AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 25 Jan 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 109.12
The greenback’s selloff yesterday and intra-day break of last week’s fresh 4-month trough at 110.20 signals erratic decline from November’s peak at 114.74 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 109.50/55.
However, oversold condition would keep price above 108.90/00 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 111.22 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 111.40/50 before prospect of another retreat later.

[B]Data release on Thursday: [/B]
Germany Gfk consumer confidence, IFO business climate, IFO current assessment, IFO expectations, Italy trade balance, industrial order, industrial sales, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, CBI distributive trades, EU ECB interest rate decision, deposit rate decision.
U.S. building permits, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, new home sales, KC Fed manufacturing, and Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos

AceTraderFx Jan 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 30 Jan 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 108.81
Although dollar has recovered after last Friday’s fall to a fresh 4-month trough at 108.29 and minor consolidation would be seen for 1-2 days, as said move signals medium-term decline has resumed, downside bias is retained for one more fall. Below 108.29 would extend marginally but oversold condition would keep price above 107.70/80 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.77 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.05/10 before prospect of retreat.

The Fed begins its 2-day monetary policy meeting today and this will be Fed Chair Yellen’s final attendance before Fed’s Powell takes over the helm. U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, CaseShiller home prices and consumer confidence.

AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 31 Jan 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 108.72
Although dlr’s daily wild swings following early rebound from last Friday’s fresh 4-month bottom at 108.29 would continue until FOMC rate decision, as long as 109.21 holds, early decline from 114.74 (November) would head to 107.90/00 after consolidation, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.55/60.

A daily close above 109.21 signals temp. low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 109.58, then 109.77 before prospect of retreat later this week.

The FOMC will end its 2-day policy meeting later today and market will scrutinise on the language of the Fed statements to see whether they carry more hawkish tone or not.
However, ahead of that, we have the volatile but important U.S. ADP private payrolls, Chicago PMI and pending home sales data.

AceTraderFx Feb 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 01 Feb 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 109.48
The greenback’s rally to 109.45 yesterday in post-FOMC trading due partly to a hawkish FOMC statement and then intra-day rise above this resistance to 109.64 suggests recent decline has made a temporary low at last Friday’s fresh 4-month trough at 108.29 and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for a stronger retracement to 109.90.
But near term loss of momentum would keep price below 110.20 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 108.60 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk re-test of 108.29, break would extend towards 107.90/00.

[B]Data due out later on Thursday: [/B]
Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, manufacturing, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. initial jobless claims, labor costs, nonfarm productivity, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, and Canada Markit manufacturing PMI.

AceTraderFx Feb 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 05 Feb 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 109.83
Although price has retreated after last Friday’s rally to as high as 110.48 on the back of robust U.S. jobs report and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals upmove from January’s 4-month trough at 108.29 has resumed, upside bias remains and above said resistance would yield stronger retracement towards 110.95/00.

On the downside, only below 109.21 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of said support, break would extend to 107.80/90.

[B]Data out today:[/B]
Australia AIG service index, Japan Markit Service PMI, China Caixin Service PMI.
Italy Markit Service PMI, France, Markit Service PMI, Germany Markit Service PMI, EU Markit Service PMI, sentix index, retail sales, UK Markit Service PMI.
U.S. Markit Service PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Monday

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AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 07 Feb 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 108.93
Although dlr’s erratic rise from Tue’s 108.46 to 109.72 (AUS) today suggests further ‘choppy’ trading above January’s 4-month trough at 108.29 would continue, intra-day sharp retreat due to renewed cross-buying of yen signals consolidation with downside bias remains, reckon 108.55/60 would contain weakness.

Above 109.35/40 would encourage for another rise twd 109.72 but break there needed to retain bullish prospect of stronger gain to 110.00/10.

No major U.S. eco. data is due out but one can have a look for speeches by Dallas Fed’s Kaplan at 11:00GMT, Fed’s Dudley at 13:30GMT and Chicago Fed’s Evans at 15:30GMT.

AceTraderFx Feb 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 09 Feb 2018[/B] [I]10:00 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 109.05
Despite extending decline from yesterday’s 109.79 high to 108.50 initially today, intra-day strong rebound to 109.31 due to cross-selling in yen on late recovery in the Nikkie suggests choppy trading above this week’s low at 108.46 (Tuesday) would continue and marginal gain can’t be ruled out, reckon 109.79 res would cap present rise and yield another retreat,

Below 108.46/50 would bring re-test of Jan’s 4-month bottom at 108.29 but break needed to extend Medium Term fall towards 107.32 next week.

AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 12 Feb 2018[/B] [I]10:00 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 108.73
Despite dollar’s cross-inspired resumption of recent erratic decline to a 5-month bottom of 108.05 on Friday, as price has has risen in tandem with rally in U.S. stocks, suggesting temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store with upside bias.

Above 108.95 (AUS) would encourage for stronger retracement to 109.31, however, reckon res at 109.79 should cap upside and only below 108.26/30 risks weakness to 08.00/05.

[B]Data to be released today: [/B]
Swiss CPI, Canada market holiday, and U.S. Fed budget on Monday

AceTraderFx Feb 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 13 Feb 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 107.68
Despite dollar’s cross-inspired resumption of recent erratic decline to a 5-month bottom of 108.05 on Friday, as price has has risen in tandem with rally in U.S. stocks, suggesting temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store with upside bias.

Above 108.95 (AUS) would encourage for stronger retracement to 109.31, however, reckon res at 109.79 should cap upside and only below 108.26/30 risks weakness to 108.00/05.

U.S. eco. calendar is very thin with Redbook retail sales being the only data due out ahead of Wed’s key inflation n retail sales data.
Last but not least, Cleveland Fed President (voter) will speak on the economic outlook at a breakfast conference at 13:00GMT.

AceTraderFx Feb 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 15 Feb 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.57
Despite the greenback’s selloff below yesterday’s low at 107.41 to a fresh 15-month trough at 106.84 on broad-based buying yen, current rebound suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for retracement to 107.90, however, 108.05/10 should remain intact and yield another fall later today or early tomorrow.

On the upside, only above 108.05 would confirm a bottom has been made and risk stronger correction towards 108.44/50 before prospect of retreat.

After yesterday’s key U.S. inflation data and retail sales, we have initial jobless claims, New York Empire Sate mfg index, Philly Fed mfg survey, final PPI, industrial production, manufacturing output and NAHB Housing Market index.

AceTraderFx Feb 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 20 Feb 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.99
Despite the greenback’s fall to a fresh 15-month trough at 105.55 last Friday, subsequent strong rebound suggests a temporary low has been made there and consolidation with upside bias remains for a retracement to 107.16/20.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 107.54 ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes release and yield a retreat later.

On the downside, only below 106.10 would indicate the recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of 106.55, break, 106.20/25.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]
New Zealand PPI input, PPI output, GDT price index, China market holiday, Germany PPI, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, industrial orders, EU ZEW economic sentiment, consumer confidence, UK CBI industrial trends survey, and Canada wholesale sales.

AceTraderFx Feb 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 22 Feb 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 107.46
Although dollar has retreated in post-FOMC trading after early rally from last Friday’s 15-month trough at 105.55 to 107.90 yesterday and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store, as said move signals medium-term decline has made a temporary low there, upside bias is retained and above 107.90 would extend towards 108.05/10 before prospect of retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 106.73 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 106.50.

U.S. will release weekly initially jobless claims, leading indicators n Kansas City Fed manuf. index during New York morning. A no. Fed officials are speaking also, we have the out-going Fed’s Dudley, Atlantic Fed’s Bostic (voter) and Dallas Fed’s Kaplan (non-voter).

AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 26 Feb 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.62
The greenback’s intra-day break of last Friday’s low at 106.51 strongly suggests correction from February’s 15-month peak at 105.55 has ended at 107.90 last Wednesday and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 106.20/24.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 106.10 today and yield a rebound later.

On the upside, only above 107.28 would indicate pullback from 107.90 has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for gain towards 107.50/60.

[B]Data to be released today: [/B]
U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, and U.S. building permits, national activity index, new home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

AceTraderFx Mar 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 01 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.87
The greenback’s break of last Friday’s low at 106.51 to 106.38 Monday strongly suggests correction from February’s 15-month peak at 105.55 has ended at 107.90 last Wednesday and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 106.20/24, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 106.10 today and yield a rebound later.

On the upside, only above 107.68 would indicate pullback from 107.90 has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of said resistance.

[B]Data out on Thursday: [/B]
Swiss GDP, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Germany import prices, export prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, and Canada Markit manufacturing PMI

AceTraderFx Mar 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 02 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 105.79
The greenback’s selloff from 107.20 to 106.17 yesterday and then intra-day break of this support confirms correction from February’s 15-month trough at 105.55 has ended at 107.90 earlier and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for medium-term decline to resume and yield re-test of said support, break would extend to 105.00/10 before prospect of a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 106.55 would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger gain towards 107.20 before prospect of another retreat early next week.

[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]
Germany retail sales, Italy GDP, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU PPI, Canada GDP, GDP annualized.
U.S. ISM New York index, University of Michigan Sentiment

AceTraderFx Mar 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 06 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.12
The greenback’s selloff last week and subsequent break of February’s 15-month trough at 105.55 to 105.25 on Friday signals medium-term decline remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 105.00/05, then to 104.76/80.
However, oversold condition would keep price above 104.50 and yield a much-needed correction alter this week.

On the upside, only above 106.55 would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger gain towards 107.20 before prospect of another retreat early next week.

BoJ Gov. Kuroda will be speaking b4 the upper housde at 04:00GMT for confirmation hearings. Traders will continue to take cue fm U.S. yields n intra-day movement in the Dow later today. U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, revised durable goods orders n factory orders. Also, out-going NY Fed’s Dudley will made a speech at 12:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Mar 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 07 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:20 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 105.70
The greenback’s selloff last week and subsequent break of February’s 15-month trough at 105.55 to 105.25 on Friday signals medium-term decline remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 105.00/05, then to 104.76/80.
However, oversold condition would keep price above 104.50 and yield a much-needed correction alter this week.

On the upside, only above 106.55 would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger gain towards 107.20 before prospect of another retreat early next week.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]
France, current account, trade balance, imports, exports, EU GDP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, goods trade balance, and Canada housing starts, exports, imports, BoC rate decision, rate statement

AceTraderFx Mar 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 13 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.96
Despite the greenback’s selloff to a fresh 15-month trough at 105.25 in early March, subsequent strong rebound to 106.46 last Tuesday and then rise above this resistance to 107.05 last Friday suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 107.10/20, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 107.68/70 and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 105.89 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended and risk marginal weakness but aforesaid low should remain intact ahead of U.S. jobs report release.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]
France non-farm payrolls, and U.S. core CPI, CPI, Redbook.

AceTraderFx Mar 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 14 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.59
Despite the greenback’s rally to 107.29 yesterday, subsequent selloff on news of President Trump firing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggests correction from March’s 15-month trough at 105.25 has possibly ended there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 106.25, below would add credence to this view and extend towards 105.80/82 later this week.

On the upside, only above 107.29 would revive bullishness for stronger retracement of medium-term decline towards 107.68 but near term loss of momentum would keep price below 108.90 and yield retreat.

After yesterday’s key U.S. CPI data which briefly pushed the pair to session high but was quickly bashed lower on news of firing of Tillerson by Trump, U.S. will release February retail sales and February final PPI data, if the former beats market consensus by a wide margin, dlr may bounce on short covering.

AceTraderFx Mar 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 15 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.04
Despite the greenback’s rally to 107.29 yesterday, subsequent selloff on news of President Trump firing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggests correction from March’s 15-month trough at 105.25 has possibly ended there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 106.25, below would add credence to this view and extend towards 105.80/82 later this week.

On the upside, only above 107.29 would revive bullishness for stronger retracement of medium-term decline towards 107.68 but near term loss of momentum would keep price below 108.90 and yield retreat.

U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, NY Fed mfg index, import and export prices, Philly Fed survey and NAHB housing market index later today.