correction later today or tomorrow.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1763 would be the 1st signal temporary low is made and yield retracement to 1.1800/10.
As Sun’s Catalan referendum for independence from Spain is seen by market as risk for the EU following media report the Catalan Parliament will hold meeting today to decide whether to issue a declaration of independence or not, euro is therefore expected to remain under pressure in Europe, so selling the single currency is favoured.
Eco. data calendar is very light with EU PPI being the only data due out.
AceTraderFx Oct 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]06 Oct 2017[/B] [I]06:00 GMT[/I]
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
EUR/USD - 1.1709
Yesterday’s intra-day selloff to 1.1700 in New York suggests re-test of Wednesday’s 5-week trough at 1.1697 would be forthcoming soon where a break there would extend recent decline from September’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2093 towards 1.163 (August low), loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1610/15.
On the upside, only above 1.1788 would risk stronger correction of aforesaid fall towards 1.1833 before prospect of another decline next week.
[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]
China market holiday, Japan coincident indicator, leading indicator.
Germany industrial orders, France current account, U.K. Halifax house price, Italy retail sales.
Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]12 Oct 2017[/B] [I]05:25 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1859
Euro’s resumption of upmove from last Fri’s near 7-week bottom at 1.1670 and then yesterday’s daily close above res at 1.1833 suggests early correction from 1.2093 (September) has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1931 (61.8% r from 1.2093) today.
On the downside, only below 1.1796 sup signals temporary top is made, however, reckon 1.1763 sup would contain weakness.
On the eco. data front, France will release CPI, then EU’s industrial production. Pay attention to speeches by a line of ECB officials who are attending several conferences in Washington D.C. ECB’s Draghi will speak at 14:30GMT, then ECB’s Praet at the same time (diff. venue), ECB’s Coeure at 19:45GMT n then ECB’s Lautenschlager at 20:10GMT.
The 2017 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund will take place between Oct 13-15 in Washington, D.C., so expect lots of breaking news on comments by various senior officials.
AceTraderFx Oct 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]13 Oct 2017[/B] [I]05:25 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1842
Although euro’s intra-day cable-led retreat from yesterday’s fresh 2-week high of 1.1880 to 1.1828 (NY), then 1.1826 today confirms near term upmove from Oct’s near 7-week bottom at 1.1760 has made a temporary top and consolidation is in store ahead of U.S. inflation data, as long as 1.1796/02 sup area holds, upside bias remains but reckon 1.1936 would cap this week’s gain.
A daily close below 1.1796 confirms 1st leg of upmove is over and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1740/50 before rebound.
[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]
Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, Italy CPI.
U.S. CPI, real weekly earnings, retail sales, retail control, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]19 Oct 2017[/B] [I]05:55 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1804
Despite yesterday’s resumption of decline from last week’s high at 1.1880 to 1.1730 in Europe, subsequent strong bounce to 1.1805 in NY session due to broad-based usd’s profit taking and intra-day gain to 1.1817 in Asia suggests said fall has end ed and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 1.1852.
On the downside, only below 1.1760 would dampen bullish view and may risk weakness towards 1.1730.
No euro area eco. data is due out but European Council meeting is on where U.K. PM May will present to EU leaders to a break a deadlock in recent Brexit talks.
AceTraderFx Oct 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]26 Oct 2017[/B] [I]05:25 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1757
Euro’s brief break of last week’s 1.1730 low to 1.1726 due to continued political concerns in Catalonia/Spain suggests recent decline from Oct’s 1.1880 high may pressure price to 1.1700 after consolidation, reckon key sup area at 1.1762/70 would contain weakness and brig rebound.
A daily close above 1.1800 would signal low has been made, then euro may ratchet higher back towards 1.1858 later this week.
Pay attention to release of Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence, then Itay’s business confidence n consumer confidence. ECB’s rate decision will be announced at 11:45GMT and ECB President Draghi’s blockbuster post-ECB press conference is at 12:30GMT (so we can ignore 12:30GMT U.S. data).
AceTraderFx Oct 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]27 Oct 2017[/B] [I]06:25 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1637
Euro’s selloff from 1.1837 (Europe) to a 3-month trough of 1.1641 (New York) yesterday after ECB extended its APP confirms recent decline from 2017 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2093 (September) has once again resumed and price is en route towards next psychological downside target at 1.1500 next week.
Expect 1.1726 (previous sup, now res) to hold for this move and only above would risk stronger retracement to 1.1775/85 before prospect of another fall.
Euro area countries will release some eco. data starting with Germany’s import price index and France’s consumer confidence. ECB’s Chief Economist Praet will speak at 07:15GMT and then ECB’s Angeloni at 10:45GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]31 Oct 2017[/B] [I]05:32 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1640
Although yesterday’s gain to 1.1658 due to broad-based usd’s weakness on U.S. political concerns suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at last Friday’s fresh 3-month bottom at 1.1575, as long as 1.1670 (previous sup, now res) holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.1594/98 would signal correction over and yield re-test of 1.1575.
Only a daily close above 1.1670 may risk stronger retracement to 1.1700, then 1.1726/30.
German financial markets are closed for Reformation Day holiday but France will release preliminary GDP, consumer spending, CPI and PPI, Italy will release CPI, then EU’s CPI, GDP, unemployment, ECB growth forecast and finally Italy will release PPI.
AceTraderFx Nov 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]02 Nov 2017[/B] [I]09:22 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1635
Despite euro’s intra-day sideways swings following early retreat from 1.1661 (Tuesday) to 1.1607 in New York yesterday, as this move signals correction from last Friday’s 3-month bottom at 1.1575 has possibly ended, consolidation is seen before recent downtrend resumes tomorrow, below 1.1604/07 would extend weakness to 1.1540/50, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1512.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1670 (previous sup, now res) would risk stronger retracement to 1.1600 but 1.1726/30 should remain intact.
[B]Data to be released on Thursday: [/B]
Australia trade balance, imports, exports, building permits, Japan consumer confidence.
Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit construction PMI, Bank of England MPC vote hike, Bank of England MPC vote unchanged, Bank of England MPC vote cut, Bank of England interest rate decision, Bank of England QE total, Bank of England QE corporation bond purchases.
U.S. initial jobless claims, nonfarm productivity, ISM New York index.
[B]AceTraderFx Nov 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD [/B]
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]03 Nov 2017[/B] [I]05:20 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1658
Despite euro’s intra-day wild swings after hitting a 3-month trough of 1.1575 last week, as long as 1.1690/00 holds, medium-term decline from 1.2093 (September) is likely to resume if today’s U.S. jobs data beats forecast, below 1.1607 would yield subsequent weakness to 1.1540/50 but 1.1512 should hold.
A daily close above 1.1700 would risk stronger retracement of aforesaid decline and risks gain to 1.1726/30, break there may head towards 1.1773 next week.
No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, so everyone is waiting or the U.S. jobs report. ECB Board member Nowotny will deliver a speech in London at 10:30GMT and much later today at 20:15, ECB’s Coeure will speak at a conference in Washington at 20:15GMT.
[B]AceTraderFx Nov 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD [/B]
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B]06 Nov 2017[/B] [I]05:20 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1614
Euro’s intra-day selloff from post-NFP at 1.1691 to 1.1600 in New York session last Friday signals correction from October’s 3-month bottom at 1.1575 has ended there, however, intra-day rebound from 1.1597 would bring minor sideways swings before medium-term decline heads to 1.1540/50, loss of near term downward momentum would keep price above 1.1512.
Only above 1.1640/50 prolongs choppy consolidation and may risk another rise to 1.1670/80.
Today is PMI day in the eruo zone, Germany will release industrial orders, then Italy’s services PMI, the same from Germany, then the EU, EU’s Sentix investor confidence n PPI.
The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels today, ECB’s Draghi, Nouy, Coeure will participate this meeting. ECB Chief Economist Praet will speak at at conference in Frankfurt at 08:00GMT and later at 18:00GMT, ECB’s Mersch will speak in Slovenia.