AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Dec 201909:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.38
Despite dollar’s rebound from 109.19 last Thursday to 109.53 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading below Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72 would continue, however, reckon said support would hold and yield prospect of another rise, above 109.70/72 would extend upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93, then 110.00/10 before correction.
On the downside, only below 108.94 would risk stronger retracement to 108.44/46.
AceTraderFx Dec 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Dec 201909:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.49
Although dollar’s rally from last Thursday’s trough at 109.19 to 109.68 yesterday suggests early correction from 109.70 has ended, intra-day retreat would bring range trading before price heads toward Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72, above would extend upmove from Aug’s 33-month’s 104.46 low to 110.00/10 but 110.20 may hold today.
On the downside, only below 109.19 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 108.94, then 108.44.
AceTraderFx Dec 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.14
Despite dollar’s rebound to 109.68 last Thursday, subsequent retreat and intra-day break of previous support at 109.19 suggests further choppy trading below Dec’s 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue and would head towards 108.94, then possibly 108.44/46 before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, only above 109.39/44 signals pullback has ended and risks gain to 109.58, then re-test of 109.72.
Pay attention to the release of Chicago PMI at 14:45GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 47.9 from previous reading of 46.3.
AceTraderFx Dec 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Dec 201909:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.68
Although dollar’s selloff and break of previous support at 109.19 to 108.76 in New York yesterday, then lower today suggests further choppy trading below Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72 would continue and weakness to 108.44/46 would be seen after consolidation, break needed to extend decline to 108.25/29.
On the upside, only above 109.07 signals pullback over and risks gain towards 109.22 then 109.39/44.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, pay attention to U.S. consumer confidence at 15:00GMT. Street forecast is for an uptick to 128.2 from previous reading of 125.5.
AceTraderFx Jan 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.80
Despite dollar’s selloff from last Thursday’s 109.68 high to 108.48 on Tuesday, subsequent rebound suggests choppy trading above Dec’s 108.44 low would be seen before prospect of another fall, below said support would extend decline from Dec’s 6-month peak at 109.72 to 108.25/29, then 107.90 (Nov’s bottom).
On the upside, only above 108.94/99 would risk stronger retracement to 109.19/22.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 225K from previous reading of 222K.
AceTraderFx Jan 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jan 202003:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.94
Dollar’s break of December’s trough at 108.44 to 108.22 yesterday, then lower today on active safe-haven jpy buying after U.S. missile attack on Iraq suggests decline from December’s 6-month high at 109.72 has resumed and re-test of November’s 107.90 low would be seen after consolidation, break would extend towards 107.71, then 107.40/50 before prospect of correction.
On the upside, only above 108.44/48 would risk stronger retracement to 108.62, then possibly 108.86.
Pay attention to the US ISM manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 49.0 from previous reading of 48.1. Investors should also keep an eye out on the release of FOMC minutes at 19:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.12
Although price has recovered after intra-day fall to a 2-1/2 month trough at 107.78 on cross-buying in jpy and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals decline from December’s 6-month peak at 109.72 has resumed, downside bias remains and below 107.78 would extend to 107.46. However, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.09/10 and yield correction later.
On the upside, only above 108.62 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.86/90 before prospect of retreat.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light wuth Markit services PMI for Dec being the only data due out. Anyway, market focus remains on full alert on latest developments in the Middle East.
AceTraderFx Jan 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.37
Although dollar has recovered after yesterday’s fall to a 2-1/2 month trough at 107.78 on cross-buying in jpy and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals decline from December’s 6-month peak at 109.72 has resumed, downside bias remains and below 107.78 would extend to 107.46. However, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.09/10 and yield correction later.
On the upside, only above 108.62 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.86/90 before prospect of retreat.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data (see our EI page for details), the majority of them are revision for Nov, however, do pay attention to ISM mfg PMI for Dec due out at 15:00GMT as this may have impact to price if actual number deviates sharply fm street forecast of 54.5 vs prev. reading of 53.9. Also, Fed Boad Gov. Brainard will be speaking at 15:00GMT in Washington but topic is not related to monetary policy.
AceTraderFx Jan 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.43
Despite the greenback’s selloff to a 12-week trough at 107.66 on escalating US-Iran conflict after Iran fired missiles on U.S. airbase in Iraq, subsequent strong rebound suggests decline from December’s 6-month peak at 109.72 has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with mild upside bias would be seen, however, resistance at 108.62 should remain intact and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only below 107.66 would revive bearishness for weakness to 107.20/30 but loss of momentum would keep price above 106.97, bring correction.
As intra-day jump from 107.66 signals temporary low has been made, expect choppy sideways swings in European morning and pay attention to official response from the U.S. esp. statement by Trump in New York morning later today.
AceTraderFx Jan 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.34
Despite the greenback’s selloff to a 12-week trough at 107.66 in Asia, subsequent rally to 109.24 in New York after President Trump’s statement on Iran suggests decline from December’s 6-month peak at 109.72 has made a temporary low there and upside bias remains for gain to 109.55/58, however, aforesaid top would hold on first testing and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 108.81 (previous resistance) would indicate said recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness to 108.62.
The only data due out fm the U.S. is weekly jobless claims, so market awaits earnestly for Fri’s key jobs report. However, do pay attention to speeches n interview of a number of Fed official during U.S. session which may have a short-term impact on price movement (see our EI section for full details).
AceTraderFx Jan 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.65
Dollar’s intra-day rebound after retreat from Fri’s 109.69 high to 109.44 in New York suggests correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of Dec’s 6-month peak of 109.72, break would extend upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 110.10/15 but 110.32/37 should hold due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 109.24 signals temporary top is in place and risks weakness to 109.01/05, then 108.62.
Although there will be no economic data from U.S. today, we have a number of Fed officials speaking in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.98
Dollar’s resumption of upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to a 7-1/2 month’s 110.20 high at Asian open today on continued U.S.-China trade optimism suggests price would head towards 110.67 after consolidation before prospect of correction due to ‘loss of upward momentum’.
On the downside, only below 109.69/72 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 109.44, break, 109.24.
On the data front, pay attention to release of U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings and redbook at 13:55 GMT, then Federal budget at 19:00 GMT later. Also, we have New York Fed’s President John Williams due to speak at 14:10 GMT, followed by Kansas City Fed’s President Esther George at 18:00 GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.91
Dollar’s rally above Dec’s 109.72 high to 109.94 on Monday, then to a 7-1/2 month peak at 110.20 at Asian open yesterday suggests medium upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed and subsequent retreat would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above 110.20 would extend to 110.50/60.
On the downside, only below 109.72 signals temporary top is in place and risks weakness to 109.44, break, 109.24.
On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications at 12:00 GMT, followed by NY Fed manufacturing index, PPI, core PPI at 13:30 GMT. We also have two Fed officials due to speak later in New York session, please refer to our EI page for more details. Also, the United States and China phase one trade deal signing ceremony will take place at 16:30 GMT at the White House.
AceTraderFx Jan 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.96
Despite dollar’s retreat from Tuesday’s 7-1/2 month 110.20 peak to 109.79 in New York yesterday, subsequent rebound to 110.00 (Reuters) suggests correction has possibly ended and re-test of said resistance would be seen after consolidation, break would extend medium term upmove from 2019 trough at 104.46 (Aug) to 110.67 but 111.00/05 should cap upside.
On the downside, only below 109.72 signals temporary top made and risks stronger retracement towards 109.40/44.
On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of data in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details, however, market focus is on retail sales for December. Also, we have Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman scheduled to speak at 15:00 GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.21
Dollar’s break above Tue’s 110.20 high to a fresh 7-1/2 month peak of 110.28 in Asia today confirms medium term upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has once again resumed and would head towards 110.67 after consolidation, however, reckon 111.00/05 would remain intact and yield correction.
On the downside, below 109.72/79 signals temporary top made and risks stronger retracement to 109.44/50.
Data to be released later:
Swiss producer/import price, France budget balance, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU current account, construction output, HICP, HICP core, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel.
U.S. building permit, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, JOLTS job openings, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jan 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.12
Dollar’s retreat to 110.05 in New Zealand today suggests medium upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top at Friday’s fresh 7-1/2 month 110.28 peak and range trading would be seen before said rise resumes and head towards 110.67 but 111.05 should cap upside due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 109.94 would risk weakness to 109.79 would risk stronger retarcement to 109.44/48.
U.S. markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, hence no data will be out.
AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan 2020 0_9:30GMT_
USD/JPY - 109.94
Dollar’s retreat to 109.90 in Asia today after resumption of medium term upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to a fresh 7-1/2 month’s 110.28 peak last Friday signals temporary top made and consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen, however, reckon 109.44 would remain intact.
Above 110.28 would extend said rise towards 110.67 before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.
Data to be released later:
France business climate, UK ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, claimant count, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
Canada manufacturing sales, U.S. redbook, and New Zealand GDT price index.
AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.98
Despite the greenback’s selloff from last Friday’s 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 to 109.77 yesterday, intra-day rebound suggests the aforesaid pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.21, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of 110.28 later, break would extend upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 110.50/60 later this week before prospect of a correction.
On the downside, only below 109.77 would revive bearishness for a stronger retracement of above mentioned uptrend to 109.44/50.
On the U.S. eco. calendar, we have MBA mortgage applications and Chicago national activity index, monthly house price and existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jan 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.58
Despite dollar’s resumption of medium term upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to a fresh 7-1/2 month peak at 110.28 last Friday, subsequent fall to 109.77 on Tuesday, then 109.51 in Asia today on active safe-haven yen buying suggests temporary top is in place and price would head to 109.44, then 109.00/10 after consolidation.
On the upside, only above 109.77 signals correction ended and risks gain to 110.09/11, then 110.28.
Data to be released later:
EU ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision, consumer confidence.
U.S. initial jobless claims, leading index, KC Fed manufacturing index.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major