AceTraderForex Dec 9: Weekly Technical analysiss on Major

Trading Discussion Currencies
1

WEEKLY USD/JPY OUTLOOK
09 Dec 2013 00:16GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
102.69

55 HR EMA
102.44

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
O/bot

13 HR RSI
76

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
104.51 50% proj. of 97.60-103.38 fm 101.62
103.74 - 2013 peak (May 2)
103.38 - Last Tue’s 6-month high

Support
102.44 - Last Thur’s high
102.21 - Last Fri’s European morning high
101.62 - Last Thur’s low

. USD/JPY - 103.08.… Although the greenback ratcheted lower initially last week after climbing to a 6-month high of 103.38 (Tue), decline in the Nikkei fm 6-year highs prompted broad-based buying of yen n pressured price to 101.62 b4 rallying strongly back to 102.97 on Fri, n then 103.22 in Australia today.

. Looking at the daily picture, as indicated in previous update, dlr’s close
abv 102.84 res Fri signals correction fm 103.74 is over n the pair is posied to
re-test 2013 4-1/2 year peak at 103.74 (May), break there wud confirm LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 (Oct) has finally resumed, then the pair is en route twd 107.96 in Q1 2014, being 50% proj. of 75.32-103.74 measured fm 93.75. This week, abv 103.74 wud extend initial gain to 104.51 (50% proj. of MT intermediate rise fm 97.60-103.38 fm 101.62 but 105.19 (61.8% proj.) wud cap upside. Only below 102.21 wud dampen bullishness n risk retracement twd 101.15.

. Today, as current price is abv the 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting dlr
wud head to 103.38 1st, break wud encourage for subsequent re-test of said 2013
peak n only below 102.41/44 aborts intra-day bullishness on dlr.

800×600

2

[B]WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ON USD/JPY
19 Dec 2013[/B] [I]15:44GMT[/I]

. USD/JPY - 104.15 … Dollar’s rally abv this year’s high at 103.74 (May)
confirms an upside break of the ‘triangle’ consolidation fm there has ended
earlier at 93.75 n LT rise fm record low at 75.32 (Oct 2011) has resumed for
further gain to 105.51 n then twds 107.06 in Q1 2014.

. Our labelling of the low at 79.75 major wave [3] trough n 147.64 is the
major wave [4] terminus. The decline fm 147.64 is the ‘final’ wave [5] which has
’possibly’ ended at 75.32 in Oct 2011, the subsequent rally is an impulsive wave
with 1::75.32-84.18; 2:77.13 n we are taking the view that wave 3 has ended at
103.74 n wave 4 ended with a triangle with a:103.74-93.78, b:101.53, c:95.79:
d:100.62 n e:96.55 n wave 5 is now in progress for further gain to 107.06, being
50% projection of 77.13-103.74 measured fm 93.75 later this month or in Q1 2014.

   On the downside, only below 101.53 (b-leg top) wud signal a temp. top is

made n risk retrace. to 100.00 but strg buying interest shud emerge well abv
daily sup at 96.55.