AceTraderFx Jun 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.15
Dollar’s rally yesterday after Fed’s hawkish hold and then break of previous June’s 110.33 high to 110.71, then 110.82 in Asia today suggests early correction from March’s 1-year 110.96 peak has ended at 107.49 in April, above extends uptrend from 2021 January’s 102.60 trough to 111.60/70 b4 prospect of correction.
On the downside, only a daily close below 110.33 may risk stronger retracement to 109.81/85.
T.G.I.F. n no U.S. eco. data is due out, so market will take cue from movement in U.S. yields n intra-day price swings in U.S. stocks as ‘volatility’ is expected on today so-called ‘quadruple witching’ day due to expiries of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options n lastly, single stock futures.
AceTraderFx Jun 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.96
Despite dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields suggests the pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.48, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, however, loss of momentum may keep price below 2021 peak at 110.96 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.
Data to be released today:
U.K. Rightmove house price and Australia retail sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.46
Despite dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields suggests the pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.48, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, however, loss of momentum may keep price below 2021 peak at 110.96 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia Westpac consumer survey.
U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends orders, Italy industrial sales.
U.S. redbook, existing home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing and EU consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Jun 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.88
Despite dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 on Monday, subsequent rally in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break above said resistance suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of 2021 peak at 110.96, where break would extend Medium Term upmove to 111.20/30 before prospect of a much-needed correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.
Today is PMI day in the US together with a slew of other eco data, please refer to our EI page for details. Also, we have Fed’s Bowman n Fed’s Bostic scheduled to speak in New York session.
AceTraderFx Jun 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.87
Despite dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s near 15-month peak at 111.10 to 110.67 in New York, subsequent rally in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break above said resistance suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for Medium Term upmove to extend to 111.40/50 before prospect of a much-needed correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 110.48 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.72 but 109.20 should hold.
Ahead of Friday’s release of Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the U.S. will release a slew of eco. data which will cause intra-day price swings, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Q1 GDP, durable goods n Q1 PCE prices etc. Following Wed’s hawkish comments by Fed’s Bowman n Bostic, we have more fed speak by a number of FOMC members, so usd may go up on more hawkish comments by some of them.
AceTraderFx Jun 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.74
Despite dollar’s initial marginal gain to a near 15-month high of 111.11 (Asia), subsequent retreat to 110.70 on cross unwinding in yen suggests medium-term uptrend has made a temporary top and range trading is seen ahead of U.S. PCE data, above 111.11 would extend marginal gain, however, loss of momentum should cap price below daily res at 111.71.
A daily close below 110.67 would risk stronger retracement towards 110.22 but this week’s low at 109.72 (Mon) should remain intact.
T.G.I.F., U.S. will release a raft of eco. data which which definitely cause intra-day price swings n in addition, we have a total of 4 Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Jun 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.74
Although dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above 111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.
On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.
G7 economic data to be released later today:
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.72
Although dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday, then 110.46 today suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.
On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details) n we have Richmond Fed Barkin is scheduled to speak at 13:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.50
Although dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday, then 110.46 today suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above 111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.
On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to ADP private payrolls ahead of Friday’s key jobs report, a higher-than-expected number (forecast is 600k) will lead to renewed usd buying. we also have fed’s Bostic and Barkin scheduled to speak later today.
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AceTraderFx July 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 111.48
The greenback’s rise above June’s near 15-month peak at 111.11 on cross-selling in jpy to 111.65 in Asia today suggests Medium Term upmove has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 111.60/70, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 111.80/90 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
On the downside, only below 110.75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.43 but 109.95/00 should remain intact.
T.G.I.F., market waits U.S. June non-farm payrolls and unemployment, we also have a slew of other eco. data but these will be largely overlooked by traders, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx July 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.85
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.
On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.
As today is Independence Day in the U.S., there is no release of U.S. eco. data. BOJ Gov. Kuroda will deliver a brief speech at the bank’s quarterly regional branch managers’ meeting.
AceTraderFx July 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 1.1849
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.
On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand NZIER confidence, GDT price index, Japan all household spending, RBA rate decision.
Germany industrial orders, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU retail sales, ZEW survey expectations.
U.S. Markit services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx July 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.69
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.
On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG services index.
Germany industrial output, U.K. Halifax house prices, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, redbook, JOLTUS job openings and Canada Ivey PM.
AceTraderFx July 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.86
The greenback’s intra-day selloff below yesterday’s low at 110.40 on active safe-haven jpy buying due to selloff in global stocks and U.S. futures suggests decline from July’s 15-month peak at 111.65 remains in progress and further weakness to 109.20/30 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 109.00 and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the upside, only above 110.40 would indicate a temporary low has been made instead and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 110.80/85.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers outlook, Eco watchers current.
U.K. RICS housing price balance, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada leading index, housing starts, U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims.
AceTraderFx July 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.04
The greenback’s intra-day selloff on Thursday below Wednesday’s low at 110.40 to 109.54 on active safe-haven jpy buying due to selloff in global stocks and U.S. futures suggests decline from July’s 15-month peak at 111.65 remains in progress and further weakness to 109.20/30 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 109.00 and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the upside, only above 110.40 would indicate a temporary low has been made instead and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 110.80/85.
Data to be released on Friday:
China PPI, CPI, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance.
Italy industrial output, Canada employment change, unemployment rate.
U.S. wholesales inventories and wholesales sales.
AceTraderFx July 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.12
Dollar’s rally from last Thursday’s 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.27 in European morning today suggests first leg of correction from July’s 15-month peak at 111.65 has ended and intra-day cross-inspired retreat in tandem with U.S. yields would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 110.81.
Only a daily close below 109.86 signals recovery is over and extends said decline towards next daily chart objective at 109.20.
There is no eco. data due out in the U.S., however, we have NY Fed President Williams n Minneapolis Fed Present Kaskari speaking at 13:30GMT n 16:00GMT respectively.
AceTraderFx July 13 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.33
Dollar’s rally from last Thursday’s 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.27 in European morning today suggests first leg of correction from July’s 15-month peak at 111.65 has ended and intra-day cross-inspired retreat in tandem with U.S. yields would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 110.81.
Only a daily close below 109.86 signals recovery is over and extends said decline towards next daily chart objective at 109.20.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
U.K. BRC retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, France CPI.
U.S. CPI, redbook and Federal budget.
AceTraderFx July 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.49
Dollar’s rally from last Thur’s 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 in Asia today on the back of yesterday’s release of robust U.S. inflation data suggests first leg of correction from Jul’s 15-month peak at 111.65 has ended and gain to 110.90/95 would be seen after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 111.18.
Only a daily close below 109.86 signals recovery is over and extends said decline towards next daily chart objective at 109.20.
After yesterday’s market-moving U.S. CPI data, we have MBA mortgage applications and PPI, then later Fed’s beige book. Traders are anxiously awaiting J.Powels semi-annual testimony at 16:00GMT (look out for release of his prepared text in New York morning) where he is expected to be grilled by U.S. lawmakers on his repeated comments on recent sharp rise in U.S. inflation is ‘transitory’.
If he sounds anything less than dovish, then U.S. yields will jump n the greenback will do too ! Last and possibly the least, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak at 17:30GMT.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major