AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

Trading Discussion Currencies
247

AceTraderFx Mar 19:Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 19 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:10 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 105.92
The greenback’s weakness after last Friday’s fall to 105.60 confirms correction from March’s 15-month trough at 105.25 has ended at 107.29 last Tuesday and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 105.46, below would confirm this view and yield re-test of said support, however, over sold condition would prevent steep fall beyond there and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

ON the upside, only above 106.42 would indicate the pullback from 107.29 has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for gain towards 106.75/80.

[B]Data out today: [/B]
Japan exports, imports, trade balance, China house price.
Italy industrial output, trade balance, EU trade balance, construction output, and UK Rightmove house price on Monday

248

AceTraderFx Mar 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 20 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.44
The greenback’s weakness after last Friday’s fall to 105.60 confirms correction from March’s 15-month trough at 105.25 has ended at 107.29 last Tuesday and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 105.46, below would confirm this view and yield re-test of said support.
However, over sold condition would prevent steep fall beyond there and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 106.75/80 would indicate the pullback from 107.29 has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for gain towards 106.75/80.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, GDT price index, Australia house price index, Japan coincident indicator, leading indicator.
Swiss trade balance, import, export, Germany producer, UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input, PPI output, PPI core output, EU ZEW economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions.
U.S. Redbook sales.

249

AceTraderFx Mar 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 21 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.30
Dollar’s erratic rise from 105.60 (Friday) to 106.61 yesterday suggests further choppy trading above March’s 105.25 bottom would continue and upside bias remains for further gain towards 106.90 ahead of FOMC announcement, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 107.29.

On the downside, below 105.60 (dovish Fed) signals said correction from 105.25 is over and risks re-test of this level later.

Ahead of FOMC announcement, U.S. will release current account n existing home sales.

250

AceTraderFx Mar 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 22 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 105.67
The greenback’s selloff yesterday in New York afternoon on a dovish Federal Reserve rate hike and intra-day fall to 105.58 in Asia confirms early correction from March’s 15-month trough at 05.25 has ended at 107.29 earlier and consolidation with downside bias remains for medium-term decline to resume and yield re-test of said support, break would extend towards 104.77/80 early next week.

On the upside, only above 106.61 would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger retracement to 107.29, break, 107.68 later.

[B]Data out on Thursday: [/B]
Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, all industry activity, France business climate, GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, EU current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, UK retail sales, core retail sales, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, QE total, QE corporate bond purchases.
U.S. initial jobless claims, monthly home price, Markit manufacturing PMI, leading indicator, Markit services PMI, KC Fed Manufacturing.

251

AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 26 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 105.07
The greenback’s fall in Australia and subsequent break of last Friday’s 16-month trough at 104.64 to 104.57 on Trump’s tariffs signals medium-term decline remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 104.15/20 would be seen.
However, over sold condition would keep price above 104.06 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the upside, only above 105.81 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 106.09/10.

[B]Today’s data:[/B]
France GDP, Italy trade balance non-EU, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

252

AceTraderFx Mar 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 27 Mar 2018[/B] [I]10:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 105.60
The greenback’s fall in Australia and subsequent break of last Friday’s 16-month trough at 104.64 to 104.57 on Trump’s tariffs signals medium-term decline remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 104.15/20 would be seen, however, over sold condition would keep price above 104.06 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the upside, only above 105.81 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 106.09/10.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]
Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributive trades.
U.S. redbook, CaseShiller home price, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing.

253

AceTraderFx Mar 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD,JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 28 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 105.55
Despite the greenback’s fall to a fresh 16-month trough at 104.57 on Monday, subsequent strong rebound to 105.90 yesterday suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for retracement towards 106.25 (61.8% of 107.29-104.57).
However, resistance at 106.64 should remain intact this week and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 104.92 would confirm said recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of said support, break would extend weakness to 104.10/20.

BoJ Gov Kuroda will speak in parliament at 05:00GMT. Later today, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with MBA mortgage applications, final Q4 GDP, final Q4 PCE, trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales. Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) will be speaking again at 15:30GMT.

254

AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 29 Mar 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.57
Yesterday’s impressive rally abv 105.90 res to a 2-week peak of 107.01 due to broad-based usd’s strength in New York suggests upmove from Monday’s 16-month trough at 104.57 would head towareds 107.29 after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 107.68 today and risk has increased for a retracement of this week’s strong upmove.

On the downside, below 106.00 anytime confirms 1st leg of correction is over and risks stronger retreat to 105.50/55 before prospect of another rebound next week.

[B]Data to be released on Thursday : [/B]
Swiss KOF indicator, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI preliminary, HICP preliminary, Italy producer price index, U.K. mortgage approvals, GDP.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance

255

AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 03 Apr 2018[/B] [I]10:00 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.12
Although dollar’s selloff in New York yesterday from 106.44 to as low as 105.67 due to safe-haven yen buying on decline in U.S. stocks suggests recent upmove from March’s 104.57 low has made a top at 107.01 earlier.
Intra-day strong bounce suggests choppy sideways swings are in store n as long as 106.44 holds, another fall towards 105.33 is likely later.

Only a daily close above 106.44 signals pullback from 107.01 has possibly ended and may head back towards this res level later this week.

U.S. will release Redbook sales n ISM New York index and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-voter) will speak at 14:30GMT and Fed Governor Brainard will speak at 20:30GMT.

256

AceTraderFx Apr 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 06 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 107.41
Dollar’s intra-day rally above last week’s high at 107.01 to 107.49 yesterday on return of risk appetite due to broad-based rebound in global stocks and rising U.S. yields confirms recent upmove from March’s 104.57 has once again resumed and would head to 107.60/70 after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 107.90 ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report.

On the downside, only below 106.65/69 (previous res, now sup) signals top is in place and risk stronger retracement to 106.41/44, then later towards 105.99.

[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]
China market holiday, Japan household spending, conincident indicator, leading indicator, Germany industrial output, France budget balance, current account, trade balance, imports, exports, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, and Canada employment change, employment rate, Ivey PMI

257

AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 09 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 107.11
Although price has retreated after dollar’s rise to a fresh 1-month peak at 107.49 last week and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals medium-term decline has made a temporary low at March’s 15-month bottom at 104.57, upside bias is retained and above 107.49 would yield stronger retracement towards 107.90.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 108.35/40.

On the downside, only below 105.99 would indicate the first leg of correction has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 105.67/70.

After Friday’s release of key U.S. jobs data, there is no eco. data due out today, so keep an eye on intra-day move in U.S. yields as well as performance of U.S. stocks later in the day.

258

AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 12 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 106.91
Dollar’s intra-day sideways move after early retreat from Tuesday’s high at 107.40 to 106.65 yesterday suggests further choppy trading below last week’s 1-month peak at 107.49 would continue with mild downside bias and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out.
Hhowever, as broad-outlook remains consolidative, reckon 106.41 should remain intact and yield another rebound towards said resistance, break would extend to 107.65 later.

On the downside, only below 106.41 would indicate upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 has ended there and instead and turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement to 106.03.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later in the day starting with weekly jobless claims, import n export prices.
We have 2 Fed Presidents (both non-voters) speaking, Dallas Fed’s Kaplan at 17:00GMT n then Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari) at 21:00GMT.

259

AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 16 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 107.21
Dollar’s intra-day rally and subsequent break of April’s 1-month peak at 107.49 to 107.78 last Friday signals medium-term rise from 104.57 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain towards 107.90/95.
However, over bought condition would prevent sharp rise beyond there and keep price below 108.28/30 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 106.41 would indicate upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 has ended there and instead and turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement to 106.03.

[B]Today’s data:[/B]
Germany wholesale price, Swiss producer import price, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index,

260

AceTraderFx Apr 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 18 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 107.32
Dollar’s intra-day rally and subsequent break of April’s 1-month peak at 107.49 to 107.78 last Friday signals medium-term rise from 104.57 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain towards 107.90/95.
However, over bought condition would prevent sharp rise beyond there and keep price below 108.28/30 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 106.41 would indicate upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 has ended there and instead and turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement to 106.03.

No major U.S. eco. data is due out today except Fed beige book at 18:00GMT.
Today, we have more Fed officials delivering speeches starting with New York Fed Dudley at 12:30GMT, then again at 19:00GMT, after that, we have Fed’s Quarles at at 20:15GMT.

261

AceTraderFx Apr 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 19 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 107.32
Dollar’s intra-day rally and subsequent break of April’s 1-month peak at 107.49 to 107.78 last Friday signals medium-term rise from 104.57 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain towards 107.90/95.
However, over bought condition would prevent sharp rise beyond there and keep price below 108.28/30 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 106.41 would indicate upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 has ended there and instead and turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement to 106.03.

[B]Data to be released on Thursday: [/B]
EU current account, U.K. retail sales, core retail sales, initial jobless claims, leading indicator.
Canada ADP employment change

262

AceTraderFx Apr 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 20 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 107.59
Despite dollar’s fall from last Friday’s 6-week peak at 107.78 to 106.88 Tuesday, subsequent strong rebound to 107.73 in Asia today confirms the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for recent erratic upmove to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend towards 107.90/00.
However, loss of momentum would keep price below 108.29 and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 106.41 would indicate upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 has ended there instead and turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement to 106.03.

[B]Data to be released on Friday : [/B]
Germany producer prices, Canada CPI, CPI BoC core, core CPI, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, and EU consumer confidence

263

AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 23 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 107.89
Dollar’s intra-day break of last Friday’s 7-week peak at 107.86 signals upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain towards 108.29 would be seen.
However, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 108.50/60 would remain intact and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 107.10 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement towards 106.62 later.

[B]Data to be released later today: [/B]
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada wholesale sales, and U.S. national activity index, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales.

264

AceTraderFx Apr 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 26 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 109.35
Dollar’s intra-day break of yesterday’s 2-month peak at 109.45 yesterday signals upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain towards 109.79/80.
However, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 110.00 would remain intact and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 107.10 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement towards 106.62 later.

[B]Data out later on Thursday :[/B]
Germany Gfk consumer confidence, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, CBI distributive trades, EU ECB interest rate decision, deposit rate decision.
U.S. durable goods, durable goods ex-transportation, durable goods ex-defence, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, Kansas Fed manufacturing activity.

265

AceTraderFx Apr 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 30 Apr 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 109.27
Although price has retreated after Friday’s rise to a fresh 10-week peak at 109.54 on dollar’s broad-based strength and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 has resumed.
Upside bias remains and above said resistance would extend marginally. However, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.00 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 108.55 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk a stronger retracement towards 107.90 before prospect of rebound.

U.S. will release of a slew of eco. data starting with Mar core CPI, personal income and spending, Chicago PMI, pending home sales abd Dallas Fed mfg index.

266

AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 02 May 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 109.82
Despite dollar’s intra-day sideways swings after retreating from an 11-week high of 109.92 (AUS) and minor consolidation is expected, outlook remains mildly bullish for recent upmove to head to 110.20/25.
However, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 110.48 and yield a much-needed correction.

Only a daily close below 109.52 (Tuesday’s New York low) confirms temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement to 108.96/00 before prospect of a rebound later this week.

On the eco. data front, U.S. will release MBA Mortgage applications, then the key ADp private payrolls, ISM New York index and then FOMC rate decision and statement at 18:00GMT, as there is no presser after the meeting, market expects no change in Fed’s monetary policy until next June 12-13 meeting.