AceTraderFx Jan 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 115.39
Despite dollar’s strong rebound form 115.05 to as high as 115.67 in New York Tue on active cross-selling in yen, subsequent retreat on broad-based usd’s weakness after less hawkish comments from Fed’s Powell suggests consolidation with downside bias remains, below 115.05 would extend recent decline from last Tue’s near 5-year 116.34 peak to 114.68/73.
On the upside, a daily close above 115.67 would signal said pullback has ended and stronger gain to 116.00/04 is seen.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data n market focus is Dec CPI, a higher-than-expected reading would give usd a boost. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non voter) will speaks on the economic outlook for 2022 before a virtual event at 18:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.40
Dollar’s selloff to a 2-week bottom at 114.39 in New York Wednesday on broad-based usd’s weakness despite strong but in-line U.S. inflation data suggests decline from Jan’s near 5-year 116.34 peak would head towards 113.95 before prospect of rebound due to loss of momentum.
On the upside, only a daily close above 115.05 signals 1st leg of correction over but 115.46 should cap upside.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to weekly jobless claims, continued claims, PPI.
We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak n Fed Governor Brainard will testify before a Senate Banking Committee hearing to consider the nomination to be vice chair of the Federal Reserve at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.81
Dollar’s selloff below Mon’s 115.05 bottom to a 3-week bottom at 114.01 in New York Thursday on continued usd’s weakness due to fall in U.S. yields, then intra-day break there to 113.65 in Asia suggests decline from Jan’s near 5-year 116.34 peak may head to 113.35/40 before prospect of a rebound due to loss of momentum.
On the upside, only a daily close above 114.39 signals a temporary trough is in place and stronger retracement to 114.65/70 is seen later.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan corporate goods price, China exports, imports, trade balance.
U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, France budget balance, CPI, EU trade balance.
US import prices, export prices, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories and University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.37
Although dollar’s short covering rally after last Fri’s selloff to a 3-1/2 week trough at 113.49 on active buying in yen signals recent decline from Jan’s 5-year peak at 116.34 has made a temp. low there and range trading is in store, reckon 114.70/75 would hold and yield another fall, below 114.01 would yield re-test of said support later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 114.70 would risk stronger gain towards 115.05, break, 115.25/30.
Data to be released today:
Japan machinery orders, tertiary industry activities, China industrial output, retail sales, GDP.
U.K. Rightmove house price, Italy CPI.
Canada leading index, U.S. Market Holiday and Canada manufacturing sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.73
Despite the greenback’s resumption of recent decline from Dec’s near 5-year peak of 116.34 to a 3-1/2 week trough of 113.49 last Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 114.64 Mon and intra-day break there on BOJ unchanged rate decision suggests correction over and stronger retracement to 115.60/65 is seen.
On the downside, only below 114.26/36 signals said recovery is over and would risk weakness to 113.90/00 later.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan BOJ interest rate decision, industrial output, capacity utilization, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer/import price, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectation, Canada housing starts, U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing market index and New Zealand GDT price index.
AceTraderFx Jan 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.41
Despite the greenback’s erratic rise from last Friday’s 3-1/2 week bottom at 113.49 to as high as 115.05 in Asia Tue, subsequent strong retreat to 114.46 in New York on safe-haven yen buying due to global stock weakness and intra-day break there suggests price may head to 114.65/70 before rebound.
On the upside, a daily close above 114.78 (Asia) would yield re-test of 115.05, break, 115.26/30 later.
U.S. will later release of slew of second-tier eco. data, so market will take cue from movement in U.S. yields n equities.
AceTraderFx Jan 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.34
Despite the greenback’s erratic rise from last Friday’s 3-1/2 week bottom at 113.49 to as high as 115.05 in Asia Tuesday, subsequent strong retreat to 114.46 in New York on safe-haven yen buying due to global stock weakness and intra-day break there suggests price may head to 114.65/70 before rebound.
On the upside, a daily close above 114.78 (Asia) would yield re-test of 115.05, break, 115.26/30 later.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to weekly jobless claims, continued jobless claims n Philly mfg index at 13:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.91
The greenback intra-day firm break of 113.97 (Thur) on active yen buying due to risk-off trade suggests recovery from last Fri’s 113.49 has possibly ended at 115.05 Tue and re-test of 113.49 would be forthcoming next, break would extend decline from Jan’s 5-year high at 116.34 towards 113.15, then 112.90/95.
On the upside, only a daily close above 114.22 signals a temporary bottom is in place and stronger retracement to 114.54/55 would be seen next week.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan nationwide CPI.
U.K. Gkf consumer confidence, retail sales, EU consumer confidence, Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index, retail sales and leading index change.
AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.69
Although the greenback’s selloff to 113.61 in New York last Fri signals correction from Jan’s 113.49 bottom has possibly ended at 115.05 last Tue, subsequent sideways swings then intra-day rebound would yield consolidation and below 113.49 would extend decline from Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 towards 113.15 later.
On the upside, a daily close above 114.54 would risk stronger retracement towards 115.00.
Data to be released today :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. national activity index, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 113.93
Despite the greenback’s selloff to a 1-month bottom at 113.48 in New York Mon, subsequent rebound to 113.99 in tandem with US yields n U.S. stocks, then intra-day break there to 114.09 in Australia suggests recent decline from Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 has made a temporary bottom there and retracement to 114.50/55 is likely before another fall.
On the downside, a daily close below 113.66 would yield further weakness towards 113.15 but 113.00 should hold.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to consumer confidence at 15:00GMT. The Fed starts its 2-day monetary policy today but market only anticipates a rate hike at Mar FOMC meeting.
AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major**
Update Time : 26 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.09
Although the greenback’s rebound from Mon’s 1-month bottom at 113.48 to as high as 114.15 in New York Tue suggests recent decline from Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 has made a temporary low there, subsequent retreat in tandem with US stocks signals consolidation with downside bias remains and re-test of said support is seen but loss of momentum should keep price abv 113.15.
On the upside, only a daily close above 114.20/25 would risk stronger retracement to 114.54/55.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia Market Holiday, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, new home sales, Fed interest rate decision and Canada BOC interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 114.86
Despite the greenback’s resumption of recent decline from Jan’s near 5-year 116.34 peak to Mon’s 1-month bottom at 113.47, subsequent rally to as high as 114.69 in post-FOMC New York Wed on Fed Powell’s hawkish comments, then intra-day break there suggests price would head towards 115.05 but above needed for further gain to 115.25/35.
On the downside, only a daily close below 114.15 would signal said recovery over and risk weakness to 113.79/84 tomorrow.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to weekly jobless claims n continued jobless claims as well as Q4 GDP n Q4 PCE.
AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 115.62
Despite the greenback’s resumption of recent decline from January’s near 5-year 116.34 peak to Mon’s 1-month bottom at 113.48, subsequent rally to as high as 115.48 yesterday, then intra-day break there suggests the correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 115.84/90, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 116.00/05 today and bring retreat.
On the downside, only a daily close below 114.15 would signal said recovery over and risk weakness to 113.79/84 tomorrow.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia PPI.
France consumer spending, GDP, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, German import prices, GDP, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, University of Michigan sentiment and Canada budget balance on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 31 Jan 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 115.43
Thu’s rally above last week’s 115.05 top (now sup) to 115.48 (Thur), then to 115.68 Fri suggests pull- back from Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34 has ended at last Mon’s 113.48 trough n intra-day retreat would bring consolidation before heading towards 116.34 ‘later’.
Trade from long side for 115.90 and only daily close below 115.05 risks stronger retrace to 114.68/78 .
Data to be released today:
Japan industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, China Market Holiday.
Italy GDP, EU GDP, Germany CPI.
Canada producer prices, U.S. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Feb 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 115.09
Despite dollar’s fall from last Friday’s 2-1/2 week peak at 115.68 to 114.17 on Wednesday, yesterday’s cross-inspired rally suggests the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there ahead of today’s US jobs report release and risk has increased for a correction.
On the downside, only below 114.50/55 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and pressure price back down to 114.17 early next week.
T.F.I.F., market is awaiting release of U.S. jobs report but this may turn out to a non event as markets are well-prepared for an Omicron-driven drop in January payrolls after a surprise negative reading in ADP private payrolls (-301k actual vs +207K forecast) on Wed. In addution, several Fed officials in recent days have signalled comfort with the underlying direction of U.S. economy and focus is inflation, so next Thur’s release of Jan’s CPI will grab more attention, however, beware of better-than-expected NFP which may trigger pre-weekend short covering in the greenback.
AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Feb 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 115.18
Usd’s strong rebound from 114.17 last Wed on cross-selling in yen and then rally to 115.42 in post-NPF trading last Fri on upbeat U.S. NFP suggests pullback from 115.68 has possibly ended and re-test of said resistance is seen, above would extend rise from 113.48 to 115.95.
On the downside, only a daily close below 115.00/04 may risk weakness to 114.76/78, break, 114.58 later.
Data to be released today:
New Zealand market holiday, Australia services index, retail sales, China services PMI, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, UK house prices, Germany industrial output, Italy unemployment rate, industrial output and EU sentix index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Feb 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Feb 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 115.35
Dollar’s intra-day cross-inspired break of last week’s 115.42 high suggests re-test of previous res at 115.68 would be seen after consolidation, break there would extend recent rise from Jan’s 1-month trough at 113.48 to 115.90/00, loss of momentum should cap price below Jan’s near 5-year peak at 116.34.
On the downside, below 115.00 any time signals temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement to 114.78.
On the data front, this week’s main focus is U.S. cpi on Thur, today, we have a slew of 2nd-tie eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. We also have Fed’s Bowman n Cleveland Fed’s President Mester (voter) speaking at 15:30GMT n 17:00GMT respectively.
AceTraderFx Feb 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Feb 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 115.60
Despite dollar’s fall from 115.68 to 114.17 last Wed, subsequent erratic rise in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day brief break of 115.68 suggests correction from Jan’s 5-year peak at 116.34 has ended at 113.48 (Jan) earlier and upside bias remains for stronger gain towards 116.08, break, 116.30/34.
On the downside, only a daily close below 115.33 signals a temporary top is in place and would risk stronger retracement towards 115.06, then 114.92.
On the U.S. eco. data front, we have CPI n initial jobless claims n continued jobless claims at 13:30GMT, then later fereal budget ar 19:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Feb 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 116.00
Despite the greenback’s brief retreat from Thur’s 5-week peak at 116.33 to 115.74 in New York, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields on Fed Bullard’s hawkish comments suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of Jan’s near 5-year 116.34 top, break would extend recent upmove towards 116.86 .
On the downside, only a daily close below 115.74 signals a temporary high is in place and would risk stronger retracement towards 115.33, then 115.06 on Mon.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, retail sales, Japan market holiday.
UK industrial output, manufacturing output, constriction output, trade balance, Swiss CPI.
U.S. consumer sentiment.
AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Feb 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 115.22
Despite the greenback’s rise to a 5-week peak at 116.33 on Thursday, subsequent selloff to 115.02 on Friday suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day retreat from 115.59 on safe-haven jpy buying due to escalating tensions in Ukraine suggests stronger retracement of recent upmove towards 114.78/80 would be seen.
On the upside, only above 115.60/65 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk gain towards 116.00/05 later this week.
Data to be released today:
New Zealand business NZ PSI, food price index.
Swiss producer/import price on Monday.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major