AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jan 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.57
Although dollar has recovered after yesterday’s resumption of recent decline from last Friday’s 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 to a near 2-week bottom at 109.27 (NY), as long as 109.65 (European high) holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 109.27 would extend weakness to 109.00/05.
On the upside, only above 109.77 would risk gain to 110.09/11, then possibly 110.28.
On the data front, U.S. will release Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI at 14:45 GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jan 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.06
Although dollar has rebounded after Monday’s resumption of recent decline from January’s fresh 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 to a 2-week low at 108.74, intra-day retreat from 109.26 in Australia suggests recovery has ended possibly ended and downside bias remains for re-test of 108.74, where break would extend weakness to 108.40/50.
On the upside, only above 109.44 may risk stronger retracement to 109.65/75.
On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications at 12:00 GMT, then wholesale inventories, and trade balance at 13:30 GMT, followed by pending home sales at 15:00 GMT. Today’s focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision at 19:00 GMT. Although it is widely expected that the central bank will keep its rate unchanged at 1.75%, one should pay attention to Chairman J. Powell’s press conference at 19:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Jan 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.85
Despite the greenback’s rebound from Monday’s 2-week trough at 108.74 to 109.27 in Australia yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests the recovery has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid support, break would extend decline from January’s fresh 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 to 108.44/50 later before prospect of a correction early next week.
On the upside, only above 109.27 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 109.60/65.
Data to be released later:
Swiss KOF indicator, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, Italy unemployment rate, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, unemployment rate, UK BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases.
U.S. GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, and Canada average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jan 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.05
Dollar’s rebound from Thur’s 3-week trough at 108.59 (NY) suggests recent decline from January’s 4-1/2 month peak at 110.28 has made a temporary low and consolidation is in store, reckon 109.26/27 res would cap upside and yield decline.
Below 108.59 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 108.25.
Only a daily close above 109.30 risks stronger retracement to 109.65/75.
T.G.I.F., U.S. will release personal income, personal spending, PCE deflator, MNI Chicago PMI and University of Micghigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Feb 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.61
Although dollar’s intra-day rebound on short covering following resumption of recent decline from January’s 110.28 peak to a 3-week trough at 108.32 (New York) on Friday suggests suggests temporary low is made and range trading is in store before prospect of further weakness, ‘loss of momentum’ should keep price above 107.90.
Only above 108.95/00 would risk stronger retracement to 109.15/25 before retreat.
Data to be released later today:
Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.04
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent decline from Jan’s 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 to a 3-week bottom at 108.32 last Friday, subsequent rebound to 108.79 yesterday, then higher today suggests temporary trough made, however, 109.26/27 should remain intact and yield another fall later.
On the downside, below 108.56 (Asian low) would bring re-test of 108.32, where break would extend to 108.01/05.
U.S. will later release Redbook sales, ISM NY index, durable goods order n factory orders.
AceTraderFx Feb 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.35
Dollar’s rally from 108.56 in Asia to as high as 109.54 in New York yesterday suggests recent decline from Jan’s 7-1/-2 month peak at 110.28 has made a temporary bottom at last Fri’s 3-week trough of 108.32 and intra-day retreat would bring range trading before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 110.00/09 should hold.
On the downside, only below 108.95/00 would risk stronger retracement to 108.80/85, then 108.56.
U.S. President Trump is due to deliver his annual State of the Union address at 02:00GMT which is likely to be usd/yen positive.
Later, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (see our EI section for details), pay attention to ADP private payrolls at 13:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.92
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from Jan’s 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 to a 3-week low at 108.32 last Friday, subsequent rally to 109.54 (now support) on Tuesday, then 109.98 in Asia today suggests correction has ended and above said resistant would extend medium term upmove from 2019 33-month trough at 104.46 to 110.67, however, 111.00/05 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 109.54 would risk stronger retracement to 109.26/31.
U.S. will later release initially weekly jobless claims, labor costs and productivity.
Also, we have Dallas Fed President Kapan (FOMC voter) speaking at an economic forum in Dallas at 14:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.92
Dollar’s resumption of recent upmove from last Friday’s 3-week bottom at 108.32 to 110.02 in Australia today suggests re-test of Jan’s 7-1/2 month peak of 110.28 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend medium term rise from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 110.67 before prospect of retreat due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate temporary top made and risk weakness to 109.26/31.
Data to be released later today:
UK Halifax house prices, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.88
Dollar’s sideways swings following retreat from last Friday’s 2-week high at 110.02 to 109.54 suggests temporary top is in place and consolidation with near term downside bias would be seen, however, reckon said support would remain intact and yield another rise, above 110.02 would bring re-test of Jan’s 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28.
On the downside, only below 109.50/54 would risk stronger retracement to 109.26/31, then 108.98/00.
Data to be released later:
EU industrial production, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Feb 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.78
Despite yesterday’s brief break above last Friday’s 110.02 high to a 3-week peak at 110.13 (Europe), intra-day retreat from 110.09 in Australia on risk aversion suggests choppy trading below January’s 7-1/2 month top at 110.28 would continue, however, reckon 109.54/57 would remain intact and yield rebound.
On the downside, only below 109.26/31 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.00/05.
U.S. will later release key inflation data which include Jan CPI, core CPI, real weekly earnings n weekly jobless claims. We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak (please refer to our EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.77
Dollar’s retreat from Wednesday’s 3-week high at 110.13 to 109.63 yesterday suggests choppy trading below January’s 7-1/2 month top at 110.28 would continue, however, subsequent rebound signals pullback has possibly ended, above 110.13 would confirm and yield 110.28 again, break would extend gain to 110.60/67 before prospect of correction.
On the downside, only below 109.57/47 would risk stronger retracement to 109.26/31.
Data to be released later:
Germany GDP, wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price, Italy trade balance, EU employment change, trade balance, GDP.
U.S. import prices, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Feb 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.87
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Wednesday’s 3-week high at 110.13 to 109.63 on Thursday, subsequent rebound to 109.90 (Friday) suggests pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 110.13 would bring re-test of Jan’s 7-1/2 month 110.28 peak, where break would extend medium term upmove to 110.60/67 before prospect of correction.
On the downside, only below 109.54 would risk stronger retracement to 109.26/31, then 108.98.
EU will release its construction output at 10:00GMT. Elsewhere, ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Fabio Panetta will participate in a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.
AceTraderFx Feb 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.69
Dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s high at 109.96 to 109.66 (Asia) suggests choppy trading below Jan’s 7-1/2 month top at 110.28 would continue with mild downside bias and marginal weakness is likely to be seen, however, support at 109.54 should contain current fall and yield another rise later. Above last Wednesday’s high at 110.13 would bring re-test of 110.28, break, 110.50/55 later.
On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk would increase for stronger weakness to 109.26/30.
Data to be released later today:
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, Canada manufacturing sales, and New Zealand GDT price index.
AceTraderFx Feb 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.09
Dollar’s re-test of last Wednesday’s 3-week high at 110.13 in Europe today suggests price would head towards January’s 7-1/2 month top at 110.28 after consolidation, where break would extend medium term upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 110.67/70, however, reckon 111.00/05 should remain intact and bring correction.
On the downside, only below 109.63/66 would risk weakness to 109.54, then 109.26/31.
There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today including PPI at 13:30GMT along with several speeches from Federal Reserve officials but market focus will remain on the release of FOMC minutes at 19:00GMT.
The central bank had kept its rates on hold despite continuous pressure from President Trump for Powell to cut rates. Hence, investors would be looking for any hints on the path the bank will take in its rate setting policy.
AceTraderFx Feb 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.67
Dollar’s spectacular rally to a 9-1/2 month high at 111.58 in New York yesterday due to active cross-selling in yen and intra-day rise above this level suggests medium trend upmove from 2019 August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 would head to 111.95/00 after consolidation, where break would extend to 112.39 (April) before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 111.12 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.80/84 before rebound.
Pay attention to the release of US jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is 210k vs previous reading of 205k. Elsewhere, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will participate in a talk hosted by Harvard University at 18:20GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.69
Although dollar has eased after rally from Wednesday’s 109.86 low to a near 10-month high at 112.22 yesterday and range trading would be seen, as long as 121.12 holds, upside bias remains and above 112.22 would extend medium term upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 towards 112.39, break needed to extend to 112.60/65.
On the downside, only below 111.12 would risk stronger retracement to 110.90/95, then 110.65/70.
There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but pay particular attention to manufacturing and services PMI at 14:45GMT. Street forecasts are for a slight drop to 51.5 and 53.0 from previous readings of 51.9 and 53.4 respectively.
Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Mester will participate in a “Monetary policy for next recession” panel at 18:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.48
Although dollar’s initial weakness to 111.22 in New Zealand due to safe-haven yen buying suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top at last Thursday’s 9-1/2 month peak at 112.22, intra-day rebound has retained bullish bias and above 112.03 would encourage for subsequent headway towards 2019 top at 112.39.
Only a daily close below 111.12 sup dampens bullish outlook and risks stronger retracement to 110.80/90 before prospect of recovery.
Data to be released later:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current assessment, Ifo expectations, UK BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing index and Canada wholesale trade on Monday.
AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.41
Dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s 9-1/2 month high at 112.22 to 109.90 in New York yesterday suggests medium term upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and intra-day rebound in tandem with U.S. yields would bring range trading before prospect of another decline, below 109.90 would extend to 109.63/66.
On the upside, only above 110.87/90 would risk stronger retracement to 111.00/03, then 111.20/22.
Apart from the US housing data which will be released today, there are a slew of Federal Reserve speakers due to speak today so one should pay attention to the following; Dallas Fed President Kaplan at 14:45GMT and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari at 18:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.03
Dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s high at 110.70 to 109.98 in Asia today suggests recovery from Tuesday’s low at 109.90 has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from February’s 9-1/2 month peak at 122.22 to 109.63 but 109.54 should remain intact due to loss of momentum.
On the upside, only above 110.71 signals pullback has made a temporary bottom there and stronger retracement to 111.03, then 111.22.
There is a slew of U.S. data due today but one should pay particular attention to the release of U.S. final GDP figures at 13:30GMT.
Street forecasts for GDP and GDP deflator are 2.1% and 1.5% vs previous readings of 2.1% and 1.4% respectively.