AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 03 May 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.67
Although the greenback has retreated in post-FOMC trading after earlier rise to a fresh 4-month peak at 110.04 yesterday and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of Friday’s release of U.S. jobs report, as said move signals erratic rise from March’s trough at 104.57 has resumed, upside bias is retained and above said resistance would extend towards 110.25/30 before prospect of a correction early next week.
On the downside, only below 109.09 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.90/95.
However, 108.13 should remain intact and yield rebound.
Although market’s next attention is Fri’s U.S. jobs data, today, we have U.S. Markit services PMI, March durable goods order (revisions) and ISM non-mfg PMI.
AceTraderFx May 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 04 May 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.05
Although the greenback has retreated in post-FOMC trading after earlier rise to a fresh 4-month peak at 110.04 yesterday and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of today’s release of U.S. jobs report, as said move signals erratic rise from March’s trough at 104.57 has resumed, upside bias is retained and above said resistance would extend towards 110.25/30 before prospect of a correction early next week.
On the downside, only below 108.75/80 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.50/55.
However, 108.13 should remain intact and yield rebound.
U.S. will release a slew of data starting with NFP, average earnings n unemployment rate due out at 12:30GMT.
After that, we have 3 Fed officials delivering speeches in New York afternoon session.
AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 09 May 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.74
The greenback’s intra-day rally on rising U.S. yields suggests correction from last Wednesday’s 11-week peak 110.04 has ended at 108.65 last Friday and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for recent upmove to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend recent erratic uptrend towards 110.40 but loss of momentum would keep price below 110.80/90 and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 108.65 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 107.86/90 before prospect of rebound.
[B]Data to be later: [/B]
France industrial output, Italy retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, PPI, core PPI, wholesales inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada building permits.
AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 14 May 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.54
Despite the greenback’s rise to 110.02 last Thursday, subsequent retreat to 109.15 Friday on dollar’s broad-based weakness suggests choppy trading below May’s 11-week peak at 110.04 would continue with downside bias and weakness towards 108.84 is likely to be seen.
However, 108.65 (reaction low) would remain intact and yield another rise towards said resistance early next week. Above would retain bullishness for gain towards 110.44/50.
On the downside, only below 108.65 would confirm a temporary top has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement towards 108.10/20.
There is no eco. data due out from the U.S., however, 2 Fed Presidents will be speaking today starting with Cleveland Fed’s Mester (voter) at 06:45GMT in Paris n later St. Louis Fed’s Bullard (non-voter) at 13:40GMT in New York.
AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 17 May 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 110.58
The greenback’s rise above May’s near 11-week peak at 110.04 to 110.45 yesterday, then 110.63 today on a rally in U.S. yields suggests erratic upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 has finally resumed and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for stronger gain towards 110.80/84.
However, loss of momentum would keep price below 111.00 and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the downside, only below 109.55 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 109.42 but support at 109.15 should remain intact and yield rebound later this week.
[B]Data to out on Thursday : [/B]
New Zealand PPI input, PPI output, Japan machinery orders, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
France ILO unemployment rate, Italy trade balance EUR, trade balance non-EU, EU construction output, trade balance EUR.
U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, and Canada ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 18 May 2018[/B] [I]09:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 110.95
Intra-day break above yesterday’s 110.86 high to a fresh 3-1/2 month peak of 111.00 in Asia due to continued rise in U.S. yields suggests marginal gain would be seen after consolidation, near term loss of upward momentum should cap price below minor res at 111.48 and risk has increased for a correction to take place.
On the downside, only a daily close below 110.45 (previous res, now sup) signals temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement to 110.04/08 before prospect of rebound.
Although no U.S. eco. data is due out today, 3 prominent Fed officials will be speaking during the day, starting with Cleveland Fed President Mester (voter) at 07:00GMT in Frankfurt, then Dallas Fed’s Kaplan (non-voter) at 13:15GMT and also at the same time but in a different place, Fed Board Gov. Brainard (voter).
AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 21 May 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 111.36
The greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-1/2 month peak at 111.08 on Friday on rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break of this resistance signals upmove from March’s trough at 104.57 remains in progress and further gain towards 111.88/90 would be seen.
However, over bough condition would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later this week.
On the downside, only below 110.61 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.45/50 before prospect of a rebound.
[B]Data out today:[/B]
New Zealand retail sales, Japan exports, imports, trade balance.
Swiss market holiday, France market holiday, Germany market holiday, U.K. Rightmove house price.
Canada market holiday, and U.S. National activity index on Monday.
AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 23 May 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.88
Dollar’s intra-day selloff which started in Asia and then break of previous 110.04 sup in Europe due to falling U.S. yields confirms Medium Term rise from 2018 bottom at 104.57 (March) has indeed made a temporary high at 111.40 (Monday) and downside bias remains for stronger correction to 109.15/25.
On the upside, only a daily close above 110.61 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement to 110.90/00.
On the U.S. eco. data front, all eyes are on the release of last FOMC meeting minutes at 18:00GMT, before that, we have MBA mortgage application, building permits, Markit mfg and services indices, and then new home sales.
Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (non-voter) will speak at 18:15GMT.
AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 24 May 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.64
Dollar’s intra-day selloff which started in Asia and then break of previous 110.04 sup in Europe due to falling U.S. yields confirms Medium T rise from 2018 bottom at 104.57 (Mar) has indeed made a temporary high at 111.40 (Mon) and downside bias remains for stronger correction to 109.15/25.
On the upside, only a daily close above 110.61 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement to 110.90/00.
[B]Data to be released on Thursday : [/B]
Germany Gfk consumer confidence, GDP, France business climate, U.K. retail sales, core retail sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, monthly home price, existing home sales, Kansas Fed manufacturing activity.
AceTraderFx May 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 29 May 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 108.61
The greenback’s intra-day selloff and subsequent break of last week’s low at 109.96 signals decline from May’s peak at 111.40 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 108.30/32 would be seen.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above 108.00/05 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 109.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.04 before prospect of retreat.
Expect trading to swing back to normal in Europe due to closure of U.K. and U.S. markets on Monday and many Asian centres today.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with CaseShiller home price index, then consumer confidence and Dallas Fed mfg activity index.
AceTraderFx May 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 30 May 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 108.65
The greenback’s intra-day selloff and subsequent break of last week’s low at 109.96 signals decline from May’s peak at 111.40 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 108.30/32 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 108.00/05 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 109.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.04 before prospect of retreat.
AceTraderFx Jun 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 01 Jun 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.11
The greenback’s intra-day selloff and subsequent break of last week’s low at 109.96 signals decline from May’s peak at 111.40 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 108.30/32 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 108.00/05 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 109.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.04 before prospect of retreat.
Today is the first trading day of a new month as well as the 1st Fri of Jun, so we have release of the blockbuster U.S. NFP as well as other jobs data including the important average hourly earnings, if readings of these 2 data beat forecast, then the greenback would strength across the board, however, if they miss estimate, then be prepared for a stronger retracement of recent usd uptrend after hitting a 6-month high of 95.025 (Tuesday).
U.S. will also release Markit mfg PMI, then ISM mfg PMI n construction spending. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will be speaking at 12:55GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 04 Jun 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.48
Despite the greenback’s selloff to as low as 108.12 last Tuesday, subsequent strong rebound to 109.74 suggests the first leg of correction from May’s peak at 111.40 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen.
However, above 110.15 (61.8% r) is needed to confirm this view and yield gain towards 110.33.
On the downside, only below 109.08 (previous resistance) would indicate said recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 108.39 later this week.
[B]Data to be released today: [/B]
Swiss non-farm payrolls, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU sentix index, producer prices.
U.S. ISM New York index, durables ex-defence, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, factory orders.
AceTraderFx Jun 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 07 Jun 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.88
The greenback’s break of Tuesday’s high at 110.00 to 110.26 yesterday strongly suggests early correction from May’s peak at 111.40 has ended at 108.12 last Tuesday and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen, above 110.32 would add credence to this view and extend towards 110.80/90.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 111.40 this week and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.37 would indicate said recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 109.08.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light today with the usual weekly jobless claims being the only data due out.
AceTraderFx Jun 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 08 Jun 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.31
Despite the greenback’s break of Tuesday’s high at 110.00 to 110.26 Wednesday, subsequent selloff suggests recovery from May’s 5-week trough at 108.12 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 109.08, below would confirm this view and extend towards 108.70/72.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 108.50/55.
On the upside, only above 109.85 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended ended instead and turn outlook bullish for gain towards 110.26.
[B]Data out later on Friday : [/B]
France industrial output, Canada housing starts, capacity utilization, employment change, unemployment rate, and U.S. wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Jun 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 11 Jun 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.96
Despite the greenback’s rise to as high as 110.26 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.20 Friday suggests recovery from May’s 5-week trough at 108.12 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 109.08, below would confirm this view and extend towards 108.70/72.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 108.50/55.
On the upside, only above 110.26 would revive bullishness for stronger retracement of decline from May’s peak at 111.40 towards 110.50/52.
[B]Data to release later : [/B]
Italy industrial output, and U.K. construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 14 Jun 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.98
Despite the greenback’s brief spike up to 110.85 in New York afternoon yesterday on Fed’s rate hike, subsequent selloff to 110.09 in Australia today and subsequent break of this support suggests erratic upmove from May’s trough at 108.12 has made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for stronger retracement towards 108.60, however, said low should hold on first testing.
On the upside, only above 110.35 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend to 111.07/10 before down.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with weekly jobless claims, import and export prices, May retail sales n business inventories.
AceTraderFx Jun 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 19 Jun 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 109.71
The greenback’s intra-day selloff in Asia to 109.55 at European open on safe-haven buying of yen after Trump announced additional tariffs on China suggests recent erratic rise from 108.12 has made a temporary top at Monday’s 3-week peak at 110.90 and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 109.10/20.
However, over sold condition would keep price above 108.70/72.
On the upside, only above 110.30 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for gain towards 110.61, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of 110.90.
[B]Data to be released on Tuesday : [/B]
EU current account, construction output and U.S. building permit, housing starts, redbook
AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 21 Jun 2018[/B] [I]9:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 110.59
Despite the greenback’s selloff from last Friday’s 3-week peak at 110.90 to 109.55 Tuesday on increased trade tensions between U.S. and China, subsequent rebound to 110.76 today suggests aforesaid pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from May’s peak at 108.12 to resume and yield re-test of aforesaid resistance, break would extend towards 111.10/20 before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.55 would indicate a temporary top has been made instead and risk stronger retracement towards 109.20.
U,S, eco. calendar is pretty light with initial weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed survey and monthly home price. Also, we have a slew of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session (please refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Jun 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 22 Jun 2018[/B] [I]10:30 GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 110.12
Despite rising to 110.76 in Asia yesterday, subsequent selloff to 109.85 in New York on falling U.S. Treasury yields suggests choppy trading below last week’s high at 110.90 would continue with downside bias for weakness to 109.55, break would extend decline to 109.20.
On the upside, only above 110.75 would indicate pullback has ended instead and risks re-test of 110.90.
Today is PMI day where the U.S. will release Markit mfg & services PMI at 13:45GMT.