AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

Trading Discussion Currencies
#1053

AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.37
Although dollar’s short covering rally after last Fri’s selloff to a 3-1/2 week trough at 113.49 on active buying in yen signals recent decline from Jan’s 5-year peak at 116.34 has made a temp. low there and range trading is in store, reckon 114.70/75 would hold and yield another fall, below 114.01 would yield re-test of said support later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 114.70 would risk stronger gain towards 115.05, break, 115.25/30.

Data to be released today:
Japan machinery orders, tertiary industry activities, China industrial output, retail sales, GDP.
U.K. Rightmove house price, Italy CPI.
Canada leading index, U.S. Market Holiday and Canada manufacturing sales on Monday.

#1054

AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.73
Despite the greenback’s resumption of recent decline from Dec’s near 5-year peak of 116.34 to a 3-1/2 week trough of 113.49 last Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 114.64 Mon and intra-day break there on BOJ unchanged rate decision suggests correction over and stronger retracement to 115.60/65 is seen.

On the downside, only below 114.26/36 signals said recovery is over and would risk weakness to 113.90/00 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan BOJ interest rate decision, industrial output, capacity utilization, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer/import price, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectation, Canada housing starts, U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing market index and New Zealand GDT price index.

#1055

AceTraderFx Jan 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.41
Despite the greenback’s erratic rise from last Friday’s 3-1/2 week bottom at 113.49 to as high as 115.05 in Asia Tue, subsequent strong retreat to 114.46 in New York on safe-haven yen buying due to global stock weakness and intra-day break there suggests price may head to 114.65/70 before rebound.

On the upside, a daily close above 114.78 (Asia) would yield re-test of 115.05, break, 115.26/30 later.

U.S. will later release of slew of second-tier eco. data, so market will take cue from movement in U.S. yields n equities.

#1056

AceTraderFx Jan 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.34
Despite the greenback’s erratic rise from last Friday’s 3-1/2 week bottom at 113.49 to as high as 115.05 in Asia Tuesday, subsequent strong retreat to 114.46 in New York on safe-haven yen buying due to global stock weakness and intra-day break there suggests price may head to 114.65/70 before rebound.

On the upside, a daily close above 114.78 (Asia) would yield re-test of 115.05, break, 115.26/30 later.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to weekly jobless claims, continued jobless claims n Philly mfg index at 13:30GMT.

#1057

AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.91
The greenback intra-day firm break of 113.97 (Thur) on active yen buying due to risk-off trade suggests recovery from last Fri’s 113.49 has possibly ended at 115.05 Tue and re-test of 113.49 would be forthcoming next, break would extend decline from Jan’s 5-year high at 116.34 towards 113.15, then 112.90/95.

On the upside, only a daily close above 114.22 signals a temporary bottom is in place and stronger retracement to 114.54/55 would be seen next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan nationwide CPI.
U.K. Gkf consumer confidence, retail sales, EU consumer confidence, Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index, retail sales and leading index change.

#1058

AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.69
Although the greenback’s selloff to 113.61 in New York last Fri signals correction from Jan’s 113.49 bottom has possibly ended at 115.05 last Tue, subsequent sideways swings then intra-day rebound would yield consolidation and below 113.49 would extend decline from Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 towards 113.15 later.

On the upside, a daily close above 114.54 would risk stronger retracement towards 115.00.

Data to be released today :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. national activity index, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

#1059

AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.93
Despite the greenback’s selloff to a 1-month bottom at 113.48 in New York Mon, subsequent rebound to 113.99 in tandem with US yields n U.S. stocks, then intra-day break there to 114.09 in Australia suggests recent decline from Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 has made a temporary bottom there and retracement to 114.50/55 is likely before another fall.

On the downside, a daily close below 113.66 would yield further weakness towards 113.15 but 113.00 should hold.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to consumer confidence at 15:00GMT. The Fed starts its 2-day monetary policy today but market only anticipates a rate hike at Mar FOMC meeting.

#1060

AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major**
Update Time : 26 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.09
Although the greenback’s rebound from Mon’s 1-month bottom at 113.48 to as high as 114.15 in New York Tue suggests recent decline from Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 has made a temporary low there, subsequent retreat in tandem with US stocks signals consolidation with downside bias remains and re-test of said support is seen but loss of momentum should keep price abv 113.15.

On the upside, only a daily close above 114.20/25 would risk stronger retracement to 114.54/55.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia Market Holiday, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, new home sales, Fed interest rate decision and Canada BOC interest rate decision.

#1061

AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.86
Despite the greenback’s resumption of recent decline from Jan’s near 5-year 116.34 peak to Mon’s 1-month bottom at 113.47, subsequent rally to as high as 114.69 in post-FOMC New York Wed on Fed Powell’s hawkish comments, then intra-day break there suggests price would head towards 115.05 but above needed for further gain to 115.25/35.

On the downside, only a daily close below 114.15 would signal said recovery over and risk weakness to 113.79/84 tomorrow.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to weekly jobless claims n continued jobless claims as well as Q4 GDP n Q4 PCE.

#1062

AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.62
Despite the greenback’s resumption of recent decline from January’s near 5-year 116.34 peak to Mon’s 1-month bottom at 113.48, subsequent rally to as high as 115.48 yesterday, then intra-day break there suggests the correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 115.84/90, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 116.00/05 today and bring retreat.

On the downside, only a daily close below 114.15 would signal said recovery over and risk weakness to 113.79/84 tomorrow.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia PPI.
France consumer spending, GDP, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, German import prices, GDP, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, University of Michigan sentiment and Canada budget balance on Friday.

#1063

AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 31 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.43
Thu’s rally above last week’s 115.05 top (now sup) to 115.48 (Thur), then to 115.68 Fri suggests pull- back from Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 has ended at last Mon’s 113.48 trough n intra-day retreat would bring consolidation before heading towards 116.34 ‘later’.

Trade from long side for 115.90 and only daily close below 115.05 risks stronger retrace to 114.68/78 .

Data to be released today:
Japan industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, China Market Holiday.
Italy GDP, EU GDP, Germany CPI.
Canada producer prices, U.S. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

#1064

AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.09
Despite dollar’s fall from last Friday’s 2-1/2 week peak at 115.68 to 114.17 on Wednesday, yesterday’s cross-inspired rally suggests the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there ahead of today’s US jobs report release and risk has increased for a correction.

On the downside, only below 114.50/55 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and pressure price back down to 114.17 early next week.

T.F.I.F., market is awaiting release of U.S. jobs report but this may turn out to a non event as markets are well-prepared for an Omicron-driven drop in January payrolls after a surprise negative reading in ADP private payrolls (-301k actual vs +207K forecast) on Wed. In addution, several Fed officials in recent days have signalled comfort with the underlying direction of U.S. economy and focus is inflation, so next Thur’s release of Jan’s CPI will grab more attention, however, beware of better-than-expected NFP which may trigger pre-weekend short covering in the greenback.

#1065

AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.18
Usd’s strong rebound from 114.17 last Wed on cross-selling in yen and then rally to 115.42 in post-NPF trading last Fri on upbeat U.S. NFP suggests pullback from 115.68 has possibly ended and re-test of said resistance is seen, above would extend rise from 113.48 to 115.95.

On the downside, only a daily close below 115.00/04 may risk weakness to 114.76/78, break, 114.58 later.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand market holiday, Australia services index, retail sales, China services PMI, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, UK house prices, Germany industrial output, Italy unemployment rate, industrial output and EU sentix index on Monday.

#1066

AceTraderFx Feb 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.35
Dollar’s intra-day cross-inspired break of last week’s 115.42 high suggests re-test of previous res at 115.68 would be seen after consolidation, break there would extend recent rise from Jan’s 1-month trough at 113.48 to 115.90/00, loss of momentum should cap price below Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34.

On the downside, below 115.00 any time signals temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement to 114.78.

On the data front, this week’s main focus is U.S. cpi on Thur, today, we have a slew of 2nd-tie eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. We also have Fed’s Bowman n Cleveland Fed’s President Mester (voter) speaking at 15:30GMT n 17:00GMT respectively.

#1067

AceTraderFx Feb 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.60
Despite dollar’s fall from 115.68 to 114.17 last Wed, subsequent erratic rise in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day brief break of 115.68 suggests correction from Jan’s 5-year peak at 116.34 has ended at 113.48 (Jan) earlier and upside bias remains for stronger gain towards 116.08, break, 116.30/34.

On the downside, only a daily close below 115.33 signals a temporary top is in place and would risk stronger retracement towards 115.06, then 114.92.

On the U.S. eco. data front, we have CPI n initial jobless claims n continued jobless claims at 13:30GMT, then later fereal budget ar 19:00GMT.

#1068

AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 116.00
Despite the greenback’s brief retreat from Thur’s 5-week peak at 116.33 to 115.74 in New York, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields on Fed Bullard’s hawkish comments suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of Jan’s near 5-year 116.34 top, break would extend recent upmove towards 116.86 .

On the downside, only a daily close below 115.74 signals a temporary high is in place and would risk stronger retracement towards 115.33, then 115.06 on Mon.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, retail sales, Japan market holiday.
UK industrial output, manufacturing output, constriction output, trade balance, Swiss CPI.
U.S. consumer sentiment.

#1069

AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.22
Despite the greenback’s rise to a 5-week peak at 116.33 on Thursday, subsequent selloff to 115.02 on Friday suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day retreat from 115.59 on safe-haven jpy buying due to escalating tensions in Ukraine suggests stronger retracement of recent upmove towards 114.78/80 would be seen.

On the upside, only above 115.60/65 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk gain towards 116.00/05 later this week.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand business NZ PSI, food price index.
Swiss producer/import price on Monday.

#1070

AceTraderFx Feb 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.36
Despite dollar’s rise to a 5-week high of 116.33 last Thursday, subsequent selloff to 115.02 on Friday due to escalating tension in Ukraine suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there signals choppy swings below Jan’s 5-year 116.34 peak would continue and below 115.02 would extend towards 114.78.

On the upside, only a daily close above 115.74 would risk stronger gain to 115.95/98.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to final Jan PPI n core PPI.

#1071

AceTraderFx Feb 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.76
Dollar’s selloff fm last Thur’s 5-week high of 116.33 to as low as 115.02 (Fri) suggests choppy trading below Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 would continue and despite strong rebound to 115.87 in NY yesterday on broad-based selling in yen due to easing tension in Ukraine, intra-day retreat signals consolidation with downside bias remains for 115.02, break, 114.78 later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 116.00/05 would risk re-test of 116.33.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to Jan retail sales n last but not least, Fed minutes.
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non voter) will host a virtual forum at 16:00GMT.

#1072

AceTraderFx Feb 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.01
Dollar’s selloff from last Thursday’s 5-week high of 116.33 to as low as 115.02 (Fri) suggests choppy trading below Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 would continue and despite strong rebound to 115.87 on Tuesday on broad-based selling in yen due to easing tension in Ukraine, intra-day retreat signals consolidation with downside bias remains for 115.02, break, 114.78 later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 116.00/05 would risk re-test of 116.33.