AceTraderFx Sept 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Sept 2017 03:10GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1739… Euro trades sideways in Asia after staging a rebound from Wednesday’s fresh 1-month low of 1.1718 to 1.1775 on short covering in New York session.
However, as the single currency has pared said intra-day gain and retreated to 1.1734 in Asia today, suggesting recovery is possibly over n euro bears may well test euro’s downside again during European trading as rising U.S. yields is supporting the greenback broadly.
Offers are tipped at 1.1760/70 with stops above 1.1780, more stops are reported above 1.1810.
Initial bids are noted at 1.1720-10 (profit taking) with some stops touted below 1.1700, so selling euro on recovery is the way to go (our daily strategy is holding short entered at 1.1760).
Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence, EU bus. climate, eco. , bus., services n industrial sentiment index n Germany’s prel. CPI.
Pay attention to speeches by ECB member Hansson at 06:30GMT, ECB Chief Economist Praet at 08:00GMT and ECB Board member Lautenschlager at 11:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Sept 2017 02:50GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1780… Euro moves narrowly sideways in subdued Asian trading after a tumultuous week which saw the euro tumbling from 1.1960 (New Zealand Monday) to a 1-month low of 1.1718 due to market jitters following uncertainty on the forming of an uneasy German coalition by Merkel’s govt. together with hawkish Fed n rising U.S. yields on the back of market renewed optimism of Trump trade following his tax proposal.
Well, despite yesterday’s initial weakness to 1.1721 at European open, a bout of broad-based profit taking in the usd quickly lifted the euro n price ratcheted higher to 1.1785 and later to session high of 1.1804 despite upbeat U.S. data, however, price later retreated to 1.1773 at New York midday n moved narrowly in New York afternoon.
Although yesterday’s rally to 1.1804 confirms recent decline has made a temp. bottom at 1.1718, further strong rise above 1.1800 is now envisaged and selling on upmove is still favored.
Offers are tipped at 1.1800/10 and more above with stops above 1.1840. Initial bids are noted at 1.1770-60 and more below with stops below 1.1710.
Pay attention to release of a slew of eco. data starting with Herman retail sales, France’s consumer spending, CPI n PPI, German unemployment, Italy’s CPI n PPIn then EU CPI. ECB’s Nouy will speak at 07:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 03: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Oct 2017 03:10GMT
USD/JPY - 113.06… Dlr popped higher in early Asian trading due to renewed usd strength following yesterday’s gain, price easily penetrated Monday’s 113.06 high to 113.17 as rebound in U.S. yields plus yesterday’s rise in U.S. stocks to record highs boosted risk appetite, suggesting re-test of last Wed’s 2-month peak at 113.26 would be seen after consolidation.
Therefore, buying dlr on dips is the way to go despite Mon’s wild swings in New York session, bids are noted at 113.00/112.90 n more below with stops reported below 112.50.
A mixture of offers n stops is touted at 113.25/30.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
China market holiday, Germany market holiday, New Zealand NZIER confidence, GDT price index, Australia HIA new home sales, building permits, RBA interest rate decision, Japan consumer confidence.
U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices.
U.S. will release Redbook sales n ISM New York bus conditions index later in the day.
AceTraderFx Oct 04: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Oct 2017 03:20GMT
USD/JPY - 112.67… In total contrast to dlr’s firmness in Asia 24 hours ago, the pair remained on the back foot in early Wednesday’s trading as another bout of broad-based usd bashing at Asian open knocked the pair down from 112.90 (AUS) TO 112.51.
Traders cited yesterday’s fall in U.S. Treasury yields in New York on market speculation Fed Governor Jerome Powell (a known dove) will be the next Fed Chair when Yellen term expires in Feb 2017. Today’s news on BLP TV that Trump aides are said to deliver short list for Fed Chair triggered another round of usd selling.
Pay attention to release of U.S. eco. data starting with ADP private payrolls, Sep reading is expected to come in at 125K vs previous month’s figure of 127K due to disruption caused by recent hurricane disruption.
Afterwards, we have Markit services PMI and ISM-non mfg PMI. Last but not least, Fed Yellen will give brief welcome remarks before the Community Banking in the 21st Century Research and Policy Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at 19:15GMT n this is unlikely to affect the FX market.
AceTraderFx Oct 06: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Oct 2017 02:40GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1711… Euro remains on the back foot in Asian trading after intra-day re-test of o/n New York low of 1.1700. Despite yetersday’s initial rebound to 1.1779 in early European trading, sellers quickly emerged n pushed price lower, intra-day decline accelerated after release of ECB minutes, euro later hit session lows of 1.1700 on upbeat U.S. data.
As market focus remains on stops below Wed’s 5-week trough at 1.1697, more stops are reported below Aug’s bottom at 1.1663, so selling euro on recovery is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 1.1720/30 and more above with some stops above 1.1750.
Bids are noted at 1.1700-1.1690 with stops below there, more stops are building below 1.1660.
Ahead of key U.S. NFP, euro area will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany’s industrial orders, France’s current account, Italy’s retail sales. ECB’s de Galhau n Nowotny will both be speaking at an event in Vienna at 13:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 09: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Oct 2017 02:20GMT
USD/JPY - 112.62… Dlr opened relatively flat in New Zealand but then fell below Friday’s 112.61 low (New York) to 112.33 in Australian morning on renewed safe-haven yen buying in reaction to comments by U.S.
Trump on Sunday said “only one thing will work” in dealing with North Korea after previous administration had talked to Pyongyang without results. Reaction by Rep. Senator Corker (see previous headline) suggested Trump meant going to war.
However, dlr has pared initial loss n edged higher to 112.65 on lack of follow-through selling due to relatively thin market condition as Japanese markets are closed for Health-Sports Day holiday.
Although one can expect more active trading in European morning, trading may slow later in the day as markets in the U.S. n Canada are both closed for Columbus Day and Thanksgiving Day holiday respectively.
Anyway, as Friday’s intra-day selloff from a 2-1/2 month peak of 113.44 to 112.61 in post-NFP New York on renewed North Korea tension, selling dlr (buying the yen) on recovery is recommended for correction to occur.
Order board is fairly thin with offers tipped at 112.75/85 and more above with stops above 113.00.
Bids are noted at 112.35-25 with stops touted below 112.20
AceTraderFx Oct 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Oct 2017 02:20GMT
USD/JPY - 112.63… Despite yeterday’s quiet move in Asia due to market holiday in Japan, the pair sprung to life and briefly jumped to intra-day high of 112.83 on dovish comments by BoJ Governor Kuroda (he actually said nothing new), price quickly retreat due to renewed broad-based usd’s weakness.
Looks like choppy sideways swings would continue but as dlr’s decline from 113.44 (Friday) to 112.33 initially in Australia yesterday signals recent upmove has made a temp. top there, consolidation with downside bias is seen.
Offers are tipped at 112.80/00 area with some stops above there.
Initial bids are noted at 112.505-50 and more below with fairly large stops touted below 112.20.
Although U.S. markets will re-open later today after Mon’s Columbus Day holiday, U.S. eco. calendar is very light with Redbook retail sales being the only data due out. Pay some attention to speech by Minneapolis Fed President Kashari at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Oct 2017 03:20GMT
USD/JPY - 112.47… Dlr traded in volatile fashion in ‘hectic’ Asian morning session. Although price rallied in New York morning to 112.46 at New York close on rebound in U.S.
Treasury yields, price retreated to 112.23 shortly after Tokyo open on broad-based usd’s weakness, however, the pair quickly rebounded as the greenback erased initial gain vs G7 currencies n this helped price climb to intra-day high of 112.59.
As price has maintained a steady to firm undertone at Tokyo lunch break, suggesting range trading with upside bias would be seen in European morning. In addition, traders are awaiting release of Fed minutes of last FOMC meeting which may reveal more hawkish info that a rate hike will highly be likely in Dec, therefore, dlr may trade with a biddish tone for rest of the day.
Bids are noted at 112.40-30 and more below with stops reported below 111.90.
Some offers are tipped at 112.60/70 with stops touted above 112.85.
AceTraderFx Oct 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Oct 2017 02:00GMT
USD/JPY - 112.38… Although the pair maintained a relatively steady undertone in post-Fed minutes NY after intra-day rebound from 112.08 to 112.56 in New York due to active cross-selling in the yen, price inched lower in Asia on renewed broad-based usd’s weakness, however, as U.S. Treasury yields remain fairly steady, suggesting choppy sideways swings above this week’s low at 111.99 (Tuesday) would continue.
Offers are tipped at 112.50/60 with stops above there, more selling interest is reported at 112.70/80 with stops above 113.00.
Bid are noted at 112.10-00 with stops reported below there.
Ahead of Fri’s key U.S. CPI data, we have a slew of data later in the day starting with weekly jobless claims, Sep PPI data.
We have 2 Fed Governors, Powell and Brainard who will be speaking later today both at 14:30GMT but at different venues.
AceTraderFx Oct 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Oct 2017 3:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1804… Euro remains on the back foot in Asian trading on Mon. Despite initial recovery from 1.1805 (New Zealand) to 1.1820 in Asia, price fell to 1.1799, traders citing political woes (see early and weekend updates for details) being the reasons for euro’s weakness.
The weekend election win by Austria’s Conservative party which will form coalition govt. with the far-right, the Sunay’s regional loss by Germany Merkel’s party and then deadline for Catalan govt. to clarify independence from Spain are the negative factors weighing on the euro.
So far, euro has held reasonably well despite aforementioned negative political backdrop, one needs to see market reaction at European open.
Offers are tipped at 1.1825/30 and more at 1.1850/55 with stops above 1.1880.
Bids are noted at 1.1700-95 with stops touted below 1.1790.
AceTraderFx Oct 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Oct 2017 2:30GMT
USD/JPY - 112.11… Despite yesterday’s initial fall from Asian 112.08 high to a 2-1/2 week’s trough of 111.65 in early European trading on cross-buying in yen, the pair swung sideways above said intra-day low in New York morning before rallying to 112.28 in late U.S. trade as rebound in U.S. yields in reaction to media report that U.S. Trump may pick John Taylor of ‘Taylor Rule’ fame (a Harvard professor who favours raising interest rates, lifted the greenback across the board.
As dlr’s has pared yesterday’s gain after rising marginally higher to 112.31 in Asia, suggesting a temp. top has been made n range trading is in store, however, as long as U.S. yields stay steady to firm, consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement of recent decline.
Bids are noted at 112.05-111.95 and more below with stops below 111.60.
Offers are tipped at 112.30/40 with stops reported above 112.60.
U.S. will release of eco. data starting with import n export prices, Redbook retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, mfg output n NAHB housing market index. Philly Fed President Harker (voter) will deliver a speech at 17:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Oct 2017 4:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1773… Euro pares yesterday’s losses in Asia n briefly recovered to 1.1781 at Asian open on a bout of broad-based short covering after extending decline from Monday’s 1.1825 high to 1.1737 in New York morning yesterday.
The single currency remained on the back foot in Australia on Tuesday and fell from 1.1800 (AUS) to 1.1776, then 1.1755 in Europe. Price later hit session lows of 1.1737 b4 rebounding to 1.1774 as retreat in U.S. Treasury yields led to broad-based usd’s decline.
Although euro’s intra-day rebound from 1.1737 suggests decline from 1.1880 (last week’s high) and made a temp. low at 1.1737 and range trading is in store, as long as 1.1780/00 res area holds, marginal weakness below 1.1737 is still envisaged before prospect of rebound, so selling euro on recovery is cautiously favoured as political uncertainty in Europe still weighs on the euro.
Offers are tipped at 1.1780/90 with stops above 1.1825.
Bids are noted at 1.1755-50 with stops below 1.1730.
Eco. calendar is very light with EU construction output being the only data due out. However, pay attention to speeches by a line of ECB officials starting with ECB President Draghi will make an opening speech at ECB Conference “Structural
reforms in the euro area” in Frankfurt at 08:10GMT, ECB Chief Economist Praet will speak at 11:45GMT in Frankfurt, ECB Supervisor Nouy will speak in Basel at 12:00GMT n ECB Board member Coeure will speak in Frankfurt at 14:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Oct 2017 2:50GMT
USD/JPY - 103.01… Dlr maintains a biddish done in choppy Asian trading after yesterday’s rally from 112.14 to a 1-week high of 113.05 in New York on the back of rising U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year yields climbed from 2.998% to 2.3519%).
Although price extended Wed’s sharp gain to 113.10 in Australia, intra-day renewed usd’s weakness quickly sent dlr lower to 112.88 shortly after Asian open, suggesting upmove from Monday’s 2-1/2 week trough at 111.65 has possibly made a temp. top and range trading is likely to be in store.
Bids are noted at 112.80-70 with stops below 112.50, offers are tipped at 113.30/40 with stops reported above October’s peak at 113.44.
U.S. will release weekly initial jobless claims, Philly Fed survey and finally leading indicator.
Also Kansas City Fed President George (non-voter will speak at 13:30GMT followed later by Cleveland Fed Mester (non-voter) at 18:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Oct 2017 3:20GMT
USD/JPY - 113.19… Despite trading in relative stable to firm manner in early Asian morning, the greenback ‘jumped’ across the board on news headline '“U.S. Senate passes budget blueprint to Trump tax reform”, market interpreted this as paving the way for Trump’s tax cut package by the Republican without support from the Democrats, U.S. Treasury yields immediately rose (benchmark 10-year rallied from 2.316 to 2.359%) and this sent the pair rallying 112.74 to as high as 113.31.
As long as U.S. yields are on the rise, dlr will head higher on this, so trading the buck from long side is therefore recommended n European traders will most likely do the same when they arrive in reaction to this U.S. tax reform news.
Bids are noted at 113.05-112.95 and more below with some stops below 112.70.
Offers are tipped at 113.30/40 with stops touted above 113.50.
BoJ Gov. Kuroda will deliver a speech at 06:35GMT at an annual conference in Tokyo.
U.S. will release existing home sales and later at 18:00GMT, Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-voter) will speak in New York and last but not least, Fed chair Yellen will make a very late speech at 23:30GMT in Washington at a dinner conference.
AceTraderFx Oct 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Oct 2017 4:00GMT
USD/JPY - 114.16… Dollar maintains a biddish tone in Asian trading following yesterday’s erratic rise from 113.34 to 114.07 on broad-based usd’s strength triggered by intra-day selloff in eur/usd.
The pair met renewed buying at 113.97 in Australia n climbed to a fresh 3-1/2 month high of 114.27, however, price then eased ahead of Tokyo lunch break on lack of follow-through buying. Looks like range trading is seen until European open and present firm U.S. yields (benchmark 10-year is currently near Wed’s 7-month high of 2.4754%) should provide support for the buck. Therefore, buying on dips is favoured.
Bids are noted at 114.00-113.90 with stops below 113.60-55.
Offers are tipped at 114.30/40 with stops above 114.50.
Pay attention to release of key U.S. prel. Q3 GDP at 12:30GMT together with PCE. Then University of Michigan consumer confidence at 14:00GMT.
If GDP and PCE beat forecasts, then expect another bout of buying for the usd.
AceTraderFx Oct 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Oct 2017 3:00GMT
USD/JPY - 113.68… Dlr remains on the back foot in fairly subdued Asian trading after falling from Fri’s fresh 3-1/2 month peak of 114.45 on the back of robust U.S. GDP as well as rising U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year yields climbed to fresh 7-month high of 2.4774%), however, the greenback fell broadly in New York morning on Bloomberg news that Trump is leaning towards current Fed Governor Powell (who is seen by market to follow the foot steps of Fed chair Yellen) as the next Fed chief (however, he hasn’t made up his mind) and U.S. yields also retreated sharply on the BLP report.
Despite trading narrowly in New Zealand and Australia earlier on Monday, further weakness in U.S. yields (10-year is currently at 2.4028%) pressure dlr to 113.63, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains for a much-needed correction towards 113.40-30.
Offers are tipped at 113.85/95 and more above 114.00 with stops reported above 114.50.
Initial bids are noted at 113.50-40 and more below with stops below 113.20.
The BOJ starts its 2-day monetary policy meeting today. U.S. will release Sep personal consumption expenditure (PCE), personal spending, personal income and then Dallas Fed mfg business index.
AceTraderFx Oct 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Oct 2017 02:10GMT
USD/JPY - 113.13… Dlr remained on the back foot in heavy trading on Monday after getting hit by a triple whammy of news and events which led to falling U.S. yields n brad-based usd’s weakness in New York session.
The pair staged a short-covering rebound from 113.53 (Asia) to 113.76 in Europe but later tumbled in New York to 113.38 in the morning on news of indictment of Trump’s previous campaign manager Manafort and his associates, then media report reiterated current Fed Governor Powell is most likely to be Turmp’s choice to be the next Fed chair, last but not least, Trump’s tax reform (corp. tax cut to 20%) is reported to be phased-in over a period of 4 year later knocked price to session lows of 113.03.
The pair came under renewed selling pressure ahead of Tokyo open n briefly fell to 112.98 after hitting small stops below 113.00 but dlr quickly bounced on buying by Japanese names (importers).
Looks like range trading is in store ahead of BoJ’s announcement of its monetary policy decision around 03:30-04:30GMT and then BOJ Governor’s post-BOJ press conference at 06:30GMT.
Bids are noted at 113.00 and more below with stops below 112.65.
Offers are tipped at 113.30/40 with stops reported above 113.80.
U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, CaseShiller home prices, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Nov 01: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Nov 2017[/B] [I]04:00GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1630… Euro remained on the back foot in Asian trading after yesterday’s marginal gain above Monday’s 1.1658 high to 1.1661 in New York morning n repeated news of release of U.S. House tax bill (delayed until Thursday) led to broad-based usd’s strength, suggesting correction from 1.1575 (Friday) has ended there, so selling euro on recovery is therefore recommended.
Offers are tipped at 1.1645/55 and more above with stops above 1.1670.
Some bids are touted at 1.1625-15 with stops below 1.1600, more stops are building below 1.1570.
No eco. data is release from the euro area countries as financial markets in many countries are closed for All Saints Day holiday.
AceTraderFx Nov 02: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Nov 2017 03:20GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1672… Despite swinging broadly sideways inside a fairly tight-range in directionless Wednesday’s session, the euro jumped shortly after Asian open due to intra-day broad-based usd’s weakness (see previous yen’s update for plausible reason for this).
Price penetrated yesterday’s 1.165 high and then Tuesday’s 1.1661 top to 1.1672 after tripping some stops along the way, however, price steadily eased ahead of Tokyo lunch break on lack of follow-through buying.
Although this week’s erratic rise and choppy sideways swings suggests further volatile consolidation above last Friday’s 3-month trough at 1.1575 would continue until release of Friday’s key U.S. jobs data, unless price can close above 1.1670 (previous sup, now res), then another decline may ensue later in the day but we have to wait for European traders’ reaction to media report of current Fed Gov. who is tipped to take the helm of the Fed when Yellen ends her term on Feburary 01, 2018.
Bids are noted at 1.1640-30 and more below with stops below 1.1600.
Offers are tipped at 1.1670/80 and more above with stops above 1.1700.
Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Italy’s Markit mfg PMI, then the same from France and Germany, German unemployment and lastly EU Markit mfg PMI.
AceTraderFx Nov 03: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Nov 2017 02:20GMT
USD/JPY - 113.94… Dlr trades relatively narrowly but with a soft bias in subdued Asian morning as Japanese financial markets are closed for Culture Day holiday.
Despite swung wildly in hectic Thursday trading, the pair ended the day going nowhere. Price recovered from Asian 113.74 low to 114.21 in New York before tanking to 113.54 after U.S. tax reform plan was released in New York morning, however, price bounced back to 114.17 on broad-based recovery in the buck.
Sideways trading is expected as traders are keeping their powder dry for the final but most important eco. data for the week, the famous or infamous U.S. jobs report.
Market is looking for a blockbuster number of 315k increase in non-farm payroll increase vs last month’s reading of -33K due to hurricane disruption, so if the actual number comes in as per forecast plus a decent monthly wage growth of 0.2% or higher, the buck will gain vs its major peers, if the number falls short of expectation, then beware of a broad-based usd bashing ahead of the weekend.
Offers are tipped at 114.15/25 with stops above 114.50.
Bids are noted at 113.70-60 with stops below 113.50, more stops are reported below 112.90.
U.S. will release jobs data, wage growth, trade balance all at 12:30GMT, then factory orders, durable goods orders, ISM non-mfg PMI, Markit services PMI. Minneapolis Fed President (voter) will speak at 16:15GMT.