AceTraderFx Jul 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.73
Dollar’s fall from Tuesday’s 108.37 high and intra-day break of last Fri’s low at 107.81 to 107.62 at European open suggests recent decline from July’s 1-month peak at 108.99 to retrace early rise from June’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 would head towards 107.06 after conoslidation.
On the upside, only above 108.11 would risk re-test of 108.37, break, 108.60/63 later.
Data to be released later:
Swiss imports, exports, trade balance, UK retail sales, core retail sales.
U.S. jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, leading indicator.
AceTraderFx Jul 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.68
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent to a 3-week low at 107.22 in NY on Thu due to Fed Williams’ dovish comments, intra-day jump on New York Fed statement suggests temporary low has possibly been made and above 107.81 would yield stronger retracement towards 108.15, then 108.37 later.
On the downside, only below 107.22 would risk weakness towards 107.06 but 106.79 (June’s low) should remain intact.
The only economic data coming out from the U.S. is University of Michigan consumer confidence, however, so pay attention to speeches by St. Louis Fed’s President Bullard at 15:05GMT, then Boston Fed President’s Rosengren at 20:30GMT, he will also be joined by BOJ Gov. Kuroda.
AceTraderFx Jul 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.85
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from July’s 108.99 high to a 3-week trough at 107.22 on Friday due to dovish comments from Fed Williams, subsequent rally to 108.06 in Asia today suggests temporary low is in place and consolidation upside bias remains for gain towards 108.32/37.
On the downside, only below 107.60 would risk weakness towards 107.35/40, then re-test of 107.22.
Data to be released later today:
U.S. Chicago national activity index, and Canada wholesale sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jul 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.13
Although dollar’s rise from last Thursday’s 3-week trough at 107.22 to 108.19 today suggests recent decline from July’s 5-week peak at 108.99 has made a temporary low and consolidation with upside bias remains, overbought condition should cap price below said res and yield retreat.
On the downside, below 107.71/78 would yield weakness towards 107.54, then possibly re-test of 107.22 later.
Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is very thin on Tuesday with EU’s consumer confidence for July being the only data due out later in the day at 14:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jul 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.06
Although dollar’s intra-day retreat due to falling U.S. yields suggests recent upmove from last Thursday’s 3-week trough at 107.22 has made a temporary top at 108.28 Tuesday and stronger retracement towards 108.71/78 would be seen before prospect of another rise.
Only below 107.54 would risk weakness towards 107.22/25 while above 108.37 would extend gain to 108.60.
On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, Markit mfg and services PMI and then new home sales.
AceTraderFx Jul 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.07
Dollar’s rally from last Thursday’s 3-week low at 107.22 to 108.29 on Tue suggests decline from July’s 1-month peak at 108.99 has made a temporary low and as price has rebounded after yesterday’s pullback to 107.94 (New York), upside bias is retained for gain to 108.75 but 108.99 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 107.71/78 may risk weakness towards 107.50/54.
U.S. will later release weekly jobless claims, durable goods order, wholesale inventories and finally Kansas City manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Jul 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.66
Dollar’s rally above Tuesday’s 108.29 high (now sup) to 108.75 in New York yesterday on rising U.S. yields suggests re-test of July’s 1-month top at 108.99 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from June’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 towards 109.59 later.
On the downside, only a daily close below 108.29 would risk weakness towards 107.94, then 107.78.
Data to be released on Friday :
France consumer confidence, producer prices, Italy MFG business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. GDP, PCE, and Canada budget balance.
AceTraderFx Jul 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.65
Dollar’s resumption of recent upmove from July’s 3-week trough at 107.22 to 108.83 in New York on Friday suggests early correction from July’s 1-month high at 108.99 has ended, and as price has rebounded after initial retreat to 108.43 in Asia today, upside bias remains, above 108.99 would extend rise from 106.79 (June’s low) to 109.20/30 but 109.59 should hold.
On the downside, only below 108.29 would indicate temporary top made, risk weakness towards 107.94/98.
Data to be out later:
UK nationwide house price, Italy PPI, and U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jul 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.64
Although dollar’s resumption of upmove from July’s 3-week trough at 107.22 to 108.94 at Asian open suggests early correction from 108.99 (July’s high) has ended, intra-day retreat following BOJ’s unchanged rate decision signals choppy trading below said resistant would continue and only below 108.43 would head to 108.29, but 108.05 should remain intact.
On the upside, above 108.99 would extend rise from Jun’s trough at 106.79 towards 109.32 before correction.
Data out on Tuesday :
New Zealand building permits, Australia building permits, Japan unemployment rate, industrial output, BOJ interest rate decision.
France GDP, budget balance, consumer spending, Germany GfK consumer sentiment, CPI, HICP, Swiss KOF indicator, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, Core PCE price index, redbook, CS home price, consumer confidence, pending home sales.
AceTraderFx Aug 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 July 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.13
Dollar’s re-test of previous July’s 108.99 high on Thursday after hawkish comments from Fed’s Powell and then intra-day rise to an 8-week high at 109.31 (Asia) suggests recent upmove from June’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 has once again resumed and further headway towards 109.59, then 109.93 would be seen after consolidation.
On the downside, only below 108.72 (AUS) would risk stronger retracement towards 108.43.
Later today, U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, Markit mfg PMI, construction spending and ISM mfg PMI.
AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.93
Dollar’s selloff from yesterday’s 8-week high to 107.27 in New York on U.S. President Trump’s tweet on more tariffs on China, then to 106.84 today suggests early correction from June’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 has ended and re-test of this level would be seen after consolidation, where break would extend medium term decline towards 106.20/30.
On the upside, only above 107.56/57 would risk stronger retracement towards 107.95/00.
Data to be released on Friday :
Swiss CPI manufacturing PMI, Italy industrial output, retail sales, UK Markit construction PMI, EU PPI, retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, goods trade balance, ISM New York index, factory orders, durables ex-defense, durable goods, durables ex-transport, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada trade balance, export, import.
AceTraderFx Aug 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 105.95
Intra-day fall below Fri’s 106.52 to a fresh 7-month bottom at 105.79 in Asia on active safe-haven yen buying due to escalating U.S.-China trade tension suggests Medium Term decline remains in progress and further weakness to 105.55 would be seen after consolidation but loss of momentum should keep price above 105.22.
On the upside, only above 106.52 would risk stronger retracement towards 106.85, then 107.27 before down.
U.S. economic calendar is very light today with Markit services PMI and ISM non-mfg PMI being only only data due out.
Also, we have Fed Governor Brainard who will speak on ‘Payment Systems’ in Kansas City at 17:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.36
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent decline to a fresh 7-month bottom of 105.53 in Australia, subsequent rise to 107.09 in Asia on higher official USD/CNH mid-point reference rate suggests temporary low made and present retreat would bring range trading before prospect of another rise but 107.22/27 should remain intact and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 105.80 would risk re-test of 105.53, break, 105.20/25 later.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Germany industrial order, France non-farm payrolls, industrial output.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Aug 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 105.94
Dollar’s intra-day rebound from 105.73 (AUS) suggests 1st leg of correction from Wednesday’s 7-month trough at 105.50 has ended at 106.30 yesterday and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 106.30 would extend gain towards 106.70/74 later.
On the downside, only below 105.73 would risk re-test of 105.50, break, 105.10/20.
Data to be released on Friday:
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France industrial output, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, CPI, CPI EU, U.K. NIESR GDP estimate, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, good trade balance, good trade balance non-EU.
Canada housing starts, building permits, employment change, unemployment rate, and U.S. PPI, core PPI.
AceTraderFx Aug 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 105.29
Dollar’s intra-day break of Friday’s 7-month bottom at 105.27 suggests medium term decline remains in progress and would head towards 105.00 after consolidation but loss of downward momentum should keep price above 2019 trough of 104.79 (January).
On the upside, only above 106.30/32 would confirm temporary low made and risk retracement towards 106.70/74.
On the economic calendar, no data is due out from the U.S. today, we have U.S. Federal budget due out at 18:00GMT, therefore, funds flow will have a greater impact on intra-day price swings.
AceTraderFx Aug 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 105.24
Although dollar’s rebound from Mon’s fresh 7-month bottom at 105.06 to 105.58 today suggests temporary low is possibly made and range trading would be seen before prospect of one more fall, loss of momentum should prevent steep fall below 2019 trough at 104.79 (Jan) and yield correction.
On the upside, above 105.58 would bring stronger retracement towards 105.69 but 105.85/90 should hold.
On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of eco. indicators starting with Jul core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnongs n Redbook sales.
AceTraderFx Aug 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.45
Dollar’s impressive rally from 105.07 to 106.97 on Tue due to positive news of U.S.-China trade talks suggests recent decline has made a temporary low at Mon’s fresh 7-month bottom of 105.06, subsequent retreat would bring range trading before prospect of another rise towards 107.10/15.
On the downside, only below 106.00/10 would indicate recovery has ended instead, risk retracement towards 105.57/67.
U.S. will later release a slew of economic data starting with MBA mortgage applicaions, then import and export prices. As these 3rd tier data are unlikely to have impact on price, traders will take cue from intra-day movements in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields.
AceTraderFx Aug 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.20
Despite dollar’s brief jump to 106.78 at European open, subsequent retreat suggests further choppy trading inside recent broad range 105.06-106.97 would continue with downside bias and below 105.66 would yield 105.30/40, where break would bring re-test of Monday’s fresh 7-month bottom of 105.06.
On the upside, only above 106.78 would risk stronger retracement towards 106.97, then possibly 107.09.
Data to be released later:
Italy market holiday, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, retail sales import price.
US New York Fed manufacturing, initial jobless claims, labor costs prelim, productivity prelim, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales.industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, industrial production and Canada ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.55
Although dollar’s fall from Tuesday’s 106.97 high to 105.66 (Wed) suggests correction from Monday’s fresh 7-month trough at 105.06 has possibly ended, subsequent strong bounce to 106.78 then retreat to 105.71 on Thursday would bring volatile swings before prospect of another decline.
Only above 106.97 would risk further gain towards 107.09, then possibly 107.57
Data to be released later today:
EU current account, HICP final, core HICP on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 106.46
Although dollar’s retreat from last Tuesday’s 106.97 high to 105.66 Wed suggests correction from last Monday’s fresh 7-month trough at 105.06 has ended, subsequent daily wild swings would bring range trading before prospect of another fall to 105.66/71.
On the upside, only above 106.78 would risk re-test of 106.97, break would extend gain towards 107.09, then 107.27.
U.S. will later release Philly Fed non-manufacturing business outlook survey at 12:30GMT, then Redbook sales at 12:55GMT. Intra-day traders are expected to ignore these 2nd-tier data and will take cue from intra-day move in U.S. yields n stocks.