AceTraderFx Mar 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.27
Dollar’s intra-day resumption of recent decline from last Friday’s 111.90 high to 111.16 in Asia suggests recovery from March’s 110.79 low has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 110.90/95 but loss of momentum should keep price above 110.79 and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 111.63 would indicate temporary low made and risk gain towards 111.90/92.
Data to be released later today:
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy trade balance, UK claimant count, ILO unenmployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU construction output, labour costs, ZEW economic sentiment.
U.S. redbook, durables ex-defense, durable goods, durables ex-transport, factory orders.
AceTraderFx Mar 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.57
The greenback’s rise to 111.68 in Asia suggests pullback from last Friday’s high at 111.90 has ended at 111.16 yesterday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 111.83, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 111.90 and yield another fall towards 111.16 later, below would extend marginally before prospect of rebound.
On the downside, only below 110.79 would signal decline from March’s 10-week peak at 112.14 has resumed and yield weakness to 110.60/65.
Market focus is on today’s FOMC decision at 18:00GMT and although it is widely expected the central bank will keep its rate unchanged, traders should pay particular attention to Chairman Powell’s press conference at 18:30GMT and his tone in regards to the rate path the central bank will undertake this year.
AceTraderFx Mar 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.35
Dollar’s selloff yesterday and then break of previous sup at 110.79 to a near 3-week low of 110.54 after Fed’s dovish hold suggests recent decline from March’s 10-week high at 112.14 has once again resumed and further weakness towards 110.10/15 would be seen but oversold condition should keep price above 109.90/00.
On the upside, only above 111.01 would indicate temporary low has been made instead, risk stronger retracement to 111.38.
Pay attention to the release of US jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
Street forecast is for a drop to 225k from previous reading of 229k.
AceTraderFx Mar 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.10
Dollar’s intra-day brief break of Friday’s 5-week low at 109.74 to 109.71 in Asia due to selloff in Nikkei-225 suggests recent decline from March’s 10-week peak at 112.14 has resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall towards 109.15/25.
On the upside, only above 110.30 would indicate temporary low made and yield stronger retracement towards 110.65.
Data to be released later:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, and U.S. Chicago national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Mar 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.59
Dollar’s intra-day brief break above yesterday’s 110.69 high on renewed usd’s strength suggests recent decline from March’s 10-week high at 112.14 has made a temporary low at Monday’s 5-week low of 109.71 and further gain towards 111.10/15 would be seen after consolidation but loss of momentum should cap price below 111.21.
On the downside, only below 110.24 would prolong choppy trading, risk weakness towards 109.94.
Data to be released later:
France consumer confidence, producer prices, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance,Swiss investor sentiment, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, trade balance, current account, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports, average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx Mar 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.19
Dollar’s fall from Wednesday’s 110.71 high to 110.02 in Europe today suggests correction from Monday’s 5-week low at 109.71 has ended there and below 109.71 would extend recent decline from March’s 10-week peak at 112.14 towards 109.56/60, then 109.26.
On the upside, only above 110.71 would risk gain towards 110.96/00.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. GDP and GDP deflator at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts see a slower rate of growth at 2.4% and 1.8% vs previous readings of 2.6% and 2.0% respectively.
AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.02
Dollar’s intra-day gap-up open above lat Friday’s 110.95 top on upbeat China PMI data over the weekend and then gained to a 10-day high at 111.19 in Asian morning suggests recent upmove from last Monday’s 5-week low at 109.71 has resumed and would head towards 111.40/45 after consolidation.
On the downside, only below 110.53/54 would indicate temporary top made and risk weakness towards 110.24, then possibly 110.02.
Data out later today:
Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, HICP.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, business inventories, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Apr 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.37
Dollar’s intra-day brief break of yesterday’s 111.44 high to 111.46 in Australia suggests recent upmove from last Monday’s 5-week trough at 109.71 remains in progress, subsequent retreat would bring range trading before price heads to 111.70/80 but loss of momentum may cap price below 111.90/92.
On the downside, only below 110.82 would indicate temporary top made, risk weakness towards 110.53/54.
Data out on Tuesday :
New Zealand NZIER business confidence, GDT price index, Australia building permits, RBA interest rate decision.
Swiss CPI, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, redbook, ISM New York index.
AceTraderFx Apr 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.52
Dollar’s intra-day rise at Asian open on positive U.S.-China trade talk news and then break of yesterday’s high at 111.46 to 111.58 at European open suggests recent upmove from last Monday’s 5-week trough of 109.71 remains in force and re-test of March’s 112.14 high would be seen after consolidation.
On the downside, only below 111.19 would risk stronger retracement towards 110.82 before prospect of rebound.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. Markit services PMI, MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Apr 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.35
Dollar’s resumption of recent upmove from March’s 5-week low at 109.71 to 111.58 yesterday suggests correction from March’s 10-week high at 112.14 has ended there and subsequent retreat would bring range trading before another re-test of 112.14, where break would extend rise from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 towards 112.69 later.
On the downside, only below 111.19 would indicate temporary top made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.82 before prospect of rebound.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
Street forecast is for an increase to 216k from previous reading of 211k. Elsewhere, keep an eye out on comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, who is set to speak on the economic outlook before the Monetary Policy Outlook hosted by the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics at 17:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.46
Although dollar’s intra-day retreat in Asia to 111.35 due to active cross-unwinding in Japanese yen suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top at Fri’s near 3-week high in post-NFP New York morning and choppy consolidation is in store, as long as 111.19/21 sup area holds, upside bias remains for marginal gain, ‘loss of momentum’ should cap price below Mar’s high at 112.14.
A daily close below 111.19 would risk stronger retracement towards 110.82 before prospect of rebound later this week.
Data out later today:
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index.
Canada housing starts, building permits, and U.S. durables ex-defense, durable goods, durables ex-transportation on Monday.
AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.27
Despite dollar’s initial brief bounce to 111.58 in Asia, intra-day marginal break of yesterday’s 111.29 low (New York) suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top at Friday’s near 3-week peak at 111.82 and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement, reckon sup at 110.82 would contain weakness and bring rebound.
On the upside, only above 111.58/68 signals pullback is over and risk is seen for re-test of 111.82, then towards March’s peak at 112.14 later this week.
U.S. eco. data is pretty light today with Redbook retail sales and JOLTS job openings being the only data due out in New York morning.
AceTraderFx Apr 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.17
Dollar’s decline from last week’s 111.82 (Fri) high to 110.98 yesterday due to safe-haven yen buying suggests recent cross-inspired upmove from March’s 5-week bottom at 109.71 has made a temporary top and despite subsequent recovery, outlook remains bearish for weakness to 110.82 objective, loss of downward momentum should keep price above previous 110.53/54 sup.
Only a daily close above 111.40 indicates pullback has ended, then risk is seen for gain to 111.58, break would yield re-test of 111.82.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, EU ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget, FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx Apr 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Apr 2019 0 9:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.12
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from last Friday’s near 3-week high at 111.82 to an 8-day low of 110.85 in New York yesterday, subsequent rebound suggests temporary bottom made and consolidation with mild upside bias towards 111.28/29 would be seen, however, 111.57/58 would cap upside.
On the downside, only below 110.85 would extend marginal fall to 110.53/54 before prospect of rebound due to loss of momentum.
After yesterday’s U.S. CPI data n FOMC minutes, we have a slew of data due out later in the day starting with weekly initial jobless claims, final Marcg PPI and core PPI.
Pay attention to speeches by a number of Fed officials (please refer to our EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.94
Intra-day cross-inspired break above last Friday’s 111.82 high to a 1-month top of 111.95 confirms recent upmove from March’s 5-week low of 109.71 has resumed and would yield re-test of March’s 112.14 high, where break would extend medium term rise from January’s 9-month 104.79 trough towards 112.30/40 but 112.69 may hold.
On the downside, only below 111.57/58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28/29.
T.G.I.F., U.S. will release import n export prices and then University of Michigan consumer confidence.
We also have the second day of the 2-day IMF and World Bank meeting where a number of govt. finance officials will be speaking (please refer to our EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.94
Although dollar’s retreat after intra-day 1-tick break of Friday’s high at 112.09 suggests consolidation is in store before a re-test of March’s 10-week peak at 112.14 is forthcoming and a break there would extend upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 towards 112.35 later, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction.
On the downside, only below 111.28 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.83 later this week
Data to be released today:
Swiss producer/import price, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.92
Although dollar’s retreat after yesterday’s 1-tick break of Friday’s high at 112.09 suggests consolidation is in store before a re-test of March’s 10-week peak at 112.14 is forthcoming and a break there would extend upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 towards 112.35 later, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction.
On the downside, only below 111.28 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.83 later this week.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with Redbook sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, mfg output, whilesales inventories, NAHB Housing Market index and Fed’s beige book.
We also have Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-voter) who’s participating in a moderated question-and-answer session before a community forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.06
Dollar’s intra-day rise to a near 4-month high at 112.17 at Asian open confirms medium term upmove from Jan’s 9-month trough of 104.79 has resumed, subsequent retreat would bring range trading before price extends to 112.50/55 but loss of momentum should cap price below 112.67.
On the downside, only below 111.58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28 before rebound.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Italy consumer prices, trade balance, global EU current account, trade balance, HICP, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, trade balance, wholesale sales, and Canada CPI, trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx Apr 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.87
Although dollar has retreated after yesterday’s brief rise to a near 4-month high at 112.17 at Asian open and range trading would be seen before medium term upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 resumes and head towards 112.50/55 but reckon 112.67 would cap upside.
On the downside, only below 111.58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28, then possibly 111.00/05.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany producer prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss trade balance, imports, exports, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK retail sales, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, business inventories, leading indicator, and Canada ADP employment change, retail sales.
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.87
Despite dollar’s intra-day sharp fall to 111.66 in Asian morning due to broad-based yen buying, subsequent rebound to 111.93 at European open suggests pullback from last Wed’s near 4-month peak at 112.17 has possibly ended, above 111.98/02 would bring re-test of 112.17, where break would extend medium term upmove from 104.79 (January) towards 112.35, then 112.60/67 later.
On the downside, only below 111.58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28, then 110.90/95.
Data out later:
Swiss market holiday, UK market holiday, Germany market holiday, Italy market holiday, France market holiday.
U.S. Chicago national activity index, existing home sales.