AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
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AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 9 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1364
Euro’s rebound to 1.1374 Thursday on usd’s broad-based retreat suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Wednesday’s fresh 16-month trough at 1.1265, as long as res at 1.1385 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.1315 signals recovery over and yields re-test of 1.1265 next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1385 risks stronger retracement to 1.1434/38 on Monday.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, France ILO employment rate, Germany producer prices, Italy industrial sales, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index and retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1282
Despite resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 16-month trough of 1.1250 Fri due to Covid concerns in Europe, subsequent short-coveriing rally to 1.1322 in New York would bring choppy range trading, reckon 1.1350/60 would cap recovery and yield decline.

On the downside, below 1.1265 signals recovery over, however, loss of downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.1220/30 today.

Data to be released today:
EU consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index, existing hole sales on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1243
Euro’s break of last Friday’s 1.1250 low to a fresh 16-month bottom at 1.1231 in New York Monday due to rally in U.S. yields and usd on news of Fed Powell’s renomination suggests medium-term downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) remains in force, however, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1169/74.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1291 signals temporary trough is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1322.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Market Holiday,.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. redbook, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

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AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1244
Despite euro’s marginal weakness to a fresh 16-month trough at 1.1227 in Asia Tuesday, subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.1274 in Europe suggests temporary low is made and as long as 1.1291 res holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for another fall, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1280/85.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1291 confirms temporary bottom is in place and brings stronger retracement to 1.1340/45.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia construction work done, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, New Zealand interest rate decision.
Swiss investor sentiment, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, University of Michigan sentiment and new home sales.

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AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1210
Despite euro’s break of Tuesday’s 1.1227 low to a fresh 16-month trough of 1.1187 in New York Wednesday, subsequent rebound suggests consolidation is in store before downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) resumes, however, near term loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1139.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1227 confirms a temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1260/70.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany GDP, Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada average weekly earnings.

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AceTraderFx Nov 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1217
Although euro’s rebound from Wed’s 16-month trough at 1.1187 to 1.1230 yesterday’s suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1200/05 holds, stronger retracement towards 1.1155 can’t be ruled out, reckon res at 1.1274 should cap upside and yield another fall.

Below 1.1200 would bring re-test of 1.1187, while loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1139 and bring correction on Monday.

The euro area countries will be releasing a slew of eco. data n we also have many ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session, please refer to our EI page for full details. ECB President Lagarde will speak at a legal conference at 08:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1292
Euro’s impressive rally on Fri from 1.1206 to as high as 1.1330 in New York suggests downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) has made a temporary low at Wed’s fresh 16-month 1.1187 bottom and despite intra-day retreat, as long as 1.1255 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for another rise, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.1374 and yield decline.

On the downside, below 1.1255 signals recovery is over and heads back towards 1.1206.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to various EU’s sentiment readings at 10:00GMT. We also have several ECB officials scheduled to speak, pay attention to speeches by ECB Vice President de Guindos at 08:30GMT n later ECB President Lagarde at 17:15GMT.

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AceTraderFx Nov 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1289
Although euro’s retreat on Monday to 1.1259 (New York) suggests 1st leg of correction from last Wednesday’s 16-month trough at 1.1187 has ended at 1.1330, subsequent rebound in New York signals consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1330 would bring stronger retarcement of recent downtrend, however, reckon res at 1.1374 should cap said corrective rise.

A daily close below 1.1255 indicates retracement is over, then price would head back to 1.2206, break, 1.1187 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan unemployment rate, industrial production, construction orders, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Australia building permits, current account, net exports contribution, China NBS manufacturing PMI.
Swiss KOF indicator, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Italy GDP, CPI, Germany unemployment rate, EU HICP.
Canada GDP, U.S. redbook, monthly home price, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Dec 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 01 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1323
Despite euro’s selloff from 1.1382 to 1.1236 in New York on Tuesday after Fed Powell’s hawkish comments, subsequent strong rebound signals further choppy trading above Nov’s 16-month trough at 1.1187 may continue, however, as long as said Tuesday’s high holds, consolidation with downside bias remains.

On the upside, only a daily above 1.1382 risks stronger retracement of recent downtrend but reckon 1.1434 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG manufacturing index, manufacturing PMI, GDP, New Zealand building permits, China caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
U.K. BRC shop price index, nationwide house price, Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, Canada building permits and Markit manufacturing PMI.

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AceTraderFx Dec 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1319
Despite euro’s brief but sharp selloff from 1.1382 to 1.1236 on Tuesday, subsequent rally to 1.1360 yesterday suggests further choppy trading above Nov’s 16-month trough at 1.1187 would continue, however, as long as said Tuesday’s high holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, a daily close below 1.1303 would head back towards 1.1236.

On the upside, only a daily above 1.1382 risks stronger retracement of recent downtrend but reckon res at 1.1434 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia trade balance, imports, exports, Japan consumer confidence.
Swiss retail sales, Italy unemployment rate, EU producer prices, unemployment rate.
U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims.

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AceTraderFx Dec 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1297
Despite euro’s daily choppy sideways swings following early selloff from 1.1382 to 1.1236 on Tuesday, as long as 1.1360 (reaction high Wednesday) holds, consolidation with downside bias remains ahead of key U.S. jobs report later today, below 1.1259 would head back towards 1.1236.

Only above 1.1360 risks re-test of 1.1382 but break there needed to extend corrective rise from November’s 11.1187 bottom to 1.1400/10.

On the data front, we have data dump in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to German n EU’s Markit services PMIs n EU’s retail sales as weaker-than-expected readings would trigger another round of euro selling. ECB President Lagarde will speak at a Reuters conference at 08:30GMT and then at 13:00GMT, ECB Chief Economist Lane is scheduled to speak at a ECB confernce at 13:00GMT

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AceTraderFx Dec 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1293
Despite euro’s intra-day selloff from 1.1333 to 1.1267 in post-NFP New York on Friday, subsequent strong rebound on falling US yields suggests further choppy sideways swings inside recent 1.1382-1.1236 broad range would continue, as long as 1.1350/60 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1267, 1.1236.

On the upside, only above 1.1360 risks re-test of 1.1382 but break there needed to extend corrective rise from Nov’s 1.1187 bottom to 1.1400/10 later this week.

On the data front, we have German industrial orders, then Italy’s retails n EU’s Sentix investors’ sentiment index. There is a Eurogroup meeting in Brissels n ECB President Lagarde n ECB board member Panetta will particiapte in the meeting.

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AceTraderFx Dec 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1280
Yesterday’s erratic fall and then re-test of Friday’s post-NFP low at 1.1267 suggests choppy swings inside recent established broad range of 1.1382-1.1236 would continue with downside bias, however, only below lower level would retain bearishness for weakness to 1.1306 later.

On the upside, only above 1.1333 (Friday high) shifts risk to upside for another rise to 1.1355/60.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia AIG services index, house price index, RBA interest rate decision, Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate.
U.K. Halifax house prices, Germany industrial output, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, EU employment, GDP, ZEW survey expectation.
U.S. international trade balance, labor costs, productivity, redbook, Canada trade balance, exports, imports and Ivey PMI.

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AceTraderFx Dec 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1277
Despite euro’s intra-day selloff from 1.1299 and then a brief break of last week’s 1.1236 low to 1.1229 in New York, lack of follow-through selling and subsequent rebound suggests further choppy swings above November’s 16-month 1.1187 bottom may continue.

On the upside, only above 1.1299 would risk stronger recovery to 1.1320/30 before retreat while below 1.1229 needed to revive bearish prospect of weakness towards 1.1187 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, GDP, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, China exports, imports, trade balance.
France non-farm payrolls, Italy Market Holiday.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, JOLTS job opening and Canada interest rate decision.

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AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1335
Euro’s rally from 1.1268 ahead of European open on Wed to 1.1354 in New York on broad-based usd’s weakness suggests pullback from last week’s 1.1382 high has ended at 1.1229 (Tue) and above 1.1382 would extend early rise from Nov’s 16-month 1.1187 trough twd 1.1434 before retreat due to overbough condition.

On the downside, only below 1.1296/99 signals top is made and risks weakness to 1.1267/68 later.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand manufacturing sales,China PPI, CPI.
U.K. TICS housing price balance, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account,
Canada leading index, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, wholesales inventories and wholesale sales.

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AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1295
Euro’s erratic fall from last week’s 1.1382 high to 1.1229 Tue suggests correction from November’s 1.1187 low has ended and despite rebound to 1.1354 (Wednesday), subsequent fall to 1.1279 yesterday on broad-based usd’s strength signals consolidation with downside bias remains but daily close below 1.1229 needed to bring re-test of 1.1187 next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1354 dampens bearishness and risk would shift to upside for gain towards 1.1382.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. We also have a number of ECB officials schedued to speak today, pay attention to particiaption by ECB Preident Lagarde in a panel discussion at BIS forum at 09:05GMT.

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AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 3 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1308
Last week’s rise from 1.1229 (Tue) to 1.1354 Wednesday and then retreat to 1.1266 on Friday suggests volatile trading ‘inside’ recent 1.1187-1.1382 broad range would continue this week and despite subsequent rally to 1.1324 on renewed usd’ s weakness in New York, as long as 1.1354 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1266.

Only a daily close above 1.1354 shifts risk to upside for stronger gain towards 1.1385.

The eco. calendar is pretty light today with German wholesale price index being the only data due out.
Market is paying attention to Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and then Thursday’s ECB monetary policy announcement, so range trading would continue in next couple of days.

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AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 4 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1281
Euro’s recent daily wild swings are expected to continue until FOMC’s monetary policy announcement on Wed and price would gyrate inside 1.1229-1.1354 range. As long as upper level holds, weakness towards 1.1229 is envisaged, break would head back towards Nov’s 16-month bottom at 1.1187 ‘later’.

Only a daily close above 1.1354 shifts risk to upside for gain toward 1.1382 (reaction high from 1.1187).

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand food price index, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer/import price, EU industrial production.
U.S. PPI and redbook.

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AceTraderFx Dec 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 5 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1267
Despite euro’s rally to 1.1325 in Europe on Tuesday, subsequent break of 1.1261 (Mon) to 1.1254 in New York on broad-based usd’s strength suggests recent daily wild swings are expected to continue inside 1.1229-1.1382 range with downside bias until FOMC’s monetary policy announcement today, below 1.1229 would head back towards 1.1187 (Nov low) later.

Only a daily close above 1.1325 shifts risk to upside for gain toward 1.1354, then 1.1382 (reaction high from 1.1187).

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand current account, Australia consumer sentiment, Westpac leading index, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales, Japan tertiary industry activities, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, Markit manufacturing PMI.
France CPI, Italy CPI, Canada housing starts, CPI, manufacturing sales.
.S. import prices, exports prices, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index and Fed interest rate decision.

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AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 6 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1283
Despite euro’s spike down to a 2-1/2 week 1.1223 low in New York on Fed’s hawkish tilt, subsequent rally to 1.1299 on broad-based usd’s retreat due to profit taking suggests choppy trading above Nov’s 16-month trough at 1.1187 would continue, above 1.1299 would yield further gain to 1.1325/35.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1250/54 signals said recovery has ended and re-test of 1.1223 is seen later.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, Australia manufacturing index, services PMI, employment change, unemployment change, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, China retail sales, France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss SNB interest rate decision, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI,EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, trade balance, labour cost, ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase programme, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchase, BOE MOC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, KC Fed manufacturing, Canada wholesale trade and ADP employment change.