AceTraderFx Dec 30 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.33
Despite the greenback’s 1-tick break above last Monday’s high at 103.88 to 103.89 Monday, subsequent retreat suggests correction from December’s 9-month bottom at 102.88 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness to 103.26, below would confirm this view and yield re-test of aforesaid low later this week.
On the upside, only above 103.89 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement of Medium Term decline to 104.10/14.
U.S. will later release a slew of economic data in NY morning, pls refer to our Economic Indicator page for details.
AceTraderFx Dec 31 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 31 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.13
Despite the greenback’s 1-tick break above last Monday’s high at 103.88 to 103.89 Monday, subsequent retreat to 102.97 yesterday on usd’s broad-based weakness suggests correction from December’s 9-month bottom at 102.88 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for a re-test of said support, break would extend Medium Term4 decline to 102.50/60 before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, only above 103.89 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement of MT decline to 104.10/14.
On the last trading day of this pandemic 2020 year, U.S. will later release the usual weekly jobless claims, continued jobless claims which may move price a bit if actual readings deviate greatly from street forecast, however, market’s mentality is to sell dlr on rebound.
AceTraderFx Jan 04 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 102.88
The greenback’s intra-day break below December’s 9-month trough at 102.88 signals MT decline has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 102.50/60, however, support at 102.17/20 should remain intact due to oversold condition and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 103.31/35 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.50/60.
U.S. will release its final reading of December’s manufacturing PMI at 14:45GMT. Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak on the economic impacts of Covid-19 before the ASSA virtual annual meeting at 15:00GMT whereas Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will talk about economic prospects and policies after Covid-19 at the same event.
AceTraderFx Jan 05 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 102.94
The greenback’s break below December’s 9-month trough at 102.88 to 102.72 yesterday signals MT decline has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 102.50/60, however, support at 102.17/20 should remain intact due to over sold condition and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 103.31/35 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.50/60.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia ANZ job advertisements, New Zealand GDT price index.
Italy market holiday, Germany retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, Swiss CPI, .
Canada producer prices, and U.S. redbook, ISM New York index, ISM manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Jan 06 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 102.77
The greenback’s intra-day break below yesterday’s 9-1/2 month trough at 102.60 signals MT decline has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 102.40/50, however, support at 102.17/20 should remain intact due to over sold condition and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 103.31/35 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 103.50/60.
There is a slew of data due from U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to the ADP employment at 13:15GMT. Street forecasts are 88k, down from previous reading of 307k. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its FOMC minutes from its previous meeting.
AceTraderFx Jan 07 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.39
Despite the greenback’s fall to a fresh 9-1/2 month trough at 102.60, subsequent rally to 103.44 yesterday suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and as price has rebounded again after a brief retreat to 102.95 near New York close, bullishness is retained and above 103.44 would yield stronger retracement to 103.70/75 before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 102.95 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 102.60 later.
Pay attention to the release of US jobless claims at 13:30GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecasts are 800k and 54.7 vs previous readings of 787k and 55.9 previously.
AceTraderFx Jan 08 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.94
Despite the greenback’s fall to a fresh 9-1/2 month trough at 102.60 on Wednesday, subsequent rally to 103.95 yesterday and intra-day break above this level suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger gain to 104.14/20 would be seen before prospect of a much-needed retreat due to overbought condition.
On the downside, only below 103.44 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 103.20/25.
Market focus today is on release of U.S. jobs report at 13:30GMT.
Street forecasts for non-farm payrolls and average earnings mm are 71k and 0.2% vs previous readings of 245k and 0.3% respectively.
AceTraderFx Jan 11 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.11
Despite dollar’s pullback from 104.08 to 103.61 in post-NFP Friday, subsequent rebound and intra-day break above said resistance to a near 1-month 104.21 high in Asia on renewed usd’s strength suggests upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month 102.60 trough has resumed and would extend to 104.53/57 after consolidation but 104.75 should limit upside.
On the downside, only below 103.61 would risk stronger retracement to 103.40/44, then 103.20/25.
U.S. calendar is empty today following Friday’s blockbuster jobs report, however, we have Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking in later New York session at 17:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 12 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.14
The greenback’s resumption of upmove from last Wednesday’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 to a near 5-week peak at 104.39 yesterday on usd’s broad-based strength suggests price would head to 104.55/60, then 104.75 after consolidation, however, 104.90/00 should limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the downside, only below 103.61 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk weakness to 103.40/44.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, Economy Watchers current, Economy Watchers outlook.
UK BRC retail sales, Italy retail sales.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Jan 13 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.67
The greenback’s selloff from 104.33 to 103.73 on usd’s broad-based weakness, then to 103.53 in Asia today suggests upmove from last Wednesday’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has ended at 104.39 on Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a stronger retracement to 103.28 (61.8%), then 102.95/00, however, 102.72 should remain intact and yield another rebound later.
On the upside, only above 104.04/08 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 104.39 again, break would head to 104.57, then 104.75 before down.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan machine tool orders.
Germany wholesale price index, Italy industrial output, EU industrial production.
Canada leading index, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Jan 14 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.01
Despite the greenback’s selloff from Monday’s 4-week peak at 104.39 to 103.53 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 104.19 today on news of a larger U.S. aid package suggests the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend upmove from December’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 to 104.57/60 later but 104.75/80 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 103.53 would dampen bullishness and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid uptrend to 103.28, then 102.95/00.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan corporate goods price index, machinery orders.
UK RICS housing price balance, China exports, imports, trade balance, Germany full year GDP.
U.S. import price index, export price index, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Jan 15 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.68
The greenback’s sharp retreat from 104.19 (Asia) to 103.57 on usd’s broad-based weakness in late New York yesterday suggests choppy trading below Monday’s 4-week peak at 104.39 would continue with downside bias, below Wednesday’s reaction low at 103.53 would yield stronger retracement of upmove from December’s 9-1/2 month trough at 102.60 to 103.20/25, then 102.95 later.
On the upside, only above 104.19 would abort daily bearishness and risk re-test of 104.39, break would head to 104.57/60 before prospect of correction.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand food price index, China house prices, Japan tertiary industry activity index, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance.
France budget balance, CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, core PPI, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jan 19 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.77
Despite the greenback’s rebound from last Thursday’s low at 103.57 to 103.93 today, subsequent retreat suggests further choppy trading below January’s 6-week peak at 104.39 would continue with downside bias and below last Wednesday’s reaction low at 103.53 would yield stronger retracement of recent upmove to 103.40/44, however, support at 102.95 should remain intact and yield recovery.
On the upside, only above 104.19 would dampen daily bearishness and risk re-test of 104.39, break would extend upmove to 104.57/60.
No U.S. ecoi. data is due out today as most U.S. financial markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.
AceTraderFx Jan 19 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.01
Dollar’s intra-day jump from 103.66 at Asian open to 104.08 on risk-on trading suggests pullback from January’s 4-week high at 104.39 has ended earlier at 103.53 last Wednesday and choppy sideways swings would be seen before upmove from 2021 9-1/2 month trough of 102.60 resumes and heads to 104.52/57 but 104.74/75 may hold on first testing.
On the downside, only below 103.62/66 would risk re-test of 103.53, break may extend weakness to 103.17/22.
U.S. traders will return later today after a long weekend holiday n although no U.S. eco. data is due out today, market will pay attention to the prepared speech as well as comments by ex-Fed Chief Janet Yellen when she testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on her confirmation hearing to become the next U.S. Treasury Secretary around 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 20 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.79
Despite the greenback’s rebound from Monday’s low at 103.64 to 104.08 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests price would continue to gyrate inside recent 104.39-103.53 range and as long as said lower level remains intact, bullishness remains and above 104.19 is needed to bring a re-test of January’s 6-week peak at 104.39 later.
On the downside, only below 103.53 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 103.20/22, then 102.95/00.
On the eco. data front, we only have 2nd-tier U.S. data due out in New York morning, however, traders will take cue from Joe Biden’s inauguration speech as he swear in to become the 46th president of U.S.A., the inauguration ceremony will begin around 12:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 21 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.55
The greenback’s break below last Wednesday’s low at 103.53 to 103.34 in Asia today on drop in U.S. Treasury yields suggests decline from last week’s high at 104.39 to retrace upmove from January’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has finally resumed and further weakness to 102.95 would be seen, however, aforesaid bottom would hold on 1st testing and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 104.08 would indicate a temporary trough has been made and risk stronger correction to 104.19, then 104.39 early next week.
On the data front, U.S. will later release weekly initial jobless claims plus other data (pls refer to our EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Jan 22 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.67
Despite the greenback’s break below last Wednesday’s low at 103.53 to 103.33 ahead of New York open yesterday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, intra-day stronger-than-expected rebound on risk-averse buying in usd suggests decline from last Monday’s 4-week peak at 104.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement to 104.08/10.
On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.
T.G.I.F., on the data front, today is PMI day, U.S. will later release Markit mfg n services PMIs at 14:45GMT n then existing home sales at 15:00GMT.
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AceTraderFx Jan 25 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.76
Despite the greenback’s break below previous support at 103.53 to 103.33 last Thursday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound on risk-averse buying in usd to 103.88 Friday suggests decline from last Monday’s 4-week peak at 104.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement to 104.08/10.
On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.
On the data front, the only eco. data due out from the U.S. is Dallas Fed mfg business indices at 15:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 26 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jan 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.77
Despite the greenback’s break below previous support at 103.53 to 103.33 last Thursday due to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound on risk-averse buying in usd to 103.93 yesterday suggests decline from last Monday’s 4-week peak at 104.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement to 104.08/10.
On the downside, only below 103.33 would revive bearishness for weakness to 102.95/00 but December’s 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 should hold on 1st testing.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia market holiday.
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, CBI distributive trades.
U.S. redbook, monthly home price, Case-Shiller home price index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major