AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

Trading Discussion Currencies
1030

AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.65
Dollar’s decline from this week’s high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov’s 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only abv 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

Data out today:
New Zealand business NZ PSI, Japan machinery orders, Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing index and Tankan small non-manufacturing index.
Germany wholesale price index on Monday.

1031

AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.68
Dollar’s decline from this week’s high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov’s 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only above 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

U.S. will release PPI, core PPI n redbook retail sales.
The FOMC will start its 2-day monetary policy meeting later today.

1032

AceTraderFx Dec 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.66
Dollar’s 1-week long choppy trading from last Wed’s 113.95 high are likely to end later today and yield another rise due to expected Fed’s hawkish tilt, above 113.95 would extend upmove from Nov’s 112.54 low to retrace recent decline to 114.30/40.

On the downside, only below 113.23 signals said corrective rise has ended, then weakness to 113.08 and later 112.68/72 would be seen later this week.

Today is the today n at 19:00GMT, FOMC will announce its monetary policy decision n release Fed’s forward guidance (Fed’s dot plot). Then at 19:30GMT, Fed’s chair J. Powell will have to eat his humble pie in front of the press n publicly say the word ‘transitory’ whicih had been used repeatedly, despite market’s objection/rebuke, to describe Fed’s perception of U.S. rising inflation is dead, period.
Tuesday’s release of Nov’s PPI showed the index grew at the fastest pace on record. Ahead of FOMC announcement, we have a slew of U.S. eco. data, pls refr to our EI page for details.

1033

AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.13
Dollar’s break of last week’s high at 113.95 to 114.26 in post-FOMC New York after Fed’s hawkish tilt suggests correction from Nov’s 115.51 peak has ended earlier at 112.54 and further gain to 114.60/70 may be seen after consolidation before retreat due to loss of near term upward momentum.

On the downside, only a daily close below 113.95 dampens bullish outlook and risks weakness twd 113.44 later.

Data release on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, Australia manufacturing index, services PMI, employment change, unemployment change, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, China retail sales.
France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss SNB interest rate decision, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI,EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, trade balance, labour cost, ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase programme, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchase, BOE MOC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, KC Fed manufacturing, Canada wholesale trade and ADP employment change.

1034

AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.56
Despite the greenback’s rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Japan BoJ interest rate decision, Germany producer prices, wholesale price index, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, France business climate, U.K. Markit services PMI, EU construction output, HICP, Canada wholesale trade and budget balance.

1035

AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.42
Despite the greenback’s rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports.
U.K. Rightmove house price, CBI trends orders.
U.S. leading index change on Monday.

1036

AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.59
Despite the greenback’s rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light with 2nd-tier current account n redbook sales being the only data due out later today

1037

AceTraderFx Dec 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.30
Dollar’s intra-day firm break of last week’s high at 114.26 (Wed) due to renewed cross-selling in yen suggests early correction from Nov’s 3-year peak at 115.51 has possibly ended earlier at 112.54 and upside bias remains for further gain to 114.80/90, a daily close above needed to head twd 115.25 later this week.

On the downside, only below 113.95 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings and may risk weakness to 113.56/60.

On the data front, U.S. will later release a slew of economic indicators, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attetion to U.S. Q3 GDP, PCE n core PCE n later consumer confidence. If readings of these data are better than expected, then expect the greenback will move higher further.

1038

AceTraderFx Dec 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.26
Yesterday’s rally above last week’s 114.26 high to a 3-week top of 114.36 (NY) suggests recent erratic upmove from 112.54 to retrace early fall from Nov’s 3-year peak at 115.51 would extend further gain after consolidation, loss of upward momentum would cap price at projected res at 114.87 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only a daily close below 113.95 (previous res, now sup) signals top is made, risks retracement to 113.56/60 later.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay particular attention to PCE price index (Fed’s favourite inflation guage), durable good, jobless climas and University of Michigan consumer confidence, if readings come in better than street forecast, then usd may regain traction after weakness vs other G7 counterparts in last 2 days.

1039

AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.37
Dollar corss-inspired rise to a fresh 3-week high of 114.51 (Asia) today suggests correction from Nov’s 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended earlier at 112.54 and upside bias remains for marginal gain, loss of near term upward momentum should cap price below 115.00 handle today.

On the downside, only below 114.08 (Thur low) signals temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement to 113.95/96, then 113.76 next week.

1040

AceTraderFx Dec 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.80
Dollar’s resumption of recent upmove to a 4-week high of 114.94 today due to broad-based yen selling on continued risk-on sentiment suggests early correction from Nov’s 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended, however, loss of upward momentum would limit upside to 115.15/20 and risk has increased for a minor retracement later this week.

Only a daily close below 114.51 (last week’s top, now sup) suggests temporary high is in place and may yield weakness to 114.31/32 before rebound.

U.S. will later release redbook retail sales, monthly home price n Richmond Fed mfg index. Market focus is on U.S. stocks as Monday’s rise in the S&P 500 to an all time high boosted risk appetite n triggered broad-based usd and yen selling.

1041

AceTraderFx Dec 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 1114.98
Although dollar’s present break of Tue’s fresh 1-month top at 114.94 suggests early correction from Nov’s 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended and recent cross-inspired upmove would yield marginal gain, loss of near term upward momentum should cap price below 115.51 and risk has increased for a minor retracement to take place later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 114.72 (Tue low) signals temporary top is in place, risks weakness to 114.51, then towards 114.31.

On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of second-tier economic data, please refer to our EI page for details.

1042

AceTraderFx Dec 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.16
Despite dollar’s brief retreat to 114.68 in New York Wed on usd’s broad-based weakness, subsequent strong rebound on cross-selling in yen and present firm break of Wed’s fresh 1-month high at 115.03 to 115.20 suggests recent upmove would extend toward 115.51 but next projected target at 115.93 may hold.

On the downside, only below 114.51 may signal temporary top is in place and risk weakness towards 114.31, then 114.08/10.

Data to be released on Thursday :
U.K. Nationwide house price, Swiss KOF indicator. U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and Chicago PMI.

1043

AceTraderFx Jan 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.29
Although dollar’s rise to a fresh 1-month high of 115.20 in Europe on Thursday suggests recent upmove remains in force gain towards Nov’s fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 may be seen, consolidation is in store before another rise but a firm break there is needed to head to next projected target at 115.93 next week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 114.68 indicates a temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement towards 114.51, break, 114.31/32.

On the data front, U.S. will later release Markit mfg PMI and then construction spending.

1044

AceTraderFx Jan 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.78
The greenback’s intra-day rally on broad-based selling in jpy and break above November’s 3-year peak at 115.51 signals Medium Term uptrend has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 116.20/30, however, overbought condition would keep price below 116.50/60 and bring a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 114.96 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 114.60/70.

On the data front, U.S. will later release redbook sales, ISM mfg index n JOLTS job openings.

1045

AceTraderFx Jan 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Jan 2022 09:10GMT

USD/JPY - 115.97
Although dollar’s retreat after yesterday’s rally to a 5-year top at 116.34 on broad-based yen selling signals recent upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation is in store, as long as 115.81 holds, upside bias remains for gain towards 116.70 but overbought condition would keep price below 116.86 and bring a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 115.81 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement twd 115.51.

U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, ADP private payrolls n Markit services PMI, then later, FOMC minutes.

1046

AceTraderFx Jan 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.87
Although dollar’s retreat after Tuesday’s rally to a 5-year top at 116.34 on broad-based yen selling signals range trading would be in store before MT uptrend resumes and above 116.34 would head towards daily objective at 116.50, reckon loss of momentum would keep price below 116.80/90 and bring a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 115.51 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 115.20/25.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia Services PMI, Japan Services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Germany industrial orders CPI, U.K. Markit Services PMI, EU producer prices, Italy Market Holiday.
U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada trade balance, exports and imports.

1047

AceTraderFx Jan 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.91
Dollar’s retreat from Tuesday’s 5-year peak at 116.34
and subsequent volatile swings on cross-buying in yen yesterday signals range trading would be in store before MT uptrend resumes and above 116.34 would head towards daily objective at 116.50, reckon loss of momentum would keep price below 116.80/90 and bring a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 115.51 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 115.20/25.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan all household spending, Tokyo core CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, U.K. Halifax house prices, Markit construction PMI, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France consumer spending, current account, industrial output, trade balance, imports, exports, EU HICP, retail sales, business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. non-farm payrolls private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.

1048

AceTraderFx Jan 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.72
Despite dollar’s daily sideways swings after retreat from Tue’s near 5-year peak of 116.34 to 115.63 (Wed), Friday’s break of 115.63 to 115.52 in post-NFP trading in New York on broad-based usd’s weakness suggests a temporary top is in place and below 115.51 would bring stronger retracement to 115.20/25.

On the upside, only a daily close above 116.04 would yield stronger gain to 116.30/34, break, 116.50 later.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty thin with 2nd-tier wholesale inventories n wholesale sales being the only data due out.

1049

AceTraderFx Jan 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.30
Although dollar’s break of 115.52 (Friday) to as low as 115.05 in New York yesterday on cross-buying in yen signals recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top at last Tue’s near 5-year peak at 116.34, however, reckon 114.75/80 would contain downside and yield rebound due to oversold condition, above 115.52 yields further gain to 115.80/84.

On the downside, only a daily close below 114.96 risks stronger retracement towards 114.68, then to 114.44/48 later.

U.S. will later release MBA mortgage applications n redbook sales.
We also have Kansas City Fed President George (voter) speaking on the economic and monetary policy outlook at an in-person event at 14:30GMT.