AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.55
Dollar’s daily wild swings in the past week following rebound from last Mon’s fresh 7-month trough at 105.06 to 106.97 last Tue are expected to continue, yesterday’s rebound from 106.17 (New York) and intra-day strength suggests range trading would be seen before price head towards 105.66.
Only above 106.69 may risk gain to 106.97, break would extend said upmove towards 107.20/27 before retreat.
Data to be released later:
UK PSNB, PSNCR, U.S. existing home sales, MBA mortgage applications.
Canada CPI, CPI BOC core, CPI, core CPI.
AceTraderFx Aug 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.45
Although dollar’s sideways swings following early rebound from last Monday’s fresh 7-month trough at 105.06 to 106.97 last Tuesday are expected to continue, Monday’s retreat from 106.69 to 106.17 on Tuesday would bring range trading before price head towards 105.66 before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, only above 106.97 would risk further gain to 107.09 but 107.57 should hold, yield correction.
Ahead of Friday’s J. Powell’s speech, pay attention to release of U.S. eco. data later in the day starting with initial weekly jobless claims, Markit mfg and services PMIs and Kansas City mfg index.
Also we have Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (2019 non-voter and a dove) speaking at 18:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Aug 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.63
Although dollar’s retreat from last Tuesday’s 106.97 high to 105.66 (Wednesday) suggests correction from August’s 7-month trough at 105.06 has ended there, subsequent brief spike up to 106.78 last Thursday, and then retreat to 106.17 Tuesday would yield further choppy trading before prospect of another fall, below 106.17 would bring weakness to 105.66/71.
On the upside, above 106.69 would risk re-test of 106.97, where break would extend aforesaid rise to 107.09, then 107.47/57.
T.G.I. F. for Asian traders, ahead of Powell’s speech, we have several Fed officials speaking at various times (see our EI section for details) n the only U.S. data due out at the same time when Powell begins to speak is new home sales for Jul.
AceTraderFx Aug 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 105.78
Despite dollar’s intra-day gap-down open and then break of January’s 104.79 low to a 33-month bottom at 104.46 in New Zealand on escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, price rallied to 105.79 in Asian morning, then 105.95 in European morning following U.S. President Trump’s comments suggests temporary low is made and stronger retracement to 106.26 may be seen.
On the downside, only below 105.17/20 would indicate recovery has ended instead, yield 104.79, then possibly 104.46 again.
Data to be released later:
Germany Ifo business climate, current conditions, expectations, U.S. durable goods, Chicago national activity and Dallas Fed manufacturing index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 105.66
Yesterday’s rally from a 33-month trough at 104.46 to 106.41 (New York) suggests medium term decline has made a temporary bottom there, subsequent retreat signals first leg of correction has ended and mild downside bias would be seen before prospect of another rise later.
Only above 106.41 would extend said upmove to 106.73/78 but 106.97 should remain intact and yield retreat.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Germany GDP, France business climate, consumer confidence, UK BBA mortgage approvals, U.S. redbook, monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.09
Despite dollar’s initial fall to a 33-month trough at 104.46 on Monday, subsequent rise to 106.41 suggests medium term decline has made a temporary low and Tuesday’s retreat to 105.60 signals first leg of correction has ended and range trading would be seen before prospect of another upmove.
Only below 105.60 would risk weakness to 105.41/44, break may extend towards 105.21.
Data to be released later:
Swiss non-farm payrolls, France consumer spending, GDP, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, PPI, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
Canada current account, average weekly earnings, and U.S. GDP, PCE, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, trade balance, pending home sales.
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AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.52
Although dollar’s break of Moday’s 106.41 high to 106.67 on Thursday due to easing U.S.-China trade tension suggests recent upmove from Monday’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has once again resumed, subsequent retreat would bring range trading before price heads to 107.00/09.
On the downside, only below 106.20/22 would indicate temporary top is in place and yield retracement to 105.60/65.
T.G.I.F. after a tumultuous week, however, European n N. American traders must pay attention to release of key U.S. data later today starting with Fed’s preferred inflation guage core PCE price index, PCE index, personal income n personal spending at 12:30GMT, then Chicago PMI and then University of Michigan consumer confidence. Therefore, one can expect a lot of volatility in New York morning trading, good luck.
AceTraderFx Sept 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Sept 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.26
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from last Monday’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 106.67 on Thur, subsequent retreat to 106.11 Fri, then lower to 105.93 today suggests first leg of correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 105.60/66 but 105.44 should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 106.67 would risk gain towards 106.97 before prospect of retreat.
Data to be released later:
Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada market holiday and U.S. market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Sept 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.06
Despite dollar’s rally from last Mon’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 106.67 on Thursday, subsequent fall to 105.93 on Monday suggests first leg of correction has ended and intra-day fall from 106.38 (Asia) has retained bearishness for weakness towards 105.60 but 105.44 should hold.
On the upside, only above 106.40/45 would yield 106.67/73, break, 106.97 later.
U.S. financial markets will return after yesterday’s Labor Day holiday and will release a slew of eco. data starting with Markit mfg PMI, construction spending and ISM-mfg PMI.
We have Boston Fed President Rosengren (2019 FOMC voter, a centrist) speaking on the economy at an event hosted by a business school at 21:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 2019 06:00 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.24
Dollar’s resumption of decline from last Thursday’s 106.67 high to 105.75 yesterday suggests first leg of correction from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has ended and intra-day rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall, however, 105.30 sup should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 106.40/42 would extend gain towards 106.67/73.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, good trade balance, redbook, ISM New York index and Canada trade balance, exports, imports, labour productivity rate, BoC interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Sept 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.50
Dollar’s intra-day rally in Asia and then break of last Thursday’s 106.67 high to 106.75 suggests recent upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has once again resumed, subsequent pullback on retreat in U.S. yields would bring range trading before price head towards 107.09 but 107.49 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 106.07/10 would indicate temporary top is made and yield 105.75.
Ahead of release of Fri’s key U.S. jobs report, pay attention today on U.S. ADP private payrolls, initial weekly jobless claims, labor costs, non-farm productivity, Markit services PMI, durable goods and ISM non-mfg PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Sept 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.94
Despite dollar’s fall from last Thursday’s 5-week peak at 107.22 to 106.63 in post-NFP trading on Friday, subsequent rebound to 107.01 in Asia today suggests the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 107.49/50 later, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 107.82.
On the downside, only below 106.63 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement to 106.38, then 106.22 before prospect of a recovery.
After Friday’s blockbuster U.S. NFP, no eco. data is due out today, therefore, traders may take cue on intra-day move in U.S. yields especially the benchmark 1-year which had rebounded from Sepember’s 3-year low of 1.429% (Tuesday) to as high as 1.608% on Friday (circa 1.5687%).
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Sept 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.28
Although dollar has retreated after intra-day break above last Thursday’s 5-week peak at 107.22 to 107.49 in Asia on rising U.S. Treasury yields and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed, upside bias is retained for another rise to 107.82 before prospect of a correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 107.06 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 106.95/96 later.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
France non-farm payrolls, industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings.
Canada housing starts, building permits and U.S. redbook, JOLTS job opening.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.76
Dollar’s resumption of upmove from August’s 33-month low at 104.46 to a fresh 5-week high at 107.84 today signals price would head to 108.42 after consolidation before prospect of correction due to loss of upward momentum.
On the downside, only below 107.20/22 would yield weakness towards 106.93.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan business survey index, U.S. MBA mortgage application, PPI final, PPI core, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and Canada capital utilization.
AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Sept 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.87
Dollar’s resumption of upmove from August’s 33-month low at 104.46 to a fresh 5-week high at 108.16 in Asia today on easing U.S.-China trade tension suggests price would head to 108.42 after consolidation before prospect of correction due to loss of upward momentum.
On the downside, only below 107.19/20 signals temporary top made and yield weakness towards 106.93.
Pay attention to release of a slew of U.S. eco. data later today, market will pay attention to prelim. August CPI, core CPI, real weekly earnings, weekly jobless claims and later, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Sept 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Sept 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.88
Dollar’s rebound to 107.93 after opening lower to 107.48 in New Zealand on weekend Saudi attack suggests pullback from last Friday’s high at 108.26 has ended there and re-test of said resistance is seen, break would extend upmove from August’s 33-month low at 104.46 to 108.40/50.
On the downside, only below 107.48 signals a temporary top is made and risks fall to 107.19 but 106.93 may hold.
U.S. economic calendar is pretty thin with NY Fed manufacturing index being the only data due out at 12:30 GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.16
Dollar’s intra-day break of last Friday’s top at 108.26 to a 6-week high of 108.36 (Asia) suggests recent upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed and would head to 108.74 after consolidation before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 107.69 signals temporary top is made and yield stronger retracement to 107.48/53.
The Fed will start its 2-day FOMC meeting today and on the data front, we have Redbook sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, and NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sept 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.18
Dollar’s retreat after yesterday’s gain to a 6-week high at 108.36 suggests recent upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top and range trading would be seen before said rise extends to 109.03 but 109.31 would hold and yield correction.
On the downside, only below 107.92 would risk stronger retracement towards 107.69, then 107.48.
FOMC and subsequent J. Powell’s press conference are the biggest events for the month. Market is pricing in for a 25 basis point rate cut but some are even expecting Fed to restart QE programme, if this does occur, then the greenback would be bashed down hard.
Until then, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, building permits n housing starts.
AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.04
Despite dollar’s rise to a fresh 6-week high at 108.47 in post FOMC New York, intra-day selloff to 107.80 (Asia) suggests temporary top is in place and subsequent rebound would yield consolidation before price head towards 107.69, however, 107.48 would hold and bring correction.
On the upside, only above 108.47 would risk gain to 108.74 before prospect of retreat due to loss of momentum.
Data to be released later:
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, Germany wholesale price index, EU current account, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, BOE MPC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut, BOE interest rate decision, BOE QE total, BOE QE corp bond purchases.
And U.S. current account, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey, existing home sales, leading index.
AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.88
Despite dollar’s rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 108.47 Wednesday, subsequent retreat to 107.78 (Europe) today suggests upmove from August’s 33-month through at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and downside bias remains for weakness to 107.48 after consolidation but 107.19 would hold.
On the upside, only above 108.13 would indicate pullback has ended and yield re-test of 108.47, break would extend towards 108.74.
T.G.I.F., although no U.S. eco. data is due out today, pay attention to a number of scheduled speeches by Fed officials (please refer to our EI section for details) later today which may move the market.