AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Sept 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1761
Yesterday’s resumption of recent decline from September’s 1.1809 peak to a 2-1/2 week trough of 1.1752 in New York after a huge upbeat beat in U.S. retail sales and rally in U.S. yields suggest said move would resume after range trading, near term loss of downward momentum would keep euro above 1.1696/00 today.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1800 signals temporary low is in place, then risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement to 1.1845/50 next week.
EU will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
We also have ECB board member de Cos scheduled to speak at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Sept 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1727
Euro’s selloff to a 3-1/2 week low of 1.1725 in New York on Friday due to continued usd’s strength on rising U.S. yields suggests early correction from August’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 1.1664 has ended and re-test of this key support in envisaged later this week, today, reckon downside is limited to 1.1690/00.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1788 (Friday high) signals temporary rough is in place but reckon 1.1810/20 would cap upside.
On the data front, we have German producer prices n German Bundesbank monthly report.
AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Sept 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1729
Although euro’s rebound from Monday’s near 4-week low at 1.1701 to 1.1736 on short covering suggests recent decline has made a temporary bottom, as long as 1.1752 (previous sup, now res) holds, downside bias remains for marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 2021 bottom at 1.1664.
Only a daily close above 1.1752 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1788 but 1.1800 should cap upside.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence, New Zealand GDT price, China market holiday.
U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, U.K. CBI trends orders.
U.S. current account, building permits, hosing starts, redbook, Canada new housing price inde.
AceTraderFx Sept 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Sept 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1688
Euro’s intra-day selloff from 1.1755 to 1.1685 in post-FOMC New York after Fed’s hawkish tilt suggests re-test of August’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 1.1664 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon daily sup at 1.1603 should hold from here and bring minor correction on Friday.
On the upside, only above 1.1755 confirms temporary low is in place and heads back towards 1.1788 but reckon 1.1800 should cap upside.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan market holiday.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss SNB rate decision, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPV vote cut.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Leading index change, KC Fed manufacturing and Canada retail sales.
AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Sept 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1744
Euro’s rebound from Thursday’s 4-week trough at 1.1684 in Asia to as high as 1.1750 signals recent decline from September’s 1.1908 peak has made a temporary low and consolidation with upside bias is seen, above Wednesday’s post-FOMC high at 1.1755 would bring stronger retracement but reckon 1.1800 would cap upside.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1701 suggests recovery is over, then price would be en route towards 2021 bottom at 1.1664 early next week.
On the data front, Italy will kick off with business n consumer confidence, then pay atttention to German Ofo business climate, current conditions n expectations.
We also have a no. of ECB members scheduled to speak, pls rrefer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Sept 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1722
Friday’s retreat to 1.1701 (New York) suggests recovery from Thursday’s fresh 4-week low at 1.1684 has ended at 1.1750 and subsequent sideways swings would bring consolidation before re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1664.
Only above 1.1750/55 res dampens bearish outlook and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1788 but reckon 1.1800 would cap upside and yield decline.
On the eco. front, we have France’s producer prices, Italy’s trade balance and Germany’s Bundesbank monthly report. ECB President Lagarde will speak before European Parliament at 11:45GMT.
ECB’s Panetta n de Cos will also speak later in the day (please refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Sept 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Sept 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1694
Yesterday’s weakness to 1.1685 (Europe) due to cross-selling in euro suggests correction from Thursday’s 4-week low at 1.1684 has ended at 1.1750 and re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1684 (Aug) is envisaged after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep euro above 1.1620/25.
On the upside, only above Mon’s 1.1727 top prolongs volatile sideways swings from 1.1684 and may risk another bounce to 1.1750/55.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia retail sales.
Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence.
Canada average weekly earnings, U.S. good trade balance, wholesale inventories, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
AceTraderFx Sept 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Sept 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1685
Yesterday’s weakness to a 5-week 1.1668 low suggests re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1664 (August) would be forthcoming next and yield medium-term downtrend, however, loss of downward momentum should keep euro above 1.1603 today and bring a minor correction.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1710 signals temporary low is made and yields stronger recovery, however, reckon res at 1.1750/55 should cap upside.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
U.K. BRC shop price index, nationwide house price, Italy producer prices, Swiss investor sentiment, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, pending home sales, and Canada producer prices.
AceTraderFx Sept 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Sept 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1602
Yesterday’s break of previous 2021 low at 1.1664 (now res) to a 14-month trough of 1.1590 in New York due to broad-based usd’s demand suggests medium-term downtrend has once again resumed and price would head towards next projected target at 1.1536 later today or Friday, oversold condition should keep euro above ‘psychological’ 1.1500 handle.
On the upside, only above 1.1664 confirms temporary bottom is in place, then risk would shift to upside for a stronger retracement to 1.1690/00.
The euro are countries will release a slew of eco. data as well as inflation data n also we have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1607
Although intra-day firm break of 1.1607/10 suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary 14-month trough at 1.1563 and marginal gain can’t be ruled out, near term overbought condition should cap price below 1.164 (previous sup, now res) should hold and yield decline later today or tomorrow.
Below 1.1583/93 anytime signals recovery over, then euro would extend medium-term downtrend towards projected target at 1.1536.
Eco. calenar is pretty light with EU’s Sentix investor sentiment being the only data due out at 08:30GMT.
There is a Eurogroup as well as EcoFin meeting today.
AceTraderFx Oct 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1615
Although yesterday’s rally above previous 1.1607/10 res (now sup) to 1.1640 in New York signals recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Thursday’s 14-month bottom at 1.1563, a daily close above 1.1664 needed to bring stronger retarcement to 1.1690/00 before retreat.
A daily close below 1.1607 signals correction has ended, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.1583/88, break yields re-test of 1.1563 later.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, services PPI, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, Japan Tokyo CPI, China Market Holiday.
France industrial output, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, GDP, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, producer prices, U.K. Markit services PMI.
U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, redbook, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada trace balance, exports, imports and New Zealand GDT price index.
AceTraderFx Oct 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1593
Euro’s decline from 1.1640 (Monday) to 1.1581 yesterday suggests correction from September’s 14-month trough at 1.1563 has ended and medium-term downtrend would head towards projected target at 1.1536 after consolidation.
On the upside, only above 1.1613 prolongs choppy sideways swings and risks re-test of 1.1640, however, reckon 1.1664 (previous sup, now res) would cap upside.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
China market holiday, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision.
Germany industrial orders, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application and ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx Oct 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1556
Euro’s break of Sep’s 1.1563 low (now res) Wednesday to a fresh 14-month 1.1530 low on safe-haven usd buying suggests Medium Term downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) would test 1.1500 handle, break would extend weakness to proj. obj. at 1.1473 before correction occurs.
Trade from short side for this move n only above 1.1581 signals temp. low made, risks 1.1613 later.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia AIG services index, China Market Holiday, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Swiss unemployment rate, U.K. Halifax house prices, Germany industrial output, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1557
Although euro gained respite on Thursday after hitting a fresh 14-month bottom at 1.1530 Wednesday, as 1.1571 has capped recovery, downside bias remains for medium-term downtrend to test psychological 1.1500 handle, however, ‘loss of downward momentum’ is likely to limit weakness to 1.1470/75.
Only a daily close above 1.1571 (soft U.S. jobs report perhaps) risks stronger correction to 1.1613, reckon this week’s high at 1.1640 (Monday) should remain intact.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data n we also have some ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session too, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to speech by ECB President Lagarde when she and U.S. Treasury Yellen will speak at a B20 International Business Summit event in Italy.
AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1573
Despite euro’s brief jump to 1.1585 on Friday after a big miss in U.S. payrolls, lack of follow-through buying and subsequent sideways move suggests as long as said post-NFP high holds, downside bias remains for re-test of last Wed’s fresh 14-month trough at 1.1530, then weakness to ‘psychological’ 1.1500 handle.
Only a daily close above 1.1585 risks stronger retracement of recent downtrend to 1.1613, however, reckon res at 1.1640 should cap upside this week.
Economic calendar is pretty light with Italy’s industrial output being the only data due out.
We have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session (please refer to our EI page for details).
Pay attention to ECB President and ECB’s Panetta who are participating in the IMF/World Bank Group annual meetings.
AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1549
Despite yesterday’s marginal gain above Friday’s post-NFP 1.1585 high to 1.1587 (Europe), subsequent retreat to 1.1550 near Monday’s close suggests correction from last Wednesday’s 14-month bottom at 1.1530 has ended and recent downtrend would head towards psychological 1.1500 handle, ‘loss of downward momentum’ should keep price above 1.1473.
On the upside, only above 1.1587 risks stronger retarcement towards 1.1613 but res at 1.1640 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan corporate goods price, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
U.K. BRC retail sales, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, EU ZEW survey expectations, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, wholesale price index.
Canada leading index, U.S. redbook and JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1592
Euro’s retreat from 1.1624 (Europe) to 1.1585 in New York yesterday suggests early corrective rise from Tuesday’s fresh 14-month trough at 1.1525 has possibly made a top and consolidation with downside bias is in store, a firm break of 1.1585 would add credence to this view and yield re-test of 1.1525 early next week.
Only a daily close above 1.1624 risks stronger retracement of medium-term downtrend to 1.1640, however, reckon 1.1664 would cap upside and yield decline.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, China retail sales, Japan tertiary industry activities.
Germany wholesale price index, France CPI, Italy CPI, trade balance, EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, import prices, export prices, retail sales, business inventories, University of Michigan Sentiment and Canada wholesale trade.
AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
Despite Friday’s sideways swings following early retreat from Thursday’s 9-day high of 1.1624, as long as 1.1575/80 holds, corrective rise from 1.1525 may yield marginal gain, loss of momentum would cap price below 1.1664 and yield decline.
A daily close below 1.1571 signals recovery is over and brings re-test of 1.1525 later.
No economic data is due out from the euro area countries today. We have ECB Board member de Cos scheduled to speak at a financial conference at 09:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1618
Euro’s rebound from Monday’s 1.1572 low suggests re-test of last Thursday’s 1.1624 high would be seen, however, as corrective rise from last Tuesday’s 14-month bottom at 1.1525 is losing momentum, reckon 1.1664 (previous sup, now res) would cap upside and yield decline later today.
A daily close below 1.1572 signals correction is over and heads back towards 1.1525.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU construction output.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook, New Zealand GDT price index.
AceTraderFx Oct 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Oct 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1632
Despite resumption of recent erratic rise from Oct’s 14-month trough at 1.1525 to a near 3-week high of 1.1669 (Europe) yesterday, subsequent retreat on usd’s rebound in tandem with rally in U.S. yields suggests temporary top is possibly made, a daily close below 1.1624 would add credence to this view and heads towards 1.1572.
Only above 1.1669 risks marginal gain, however, loss of momentum would cap price below 1.1700/03.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, China house prices.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, FCLG house price index, Germany producer prices, EU current account, HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application and Canada CPI.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major