AceTraderForex Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

Trading Discussion Currencies
1

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

21 Aug 2014

EUR/USD[/B] - .... Germany services n manufacturing PMIs came in better-than-expected at 56.4 n 52.0 vs forecasts of 55.7 n 51.8 respectively.

France manufacturing PMI came in weaker-than-expected at 46.5 vs forecast of 47.8 whilst services PMI came in better-than-expected at 51.1 vs forecast of 50.0.

A piece of news extracted fm Bloomberg worth noting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide her take on the latest data on labor markets in a keynote speech on Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Yellen has in speeches and congressional testimony focused on reducing slack in labor markets. She measures that with an array of indicators - such as the share of unemployed who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more - not solely on the unemployment rate, which stood at 6.2 percent last month, down from 6.7 percent at the end of 2013.

In her Jackson Hole speech, Yellen could, as the minutes did, stress job-market progress. Or she could continue to point to the slack shown on her dashboard of labor-market data, which show the long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or longer, represent 33 percent of the jobless, above the 19 percent average of 2004 to 2007.

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

EUR/USD - .... The fact that euro rose in NY session on Thur despite the release of a slew of upbeat U.S. eco. data shows market is pretty short in the single currency n euro bears are looking to book profit on dips ahead of the main event of the day - the annual economic symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The world’s 2 most important central bankers are scheduled to speak later today with Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivering her speech (without Q&A) at 14:00GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak later at 18:30GMT. All in all, 33 central bankers & 9 ECB Governing Council members will attend this event which continues into Sat.

Until then, order flows plus unwinding of position will probably influence intra-day price swings. Offers are reported at 1.3285/95 with some stops building abv 1.3400. On the downside, initial bids are noted at 1.3260-50 and more below with stops below 1.3240, however, more bids are touted at 1.3230-20.

Earlier, news from Reuters in late Thur’s NY session worth noting, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser told network CNBC in an interview from a central bank symposium in Jackson hole, Wyoming, that he warned against waiting too long to hike rates.

He said ‘concerned that monetary policy not reacting to change in data; Fed is running a risky policy by not moving off zero bound; favors raising rates sooner and more gradually; not wise to make wages the centerpiece of monetary policy; does not think there is a significant under utilization of labor market resources.’

3

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

25 Aug 2014[/B] [I]01:50GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - .... The single currency tumbled to a fresh 11-month bottom of 1.3184 as the greenback opened higher vs its major peers in NZ on Mon, however, selling quickly subsided n price staged a minor recovery to 1.3206 at Asian open.

The fact that price is trading below Fri’s 1.3220 low suggests intra-day downside bias remains following a short-covering rebound to 1.3297 in Europe last Fri but bears returned in full force after Fed Chair Yellen’s rather balanced speech in Jackson Hole.
Offers are tipped at 1.3220/30 n more abv n initial bias are noted at 1.3185-80, suggesting selling euro is the favoured strategy.
Pay attention to the only EZ data at 08:00GMT, Germany will release Ifo Aug business sentiment index, street forecast is looking for a lower reading of 107.0 vs previous no. at 108.0, this will show German business confidence dropped to a 13-month low, so if actual figure is lower than forecast, euro shud face further downward pressure.

On Friday closing, ECB’s president Draghi said: “new ECB lending to banks will be ineffective in helping economy without government structural reforms to promote business;
if inflation drop continues, risks for price stability would increase and governing council would need to use all available tools in reaction;
drop in European inflation due to temporary factors, such as Ukraine, energy prices.”

Next week will see the release of Ifo business climate, current conditions and Ifo expectations, U.S. Markit services PMI and new home sales change [B]on Monday. [/B]

New Zealand’s imports, exports and trade balance, China’s leading economic index, U.S. durable goods and consumer confidence [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

Germany’s Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France’s business climate and Italy’s consumer confidence [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

Australia’s HIA new home sales, building Capex and capital expenditure, Germany’s unemployment rate and change, Italy’s retail sales, eurozone business climate, consumer confidence and economic and industrial sentiment; U.K. CBI distributive trades; Germany’s CPI and HICP, Canada’s current account, U.S. PCE, GDP and pending home sales [B]on Thursday. [/B]

Japan’s unemployment rate, CPI, industrial output and retail sales, New Zealand’s business outlook, Australia’s housing credit and private sector credit, Japan’s housing starts and construction orders, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy’s unemployment rate, eurozone inflation and unemployment rate, U.S. PCE, personal consumption and income, Canada’s GDP, producer prices and raw material prices, U.S. Chicago PMI, University of Michigan condition and expectations [B]on Friday. [/B]

4

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

26 Aug 2014[/B] 0[I]2:02GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - .... For 2 days in a row, Asia bore the brunt of the largest intra-day price swings. Despite meeting renewed selling in thin trading market condition ahead of Asian open on stop hunting, euro easily penetrated yesterday's 1.3183 low to a fresh 11-month trough of 1.3178, however, the single currency quickly pared intra-day loss and rebounded back to 1.3201.

Current usd’s broad-based retreat vs G7 currencies in Asian morning suggests euro still has legs to move higher as Fri’s CFTC report revealed euro shorts had climbed to its highest in 2 years, therefore, time is ripe for a short-covering rally to take place any time this week.

As no EZ data are due out in European morning, technical trading is expected to dominate near term price movement. Bids are noted at 1.3185-80 whilst some offers are tipped at 1.3210/20 with stops touted above there.

Last night, Ukraine Presidential spokesman said that it will hold a new parliamentary election on October 26.

[B]Tuesday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand’s imports, exports and trade balance, China’s leading economic index, U.S. durable goods and consumer confidence.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

26 Aug 2014[/B] [I]09:43GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - .... News fm Reuters, Ukrainian military spokesman Lysenko said, quote:

‘Ukrainian military has destroyed 12 armoured infantry carriers in Novoazovsk area using artillery n aircraft;
captured Russian soldiers were not in Ukraine by mistake, they were on a special mission.’
‘attack by Russian separatists on town of Novoazovsk is continuing at this very minute, a hospital there is on fire.’

Despite euro’s intra-day strong rebound from 1.3178 to 1.3214/15 at European open, the single currency came under renewed selling pressure and retreated to 1.3190 in European morning. However, price found some support there n staged a recovery.

Bids are now seen at 1.3180/85 n more below at 1.3160/70 with stops building up below there whilst offers are noted at 1.3250/60. Expect choppy trading to be seen till NY open in the absence of EZ economic data.

Earlier, Russian defence ministry said ‘Russian servicemen captured in Ukraine crossed the border by mistake.’

6

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

27 Aug 2014[/B] [I]01:55GMT[/I]
[B]EUR/USD[/B] - … The single currency continues its recent losing streak and easily penetrated o/n NY low at 1.3164 to a fresh near 1-year trough of 1.3152 after tripping stops below said yesterday low, however, bids above rumoured 1.3150 option barrier contained intra-day weakness.

We may well see a repeat of the price action seen in last 2 days in Asia, that is euro hits intra-day lows at Asian open n then stages a decent recovery into European open b4 coming off later in the day, so chasing present decline is not a good bet. Bids are noted at 1.3150 n more above daily sup at 1.3105, on the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3175/80 n more above would stop (fairly large) touted above 1.3220, suggesting selling the single currency on rally is the way to go.

Eco. data from the EZ today which may move price are Germany Gfk consumer confidence index at 06:00GMT, then French bus. confidence at 06:45GMT and then Italy’s consumer confidence at 08:00GMT. No data are due out from the U.S. today.

News from last night, Russia’s Utair airline said its MI-8 helicopter was shot down in South Sudan, according to preliminary information.

Three regional Federal Reserve banks, Philadelphia, Kansas city, Dallas Federal Reserve banks renewed requests to raise discount rate by 25 basis points to 1% ahead of July FOMC meeting, according to minutes on Tuesday. U.S. dollar rose broadly against major currencies in late New York.

U.S. welcomes Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire, urges parties to fully and completely comply with its terms and hopes it will be durable.

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of Germany’s Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France’s business climate and Italy’s consumer confidence. Investors are waiting for eurozone inflation data on Friday.

7

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

01 Sep 2014[/B] [I]07:55GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... Germany manufacturing grows at its slowest rate in 11 mths. The PMI figure came in weaker-than-expected at 51.4 vs forecast of 52.0.

Italy manufacturing slips back into contraction in August with the PMI read coming in at 49.8, lower than expectation of 50.8.

Euro pares intra-day losses in early European trading after hitting a fresh near 1-year low of 1.3119. Although range trading is seen ahead of release of a slew of EZ eco. data, offers at 1.3140/50 are likely to check present rebound. On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is reported at 1.3105/00, therefore, steep fall may is unlikely be seen n trading may quieten down after European midday as markets in U.S. & Canada are closed for Labor Day holiday today.

News from Reuters, Ukraine President Poroshenko said, 'events of past few dats show that Russia has launched a direct and open aggression against Ukraine, will forsee high-level personnel changes in armed forces after events in Ukraine last week.'
Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov said, ‘Ukrainian troops must leave positions from which they can fire on civilian targets, and expects contact group talks in Minsk today to address task of agreeing to immediate ceasefire without conditions. There will be no military intervention in Ukraine from Russia and Russia will defend its economy, citizens, business in response to sanctions.’

German statistics office showed that Geman Q2 final GDP confirmed at -0.2% Q/Q, +0.8% Y/Y.

The single currency showed muted reaction to the data n traded near intra-day fresh near 1-year trough at 1.3119. Bids are noted at 1.3110-00 n around 1.3080-70, whilst offers are placed at 1.3130-40 n then 1.3150/55 with stops emerging just abv 1.3170.

8

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

02 Sep 2014[/B] [I]01:49GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - .... Despite gaining a fleeting moment of respite in subdued North American session as markets in U.S. & Canada were closed for Labor Day holiday, euro bears returned shortly after Asian open as a surprise rally in the Nikkei led to intra-day rally in dlr/yen, this in turn triggered broad-based rise in the greenback.

The single currency fell from 1.3133 to a fresh near 1-year bottom of 1.3117 after penetrating Mon’s 1.3119 low. The lack of a recovery suggests euro bears would test daily chart obj. 1.3105, at present, some buying interest n stops are touted above 1.3105 n below 1.3100 respectively. Offers have been lowered to 1.3130/40 with stops above 1.3150, therefore, selling euro on recovery is the way to go.

Yesterday despite staging a short-covering rebound from a fresh 1-year low at 1.3116 to 1.3146 in early European morning, the single currency met renewed selling n retreated to 1.3127 after European close in thin trading conditions as North American markets (U.S. n Canada) remained closed for Labour day holiday.
Offers are now seen at 1.3145/50 n more above at 1.3160/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3120/30, suggesting selling on recovery is still the favored strategy.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

Australia building approvals, current account, RBA rate decision, Swiss GDP, UK construction PMI, EU PPI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

04 Sep 2014[/B] [I]02:13 GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- .... Euro is in holding pattern after yesterday's short-covering rebound to 1.3160 ahead of NY open, however, sellers quickly emerged once price faltered below offers 1.3160/70 but lack of follow-through selling lifted price from 1.3133.

Expect range trading to continue as traders are keep their powder dry ahead of ECB policy announcement at 11:45GMT, then ECB President Draghi’s press conference which guarantees sharp swings in the euro, until then, we have a slew of EZ data with French unemployment kicking off at 05:30GMT and then Germany’s industrial order at 06:00GMT.

Order flows n position adjustments would influence intra-day move, offers are reported at 1.3160/70 with stops building above there, more stops are touted above 1.3200. Initial bids are noted at 1.3135-25 with stops below there, more bids are reported at 1.3110/00 with fairly large stops below there.

Yesterday, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said the U.S. economy is ‘in a pretty good place’, adding that he believes it will soon be ready for gradual interest rate increases but stopping short of saying when.

“I don’t think it would be much of a brake on the economy if we had a gradual increase in interest rates,” Fisher told Reuters in an interview.

As to when the Fed should start raising rates from the near-zero level they’ve been since December 2008, he said, “My personal opinion is that the calendar has been moved forward, at least in my mind - how far forward, I couldn’t tell you right now.”

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of Australia’s exports, imports, trade balance and retail sales, Germany’s industrial orders, Bank of England’s rate decision, ECB’s rate decision, U.S. ADP employment, ECB’s press conference, U.S. initial jobless claims, productivity and international trade, Canada’s exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Markit services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

10

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

05 Sept 2014 08:18GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2947.. Euro gains temporary respite in Asia n European morning after experiencing the steepest 1-day fall in 2014, courtesy of ECB's surprise rate cuts & additional stimulus measures.

Although the early release of very upbeat German industrial production (Jul industrial output posted biggest gain since Mar 2012) failed to trigger a short-covering rebound in the single ccy, euro bears, after enjoying a field day bashing the euro yesterday, are keeping their powder dry ahead of release of anticipated robust U.S. jobs data later in the day. Expect range trading n position adjustments until the key U.S. NFP data at 12:30GMT. Initial offers are tipped at 1.2945/50 n more above with stops touted above 1.2995/1.3000 whilst bids are noted at 1.2910-00 with some stops below there.

A word of warning, as market is very very short in the euro, anything short of 220k in U.S. jobs growth may well trigger a broad-based short-covering rally in the euro whilst a robust 230-250k growth is likely to facilitate structural shorts to book profit ahead of the w/end. Be nimble n be quick after the U.S. jobs data.

Geman July industrial output +1.9% m/m vs revised +0.4% in June.
Earlier, German Econ Min said ‘July’s increase strengthens view positive trend in industry continues to the extend that geopolitical developments allow.’

Euro showed muted reaction to the upbeat data n continued to hover above yesterday’s fresh near 14-month low at 1.2920. Bids are noted at 1.2910-00 with mixture of bids n stops located at 1.2895/90 n 1.2880. On the upside, offers are placed at 1.2940-50 n around 1.2965/70 with stops emerging above 1.2990.

11

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

EUR/USD[/B] - … German Econ ministry said ‘German economy on track for expansion despite contraction in Q2; geopolitical conflicts are preventing better performance in economy; growth impulse coming mainly from U.S. and Asian emerging markets; overall foreign demand is weaker than previously expected.’

Ukraine’s Poroshenko says ‘Ukraine regrouping its forces in east not to stage new offensive but to defend territory.’

French FinMin said ‘France does not seek change of EU deficit rules but wants weak economic reliability to be taken into account; sees 2015 public deficit of 4.3%, will reach 3% target in 2017.’

ECB’s Coeure said ‘ECB measures will be much more effective if we see structural reforms and fiscal position appropriate for euro area; TLTROs and measures announced last wk are not a quantitative increase in liquidity, or QE.’

During the Asian opening, the single currency finally staged a near 1-cent rebound from yesterday’s fresh near 14-month trough of 1.2860 to 1.2957 in NY afternoon, traders cited the move was broad-based short-covering in euro.

As the magnitude of said Tue’s rebound fm 1.2860 was the largest seen in over a month. looks like euro has finally made a temporary base there, a few days of ‘choppy’ consolidation is in store. Having said that, intra-day retreat fm 1.2952 in Asia suggests euro bears are not yet beaten and would make further attempts to test the downside side, so trading on both sides of the market is the appropriate strategy today. Offers are tipped at 1.2950-60 with stops abv there, more offers are reported at 1.2980/90. Initial bids are noted at 1.2920-00 area with stops below there, however, there is market chatter of good buying interest at 1.2860-50 area.

12

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

15 Sep 2014[/B] [I]02:00GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] -..... The single currency moved in choppy fashion in fairly thin Asian trading due to closure of financial markets in Japan. Despite opening higher in NZ, failure to re-test Fri's near 1-week high of 1.2980 (intra-day top was 1.2979) prompted selling by st specs, price retreated to 1.2950.

Although range trading is expected to continue, Fri’s erratic rise abv 1.2963 res to 1.2980 suggests recent short-covering activities wud continue as Fri’s release of CFTC data showed for the 1st time in 15 months, euro shorts pared their short positions. Bids are noted at 1.2950-40 n more below with some stops touted below 1.2900. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2980/90 with stops reported building abv the psychological 1.3000 level.

A piece of Reuters news which came out after Fri’s close worth noting:
ECB President Mario Draghi promised on Fri the central bank planned asset purchase programme wud be “big” but stressed that only structural reforms by govts could revive the moribund euro zone economy.
Draghi told a news conference following a meeting of FinMins in Milan, “our balance sheet is expected to move towards the size it had at the start of 2012.” He declined to give an estimate on the size of the ABS programme, saying “we know it’s going to be big, but we are hesitant to give a number now”.
Draghi believed recovery was continuing, even though it was “fragile, uneven and weak”. However, with interest rates now at their “lower bound”, he stressed that it was now up to govts to reform their economies to improve their ability to grow.
“No matter what monetary or even fiscal stimulus can be decided, we won’t see much growth coming from these measures … if there are no serious structural reforms,” the ECB chief said.

On Friday closing, the single currency jumped to 1.2979/80 in thin New York trading, however, selling interest there caped euro’s upside n price retreated to around 1.2940. Offers are now tipped at 1.2975/80 n more at 1.2990. On the downside, bids are located at 1.2925-20 n more at 1.2910.

[B]This week[/B] will see the release of U.K. Rightmove house prices, Swiss producer or import price, eurozone Eurostat trade, U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, capacity utilization, industrial and manufacturing output [B]on Monday. [/B]

Australia’s RBA meeting minutes, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Bank of England quarterly bulletin, Germany’s ZEW current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. core PPI final demand, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S. Redbook, overall net capital flows [B]on Tuesday[/B].

New Zealand’s current account, Bank of England minutes, U.K. average earnings, claimant count unemployment, ILO unemployment, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, eurozone inflation, U.S. core CPI, CPI, current account, NAHB housing market index, FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement [B]on Wednesday[/B].

New Zealand’s GDP, Japan’s import, export and trade balance, China’s house prices, Swiss trade balance and interest rate decision, U.K. retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business index [B]on Thursday[/B]. U.K. Independence referendum.

Germany’s producer prices, eurozone current account, Canada’s core CPI, CPI inflation and wholesale trade and U.S. leading index [B]on Friday.[/B]

13

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

15 Sep 2014[/B] [I]09:45GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Euro falls in European trading as short-term specs sold euro broadly vs usd, yen, gbp, chf n aud at European open, tripping initial stops at 1.2940-35, price hit an intra-day low of 1.2916.

The release of OECD statements on Reuters when the think-tank urged much more aggressive stimulus (QE) fm the ECB further weighed on the single currency.

OECD released its growth forecasts, in which it
’cuts U.S. 2014 GDP growth forecast to 2.1% fm 2.6% in May;
cuts euro area GDP growth forecast to 0.8% fm 1.2% in May;
cuts Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% fm 1.2% in May;
cuts Germany’s 2014 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% fm 1.9% in May;
cuts France’s GDP growth forecast to 0.4% fm 0.9% in May;
cuts Italy’s GDP growth forecast to -0.4% fm 0.5% in May;
trims Britain’s GDP growth forecast to 3.1% fm 3.2% in May.’

14

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

17 Sep 2014

EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Although euro remained under pressure in Asia and briefly dipped to 1.2945 at European open, renewed broad-based weakness in dlr lifted price to 1.2957.

Investors are reluctant to add bets before the release of euro zone inflation data at 09:00GMT and range trading below yesterday’s high of 1.2995 should continue. Bids are touted at 1.2940-30 and around 1.2920 with stops emerging below 1.2900, whilst offers are placed at 1.2975/80 n then 1.2990-00 with stops noted just above 1.3000.

Earlier, The single currency moved in volatile fashion on Tue. Despite initial retreat fm Asian high at 1.2962 to 1.2923 in European morning, euro bounced to 1.2967 n then climbed to fresh 1-1/2 week peak at 1.2995 in NY as traders cited WSJ webcast saying Fed will stick to near-zero rate language. Later, euro dropped to 1.2950 in Australia n then marginally to 1.2949 shortly after Asian open on renewed broad-based strength in greenback b4 moving sideways.

Today, eurozone will release a slew of inflation data and market expects the readings to pick up last month, however, economists are skeptical about how successful the latest measures fm ECB will be. Until then, range trading is envisaged.

Bids are placed at 1.2940-30 n around 1.2920 with stops emerging below 1.2900, whilst offers are located at 1.2975/80 n then 1.2990-00 with stops noted just above 1.3000.

15

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Sep 2014

EUR/USD[/B] - 1.2746...... Euro finally gains respite in Asia after suffering from recent losing streak. Despite yesterday's climatic sell off in European morning after penetrating key daily sup at 1.2745 (2013 bottom in Apr) to a near 22-month trough of 1.2696 (1.26955 on EBS), minor short-covering lifted the pair to 1.2736 and price came under renewed selling on Dallas Fed Richard Fisher comments on Reuters that the Fed may start raising rates around the spring of 2015, at the earlier end of market expectations, bids above 1.2700 contained pullback and euro later climbed to 1.3765 in NY as weaker-than-expected U.S. data prompted further short-covering in euro.

Although euro has edged lower in Asia from 1.2761 on intra-day renewed dlr’s strength caused by strong bounce in dlr/yen, range trading is expected to continue n traders would look to cover their shorts ahead of the weekend. Initial bids are noted at 1.3730-25 and more at 1.3700 with stops reported below 1.2695, however, good buying interest is touted near 1.2690/80.

On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2760/65 and more at 1.2775/80 with stops (fairly large) building abv 1.3800/10 area.

16

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

29 Sep 2014[/B] [I]02:09GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - … Euro briefly fell marginally below Fri’s NY low of 1.2677 to a fresh 22-month at 1.2667/68 in NZ as short-term specs bot the greenback broadly shortly after Mon open following Fri’s renewed weakness in NY session after upbeat revised U.S. GDP data, however, lack of follow-through selling lifted the pair to 1.2688 in Asia.

Looks like range trading is in store until European open as traders await release of EZ confidence index n German inflation data at 09:00GMT.
With Fri’s release of CFTC report which showed net long usd positions hitting at 15-month high, selling euro on intra-day recovery is the way to go as recent losing streak is expected to continue.
Offers are tipped at 1.2690/00 n more abv with some stops touted abv 1.2730. On the downside, some bids are noted at 1.2670-60 with some stops below there.

Last week, ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene told a conference on Fri in Brussels the central bank be prepared to enact more stimulus measures if necessary to increase liquidity in the euro area.
Coene held out the possibility that the targeted-loan program that the ECB announced in Jun wouldn’t be adequate to spur lending n stimulate the economy of the 18-nation euro area. He said "if we estimate that it? insufficient, inevitably we will add other instruments at our disposal to increase the balance sheet of the central bank, if it’s necessary."
Coene added he considered Sep’s demand to be at predicted levels, n he expected it to be greater at the next operation in Dec. “The fact that they didn’t take a lot seemed to us more or less foreseeable in the month of Sep,” “I think there will be more pronounced demand for the December offering.”

Next week will see the release of U.K. mortgage approvals, eurozone business climate, consumer confidence, economic and industrial sentiment, Germany’s CPI and HICP, U.S. PCE price index, core PCE price index, personal income and consumption, pending home index and pending sales change [B]on Monday;[/B]

Gfk consumer confidence, Japan’s unemployment rate, all household spending, industrial prelim. output, IP forecast and retail sales, China’s final HSBC manufacturing PMI, Japan’s construction orders and housing starts, Germany’s retail sales, U.K. national house price, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany’s unemployment rate, Canada’s GDP and producer prices, U.S. Redbook, CaseShiller 20 MM house prices, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence [B]on Tuesday; [/B]

Japan’s Tankan, China’s NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia’s retail sales, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, Swiss PMI, German and eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, ADP National employment, Canada’s RBC manufacturing PMI, U.S. final Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI [B]on Wednesday;[/B]

Australia’s HIA new home sales, building approvals and trade balance, U.K. Markit construction PMI, eurozone producer prices, ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, ISM New York index, revised durable goods and factory orders [B]on Thursday; [/B]

China’s NBS non-manufacturing PMI, German and eurozone Markit final services PMI, eurozone retail sales, Canada’s imports, exports and trade balance, U.S. average earnings, government payrolls, unemployment rate, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing new orders and PMI [B]on Friday.[/B]

17

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

30 Sep 2014[/B] [I] 01:46GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Euro trades narrowly with a downside bias on the last trading day of the month (also end of Q3) in Asia after staging a short-covering rebound from Monday's fresh 22-month low of 1.2664 to 1.2715 shortly after NY open.

However, renewed selling quickly emerged and pushed price lower to 1.2678 but another round of buying returned and lifted euro to 1.2712 ahead of European close but euro later drifted lower in NY afternoon after failure to absorb offers at 1.2710/15.

The single currency touched an intra-day low of 1.2681 in Asia and range trading with a soft bias is seen ahead of release of a slew of euro area eco. data later starting with Germany’s retail sales at 06:00GMT, then German unemployment at 07:55GMT followed by Italy’s unemployment at 08:00GMT. At 09:00GMT, EZ will release the key inflation & unemployment data, Italy will release CPI & PPI data.

Offers are reported at 1.2705/15 with stops above 1.2730. Initial bids are noted at 1.2880-70 with a mixture of buying interest n stops touted at 1.2665-60.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

Japan unemployment, household spending, industrial output, retail sales, New Zealand RBNZ business outlook, China manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, unemployment, UK consumer confidence, house prices, GDP, France producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment, CPI, EU inflation, Canada GDP, producer prices, U.S. redbook retail sales, caseshiller house prices, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.

18

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

08 Oct 2014

EUR/USD[/B] - ..... The single currency continued to swing wildly in Tuesday's volatile trading. Despite staging a rebound from Asian low at 1.2605 to 1.2665 in Europe, offers below previous day's 1.2675 high checked intra-day gain n euro bears gave the apir another bashing after downbeat German industrial orders, euro fell to session lows of 1.2584 after tripping stops below 1.26000, however, renewed buying emerged n helped price ratchet higher in choppy fashion to a high of 1.2682.

Although st specs bot euro due to renewed dlr’s weakness in yen ahead of Asian open n pushed price to 1.2683, another round of selling quickly emerged at Asian open n pressured euro to 1.2633 ahead of Tokyo lunch session.

Looks like we have seen an intra-day high for now n consolidation with downside bias is seen until European open. No eco data is due out today, so order flows would influence intra-day price movement. Offers are tipped at 1.2650/55 n more above with some stops touted above 1.2690. Some bids (not large) are reported at 1.2610-00 and more with stops below 1.2580, suggesting euro would remain under pressure in the near term.

19

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

08 Oct 2014[/B] [I] 08:30GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... ECB's Constancio said, quote:

‘new policy measures mark a new phase in ECB’s approach;
we are ready to steer our balance sheet twds significantly higher lvls to ease mon. policy stance;
economy is still weak and fragile;
very low inflation raises serious concerns;
stock of covered bonds that meets our requirements is about 600 bln euros; around 400 bln of ABS stock qualifies as purchaseable assets for new ECB programme;
amounts we will be lower than the theoretical amount;
not aiming to buy ABS/covered bonds mostly from banks, but purchases can also support banks on capital side.’

20

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

10 Oct 2014[/B] [I]04:55GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... Whilst ECB President Draghi continues to call for more stimulus to boost recovery in the EZ, ECB Governing Council member, Reuters reported Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said Germany will keep warning about the dangers of short-term fiscal stimulus at talks on the global economy in Washington although risks to growth are on the downside.

Weidmann said he expected growth in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, to come in below levels expected earlier this year, but maintained its fundamentals were sound.

Pressure is mounting for Germany to use its healthy budget to boost public spending n spur growth in Europe n Weidmann said he expected discussion of stimulus on Friday, when G20 officials meet on the sidelines of World Bank n IMF meetings.

He told reporters “(The) position is clear, in order to create sustainable growth there’s little use in setting off an economic flash fire, particularly against a backdrop of historically high debt.” Sound budget policy was an important condition for creating an environment favorable to investment n jobs, he said.

Growth in the euro area as a whole would be restrained going forward n downside risks prevailed at a global level, especially fm geopolitical factors, Weidmann added.