AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.81
Although dollar has retreated after resumption of upmove from Jan’s 9-month trough of 104.79 to a near 4-month high at 112.17 last Wed, yesterday’s rebound from 111.66 (Asia) to 112.03 in New York signals range trading would be seen before price extends towards 112.40/45 but loss of momentum should cap price below 112.67 and yield correction.
On the downside, only below 111.58/66 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28, then 111.00/05.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
France business climate, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy trade balance, Swiss investor sentiment, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
U.S. MBA mortgage application and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Apr 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.86
Although dollar’s retreat after yesterday’s rally to a 4-month peak at 112.39 in New York suggests medium term upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top there and range trading would be seen before price head towards 112.67 later but loss of momentum should limit upside to 113.00.
On the downside, only below 111.66 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.58, then 111.28/33.
Ahead of Friday’s key U.S. GDP, we have the usual weekly jobless claims, durable goods order and KC Fed mfg index.
AceTraderFx Apr 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.69
Although yesterday’s decline to 111.38 in New York confirms recent upmove has made a temporary top at Wed’s 4-month peak at 112.39 and range trading is seen ahead of key U.S. GDP data, as long as daily sup at 110.85 holds, upside bias remains and above 112.00/05 signals pullback is over and may head towards 112.67 early next week.
Only below 110.85 signals long-awaited correction has occurred and risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 110.00/10 later.
Data to be released later:
France consumer confidence, UK BBA mortgage approvals, CBI trends survey, and U.S. GDP, PCE, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.75
Despite dollar’s brief jump to 112.03 in New York on Fri due to robust U.S. GDP data, subsequent fall to 111.43 on soft U.S. PCE suggests further choppy trading below last Wed’s 4-month peak at 112.39 would be seen, intra-day rebound would bring range trading before another decline but 111.00/10 should hold.
On the upside, above 112.03 would bring re-test of 112.39, break, 112.60/67.
Below 110.85 would risk retracement towards 110.53/58.
On the U.S. data front, we have personal income, core PCE price index, PCE price index and Dallas Fed mfg business index.
AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.53
Despite the greenback’s fall to 111.05 in post-FOMC trading, subsequent rally to 111.61 in New York afternoon on Powell’s usd supportive comments and intra-day break of this resistance suggests decline from April’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 111.90, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 112.05/10 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 111.05 would revive bearishness for weakness to 110.85, then 110.53 before prospect of a much-needed correction.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit construction PMI, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, and U.S. initial jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport.
AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.49
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from Apr’s 4-month high at 112.39 to a 2-1/2 week low at 111.05 Wed, subsequent rally to 111.61 in post-FOMC, then 111.66 yesterday suggests pullback has ended and further gain towards 112.10/17 would be seen but 112.39 should hold on first testing.
On the downside, only below 111.05 would risk weakness towards 110.85, break, 110.52/53 later.
Data to be released on Friday:
Swiss consumer confidence, CPI, UK Markit services PMI, EU HICP, producer prices.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.74
Dollar’s intra-day gap-down open to 110.54 in New Zealand following U.S. President Trump’s tweet to threaten more trade tariffs on China on Sunday, and then lower 110.28 in Asia suggests recent decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has once again resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall towards 110.00/10 later.
On the upside, only above 111.05 would indicate temporary low made and risk retracement towards 111.35/37.
Data to be released later:
UK market holiday, Italy Markit s**ervices PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI and EU Markit services PMI, Sentix index, retail sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.65
Although dollar has rebounded after yesterday’s gap-down open and then lower to a 5-week bottom at 110.28 in Asian morning, as 110.95 (New York) has capped recovery, consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of 110.28, break would extend recent decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 towards 110.00 but 109.71 should hold.
On the upside, only above 111.05 would indicate temporary low made and risk retracement towards 111.35/37.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light with Redbook sales n JOLTS job openings being the only data due out. We have Fed Vice Chair Quarles speaking at Yale University 15:35GMT but the topic is on financial regulation.
AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.15
Dollar’s intra-day firm break below yesterday’s 110.17 low to a fresh 5-week bottom of 109.91 in Asian morning on selloff in Nikkei suggests recent decline from April’s 4-month peak at 112.39 remains in progress, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall to 109.71 (March low) later, break, 109.55/60.
On the upside, only above 110.60 would indicate temporary low made instead and risk stronger retracement towards 110.85/95.
Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty thin with Germn industrial output being the only data due out. ECB’s Draghi wil have dialogue with a group of youth at a student award event in FFT, so one can expect him to speak on something totally unrelated to ECB’s monetary policy right.
AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.67
Dollar’s initial break of yesterday’s low at 109.91 to a fresh 5-week low at 109.84 at Asian open on Trump’s comments, and then present fall after remarks from China Commerce Ministry suggests decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has resumed and further weakness towards 109.15/25 would be seen but loss of momentum should keep price above 108.73.
On the upside, only above 110.28 would indicate temporary low made, risk gain towards 110.60/70.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS housing price balance, U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, PPI, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada new housing price index, trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.67
Although dollar’s intra-day rally from 109.15 in Australia to 109.77 in Europe suggests recent decline from April’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low at yesterday’s 13-week bottom of 109.02 and stronger retracement towards 110.00/05 would be seen before prospect of retreat.
Only above 110.28/32 would risk gain towards 110.60 while below 109.02 would risk another fall to 108.73, then 108.50.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (see EI for details) and we have S.F. Fed President Williams speaking at a conference in Zurich at 07:15GMT, then Kansas City Fed’s George will speaking at 16:45GMT.
AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.49
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 to a 3-month low of 109.02 on Mon, yesterday’s strong rebound to 109.77 suggests temporary low is in place and range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall but reckon 108.50 should hold, yield rebound.
On the upside, above 109.77 would extend marginal gain to 110.00/05 but 110.28/32 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Germany GDP, France CPI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, EU employment, GDP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, and Canada CPI.
AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.47
Despite dollar’s fall from 109.70 in Europe to 109.16 (New York) yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 109.68 suggests choppy trading above Monday’s 3-month low at 109.02 would continue, intra-day retreat would bring range trading before prospect of another rise but 110.05 should remain intact and yield another decline.
Only below 109.16 would risk re-test of 109.02, break may yield marginal weakness towards 108.84 before rebound.
U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, building permits, housing starts, Philly Fed survey all due out at 12:30GMT, so one can expected market reaction after this data dump. Also, pay attention to speeches by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Fed Governor Brainard near New York mid-day.
AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.67
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from Mon’s 3-month trough of 109.02 to 110.03 in Asian morning today, subsequent fall to 109.55 at European open on renewed U.S.-China trade tension suggests recovery has ended and price would head to 109.15/16 after range trading.
On the upside, only a daily close above 110.05 would risk gain towards 110.28/32, then possibly 110.60/70.
On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please see our EI page for details). Also we have a number of Fed officials speaking in New York session later (see EI page for details).
AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.12
Although dollar has retreated after Monday’s rise to a 1-week high at 110.32 in Asia, as 109.81 (New York) has contained weakness, upside bias is retained for recent upmove from last Monday’s 3-month trough at 109.02 to resume and extend to 110.50/60 before prospect of decline due to loss of momentum, below 109.50 would bring re-test of 109.02.
On the upside, only above 110.70 would risk stronger gain towards 111.05.
Market has shown muted reaction to early comments by Fed’s J. Powell. U.S. will release Redbook sales, existing home sales in New York morning. Also we have Fed’s Evans n Fed’s Rosengren speaking later today.
AceTraderFx May 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.39
Dollar’s rally from 110.07 in Europe to a 2-week high at 110.67 in New York on broad-based gains in U.S. stocks yesterday suggests recent upmove from last Monday’s 3-month trough of 109.02 has resumed and further gain to 110.85/95 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 111.05 should hold and yield retreat.
Below 110.07 would indicate temporary top made and extend weakness towards 109.81.
Above 110.05 risks gain to 111.35/38.
U.S. calendar is very thin with MBA mortgage applications being the only data due out ahead of release of FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT. We have a number of Fed officials delivering speeches today (see EI page for details).
For Asian traders, pay attention to a club lunch speech titled “The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (voting member) who is speaking at The Foreign Correspondents’ Club in Hong Kong at 05:00GMT.
AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.25
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from May’s 3-month trough at 109.02 to a 2-week high of 110.67 on Tuesday, subsequent retreat to 110.13 in Asia today suggests temporary top is possibly made n consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 109.45/50 but 109.15/16 should hold and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 110.67 would risk one more rise towards 111.90/00 before retreat.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with weekly jobless claims, building permits, Markit mfg and services PMIs, new home sales and Kansas City Fed Mfg index. We also have a number of Fed officials speaking during New York session (please refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.56
Although dollar has recovered to 109.75 in Asian morning after yesterday’s selloff, subsequent retreat suggests pullback has ended and recent decline from Tuesday’s 110.67 would resume and bring re-test of May’s 3-month bottom at 109.02, where break would extend fall from April’s 112.39 high to 108.50.
On the upside, only above 110.07 would prolong choppy trading and risk retracement towards 110.32/37.
U.S. will release Apr durable goods order at 12:30GMT and no speech is scheduled by Fed officials. T.G.I.F.
AceTraderFx May 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.54
Dollar’s selloff from last Tuesday’s near 2-week high at 110.67 to 109.28 Friday suggests early correction from May’s 3-month low at 109.02 has ended, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall and below 109.02 would extend decline April’s 112.39 high to 108.82/87, however, reckon 108.50 sup should hold.
On the upside, only a daily close above 109.75 would indicate temporary bottom made and risk retracement towards 110.07/10.
Data to be released today:
Japan coincident index, leading economic index, Swiss non-farm payrolls, UK market holiday, and U.S. market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.30
Dollar’s intra-day retreat from 109.63 in Asia suggests recovery from last Friday’s 109.28 low has ended and below said sup would bring re-test of May’s 3-month trough of 109.02, break would extend decline from 2019 peak at 112.39 (April) to 108.82/87, however, reckon 108.50 sup should hold.
On the upside, only above 109.75 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.90/00 before retreat.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Swiss GDP, trade balance, exports, imports, Germany GfK consumer sentiment, import prices, France consumer confidence, Italy trade balance, UK BBA mortgage approvals, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.