AceTraderFx Aug 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Aug 2017 2:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1878… Euro remains on the back foot in Asian trading n just fell below o/n NY low of 1.1881 to 1.1872 as intra-day rally in dlr/yen triggered renewed broad-based usd strength.
Well, despite Tuesday’s jump above the 1.2000 mark to a fresh 30-month peak of 1.2070, euro has become victim of its own success as the move occurred in the absence of solid fundamental factor, so profit taking quickly emerged and knocked price lower, the daily close below 1.2000 on Tue was the warning light of a short-term ‘reversal’ of recent uptrend.
Although intra-day weakness may squeeze out some weak n perhaps late euro longs, further sharp fall is unlikely ahead of a slew of EZ data.
Bids are noted at 1.1870-60 with some stops below there.
Offers are tipped at 1.1900/10 and more above with stops above 1.1950.
Euro area countries will relesse German retail sales, France’s PPI and CPI, Germany’s unemployment rate, the same from Italy and the EU, then EU and Italy’s CPI.
AceTraderFx Sept 01: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Sept 2017 3:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1909… The single currency regained traction in Asia on Friday after a ‘roller-coaster’ session on Thursday. Although short covering lifted price from 1.1868 to 1.1906 in European morning, euro tumbled broadly n hit session lows of 1.1824 at NY open after sources told Reuters some ECB members were concerned by the recent strength of the euro n the central bank is highly unlikely to discuss tapering at its next Sept. meeting.
However, release of soft U.S. core PCE data (a key inflation measure by the Fed) led to broad-based decline in the usd as well as U.S. yields, this triggered a strong short covering rebound n price later rallied back to 1.1912 near the close, then marginally higher to 1.1923 in Australia before easing.
Well, looks like the decline from Tuesday’s 30-month peak at 1.2070 has hit a bottom and range trading would continue ahead of U.S. NFP, however, it is our view euro’s Medium Term uptrend has made a temp. top, current rebound is a retracement and if U.S. jobs report (NFP and ave. wage growth) is upbeat, usd may stage another rally.
For now, bids are noted art 1.1890-80 and more at 1.1850/40 with stops below 1.1820.
Offers are tipped at 1.1920/30 and more above there with stops above 1.1950.
Today is PMI day, Italy will release Markei mfg PMI, then the same from France, Germany n Italy as as as Italy’s GDP. ECB board member Nowotny will participate in a panel discussion in Alpbach, Austria at 06:30GMT, then ECB Vice-President Constancio will give a speech at a forum in Cernobbio, Italy at 09:15 GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 04: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Sept 2017 1:35GMT
USD/JPY - 109.72… Tension runs high in the North Korean Peninsular following Sun’s nuclear test by N. Korea, causing the dlr open sharply lower at Mon open in New Zealand due to safe-haven buying of yen, the pair fell to 109.32 in New Zealand vs Friday’s close of 110.27, however, lack of follow-trough selling quickly lifted dlr to 109.92 in early Tokyo trading on buying by Japanese names (importers) before easing.
Looks like an intra-day low has been made at 109.32 and range trading would continue in Europe, if dlr is hovering near 110.00, European traders may well sell the greenback to test the downside but if it is trading below 109.32, steep fall is unlikely to be seen as traders only recalled dlr rallying strongly from last Tuesday’s 4-1/2 month low after N. Korea fires missile above Japan and trading may quieten down in N. American session as financial markets in the U.S. n Canada are closed for Labor Day holiday.
Offers are tipped at 109.90/00 and more above with stops above 110.50.
Bids are noted at 109.60-50 n more below with stops below 109.30.
AceTraderFx Sept 05: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Sept 2017 2:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1899… Euro moved broadly sideways in lackluster Mon trading as financial markets in the U.S. and Canada were both closed for Labor Day holiday.
Despite intra-day ‘yen-led’ rise to 1.1922 in Europe, selling interest quickly emerged n knocked price down to 1.1890. The pair then rebounded to 1.1920 after European close but only to fall back to 1.19890 again.
Looks like range trading would continue until European open and release of a slew of EU data together with return of North American traders, trading should revert back to normal and we should expect brisk trading for rest of the day.
Offers are tipped at 1.1920/30 with stops above 1.1950, more stops are reported above 1.1980.
Initial bids are noted at 1.1885-75 with stops below 1.1850 and more stops are building below last week’s low at 1.1824.
Today is PMI day, Italy will kick off 1st with Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany and then the EU including retail sales.
AceTraderFx Sept 06: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Sept 2017 2:00GMT
USD/JPY - 108.76… Dlr is nursing loss after yesterday’s intra-day selloff from 109.84 to as low as 108.63, then 108.51 at Tokyo open before staging a minor bounce in short covering.
Yesterday’s decline on active safe-haven buying of yen due to continued tensions on the Korean Peninsula, then subsequent dovish comments by Fed governor Lael Brainard where both key factors sent U.S. Treasury yields down sharply (benchmark 10-year yield fell to a 10-1/2 month low of 2.061%, then to 2.054% today).
Looks like the greenback would later re-test last week’s 4-1/2 month low at 108.27 as Korean tensions are expected to linger on head of North Korea’s Foundation Day on Sep 9 (Sat). Current broad-based losses in Asian stocks following yesterday’s decline in U.S. equities should weigh on the buck, so selling dlr on recovery is the way to go as price is en route to re-test 2017 bottom at 108.13 (April).
Offers are tipped at 108.85/95 n more above with stops above 109.20, more stops are reported above 109.55.
Bids are noted at 108.60-50 and more below with large stops touted below 108.00.
U.S. will release trade balance, Redbook sales, Markit services PMI and ISM non-mfg PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 07: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Sept 2017 2:40GMT
USD/JPY - 109.11… Dlr pared yesterday’s intra-day gain and fell briefly to 108.89 on Bloomberg news that South Korean PM said North may launch missile on Sept 9, however, as market has already been warned of such occurrence since yesterday, renewed buying quickly lifted the pair.
AS dlr’s rally on Wednesday from 108.46 to 109.39 due to extension of the U.S. debt ceiling was also supported by by rising U.S. Treasury yields, suggesting further choppy trading above July’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 108.18 would continue with upside bias, therefore, trading the greenback from long side in anticipation of further gain after intra-day choppy consolidation is over is favoured.
Bids are noted at 108.95/90 and more below with some stops below 108.70.
Offers are tipped at 109.35/40 with stops above 109.60 n more stops above reported above 110.00.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light with weekly jobless claims, labor costs and nonfarm productivity being the data due out later in the day.
AceTraderFx Sept 08: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Sept 2017 2:40GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2033… Euro trades steadily with a firm undertone in a rather subdued Asian morning after yesterday’s surge to 1.2059, however, the rise was not exactly plain sailing.
Although the pair briefly jumped to 1.2022 as the start of ECB Draghi’s press conference, price swiftly tanked to 1.1930 in matter of a few seconds before rising again to session high of 1.2059 as Dragi refused to jawbone the euro lower, however, long liquidation later sent price back down to 1.1985 and later chopped broadly sideways in New York afternoon.
As market has interpreted Draghi’s comments esp. the ECB policymakers will discuss QE tapering in October’s meeting as bullish, buying euro on dips in anticipation of a re-test of August’s 30-month peak at 1.2070 is recommended.
Bids are noted at 1.2020-00 are with stops below 1.1980, more stops are reported below 1.1930.
Offers are tipped at 1.2060/70 with stops above there, more stops are reported above 1.2100.
Data to be released today:
Eur area eco. calendar is pretty light today, Germany will release exports, imports and trade data, then Frances’s industrial production. ECB Council Member and Bank of Finland Governor Liikanen will speak in Finnish parliament at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Sept 2017 3:10GMT
USD/JPY - 108.41… Dlr is currently trading around the same level it was at this time last Friday after having fallen to a fresh 10-1/2 month bottom of 107.32 at New York open, however, price later climbed back to 108.07 as rebound in U.S. yields prompted short covering.
The pair opened higher to 108.19 in New York on Monday as N. Korea did not launch any missile as market expectation to to celebrate its Foundation Day last Saturday, such action led to broad-based yen selling and continued usd’s gain vs other G7 currencies, dlr climbed to 108.57 as U.S. yields went higher in Asia.
Looks like a temporary low has been made at 107.32 on Friday n European traders may well buy the buck if U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year is now around 2.0906% vs Friday’s low at 2.0161%) edge higher in Europe.
Bids are noted at 108.20-00 with some stops below there.
Offers are tipped at 108.55/65 with stops above 108.70, more stops are reported above 109.00.
As no eco. data is due out in the U.S., funds flow will have a major influence on intra-day price swings.
AceTraderFx Sept 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Sept 2017 2:40GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1954… The single currency is nursing losses in subdued Asian morning but remains on the back foot after falling 2 ticks below o/n New York low at 1.1948 after meeting renewed selling at 1.1964 in Australia, however, lack of follow-through selling has give the pair a bit of respite.
Yesterday’s break of last Fri’s 1.2016 low and the daily close below 1.2000 mark bodes ill for the euro in the next few days as this bearish price action signals Medium Term uptrend has indeed formed a temp. top at Friday’s fresh 30-month peak at 1.2093 and consolidation with downside bias is in store, so selling euro on recovery for further weakness is the way to go.
Offers are tipped at 1.1975/85 and more above with some stop above 1.2000. Initial bids are noted at 1.1950-40 with stops touted below last Thursday’s post-ECB low at 1.1930.
Ecp. calendar in the euro countries is very light with France’s non-farm payrolls being the only data due out.
However, do pay attention to a speech by ECB’s Vice President Vitor Constancio who will speak at a conference on monetary policy in non-standard times in Frankfurt at 13:45 GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Sept 2017 4:10GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1984… Euro finally gains respite after falling in last 2 sessions this week. Despite extending decline from last Friday’s 30-month peak at 1.2093 to 1.1927 ahead of European open, short covering lifted price to 1.1973.
The single currency met renewed buying at 1.1960 in Australia and despite initial narrow move, price popped higher to 1.1993 after tripping stops above 1.1980.
Present firmness during Asian lunch session suggests said decline from 1.2093 has made a temp. low yesterday n consolidation with upside bias is ahead of EU President Juncker’s speech at 07:00GMT.
Bids are noted at 1.1960-50 and more below with stops below 1.1925.
Offers are tipped at 1.1990/00 with stops above there.
Germany will release final CPI n wholesale price, the EU will release employment data n industrial production.
AceTraderFx Sept 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Sept 2017 2:50GMT
USD/JPY - 110.63… Dlr stands tall in Tokyo trading after yesterday’s gain to a 2-week high of 110.69 due to broad-based usd’s strength n rising U.S. Treasury yields. Despite subsequent retreat n sideways move in New York afternoon and Australia earlier today.
Renewed buying at 110.41 shortly after Tokyo open sent the pair to intra-day high of 110.73 due partly to renewed weakness in the eur/usd.
As dlr’s near term ascent which began last Friday seems to be losing steam, strong gain is not expected n consolidation is likely to take over as traders await release of key U.S. inflation data later in the day to predict whether a Fed rate hike would be warranted at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
Offers are tipped at 110.70/80 and more above with stops above 111.05.
Bids are noted at 110.45-35 with stops below 110.20, a mixture of bids and stops is touted at 109.90/85.
U.S. will release U.S. inflation data and weekly jobless claims at 12:30GMT, pay attention to Aug annual CPI ex-food & energy, street forecast is looking for an increase of 1.6% vs previous reading of 1.7%.
If actual figures comes in above forecast, then usd will climb, if it misses estimate, then expect a bigger pullback after this week’s spectacular rise.
AceTraderFx Sept 15:: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Sept 2017 3:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.16… Dlr is currently trading near Thursday’s New York low after having spiked lower from 110.25 to to 109.55 on news of another missile launch by North Korea after tripping stops below 109.90.
However, the pair swiftly pared intra-day losses n bounced back to 110.00/10 and then inched higher to 110.24/25 in subdued Asian trading.
Although dlr has taken today’s North Korea missile launch in its stride, as yesterday’s decline from a 1-month peak at 111.04 to 110.07 in New York signals recent upmove has made a temp. top, rallied will be sold on safe-haven yen buying, The UN Security Council will meet at 3 p.m. ET (19:00GMT) later today on the latest North Korea missile test, diplomats said, at the request of the United States and Japan.
Offers are tipped at 110.25/35 and more above with stops above 110.75.
Bids are noted at 109.90/80 and more below with stops building below 109.50.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with retail sales, New York Fed mfg, mfg and industrial output, cap. utilization, bus. inventories and then University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Sept 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Sept 2017 2:20GMT
USD/JPY - 111.20… Dlr maintains a firm undertone in holiday-thinned Asian trading as financial markets are closed in Japan for ‘Respect of the Aged Day’ holiday following a brief but strong retreat from 11.34 to 110.63 in New York morning on soft U.S. retail sales data, however, yen selling soon emerged and lifted price.
The pair opened flat in New Zealand on Mon n edged higher from 110.87/90 to 111.26 due to renewed cross-selling in yen, suggesting range trading with mild upside bias remains.
Bids are noted at 111.00-110.90 with stops below there, more stops are reported below 110.60.
On the upside, offers are topped at 111.25/35 with stops touted above there.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light with NAHB Housing Market index being the only data due out, however, market focus is FOMC rate decision n the accompanied statement on Wednesday.
AceTraderFx Sept 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Sept 2017 02:00GMT
_U_SD/JPY - 111.52… Dlr maintains a biddish tone in Asian trading following yesterday’s gain to an 8-week high of 111.66 in New York afternoon soon as continued gains in the Dow and the S&P 500 to records highs and rising U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 2-year yield hit a near 1-month high of 2.37%) boosted risk sentiment.
Although range trading is expected after Japanese players returned from yesterday’s national holiday and some selling by Japanese exporters to take advantage of recent dlr’s impressive rise (or yen’s weakness) would keep price trading below said New York high in the near term before prospect of marginal gain in Europe.
Bids are noted at 111.30-20 with some stops below 111.10, however, more stops are touted below 110.60.
Offers are tipped at 111.65/75 and more above with stops reported above daily at 112.20.
The Fed will begin its 2-day meeting today and U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with current accounts, building permits, housing starts, import n export prices and Redbook sales.
AceTraderFx Sept 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Sept 2017 02:40GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2014… The single currency stand tall in fairly hectic Asian trading after penetrating yesterday’s 1.2006 top to a fresh 1-week high of 1.2020. Tripping stops above 1.2010, more stops above 1.2030 are now in focus, suggesting buying euro on pullback for short-term trade is still recommended.
However, strong gain ahead of FOMC announcement is not envisaged and be aware of a selloff in post-FOMC esp. if Fed’s “dot-plot” shows more Fed officials are expecting rate rise to be brought forward as well as the no. of rate increase in 2018.
For now, bids have been raised to 1.2000-1.1990 with stops below 1.1980, a mixture of offers n stops is touted at 1.2030/35.
Euro area eco. calendar is very light today with Germany’s PPI being the only data due out.
AceTraderFx Sept 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Sept 2017 2:50GMT
USD/JPY - 112.53… The greenback stand s tall in Asian trading after jumping from 111.12 to a 2-month high of 112.53 in post-FOMC when Fed’s “dot plot” showed 12 FOMC members (up from 8 in June) still want a rate hike in Dec’s meeting. Despite a minor retreat to 112.10 on profit taking ahead of New York close, early birds in Australia bot the buck and price climbed to intra-day high of 112.65 shortly after Tokyo open before coming off on selling by Japanese exporters who took advantage of recent dlr’s strength.
Looks like range trading would be seen ahead of BoJ’s policy announcement between 03:00-04:30GMT, the central is widely expected to stand pat in its rate decision and market focus is BoJ Kuroda’s post-meeting press conference at 06:30GMT.
Bids are noted at 112.20-00 area with stops below 111.80, offers are tipped at 112.65/75 and more above with stops above 113.00.
Buying dlr on dips is the way to go due to rising U.S. Treasury yields with benchmark 10-year yield climbing to fresh 1-month high of 2.289% on Wednesday.
U.S. will release weekly initial jobless claims, Philly Fed survey, monthly home price n leading indicators but market will large show muted reaction to these data after yesterday’s hawkish Fed rate forecast.
AceTraderFx Sept 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Sept 2017 2:40GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1954… Euro maintains a firm undertone in Asia following yesterday’s cable-led rebound to 1.1954 in New York morning. Intra-day decline in usd/yen n usd/chf due to renewed geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsular has led to broad-based usd weakness vs the European currencies in Asia, suggesting choppy consolidation with mild upside bias remains ahead of European open.
Bids are noted at 1.1930-20 with stops below 1.1890, more stops are reported below 1.1860.
Offers are tipped at 1.1975/85 and more above with stops above 1.2000.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, France will release Markit mfg n services PMIs, then the same from Germany and then the EU.
Pay attention to speeches by a great number of ECB officials including ECB President Draghi (please refer to our EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Sept 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Sept 2017 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1931… Euro swung wildly in volatile trading on Mon as despite Sun’s expected election win by Germany’s Merkel, market concern on her difficulty in forging an unstable coalition in order to form a majority govt. together with the first right-wing AfD party to come in the parliament has unsettled the market, casting doubt on how the weak coalition govt. will move forward under present turbulent political climate surrounding the EU.
The single currency opened around 1.1951 n met renewed selling at 1.1960 in NZ, price later hit inra-day low of 1.1897 when German election result was made known.
However, short covering quickly lifted the pair n price then ratcheted higher back to 1.1934/35 shortly after Asian open. Looks like range trading usd be seen until European open n selling the euro on further rise for day trade is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 1.1960/80 area with some stops above 1.2010.
Bids are noted at 1.1920-00 with stops below 1.1890, more stops are touted below 1.1860.
The only data due out is the key German Ifo data esp the business climate at 08:00GMT, although Auh reading expected to come in at 116.0 vs previous reading at 107.90, present political uncertainty in Germany will discourage strong euro buying even if the data turns out to be higher than street forecast.
A no. of senior ECB members will be speaking starting with ECB’s Constancio at 07:00GMT, ECB’s Mersch at 09:15GMT, ECB President Draghi at 13:00GMT n ECB’s Coeure at 14:45GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Sept 2017 02:20GMT
USD/JPY - 111.64… Dlr trades near Mon’s 111.48 low after initial short-covering rebound met with renewed selling at 111.80 just ahead of Tokyo open n price then retreated back to 111.54 as news of deployment of N. Korea fighter to boost its air defence triggered another bout safe-haven yen buying.
Yesterday’s intra-day 3-legged fall from 112.53 (Asia) to 111.48 in New York morning on escalation in the North Korea war of words by North Korea Foreign Minister signals recent upmove has made a top at last Thursday’s 2-month peak at 112.72 and choppy trading with downside bias remains for further weakness towards next chart obj. at 111.12, so selling the usd or rather, buying the yen is the way to go.
Offers are tipped at 111.75/80 and more above with stops above 112.00.
Some bids are noted at 111.55-45 with stops below there, more stops are reported below 111.00.
Although U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (refer to EI page for details), market will be more interested to speeches by 4 Fed officials starting with Cleveland Fed’s Mester (non-voter), then Fed Governor Brainard (voter) at 14:30GMT, pay attention to Fed Chair Yellen at 15:50GMT when she speaks at a luncheon themed “Prospects for Growth : Reassessing the Fundamentals” n lastly Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (voter) at 16:30GMT, so expect a ‘lively’ U.S. session later in the day.
AceTraderFx Sept 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Sept 2017 03:00GMT
USD/JPY - 112.35… The greenback maintains a firm undertone in Asian morning after rising briefly above New York high at 112.48 to 112.54 on Bloomberg TV report of U.S. Trump’s proposed tax cuts (see previous updates for details).
The pair briefly jumped from 112.00 to 112.48 after Fed’s Yellen said in her first post-FOMC speech that the Fed needs gradual rate hikes, however, as dlr has risen broadly earlier in the day, broad-based profit taking quickly set in n price retreated to 112.12 n moved narrowly in subdued New York afternoon.
Looks like range trading would be seen ahead of European open n European traders may react on Yellen’s mildly hawkish comments and Trump’s proposed tax cuts by buying the dlr, so be ready to be long ahead of European open.
Bids are noted at 112.20-00 area with stops below there, more stops are reported below 111.80.
Offers are tipped at 112.50/60 with stops above 112.80.
U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, building permits, durable goods orders and pending homes sales later in the day.
After yesterday’s speeches by a line of Fed officials, we have more to come later today starting with Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-voter) at 13:15GMT, Fed Gov. Brainard (voter) at 18:00GMT and then at 23:00GMT Boston Fed President Rosengren (non-voter).