WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
03 Mar 2014 00:47GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
101.76
55 HR EMA
101.95
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Oversold
13 HR RSI
30
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
102.83 - Feb 21 high
102.30 - Fri’s high
101.72 - Thur’s low (now res)
Support
101.27 - Intra-day low
100.76 - Feb 04 low
100.19 - 61.8% r of 96.94-105.45
. USD/JPY - 101.37.… Although the greenback traded sideways initially last
Mon, price weakened to 102.01 on Tue b4 staging a rebound to 102.61 Wed. Renewed
selling there on risk aversion pressured the pair lower to 101.55 on Fri, then
to 101.27 in Australia today due heightened political tension in Ukraine.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, intra-day break of key sup at 101.38
confirms the correction fm Feb’s 10-week low at 100.76 has ended at 102.83 (Feb
21) n as price is trading below 21h n 55h EMAs, consolidation with downside bias
remains for erratic decline fm Jan’s 5-year peak at 105.45 to resume n yield re-
test of aforesaid low, break wud retain bearishness for further weakness twds
100.19, being the ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r of the rise fm 96.94 to 105.45. However, as
hourly oscillators wud be in o/sold territory on such move, sharp fall below
there is unlikely to be seen n psychological sup at 100.00 shud hold n yield strg
rebound later this week.
. Today, in view of abv analysis n continued political tensions in Ukraine,
selling on recovery is the way to go. Only a daily close abv 102.30 wud abort
bearish scenario n risk gain twds 102.61/68 but 102.83 shud hold initially.
