AceTraderFx July 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.80
Despite dollar’s rally from last Thur’s 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 in Asia yesterday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 yesterday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish testimony and intra-day break below there suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.
On the upside, only above 110.21 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.40, then 110.64.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to another round of J. Powell’s comments when he testifies at 13:30GMT on Capital Hill on the second day of his 2-day semi-annual testimony before the Congress. We also have Chicago Fed President Evans speaking at 15:00GMT
AceTraderFx July 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.14
Despite dollar’s rally from last Thur’s 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 in Asia yesterday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 Wednesday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish testimony, then 109.72 yesterday suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.
On the upside, only above 110421 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.69.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, CPI, Japan interest rate decision, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, EU trade balance, HICP, Canada housing starts, wholesale trade, U.S. retail sales, business inventories and University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx July 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.89
Despite dollar’s rally from last July’s 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 Wednesday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish testimony, then 109.72 Thursday suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.
On the upside, only above 110421 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.69.
Data to be released today:
U.K. Rightmove house price, EU construction output.
U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.
AceTraderFx July 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.69
Despite dollar’s rally from last July’s 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 Wednesday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish testimony, then 109.72 Thursday suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.
On the upside, only above 110421 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.69.
U.S. will later release buidling permits, housing starts n then redbook sales later today. Traders will take cue from movement in U.S. stocks n U.S. yields.
AceTraderFx July 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.17
Despite dollar’s selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 on Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 109.95 yesterday and intra-day break above there suggests decline from July’s peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.34, however, resistance at 110.69 would remain intact and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.
U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light with second-tier MBA mortgage applications and new housing price index being the only data due out in New York morning. Therefore, traders will continue to take cue from intra-day moves in U.S. yields n U.S. stock futures until NY open.
AceTraderFx July 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.28
Despite dollar’s selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 on Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 109.95 yesterday and intra-day break above there suggests decline from July’s peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.34, however, resistance at 110.69 would remain intact and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to release of weekly jobless cliams, continued jobless claims.
AceTraderFx July 23: AceTraderFx July 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 July 2021 09:30GM
USD/JPY - 110.48
Despite dollar’s selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 on Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 110.38 on Wednesday and intra-day break above there suggests decline from July’s peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.97/00, however, resistance at 111.18 would remain intact and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.
Data to be released on Friday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan market holiday.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, U.K. retail sales, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI.
AceTraderFx July 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.16
Despite dollar’s selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 last Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 110.58 on Friday suggests decline from July’s peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.97/00, however, resistance at 111.18 would remain intact and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.
Data to be released later :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
Germany import prices, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. building permits, new home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx July 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.10
Despite dollar’s selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 last Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 110.58 on Friday suggests decline from July’s peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.97/00, however, resistance at 111.18 would remain intact and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.
The increase was also driven by a 1.3% rise in transportation fees as international freight prices continued to increase, highlighting the cost pressure companies are facing as economies across the globe re-open
AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.95
Although dlr’s decline from 110.59 (Fri) to 109.59 in tandem with U.S. yields suggests early cross-inspired rise from Jul’s 109.07 bottom has made a temporary top, intra-day rebound in Europe would bring consolidation ahead of key FOMC’s announcement.
A daily close above 110.13 signals pullback is over, then outlook would turn bullish for re-test of 110.59. Below 109.59 would shift risk to downside for weakness towards 109.07 later.
Ahead of FOMC announcement at 18:00GMT and post-FOMC press conference at 18:30GMT, we have some second-tier data due out, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx July 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.79
Yesterday’s fall from 110.28 following dovish comments by J. Powell at post-FOMC presser to 109.69 today suggests choppy trading below last week’s high at 110.59 would continue and intra-day broad-based usd’s weakness would pressure price to 109.59, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon Jul’s bottom at 109.07 should remain intact and yield rebound.
Only a daily close above 110.00 would bring another rise to 110.28, however, 110.59 should hold from here.
Now that the key FOMC is out of the way, traders will focus on U.S. eco. data, today we have a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for detials and pay attention to Q2 GDP, Q2 PCE, initial jobless claims n continued jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
AceTraderFx July 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 July 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.53
The greenback’s selloff following the Federal Reserve’s dovish hold on Wednesday and yesterday’s release of soft U.S. GDP data to 109.37 in Australia today suggests correction from July’s bottom at 109.07 has ended at 110.59 last Friday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend MT decline to 108.70/80 before prospect of a rebound.
On the upside, only abv 110.28 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 110.59 again.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan unemployment rate, industrial output, retail sales, construction orders, housing starts, consumer confidence, Australia PPI, France PPI.
Germany GDP, import prices, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicators, France CPI, Italy unemployment rate, GDP, CPI, EU HICP, GDP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, Canada GDP, producer prices and budget balance.
AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.65
The greenback’s selloff following the Federal Reserve’s dovish hold on Wednesday and yesterday’s release of soft U.S. GDP data to 109.37 in Australia today suggests correction from July’s bottom at 109.07 has ended at 110.59 last Friday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend Medium Term decline to 108.70/80 before prospect of a rebound.
On the upside, only above 110.28 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 110.59 again.
Data to be released later:
Australia AIG manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, China caixin manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada market holiday, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.22
The greenback’s selloff yesterday to 109.19 on broad-based risk-averse buying in jpy and intra-day break below there suggests a re-test of July’s bottom at 109.07 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from July’s peak at 111.65 towards 108.70/80 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 109.82 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.10/15 but 110.28 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan Tokyo core CPI, Australia building permits, RBA rate decision.
Swiss consumer confidence, EU producer prices.
U.S. redbook, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport, Canada Markit manufacturing PMI and New Zealand GDT price index.
AceTraderFx Aug 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.19
The greenback’s selloff yesterday to 109.19 on broad-based risk-averse buying in jpy and intra-day break below there suggests a re-test of July’s bottom at 109.07 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from July’s peak at 111.65 towards 108.70/80 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 109.82 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.10/15 but 110.28 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, retail sales, New Zealand labour cost index, employment change, unemployment rate, Japan services PMI, China caixin services PMI.
France budget balance, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, retail sales, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, U.K. Markit services PMI.U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and Canada building permits.
AceTraderFx Aug 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.61
Despite the greenback’s selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 109.67 on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve’s Clarida, then 109.75 today suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.10/20, however, overbought condition would keep price below 110.50/60.
On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to the usual weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Fed Governor Waller (voter) will speak on “Central Bank Digital Currency” before an virtual event at 14:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.76
Despite the greenback’s selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 109.67 on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve’s Clarida, then 109.75 today suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.10/20, however, overbought condition would keep price below 110.50/60.
On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.
Data to be released on Friday:
Australia AIG services index, Japan all household spending coincident index, leading indicator, China export, import, trade balance.
Germany industrial output, U.K. Halifax house prices, France current account, Non-Farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy industrial output.
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada employment change, unemployment change, and Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Aug 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.20
Despite the greenback’s selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.
On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.
Data to be released today:
China PPI, CPI, Swiss unemployment rate.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index.
U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.46
Despite the greenback’s selloff to a 2-month trough at 108.73 last Wednesday, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report and intra-day break above there suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.
On the downside, only below 109.41 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 109.07, then bring re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, Australia NAC business conditions, NAC business confidence.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
Canada leading index, U.S. labor costs, productivity and redbook retail sales.
AceTraderFx Aug 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.76
Despite the greenback’s selloff to a 2-month trough at 108.73 last Wednesday, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report and intra-day break above there suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.
On the downside, only below 109.41 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 109.07, then bring re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.
On the data front, this week’s market focus is today’s U.S. inflation data, CPI and core CPI (see our EI page for details), a higher-than-expected reading will send U.S. yields and the greenback higher.
On Fedspeak, we have Atlanta President Bostic (voter) and Kansas City Fed President George (non-voter) speaking at 16:00GMT n 18:00GMT respectively.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major