AceTraderFx July 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 July 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1777
As euro’s intraday wild swings after ECB’s dovish hold has ended with price falling from 1.1830 to 1.1758, re-test of Wednesday’s 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1753 would be seen, however, loss of downward momentum may keep price above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) today and risk has increased for a correction to occur next week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1830 would bring stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.1850.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Germany’s n EU’s mfg n services PMIs, weaker-than-expected readings would trigger another round of euro bashing.
AceTraderFx July 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 July 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1770
Euro’s selloff from 1.1830 (Thursday) to 1.1755 on Friday suggests re-test of Wednesday’s fresh 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1753 would be seen, break there would extend recent erratic decline towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) but ‘loss of downward momentum’ may keep price above there.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1804 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways trading and may risk another rise towards 1.1830.
Market’s attention is release of Germany’s key Ifo data, keep an eye out on Jul’s business climate n current expectations.
AceTraderFx July 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 July 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0808
Although euro’s fall from 1.1830 (Thursday) to 1.1755 on Friday suggests correction from July’s 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1753 has ended, Monday’s stronger-than-expected rebound due to broad-based usd’s weakness would bring further choppy swings ahead of Wed’s Fed’s monetary policy decision.
As long as 1.1830 holds, downside bias remains for re-test of 1.1753, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 2021 bottom at 1.1705.
Only a daily close above 1.1830 risks stronger retracement to 1.1880/90 before prospect of decline later
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Italy trade balance.
U.S. durables goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 July 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1817
Although yesterday’s brief break of last week’s 1.1830 high to 1.1841 in New York due to broad-based usd’s weakness suggests recent decline has made a temporary bottom at 1.1753 last week, subsequent retreat would bring consolidation ahead of key FOMC’s announcement, below 1.1171 signals correction over and yields re-test of 1.1753, then later towards 2021 trough at 1.1705.
A daily close above 1.1841 (Fed’s dovish hold perhaps) would risk stronger gain to 1.1880/90 later.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia CPI, Japan coincident index, leading indicator,
U.K. BRC shop price index, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application good trade balance, wholesale inventories, Fed interest rate decision and Canada CPI.
AceTraderFx July 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 July 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1843
Euro’s intra-day jump from 1.1773 to 1.1849 in post-FOMC Wed after Fed’s dovish hold suggests recent erratic rise from July’s 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1773 would yield further gain after consolidation, overbought condition would cap price below res at 1.1894 and yield retreat later.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1771/73.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand NBNA business outlook, NBNZ outlook activity, Australia export prices, import prices, U.K. nationwide house price, France producer prices Germany unemployment change, Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, pending house sales and Canada average weekly earnings.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1771/73.
AceTraderFx July 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 July 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1884
Euro’s rally in post-FOMC Wed to as high as 1.1892 yesterday confirms recent decline from 1.2266 (May) has made a low in mid-Jul at 1.1753 and as long as 1.1830 (last week’s high, now sup) holds, further gain is envisaged after consolidation, however, near term loss of upward momentum would liimit upside to 1.1940/44 today.
Only a daily close below 1.1830 indicates temporary top is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1800/05.
On the data front, euro aea countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to CPI and GDP data.
AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1868
Euro’s decline from 1.1909 Fri’s 1-month high of to 1.1852 New York after upbeat U.S. data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement of early rise from 1.1753, reckon 1.1773 sup would hold and yield rebound.
Only above 1.1909 risks one more rise but loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.1940/44 and yield another decline.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Germany’s n EU’s Markit PMI, a weaker-than-expected number will weigh on the euro.
AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1878
Yesterday’s retreat from 1.1896 suggests further sideways swings below Friday’s 1-month peak at 1.1909 would continue with downside bias, below 1.1852 (reaction low Friday) confirms recent upmove from 1.1753 (July low) has made a temporary top and brings stronger retracement, reckon 1.1800/05 would remain intact.
Only above 1.1909 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.1940/44 and yield decline later.
Eco. calendar is pretty light with EU’s PPI being the only data due out at 09:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Aug 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1866
Although euro’s daily choppy sideways swings following early retreat from Friday’s 1-month high of 1.1909 to 1.1852 would continue, downside bias remains and below 1.1852 would bring stronger retracement of early upmove from July’s 1.1753 bottom to 1.1800/10 later this week.
Only above 1.1909 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.1944 and yield decline.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries (pls refer to EI page for detials), pay attention to German n EU’s Markit services PMI, a lower-than-expected reading would weigh on euro.
AceTraderFx Aug 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1836
As euro’s intra-day ‘wild’ swings in New York session had ended with price falling sharply from 1.1899 to 1.1834 on hawkish comments by Fed’s Vice Chair Clarida, suggesting early correction from July’s 1.1753 bottom has possibly ended at 1.1909 (Friday), a daily close below 1.1800 would add credence to this view, 1.1771/73 later.
Only a move above 1.1899 risks one more rise, however, ‘loss of upward momentum’ should cap price below 1.1944 ahead of Fri’s key U.S. jobs report.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
Germany industrial orders, France industrial output, U.K. Markit construction PMI, BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC Vote Cut.
U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Canada trade balance, exports and imports.
AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1826
Despite moving in relatively narrow range on Thursday, euro’s weakness to 1.1829 (Europe), then intra-day break there suggests early correction from July’s 1.1753 bottom has possibly ended last week at 1.1909 (Friday), a daily close below 1.1800 (upbeat U.S. jobs report perhaps) would add credence to this view and bring re-test of 1.1753.
Only above this week’s 1.1899 high (Wednesday) shifts risks to upside for re-test of 1.1909, break would extend said corrective upmove to 1.1940/44.
On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of economic data in European morning, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Aug 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1753
Euro’s selloff on Fri to 1.1754 after upbeat U.S. jobs report suggests re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) would be seen after consolidation, oversold condition would prevent steep fall and reckon 1.1655/65 should remain intact.
Only above 1.1800 signals temporary low is in place and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1829.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with exports, imports, trade balance n current account, then EU’s Sentix investor sentiment.
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1737
Yesterday’s resumption of recent decline to a fresh 4-month trough of 1.1736 (New York) suggests re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) is in the cards, however, break there needed to retain bearishness for further weakness towards next daily objective at 1.1603 later this week.
On above Monday’s 1.1768 high signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1808/18.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, Australia NAC business conditions, NAC business confidence.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
Canada leading index, U.S. labor costs, productivity and redbook retail sales.
AceTraderFx Aug 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1718
Euro’s resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month trough of 1.1710 (New York) suggests price would briefly penetrate 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March), however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1650/55 and risk has increased for a minor correction to occur later this week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1742 signals temporary low is in place and yields stronger retracement to 1.1768 but 1.1808 should cap upside.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machine tool orders, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI and Federal Budget.
AceTraderFx Aug 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1741
Despite resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month low of 1.1707 (Europe), subsequent rebound to 1.1753 due to broad-based long liquidation in usd after in-line U.S. CPI data suggests temporary bottom is made and consolidation is seen before re-test of 2021 trough at 1.1705, loss of momentum would limit weakness to 1.1675/85.
Only a daily close above 1.1768 res will risks stronger correction to 1.1819/29 later.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, inflation forecast, Japan corporate goods price, Australia consumer inflation
U.K. RICS housing price balance, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, Italy trade balance, EU industrial production, U.S. jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and PPI.
AceTraderFx Aug 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1736
Despite euro’s narrow move in subdued Thursday’s session following rebound from Wednesday’s fresh 4-month trough at 1.1707 to 1.1753, outlook remains bearish for re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1705, loss of momentum should keep price above projected sup at 1.1653.
Only a daily close above 1.1768 (Monday’s high) dampens bearish outlook and risks stronger correction to 1.1819/29 early next week.
On the data front, euro are countries will release a slew of second-tier eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Aug 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1795
Fri’s rally above previous res at 1.1768 to 1.1804 in New York due to broad-based usd’s weakness after downbeat U.S. consumer confidence suggests medium-term downtrend has made a low at Wed’s fresh 4-month bottom at 1.1707 and further gain is envisaged after consolidation, overbought condition would cap price at 1.1857.
Only a daily close below 1.1768 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk decline towards 1.1724.
Data to be released next week :
Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization, industrial output, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales.
U.K. Rightmove house price.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, Canada manufacturing sales and wholesale trade on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1776
Although euro’s rebound from last Wed’s 4-month trough at 1.1707 to 1.0804 (Friday) suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, Monday’s sideways swings would bring further consolidation before one more rise, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1857.
A daily close below 1.1753 signals correction is over and risks weakness to 1.1724, break, 1.1707 again.
The euro zone will release a slew of eco. data at 09:00GMT including Q2 GDP, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Aug 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1709
Euro’s intra-day brief break of previous 2021 low at 1.1705 to 1.1703 in Australia suggests medium-term downtrend would resume after minor consolidation and a daily close below 1.1700 handle would pave the way for price to head towards next chart objective at 1.1603 (2020 November low).
Only above 1.1761 indicates temporary low is in place and may risk stronger correction to 1.1790/00 later this week.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand PPI inputs, PPI outputs, RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, wage price index.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, DCLG house price index, EU HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, housing starts and Canada CPI.
AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1688
Despite euro’s short-covering jump to 1.1742 in New York Wednesday after release of less hawkish Fed minutes, intra-day break of Wednesday’s 10-month trough at 1.1695 confirms medium-term downtrend has once again resumed, however, reckon daily sup at 1.1603 would remain intact this week and bring minor correction next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1742 signals temporary bottom is in place and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1784.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, industrial production, EU current account.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading index change and Canada ADP employment change.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major