AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

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809

AceTraderFx Jan 27 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 103.72
Despite the greenback’s break below previous support at 103.53 to 103.33 last Thursday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound on risk-averse buying in usd to 103.93 Monday suggests decline from last Monday’s 4-week peak at 104.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement to 104.08/10.

On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac leading index, NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, CPI, Japan coincident index, leading economic index.
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, Fed interest rate decision.

810

AceTraderFx Jan 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.33
Despite the greenback’s break below previous support at 103.53 to 103.33 last Thursday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent rally to 103.93 Monday on risk-averse buying in usd to 103.93 Monday and yesterday’s break above this level to 104.36 today confirms decline from last Monday’s 4-week peak at 104.39 has ended and re-test of said resistance would be seen.

On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan retail sales, Australia export prices, import prices.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP.
U.S. building permits, GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE price index, PCE price index, trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, leading index, new home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index.
Canada building permits, average weekly earnings.

811

AceTraderFx Jan 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jan 2021 09:30GMT

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo core CPI, Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output, consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, Australia PPI.
France consumer spending, GDP, producer prices, Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, GDP, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy producer prices.
Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance and U.S. employment wages, employment costs, personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, pending home sales.

812

AceTraderFx Feb 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.87
The greenback’s rise to a near 2-1/2 month peak at 104.94 last Friday on active risk-averse buying of usd due to fall in U.S. stock futures suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has once again resumed and further gain to 105.13 would be seen, however, 105.47 should limit upside due to loss of upward momentum and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 103.93 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.56 later this week.

Data to be released today :
Australia AIG manufacturing index, ANZ job advertisements, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, France budget Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. labor costs, productivity, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.

813

AceTraderFx Feb 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.92
The greenback’s rise to a near 2-1/2 month peak at 105.03 yesterday on active risk-averse buying of usd due to fall in U.S. stock futures suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has once again resumed and further gain to 105.47 would be seen, however, 105.67 should limit upside due to loss of upward momentum and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 104.62 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.93 later this week.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today as well 3 Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York afternoon (please see EI section for details).

814

AceTraderFx Feb 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.04
The greenback’s rise to an 11-week peak at 105.17 yesterday on usd’s continued strength suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 would head to resistance at 105.47 after consolidation, however, daily resistance at 105.67 would limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 104.62 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.18/20.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pay attention to ADP private payrolls n services PMI.
Again, a number of Fed officials are scheduled to speak later today, please refer to our EI page for details.

815

AceTraderFx Feb 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.17
The greenback’s rise to an 11-week peak at 105.17 on Tuesday and intra-day break above this level on usd’s continued strength suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 would head to resistance at 105.47 after consolidation, however, daily resistance at 105.67 would limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 104.62 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.18/20.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand building permits, Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
Swiss consumer confidence, UK Markit construction PMI, BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase programme, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, EU retail sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation,.

816

AceTraderFx Feb 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.42
The greenback’s rise to a fresh 11-week peak at 105.64 at Asian open today on usd’s continued strength suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 would head to resistance at 106.10 after consolidation, however, daily resistance at 106.55 would limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 104.62 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.18/20.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia AIG services index, retail sales, Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading economic index.
Germany industrial orders, France current account, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price, Italy retail sales, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, trade balance, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI.

817

AceTraderFx Feb 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.59
The greenback’s rise to a fresh 11-week peak at 105.76 at New York open on Friday due to usd’s continued strength suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 would head to resistance at 106.10 after consolidation, however, daily resistance at 106.55 would limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 104.62 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.18/20.

Data to be released today :
New Zealand market holiday, Japan current account, trade balance, Economy Watchers outlook, Economy Watchers current.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, EU Sentix index.
Canada leading index on Monday.

818

AceTraderFx Feb 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.77
The greenback’s rise to a fresh 11-week peak at 105.76 at New York open on Friday due to usd’s continued strength suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 would head to resistance at 106.10 after consolidation, however, daily resistance at 106.55 would limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 104.62 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.18/20.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand inflation forecast.
UK BRC retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Italy industrial output.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.

819

AceTraderFx Feb 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.57

Despite the greenback’s rally to a 16-week peak at 105.76 last Friday, subsequent selloff to 104.51 yesterday due to return or risk sentiment on rally in global equities suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 104.10, however, oversold condition would keep price above 103.80/90 and yield a rebound later.

On the upside, only above 105.16 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended and risk gain to 105.34, then 105.45/50 later this week.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI page for details. Also pay attention to Fed President J. Powell speech at 17:00GMT at Economic Club of New York where he will speak on “State of the U.S. labor Market” and may shed more light on future Fed’s monetary policy.

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U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI page for details. Also pay attention to Fed President J. Powell speech at 17:00GMT at Economic Club of New York where he will speak on “State of the U.S. labor Market” and may shed more light on future Fed’s monetary policy.

820

AceTraderFx Feb 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.64
Despite the greenback’s rally to a 16-week peak at 105.76 last Friday, subsequent selloff to 104.42 yesterday due to return or risk sentiment on rally in global equities suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 104.10, however, oversold condition would keep price above 103.80/90 and yield a rebound later.

On the upside, only above 105.16 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended and risk gain to 105.34, then 105.45/50 later this week.

On the data front, U.S. will release weekly jobless claims n continued jobless claims at 13:30GMT.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI page for details. Also pay attention to Fed President J. Powell speech at 17:00GMT at Economic Club of New York where he will speak on “State of the U.S. labor Market” and may shed more light on future Fed’s monetary policy.

821

AceTraderFx Feb 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.36
Despite the greenback’s selloff from February’s 16-week peak at 105.76 to as low as 104.42 last Wednesday on usd’s continued weakness due to rise in US stocks, subsequent strong rebound to 105.63 today suggests the pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid resistance, break would extend to 105.90/00.

On the downside, only below 104.42 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 to 104.18.

U.S. markets will re-open after Monday’s holiday, the only eco. data due out is New York Fed mfg index at 13:30GMT.
We have a number of fed officials scheduled to speak later today, please refer to our EI page for details.

822

AceTraderFx Feb 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.94
The greenback’s rise above February’s 16-week peak 105.76 to 106.22 ahead of Asian open today on usd’s continued strength suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has once again resumed and further gain to 106.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, over bought condition would keep price below 106.60/70 and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 105.41 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 105.19, then 104.80/84.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac leading index, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, China market holiday
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, DCLG house price index, EU construction output.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, PPI, core PPI, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, and Canada CPI, core CPI.

823

AceTraderFx Feb 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.79
The greenback’s rise above February’s 16-week peak 105.76 to 106.22 ahead of Asian open yesterday on usd’s continued strength suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has once again resumed and further gain to 106.40/50 would be seen after consolidation.
However, overbought condition would keep price below 106.60/70 and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 105.41 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 105.19, then 104.80/84.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index, and EU consumer confidence.

824

AceTraderFx Feb 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.62
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month low at 102.60 to a 5-month high of 106.22 on Wednesday, subsequent retreat in tandem with U.S. Treasury yields suggests temporary top is made and choppy sideways swings would be seen, however, reckon 105.41 would contain downside and yield another rise to 106.50/55.

On the downside, only below 105.41 risks weakness to 105.18/19 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand PPI inputs, PPI outputs, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, retail sales, Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
UK GfK consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss industrial production, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales.

825

AceTraderFx Feb 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.76
Although dollar’s fall from last Wednesday’s 5-month high at 106.22 to 105.25 Friday suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month trough of 102.60 has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound to 105.66, then intra-day break there on rise in U.S. yields signals pullback has possibly ended, above 105.92 would confirm and bring re-test of 106.22

On the downside, only below 105.25 risks weakness to 104.84/88, however, reckon 104.42 should remain intact.

Data to be released later:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. national activity index, leading index change, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

826

AceTraderFx Feb 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.14
Although dollar’s fall from last Wednesday’s 5-month high at 106.22 to 104.99 yesterday, then 104.93 today suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month trough of 102.60 has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound signals pullback has possibly ended, above 105.92 would confirm and bring re-test of 106.22

On the downside, only below 105.93 risks weakness to 104.84/88, however, reckon 104.42 should remain intact.

U.S. will later release a slew of U.S. eco. data (please refer to EI page for details).
Last but not the least, Fed Chairman J. Powell will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Report to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00GMT.

827

AceTraderFx Feb 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.58
Although dollar’s fall from last Wednesday’s 5-month high at 106.22 to 104.99 yesterday, then 104.93 today suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month trough of 102.60 has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound signals pullback has possibly ended, above 105.92 would confirm and bring re-test of 106.22

On the downside, only below 105.93 risks weakness to 104.84/88, however, reckon 104.42 should remain intact.

On the data front, the only data due out is U.S. new home sales. Pay attention to comments by Fed Chair J. Powell when he tesitifies in the second day of his 2-day appearance b4 the Senate.
As market has already reacted to his dovish comments yesterday, beware of usd’s buying on short covering in other G7 currencies later today. We also have a no. of Fed officials scheduled to speak (please refer to our EI page for details) but Powell will take centre stage.

828

AceTraderFx Feb 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Feb 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.12
Despite the greenback’s selloff from February’s 5-month peak at 106.22 to 104.93 on Tuesday on usd’s continued weakness, subsequent strong rebound to 106.10 yesterday and intra-day break above there on active cross-selling in jpy suggests the correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid resistance, break would extend upmove from January’s bottom at 102.60 to 106.55/60 later.

On the downside, only below 105.42 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 105.07/10 later.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to key GDP as well as weekly jobless claims. We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in NY session.