[B]Market Review[/B] - 06/03/2014 [I]20:39GMT[/I]
[B]Euro rallies to a fresh two-month peak after ECB raises inflation expectation[/B]
The single currency rallied to a fresh two-month peak at 1.3873 versus U.S. dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank refrained from tightening monetary policy, and slightly upgraded its forecast for growth this year.
During the day, although euro traded sideways below Wednesday’s high of 1.3749 in Asia and briefly dropped to 1.3722 in European morning, price rebounded after data showed German factory orders came in better-than-expected in January. Later, euro moved in a volatile manner shortly after the release of ECB’s rate decision but eventually rallied to a fresh two-month peak at 1.3873 in New York as ECB President Mario Draghi confirmed the latest economic data indicating that ‘the moderate economic recovery in the euro zone is proceeding.’
ECB President Mario Draghi confirmed that the bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the latest economic data indicating that ‘the moderate economic recovery in the euro zone is proceeding.’ The central bank revised its forecast for economic growth in 2014 to 1.2% from 1.1% in December. The bank revised down its inflation forecast for this year to 1.0% from 1.1% in December. The bank expects inflation to pick up to 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, remaining below the bank’s target of just under 2%. Draghi reiterated the ECB’s forward guidance on rates and said that interest rates will remain at their present levels, or lower for an extended period. The ECB remains determined to maintain the high degree on accommodating monetary policy for as long as needed, and will take further actions as it sees fit.
Earlier, report showed German factory orders were up 1.2 percent over December, when adjusted for price, calendar and seasonal factors. The office also said it revised the previous month’s decline of 0.5 percent to a decline of only 0.2 percent.
Cable fluctuated wildly on Thursday, as despite a brief rise above Wednesday’s high of 1.6742 to 1.6753 after the Bank of England kept monetary policy unchanged in a widely anticipated decision, active cross-selling in sterling versus euro knocked price down to 1.6686 in New York morning. Later, cable rallied to session high at 1.6778 in New York afternoon before retreating to 1.6734 near New York closing.
The Bank of England voted to leave U.K. interest rates unchanged at their record low of 0.5%, and also left its quantitative easing program steady at 375 billion pounds.
Active cross-selling in Japanese yen due to increased risk appetite continued to lift usd/jpy pair higher on Thursday. Dollar rose from Australian low at 102.27 to 102.81 in European morning and then further to a fresh one-month peak at 103.17 in New York morning before easing due to some profit-taking.
On the data front, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 26,000 to 323,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 349,000.
[B]Data to be release on Friday: [/B]
Japan leading index, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, France trade balance, Italy PPI, Germany industrial production, Canada unemployment rate, labor productivity, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, trade balance, and avg. hourly earnings.