AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time :15 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.90
The greenback’s rally on Wednesday to 114.30 on Friday due to upbeat U.S. inflation data together with rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there confirms correction from October’s 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended at 112.73 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 114.44/50, then bring re-test of said top.
On the downside, only below 113.66 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 113.40/50.
The only U.S. eco. data due out is New York Fed manufacturing (market is keenly awaiting Tuesday’s retail sales), traders will take cue from intra-day move in US 10-year yield after early rally from last Tuesday’s 6-week low at 1.415% to 1.592% on Wednesday (circa 1.5545%).
AceTraderFx Nov 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time :16 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.17
The greenback’s intra-day 1-tick break of last Friday’s high at 114.30 suggests corrective upmove from last Tuesday’s bottom at 112.73 would head to 114.50/60 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below October’s 3-year peak at 114.69 this week and yield a much-needed retreat later.
On the downside, only below 113.70/75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid move towards 113.66, then 113.26/31.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data & today’s retail sales is the most important indicator for the week.
Street forecast for October m/m retail sales to come in at 1.2% vs prev. reading of 0.7%, a stronger-than-expected number would push US yields higher as well as the greenback.
AceTraderFx Nov 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time :17 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.82
The greenback’s intra-day 1-tick break of last Friday’s high at 114.30 suggests corrective upmove from last Tuesday’s bottom at 112.73 would head to 114.50/60 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below October’s 3-year peak at 114.69 this week and yield a much-needed retreat later.
On the downside, only below 113.70/75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid move towards 113.66, then 113.26/31.
After Tuesday’s key U.S. retail sales, U.S. will later release 2nd-tier MBA mortgage applications, building permits n housing starts. However, we have a large number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time :18 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.10
Although dollar’s strong retreat from Wednesday’s fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 to 113.94 (New York), then 113.89 today suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top and range trading is in store, reckon 113.76 would contain weakness and bring rebound but above 114.97 needed to extend gain to 115.30/35.
Only a daily close below 113.76 risks stronger retracement to 113.00/10 before prospect of another rise next week.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand inflation forecast, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, industrial production, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading index change and KC Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time :19 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 1114.43
Although dlr’s fall fm Wed’s fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 to 113.94 in tandem with US yields, then 113 .89 yesterday suggests recent uptrend has made a temp. top, subsequent rise to 114.48 Thu signals 1st leg of correction over n ‘choppy’ trading is in store.
Sell on recovery to 114.45 for 113.80 or buy there for 114.45. Only below 113.66 risks 113.31/36
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, France ILO employment rate, Germany producer prices, Italy industrial sales, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index and retail sales.
AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.15
Despite the greenback’s selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday’s fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.
Data to be released today:
EU consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index, existing hole sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.62
Despite the greenback’s selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday’s fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.
On the data front, the only eco. indicator from the U.S. is Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.89
Despite the greenback’s selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday’s fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.
Later today, we have data dump from the U.S. due to Thur’s Thanksgiving holiday, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to Q3 GDP as well as PCE price (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), if actual readings are higher than forecast, then expect U.S. yields to rise as well as the greenback.
Last but not the least, if you are still awake, we have release of previous FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT, however, market is expecting hawkish minutes.
AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 115.32
The greenback’s rally this week to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday on renomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for a second term and hawkish comments from central bank officials suggests Medium Term uptrend would head to 115.90/00 after minor consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 116.20/30 and yield a much-needed correction.
On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany GDP, Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx Nov 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.08
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday, intra-day selloff on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 113.00.
On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia retail sales.
Swiss non-farm payrolls, GDP, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence.
Canada budget balance.
AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.33
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday, intra-day selloff on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 113.00.
On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.
Data to be today:
Japan retail sales, Australia business inventories.
Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, Swiss current account, producer prices.
US pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Nov 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Nov 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 112.73
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.
On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data n we also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to release of Chicago PMI n consumer confidence. Fed chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen testify before a Senate Banking Committee hybrid hearing at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Dec 01: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 01 Dec 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.40
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.
On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.
The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to market-moving ADP private payrolls, then Market mfg PMI, ISM mfg index n last but not least Fed’s beige book.
Fed J. Powell will tesitfy again at Capital Hill but market reaction to more of his hawkish remarks is likely to much smaller after Tue’s move.
AceTraderFx Dec 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Dec 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.20
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.
On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.
Market is keenly awaiting release of key U.S. jobs report on Fri n today, the only data due out are weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims. We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak, please refer to our EI page for details.
After Fed chair J. Powell’s 2 consecutive days of testimonies on Capital Hill n his official removal on Fed’s perception of U.S. inflation is no longer ‘transitory’, traders are unlikely to react to comments by other FOMC members.
AceTraderFx Dec 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Dec 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.42
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.
On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.
Data to be released on Friday:
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, Japan services PMI, China caixin services PMI,
France budget balance, industrial output, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, U.K. Markit services PMI.
U.S. Non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit services PMI, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and labor productivity rate.
AceTraderFx Dec 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Dec 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.17
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.
On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.
Data to be released today:
Germany industrial orders, Italy retail sales, EU Sentix index and U.K. Markit construction PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Dec 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Dec 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.67
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.
On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data which are unlikely to move the market as focus is on U.S. stocks n treasury yields, pls refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Dec 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Dec 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.45
The greenback’s rise to 113.77 on Tuesday due to a rally in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields suggests the 1st leg of correction from November’s fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended at 112.54 last Tuesday and intra-day weakness would yield consolidation before prospect of another rise towards 114.20, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 114.50/60 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 113.08/10 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 112.70/80.
On the data front, U.S. will later release second-tier eco. data starting with MBA mortgage applications n then JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Dec 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.45
The greenback’s rise to 113.77 on Tuesday due to a rally in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields suggests the 1st leg of correction from November’s fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended at 112.54 last Tuesday and intra-day weakness would yield consolidation before prospect of another rise towards 114.20, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 114.50/60 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 113.08/10 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 112.70/80.
On the eco. data front, U.S. will release initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, wholesale inventories n sales.
AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Dec 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.58
Dollar’s decline from this week’s high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov’s 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.
Only abv 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.
Data for Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, retail sales, Japan corporate goods price.
U.K. GDP, construction output, trade balance, industrial output, manufacturing output, NIESR GDP estimate, Germany CPI, Italy industrial output.
Canada capacity utilization, U.S. CPI, University of Michigan sentiment and Federal budget.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major