AceTraderFx Jun 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.50
Despite the greenback’s brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff in New York on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.
On the data front, U.S. will release international trade balance, goods trade balance, redbook sales and JOLTS job openings, these data are not expected to have any impact on intra-day price swings, so traders will take cue from movement in U.S. yields in NY session.
AceTraderFx Jun 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.39
Despite the greenback’s brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 on Friday, subsequent selloff to 109.20 Monday on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.
U.S. will later release some second-tier eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
Once again, traders will take cue from intra-day movement in U.S. yields.
AceTraderFx Jun 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.49
Despite the greenback’s brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 on Friday, subsequent selloff to 109.20 Monday on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.
On the data front, market’s main focus this week is the release of U.S. inflation data, namely CPI n core CPI later today (please see our EI page for details).
Although street forecast for May annual CPI to be 4.7% vs previous reading of 4.2%, if actual figure comes in lower than estimate, then expect renewed usd’s selling.
On the flip side, if it’s higher, U.S. yields will jump and would push the pair higher to 110.00/10.
AceTraderFx Jun 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.49
Yesterday’s fall from 109.79 to 109.31 in NY due to selloff in U.S. yields suggests early correction from this week’s low at 109.20 (Mon) has ended and expect consolidation before decline from Jun’s near 2-month peak at 110.33 resumes, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 108.71/75.
Only above 109.79 dampens bearish outlook and may risk stronger retracement to 110.00/10.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, retail sales.
Germany wholesale price index, UK GDP industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate.
Canada capacity utilization, and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jun 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.09
The greenback’s rally from 109.33 in Europe on Friday to 110.15 today on rise in U.S. Treasury yields suggests pullback from June’s near 2-month peak at 110.33 has ended at 109.20 last Monday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.05/10, however, said resistance may hold on first testing and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 109.20 would revive bearishness for stronger weakness to 108.80/90 before prospect of a rebound later.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, food price index, GDT price index, Australia house price index, Japan tertiary industry activity.
Germany CPI, HICP, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
Canada housing starts and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, core PPI, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Jun 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.96
Dollar’s erratic rise from last Monday’s 109.20 low to 110.16 in Europe yesterday suggests pullback from June’s near 2-month 110.33 peak has ended and intra-day pullback will bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another upmove, above 110.33 yields 110.70/75 but March’s 1-year 110.96 peak should hold on first testing.
On the downside, only below 109.83 would bring stronger retracement to 109.60, break, 109.31/35.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data in New York morning (please refer to our EI page for details) which are likely to be ignored until FOMC announcemnet.
AceTraderFx Jun 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.62
Dollar’s rally yesterday after Fed’s hawkish hold and then break of previous June’s 110.33 high to 110.71, then 110.82 in Asia today suggests early correction from March’s 1-year 110.96 peak has ended at 107.49 in April, above extends uptrend from 2021 January’s 102.60 trough to 111.60/70 before prospect of correction.
On the downside, only a daily close below 110.33 may risk stronger retracement to 109.81/85.
U.S. will later release some eco. data (please see for EI page for details) but market focus will be on intra-day move in U.S. yields as well as U.S. equities, further decline in U.S. stocks will trigger safe-haven usd buying.
AceTraderFx Jun 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.15
Dollar’s rally yesterday after Fed’s hawkish hold and then break of previous June’s 110.33 high to 110.71, then 110.82 in Asia today suggests early correction from March’s 1-year 110.96 peak has ended at 107.49 in April, above extends uptrend from 2021 January’s 102.60 trough to 111.60/70 b4 prospect of correction.
On the downside, only a daily close below 110.33 may risk stronger retracement to 109.81/85.
T.G.I.F. n no U.S. eco. data is due out, so market will take cue from movement in U.S. yields n intra-day price swings in U.S. stocks as ‘volatility’ is expected on today so-called ‘quadruple witching’ day due to expiries of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options n lastly, single stock futures.
AceTraderFx Jun 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.96
Despite dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields suggests the pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.48, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, however, loss of momentum may keep price below 2021 peak at 110.96 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.
Data to be released today:
U.K. Rightmove house price and Australia retail sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.46
Despite dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields suggests the pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.48, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, however, loss of momentum may keep price below 2021 peak at 110.96 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia Westpac consumer survey.
U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends orders, Italy industrial sales.
U.S. redbook, existing home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing and EU consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Jun 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.88
Despite dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 on Monday, subsequent rally in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break above said resistance suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of 2021 peak at 110.96, where break would extend Medium Term upmove to 111.20/30 before prospect of a much-needed correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.
Today is PMI day in the US together with a slew of other eco data, please refer to our EI page for details. Also, we have Fed’s Bowman n Fed’s Bostic scheduled to speak in New York session.
AceTraderFx Jun 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.87
Despite dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s near 15-month peak at 111.10 to 110.67 in New York, subsequent rally in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break above said resistance suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for Medium Term upmove to extend to 111.40/50 before prospect of a much-needed correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 110.48 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.72 but 109.20 should hold.
Ahead of Friday’s release of Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the U.S. will release a slew of eco. data which will cause intra-day price swings, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Q1 GDP, durable goods n Q1 PCE prices etc. Following Wed’s hawkish comments by Fed’s Bowman n Bostic, we have more fed speak by a number of FOMC members, so usd may go up on more hawkish comments by some of them.
AceTraderFx Jun 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.74
Despite dollar’s initial marginal gain to a near 15-month high of 111.11 (Asia), subsequent retreat to 110.70 on cross unwinding in yen suggests medium-term uptrend has made a temporary top and range trading is seen ahead of U.S. PCE data, above 111.11 would extend marginal gain, however, loss of momentum should cap price below daily res at 111.71.
A daily close below 110.67 would risk stronger retracement towards 110.22 but this week’s low at 109.72 (Mon) should remain intact.
T.G.I.F., U.S. will release a raft of eco. data which which definitely cause intra-day price swings n in addition, we have a total of 4 Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Jun 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.74
Although dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above 111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.
On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.
G7 economic data to be released later today:
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.72
Although dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday, then 110.46 today suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.
On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details) n we have Richmond Fed Barkin is scheduled to speak at 13:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.50
Although dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday, then 110.46 today suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above 111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.
On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to ADP private payrolls ahead of Friday’s key jobs report, a higher-than-expected number (forecast is 600k) will lead to renewed usd buying. we also have fed’s Bostic and Barkin scheduled to speak later today.
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AceTraderFx July 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.48
The greenback’s rise above June’s near 15-month peak at 111.11 on cross-selling in jpy to 111.65 in Asia today suggests Medium Term upmove has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 111.60/70, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 111.80/90 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
On the downside, only below 110.75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.43 but 109.95/00 should remain intact.
T.G.I.F., market waits U.S. June non-farm payrolls and unemployment, we also have a slew of other eco. data but these will be largely overlooked by traders, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx July 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.85
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.
On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.
As today is Independence Day in the U.S., there is no release of U.S. eco. data. BOJ Gov. Kuroda will deliver a brief speech at the bank’s quarterly regional branch managers’ meeting.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major