AceTraderFx May 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 May 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.65
Despite dollar’s strong rebound on Wednesday from 108.58 to 109.30 in Australia yesterday due to hawkish Fed minutes, subsequent fall to 108.76, then intra-day break there suggests decline from May’s 1-month 109.78 peak would resume and extend marginally, however, oversold condition should prevent steep fall below 108.35/36 and yield another bounce.
On the upside, above 108.89 (Asia) would risk stronger retracement to 109.05/10 but 109.30/33 should cap upside.
Data to be released on Friday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Japan nationwide CPI, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, U.K. retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss industrial production, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, consumer confidence.
Canada retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sale.
This thread has been here since 2014 and I am sure there will be a lot of important information that I would get for my requirements. I am currently focussing on trading AUD/CAD and would like to request you help me with my analysis so that I can make the right decision.
AceTraderFx May 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 May 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.76
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from 108.58 last Wednesday to 109.30 on Thursday due to hawkish Fed minutes, subsequent fall to 108.61 on Friday there suggests decline from May’s 1-month 109.78 peak would resume and extend marginally, however, oversold condition should prevent steep fall below 108.35/36 and yield another bounce.
On the upside, above 108.89 (Asia) would risk stronger retracement to 109.05/10 but 109.30/33 should cap upside.
Data to be released next week :
New Zealand retail sales on Monday.
Market holidays in Germany, France and Switzerland.
AceTraderFx May 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 May 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.74
Although the greenback’s intra-day break below last Wednesday’s low at 108.58 signals decline from May’s 1-month peak at 109.78 has once again resumed and marginal weakness is like to be seen, near term loss of momentum would keep price above daily support at 108.35 and yield a much-needed rebound later this week.
On the downside, only a daily close below 108.35 would bring stronger retracement of upmove from 107.49 (April) to 107.90/00.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for detail.
We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York morning session.
AceTraderFx May 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 May 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.84
Although the greenback’s intra-day break below last Wednesday’s low at 108.58 signals decline from May’s 1-month peak at 109.78 has once again resumed and marginal weakness is like to be seen, near term loss of momentum would keep price above daily support at 108.35 and yield a much-needed rebound later this week.
On the downside, only a daily close below 108.35 would bring stronger retracement of upmove from 107.49 (April) to 107.90/00.
On the U.S. data front, the only data due out is MBA mortgage applications.
We also have a number Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session (please refer to our EI page for details).
AceTraderFx May 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 May 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.10
Despite the greenback’s 1-tick break below last Wednesday’s low at 108.58 on Tuesday, subsequent rally to 109.20 in Asia today signals decline from May’s 1-month peak at 109.78 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 109.30/33, then 109.50, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below aforesaid top.
On the downside, only below 108.71 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness to 108.57.
We have data dump in the U.S. later today, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to release of PCE n core PCE, GDP adn weekly jobless claims, if actual readings come in stronger than street forecast, the greenback would gain further.
AceTraderFx May 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 May 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.86
The greenback’s rally yesterday in tandem with U.S. Treasury yields and break above previous May’s 1-month peak at 109.78 to 109.95 today suggests erratic upmove from April’s bottom at 107.49 has once again resumed and further gain to 110.25/30 would be seen after consolidation, however, over bought condition would keep price below 110.50/60 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
On the downside, only below 109.33 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.90/00 before prospect of a rebound.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, construction orders.
Germany import prices, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicators, Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price, trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, Canada budget balance.
AceTraderFx May 31 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 31 May 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.69
Dollar’s erratic rise from April’s 107.49 low to a 6-week high at 110.20 on Friday suggests decline from March’s 1-year 110.96 peak has made a temporary bottom and subsequent retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise to 110.50/55 but 110.96 should hold today.
On the downside, only below 109.30/33 risks retracement to 109.04 (Thursday’s low), break, 108.71/76.
Data to be released today:
Australia market holiday, Japan industrial order, industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence, housing starts, China NBS manufacturing PMI, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ outlook activity.
UK market holiday, Italy CPI, Germany CPI, HICP.
Canada current account, producer prices and U.S. market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 01 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.60
Dollar’s erratic rise from April’s 107.49 low to a 6-week high at 110.20 on Friday suggests decline from March’s 1-year 110.96 peak has made a temporary bottom and subsequent retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise to 110.50/55 but 110.96 should hold today.
On the downside, only below 109.30/33 risks retracement to 109.04 (Thursday’s low), break, 108.71/76.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK nationwide house price, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, GDP, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, GDP, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, HICP, core HICP.
Canada GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Tuesday.
AceTraderFx Jun 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.80
Despite the greenback’s fall to 109.34 yesterday, intra-day strong rebound suggests the pullback from last Friday’s 6-week peak at 110.20 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 109.92 would confirm this view and yield re-test of aforesaid resistance, break would extend erratic umove from 107.49 (April) to 110.55 before prospect of a retreat due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 109.30/34 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.70/80.
U.S. will release 2nd-tier mortgage application data and later Fed’s beige book, however, a have a total of 5 Fed official scheduled to speak in New York session which may move the greenback a bit, please refer to our Economic Indicator page for details.
AceTraderFx Jun 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.79
As dollar has risen after pullback from yesterday’s high at 109.88 to 109.53 in New York, suggesting re-test of May’s 6-week high at 110.20 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from Aprils 107.49 trough to 110.50/55 before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.30/33 risks weakness to 109.00/04, then 108.57/62 later.
On the data front, we have a slew of U.S. eco. indicators, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to ADP private payrolls, weekly initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, ISM non-mfg index, we also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak later today.
AceTraderFx Jun 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.17
The greenback’s rally yesterday on the release of robust U.S. ADP data and break above May’s peak at 110.20 to a near 2-month top at 110.33 today suggests erratic upmove from April’s bottom at 107.49 remains in progress and further gain to 110.50/55 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below daily resistance at 110.96.
On the downside, only below 109.53 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.30/35.
T.G.I.F., however, all eyes are on U.S. May jobs report, ave. earnings at 12:30GMT and then durable goods n factory orders at 14:00GMT.
Before that, at 11:00GMT, Fed Chair J. Powell will participate in panel before virtual Bank for International Settlements “Green Swan Conference - Coordinating Finance on Climate,”.
AceTraderFx Jun 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.46
Despite the greenback’s brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff in New York on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.
Data to be released later today :
Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, Germany industrial orders, UK Halifax house prices, and EU Sentix index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.50
Despite the greenback’s brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff in New York on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.
On the data front, U.S. will release international trade balance, goods trade balance, redbook sales and JOLTS job openings, these data are not expected to have any impact on intra-day price swings, so traders will take cue from movement in U.S. yields in NY session.
AceTraderFx Jun 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.39
Despite the greenback’s brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 on Friday, subsequent selloff to 109.20 Monday on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.
U.S. will later release some second-tier eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
Once again, traders will take cue from intra-day movement in U.S. yields.
AceTraderFx Jun 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.49
Despite the greenback’s brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 on Friday, subsequent selloff to 109.20 Monday on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.
On the data front, market’s main focus this week is the release of U.S. inflation data, namely CPI n core CPI later today (please see our EI page for details).
Although street forecast for May annual CPI to be 4.7% vs previous reading of 4.2%, if actual figure comes in lower than estimate, then expect renewed usd’s selling.
On the flip side, if it’s higher, U.S. yields will jump and would push the pair higher to 110.00/10.
AceTraderFx Jun 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.49
Yesterday’s fall from 109.79 to 109.31 in NY due to selloff in U.S. yields suggests early correction from this week’s low at 109.20 (Mon) has ended and expect consolidation before decline from Jun’s near 2-month peak at 110.33 resumes, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 108.71/75.
Only above 109.79 dampens bearish outlook and may risk stronger retracement to 110.00/10.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, retail sales.
Germany wholesale price index, UK GDP industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate.
Canada capacity utilization, and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jun 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.09
The greenback’s rally from 109.33 in Europe on Friday to 110.15 today on rise in U.S. Treasury yields suggests pullback from June’s near 2-month peak at 110.33 has ended at 109.20 last Monday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.05/10, however, said resistance may hold on first testing and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 109.20 would revive bearishness for stronger weakness to 108.80/90 before prospect of a rebound later.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, food price index, GDT price index, Australia house price index, Japan tertiary industry activity.
Germany CPI, HICP, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
Canada housing starts and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, core PPI, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Jun 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.96
Dollar’s erratic rise from last Monday’s 109.20 low to 110.16 in Europe yesterday suggests pullback from June’s near 2-month 110.33 peak has ended and intra-day pullback will bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another upmove, above 110.33 yields 110.70/75 but March’s 1-year 110.96 peak should hold on first testing.
On the downside, only below 109.83 would bring stronger retracement to 109.60, break, 109.31/35.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data in New York morning (please refer to our EI page for details) which are likely to be ignored until FOMC announcemnet.
AceTraderFx Jun 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Jun 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.62
Dollar’s rally yesterday after Fed’s hawkish hold and then break of previous June’s 110.33 high to 110.71, then 110.82 in Asia today suggests early correction from March’s 1-year 110.96 peak has ended at 107.49 in April, above extends uptrend from 2021 January’s 102.60 trough to 111.60/70 before prospect of correction.
On the downside, only a daily close below 110.33 may risk stronger retracement to 109.81/85.
U.S. will later release some eco. data (please see for EI page for details) but market focus will be on intra-day move in U.S. yields as well as U.S. equities, further decline in U.S. stocks will trigger safe-haven usd buying.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major