AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

#595

AceTraderFx Feb 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.35
Dollar’s rally from 108.56 in Asia to as high as 109.54 in New York yesterday suggests recent decline from Jan’s 7-1/-2 month peak at 110.28 has made a temporary bottom at last Fri’s 3-week trough of 108.32 and intra-day retreat would bring range trading before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 110.00/09 should hold.

On the downside, only below 108.95/00 would risk stronger retracement to 108.80/85, then 108.56.

U.S. President Trump is due to deliver his annual State of the Union address at 02:00GMT which is likely to be usd/yen positive.
Later, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (see our EI section for details), pay attention to ADP private payrolls at 13:15GMT.

#596

AceTraderFx Feb 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.92
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from Jan’s 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 to a 3-week low at 108.32 last Friday, subsequent rally to 109.54 (now support) on Tuesday, then 109.98 in Asia today suggests correction has ended and above said resistant would extend medium term upmove from 2019 33-month trough at 104.46 to 110.67, however, 111.00/05 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would risk stronger retracement to 109.26/31.

U.S. will later release initially weekly jobless claims, labor costs and productivity.
Also, we have Dallas Fed President Kapan (FOMC voter) speaking at an economic forum in Dallas at 14:15GMT.

#597

AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.92
Dollar’s resumption of recent upmove from last Friday’s 3-week bottom at 108.32 to 110.02 in Australia today suggests re-test of Jan’s 7-1/2 month peak of 110.28 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend medium term rise from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 110.67 before prospect of retreat due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate temporary top made and risk weakness to 109.26/31.

Data to be released later today:
UK Halifax house prices, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.

#598

AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.88
Dollar’s sideways swings following retreat from last Friday’s 2-week high at 110.02 to 109.54 suggests temporary top is in place and consolidation with near term downside bias would be seen, however, reckon said support would remain intact and yield another rise, above 110.02 would bring re-test of Jan’s 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28.

On the downside, only below 109.50/54 would risk stronger retracement to 109.26/31, then 108.98/00.

Data to be released later:
EU industrial production, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, Federal budget.

#599

AceTraderFx Feb 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.78
Despite yesterday’s brief break above last Friday’s 110.02 high to a 3-week peak at 110.13 (Europe), intra-day retreat from 110.09 in Australia on risk aversion suggests choppy trading below January’s 7-1/2 month top at 110.28 would continue, however, reckon 109.54/57 would remain intact and yield rebound.

On the downside, only below 109.26/31 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.00/05.

U.S. will later release key inflation data which include Jan CPI, core CPI, real weekly earnings n weekly jobless claims. We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak (please refer to our EI section for details).

#600

AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.77
Dollar’s retreat from Wednesday’s 3-week high at 110.13 to 109.63 yesterday suggests choppy trading below January’s 7-1/2 month top at 110.28 would continue, however, subsequent rebound signals pullback has possibly ended, above 110.13 would confirm and yield 110.28 again, break would extend gain to 110.60/67 before prospect of correction.

On the downside, only below 109.57/47 would risk stronger retracement to 109.26/31.

Data to be released later:
Germany GDP, wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price, Italy trade balance, EU employment change, trade balance, GDP.
U.S. import prices, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.

#601

AceTraderFx Feb 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.87
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Wednesday’s 3-week high at 110.13 to 109.63 on Thursday, subsequent rebound to 109.90 (Friday) suggests pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 110.13 would bring re-test of Jan’s 7-1/2 month 110.28 peak, where break would extend medium term upmove to 110.60/67 before prospect of correction.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would risk stronger retracement to 109.26/31, then 108.98.

EU will release its construction output at 10:00GMT. Elsewhere, ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Fabio Panetta will participate in a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.

#602

AceTraderFx Feb 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.69
Dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s high at 109.96 to 109.66 (Asia) suggests choppy trading below Jan’s 7-1/2 month top at 110.28 would continue with mild downside bias and marginal weakness is likely to be seen, however, support at 109.54 should contain current fall and yield another rise later. Above last Wednesday’s high at 110.13 would bring re-test of 110.28, break, 110.50/55 later.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk would increase for stronger weakness to 109.26/30.

Data to be released later today:
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, Canada manufacturing sales, and New Zealand GDT price index.

#603

AceTraderFx Feb 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.09
Dollar’s re-test of last Wednesday’s 3-week high at 110.13 in Europe today suggests price would head towards January’s 7-1/2 month top at 110.28 after consolidation, where break would extend medium term upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 110.67/70, however, reckon 111.00/05 should remain intact and bring correction.

On the downside, only below 109.63/66 would risk weakness to 109.54, then 109.26/31.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today including PPI at 13:30GMT along with several speeches from Federal Reserve officials but market focus will remain on the release of FOMC minutes at 19:00GMT.
The central bank had kept its rates on hold despite continuous pressure from President Trump for Powell to cut rates. Hence, investors would be looking for any hints on the path the bank will take in its rate setting policy.

#604

AceTraderFx Feb 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.67
Dollar’s spectacular rally to a 9-1/2 month high at 111.58 in New York yesterday due to active cross-selling in yen and intra-day rise above this level suggests medium trend upmove from 2019 August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 would head to 111.95/00 after consolidation, where break would extend to 112.39 (April) before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 111.12 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.80/84 before rebound.

Pay attention to the release of US jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is 210k vs previous reading of 205k. Elsewhere, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will participate in a talk hosted by Harvard University at 18:20GMT.

#605

AceTraderFx Feb 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.69
Although dollar has eased after rally from Wednesday’s 109.86 low to a near 10-month high at 112.22 yesterday and range trading would be seen, as long as 121.12 holds, upside bias remains and above 112.22 would extend medium term upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 towards 112.39, break needed to extend to 112.60/65.

On the downside, only below 111.12 would risk stronger retracement to 110.90/95, then 110.65/70.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but pay particular attention to manufacturing and services PMI at 14:45GMT. Street forecasts are for a slight drop to 51.5 and 53.0 from previous readings of 51.9 and 53.4 respectively.
Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Mester will participate in a “Monetary policy for next recession” panel at 18:30GMT.

#606

AceTraderFx Feb 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.48
Although dollar’s initial weakness to 111.22 in New Zealand due to safe-haven yen buying suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top at last Thursday’s 9-1/2 month peak at 112.22, intra-day rebound has retained bullish bias and above 112.03 would encourage for subsequent headway towards 2019 top at 112.39.

Only a daily close below 111.12 sup dampens bullish outlook and risks stronger retracement to 110.80/90 before prospect of recovery.

Data to be released later:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current assessment, Ifo expectations, UK BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing index and Canada wholesale trade on Monday.

#607

AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.41
Dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s 9-1/2 month high at 112.22 to 109.90 in New York yesterday suggests medium term upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and intra-day rebound in tandem with U.S. yields would bring range trading before prospect of another decline, below 109.90 would extend to 109.63/66.

On the upside, only above 110.87/90 would risk stronger retracement to 111.00/03, then 111.20/22.

Apart from the US housing data which will be released today, there are a slew of Federal Reserve speakers due to speak today so one should pay attention to the following; Dallas Fed President Kaplan at 14:45GMT and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari at 18:00GMT.

#608

AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.03
Dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s high at 110.70 to 109.98 in Asia today suggests recovery from Tuesday’s low at 109.90 has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from February’s 9-1/2 month peak at 122.22 to 109.63 but 109.54 should remain intact due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 110.71 signals pullback has made a temporary bottom there and stronger retracement to 111.03, then 111.22.

There is a slew of U.S. data due today but one should pay particular attention to the release of U.S. final GDP figures at 13:30GMT.
Street forecasts for GDP and GDP deflator are 2.1% and 1.5% vs previous readings of 2.1% and 1.4% respectively.

#609

AceTraderFx Feb 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.80
Dollar’s decline to 109.58 near New York close yesterday, then intra-day fall below said support on selloff in U.S. stocks and yields suggests medium term upmove from 2019 33-month bottom at 104.46 has made a temporary top at last Thursday’s 9-1/2 month peak of 112.22 and further weakness to 108.32/35 would be seen after consolidation but oversold condition may keep price above 108.00.

On the upside, only above 109.58/68 would indicate temporary low made and risk stronger retracement to 110.00/10.

Data to be released on Friday :
UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide house price, Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicator, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI (EU norm), CPI, producer prices, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm).
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GdP, production prices, budget balance.

#610

AceTraderFx Mar 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.24
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent decline from Feb’s near 10-month peak at 112.22 to a 4-1/2 month bottom at 107.00 in New Zealand today, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with US yields suggests temporary low is in place, however, reckon 108.80/85 would cap upside and yield retreat later.

On the downside, below 107.76 would extend weakness to 107.52/55 but 107.00 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Monday:
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI

#611

AceTraderFx Mar 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.98
Although dollar’s rally from Monday’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 107.00 suggests recent decline from Feb’s near 10-month peak at 112.22 has made a temporary bottom, subsequent retreat from 108.57 suggests recovery has ended and consolidation would be seen before re-test of 107.00, break, 106.82/85 later.

On the upside, only above 108.53/57 would risk stronger retracement to 109.00/05.

In the absence of major economic data from the U.S. today, investors should pay attention to comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner in London at 19:50GMT.

#612

AceTraderFx Mar 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.35
Yesterday’s break of Monday’s low at 107.00 to 106.94 in New York due to surprise 50 b.p rate cut by the Fed, then to a 4-1/2 month bottom at 106.86 in Australia today confirms recent decline has resumed, subsequent rebound may head back to 108.00/06 before prospect of another fall, however, reckon 106.49 would remain intact.

On the upside, only above 108.06 would risk stronger retracement to 108.53/57.

Pay attention to the release of US ADP employment at 13:15GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecasts are 170k n 54.9, down from previous readings of 291k and 55.5 respectively.

#613

AceTraderFx Mar 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.78
Yesterday’s selloff below Wednesday’s low at 106.86 to 105.98 in New York, then to 105.68 today confirms recent decline from February’s 9-1/2 month high at 112.22 has resumed and price would head to 105.00/10 after consolidation before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only above 106.34 signals temporary bottom is made and risks stronger retracement to 106.51, then 106.86.

Data to be released later:
Germany industrial orders, France current account trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house prices, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, average earnings, trade balance, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI.

#614

AceTraderFx Mar 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 102.45
Intra-day selloff below 2019 low at 104.46 (Aug) to a 3-1/2 year trough at 101.57 on plunge in U.S. Treasury yields suggests medium term decline has resumed, and as 103.06 has capped subsequent recovery, downside bias remains, below 101.57 needed to head to 101.15/20.

On the upside, only above 103.06 signals temporary bottom is made and risks stronger retracement to 103.50/55.

Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index.
Canada leading index, housing starts, building permits on Monday.