DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Dec 2014 00:00GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.9862
55 HR EMA
0.9839
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
65
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of MT uptrend
Resistance
1.0000 - Psychological lvl
0.9972 - 2012 peak
0.9924 - 80.9% proj. 0.9360-0.9818 fm 0.9554
Support
0.9805 - Mon’s low
0.9785 - Last Fri’s low
0.9722 - Last Thur’s low
. USD/CHF - 0.9876 … Although the greenback remained under pressure initially y’day n weakened to session low at 0.9826 in early European morning, price pared its losses n gained ahead of NY open. Intra-day rise accelerated n the pair rose to fresh 2-year peak at 0.9886 on upbeat U.S. GDP data.
. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr’s aforesaid resumption of MT uptrend fm 2014 near 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 (Mar) to 0.9886 signals further gain to 0.9924 (being 80.9% projection of rise fm 0.9360 to 0.9818 measured fm 0.9554) wud be seen after initial consolidation. Abv 0.9924 wud extend twds 2012 peak at 0.9972, however, as daily oscillators’ readings wud display prominent ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, sharp gain beyond there is unlikely to be seen this week n reckon psychological res at 1.0000 shud remain intact n yield a much-needed correction later. On the downside, only below 0.9785 (Mon’s low) wud indicate a temp. top has been made n risk retracement twds 0.9722.
. Today, as current price is trading abv 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting buying dlr on dips is still the way to go. Only below 0.9805 wud abort intra-day bullishness n risk stronger weakness twds 0.9785.
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 05 Jan 2015 00:32GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
1.0009
55 HR EMA
0.9970
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
70
14 HR DMI
ve+
Daily Analysis
Choppy conoslidation with mild upside bias
Resistance
1.0235 - 1.618 times ext. of 0.9554-0.9848 fm 0.8759
1.0165 - Intra-day high (AUS)
1.0110 - Chart res
Support
0.9920 - Dec 30 high, now sup
0.9868 - Tue’s low
0.9844 - Mon’s low
. USD/CHF - 1.0042 … The greenback continued its recent winning streak n penetrated key res at 0.9972 (2012 high) at the 1st trading day of 2015 in NY due to dlr’s broad-based rally, price rallied abv the ‘psychological’ res at 1.0000 to 1.0019 at NY close, then briefly but sharply to 1.0165 in AUS today.
. Let’s look at the bigger picture 1st, dlr’s breach of 0.9972 res (this was the reaction high of the LT upmove fm 2011 record low at 0.7072) confirms aforesaid uptrend has finally resumed n price is en route to 1.0331 this week, being 50% proj. of 0.7072-0.9972 measured fm 0.8698, however, as daily technical indicators may display ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, reckon 1.0490 (61.8% proj.) wud cap upside in the 1st half of Jan. Therefore, buying dlr on dips for subsequent gain to abovementioned upside targets is recommended n only a daily close below 0.9920 (prev. res, now sup) wud be the 1st signal a temporary top is in place n risk stronger correction twd 0.8799 (Dec 25 low on Reuters).
. Today, as dlr’s current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying the buck on dips is favoured n only below 0.9961 wud dampen bullisness, risk possible retracement twd 0.9920.
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Jan 2015 00:29GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8766
55 HR EMA
0.8728
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
57
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9000 - Psychological
0.8903 - 70.7% r of 0.9131-0.8352
0.8838 - Last Tue’s high
Support
0.8751 - Last Thur’s high
0.8682 - Last Fri’s low
0.8500 - Wed’s low
. USD/CHF - 0.8783… Dlr went through ‘roller-coaster’ week last week. Price rebounded to 0.8838 on Tue due to renewed cross-buying of chf, however, decline in eur/usd pressured the pair to 0.8500 Wed b4 rising again due to resumption of downtrend in eur/usd, dlr later climbed back to 0.8820 on Fri.
. Looking at the bigger picture, despite dlr’s free fall fm Jan’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.0240 to a 4-month trough of 0.7360 after SNB surprised the market by unpegging the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce has left a spike bottom formation on the daily chart, suggesting a major low has been formed. As mentioned in recent updates, although market may test dlr’s downside, as long as 0.8326 sup holds, choppy sideways trading is seen b4 prospect of another rise. A weekly close abv 0.9131 (prev. reaction high) wud add credence to abv view n yield further gain to 0.9396 (being 70.7% r of 1.0240-0.7360). On the downside, only below 0.8326 wud dampen bullish view on dlr n may risk weakness twd 0.8000.
. Today, despite euro’s selloff to fresh 11-year low ahead of Asian open, decline in eur/chf limited dlr’s gain to 0.8824, suggesting choppy sideways move is in store. We’re standing aside initially b4 giving a recommendation.
[IDAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK[/B]
Last Update At [B]03 Feb 2015[/B] [I] 00:05GMT[/I]
[B]Trend Daily Chart [/B]
Down
[B]Daily Indicators[/B]
Turning up
[B]21 HR EMA[/B]
0.9274
[B]55 HR EMA[/B]
0.9237
[B]Trend Hourly Chart [/B]
Up
[B]Hourly Indicators [/B]
Bearish divergences
[B]13 HR RSI [/B]
51
[B]14 HR DMI[/B]
+ve
[B]Daily Analysis[/B]
Consolidation with neutral bias
[B]Resistance[/B]
0.9475 - 80.9% proj. of 0.8500-0.9167 fm 0.8935
0.9396 - 70.7% r of 1.0240-.0.7360
0.9347 - Y’day’s high
[B]Support[/B]
0.9203 - Y’day’s low
0.9167 - Last Tue’s high (now sup)
0.9092 - Last Wed’s high (now sup)
. [B]USD/CHF[/B] - 0.9273… Although the greenback opened higher to 0.9275 in NZ y’day on w/end newspaper report SNB was targeting unofficial 1.05-1.10 eur/chf band. Price retreated to 0.9203 b4 rising again to a 2-week top of 0.9347 after another increase in SNB sight deposits, price later retreated to 0.9234 in NY.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although price has retreated after Mon’s rally abv last Fri’s high at 0.9289 to 0.9347 n 1-2 days of consolidation is envisaged, as aforesaid rise signals the upmove fm Jan’s 40-month trough at 0.7360 has resumed, upside bias remains. Abv 0.9347 wud retain bullishness for further gain twd 0.9396/00 (70.7% r of the entire fall fm 1.0240-0.7360 n psychological res respectively), however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon price wud hold well below 0.9475 (80.9% projection of 0.8500-0.9167 measured fm 0.8935) this week n yield correction. On the downside, only below 0.91189 (38.2% r of 0.8935-0.9346) signals temporary top is made, n yield stronger retracement twd 0.9167 (previous res, now sup).
. Today, we’re standing ahead initially n wud buy dlr on dips as only below 0.9167-70 wud risk stronger retracement of recent upmove to 0.9116/20.
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11/02/2015 00:04 GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
0.9258
55 HR EMA
0.9251
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
57
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9382 - 50% proj. of 0.8935-0.9347 fm 0.9176
0.9347 - Last Mon’s high
0.9289 - Last Fri’s high
Support
0.9176 - Last Fri’s low low
0.9167 - Jan 27 high (now sup)
0.9116 - Jan 29 Asian high
. USD/CHF - 0.9267… Although the greenback met selling interest at 0.9252 at Asian open Tue n fell to session low at 0.9215 at European open, price pared intra-day loss n climbed back to day’s high at 0.9278 ahead of NY open. However, price moved narrowly in NY session on lack of follow-through buying.
. The broad outlook remains the same as prev. updates, where despite dlr’s free fall fm Jan’s fresh 2-1/2 yr peak of 1.0240 to a 4-month trough of 0.7360 after SNB dropped the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce had left a spike bottom formation on the daily chart, suggesting a major low is in place. Despite dlr’s retreat fm last Mon’s 0.9347, as long as 0.9167 (prev. res) holds, outlook remains supportive for further headway to 0.9446, being 61.8% projection of the entire rise fm 0.7360-0.9131 measured fm 0.8352, however, as hourly indicators wud display ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, reckon 0.9673 (50% proj. of 0.9352-0.9347 fm 0.9176) wud cap upside. Only a daily close below 0.9167 wud signal temporary top is made n risk retracement to 0.9116 but 0.8935 shud hold.
. Today, as long as 0.9176 (reaction low fm 0.9347) holds, buying dlr on dips is favoured but abv 0.9313 needed to yield subsequent gain twd 0.9347
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 23 Feb 2015 00:53GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
0.9435
55 HR EMA
0.9440
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
54
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
0.9576 - 61.8% proj. of 0.8600-0.9247 fm 0.9176
0.9554 - Prev. hourly sup, now res
0.9535 - Last Fri’s high
Support
0.9374 - Last Fri’s ow
0.9314 - Last Thur’s low
0.9292 - Last Wed’s low
. USD/CHF - 0.9410 … U.S. dollar ratcheted higher against Swiss franc fm last Mon’s low at 0.9284 n price rose to fresh one-month high at 0.9535 on Fri due to active cross selling in chf (eur/chf rose fm 1.0664 to 1.0812), however, profit-taking knocked price lower to 0.9372 in late NY on Fri.
. The broad outlook remains the same as recent updates. Despite dlr’s free fall fm Jan’s fresh 2-1/2 yr peak of 1.0240 to a 4-month trough of 0.7360 after SNB dropped the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce had left a spike bottom formation on the daily chart. Although euro’s strg retreat from last Fri’s fresh 1-month high at 0.9535 suggests the erratic upmove fm Jan’s 4-month low at 0.7360 has formed a temp. top n choppy consolidation wud be seen for a retrace to 0.9292 n possibly twds 0.9176 this week, however, reckon 0.9140 (being 38.2% r of intermediate rise fm 0.8500) shud contain downside n yield rebound. Abv 0.9535 wud bring further gain twds 0.9576 (61.8% proj. of 0.8600-0.9247 fm 0.9176) but 0.9673 (50% projection of 0.9352-0.9347 fm 0.9176) wud cap upside.
. Today, in view of near term bearish scenario on dlr, selling on recovery is favoured. Only abv 0.9500 wud revive bullishness for re-test of 0.9535.
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01/03/2015 23:53 GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9519
55 HR EMA
0.9509
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
60
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent upmove
Resistance
0.9673 - 50% proj. of 0.8352-0.9347 fm 0.9176
0.9596 - 61.8% proj. of 0.9176-0.9535 fm 0.9374
0.9547 - Last Thur’s high
Support
0.9501 - Hourly chart
0.9449 - Last Thur’s low
0.9374 - Feb 20 low
. USD/CHF - 0.9545… Dlr met renewed buying right at the start of last week due to renewed cross-selling in chf, price climbed to 0.9527 Mon n despite intra-day price swings in next 2 sessions, dlr rallied fm 0.9449 to 0.9547 on Thur. Price retreated to 0.9450 on cross-buying in chf b4 rising to 0.9546 Fri.
. Looking at the bigger picture, as mentioned in recent updates, despite a free fall fm Jan’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.0240 to a 40-month trough of 0.7360 after SNB dropped the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce had left a ‘spike bottom’ reversal on the daily chart. Last week’s rally abv previous top at 0.9535 confirms the erratic upmove fm Jan’s 4-month low at 0.7360 has once again resumed n shud head to 0.9596, this is 61.8% proj. of 0.9176-0.9535 fm 0.9374, however, reckon 0.9673 (50% projection of 0.9352-0.9347 fm 0.9176) wud cap upside. Therefore, buying dlr on dips in anticipation of gain to above mentioned targets is the way to go n only below last week’s 0.9374 low signals a temporary top is in place n risks stronger retracement twd 0.9374.
. Today, intra-day eur/usd’s weakness suggests buying dlr again on dips is the way to go n only below 0.9449/50 sup aborts present bullishness.
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 06/03/2015 00:29 GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9709
55 HR EMA
0.9664
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
73
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal gain b4 correction
Resistance
0.9837 - 2.236 ext. of 0.9374-0.9547 fm 0.9450
0.9791 - 61.8% proj. of 0.8352-0.9347 fm 0.9176
0.9750 - Y’day’s high
Support
0.9680 - Wed’s high
0.9650 - Y’day’s NY low
0.9593 - Wed’s low
. USD/CHF - 0.9739… The pair is trading 100 points higher fm its rate 24hour ago as price moved in exact opposite direction to eur/usd due to the steady gain in eur/chf cross. Despite a retreat fm 0.9697 (Europe) to 0.9650 at NY open y’day, renewed weakness in eur/usd sent dlr climbing to 6-week high of 0.9749.
. Looking at the bigger picture 1st, as mentioned in recent updates, despite early free fall fm Jan’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.0240 to a 40-month low of 0.7360 after SNB dropped the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce had left a ‘spike bottom’ reversal pattern on the daily chart. Wed’s resumption of said erratic upmove fm Jan’s 4-month low at 0.7360 suggests price wud head twd 0.9791, this is 61.8% projection of 0.8352-0.9347 measured fm 0.9176. Having said that, as the hourly indicators wud display ‘bearish divergences’ on such rise, suggesting strg gain abv there wud not be seen n downside risk has increased for a much-needed correction to take place. Below 0.9550 wud be the 1st signal a temp. top is in place n yield retracement to 0.9593, then 0.9547.
. Today, as current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying dlr on dips again is the way to go but 0.9830/40 shud cap upside.
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 13 Mar 2015 00:20GMT
Trend Daily Chart Daily
Down
Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.0041
55 HR EMA
1.0022
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
48
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.0170 - 50% proj. of 0.7360-0.9347 fm 0.9176
1.0129 - Y’day’s high
1.0077 - Y’day’s NY high
Support
0.9980 - Y’day’s low
0.9928 - 100% proj. of 1.0129-0.9980 fm 1.0077
0.9874 - Mar 08 high (now sup)
. USD/CHF - 1.0036… The pair continued its recent strg ascent on Thur n climbed to a fresh 2-month high at 1.0129, however, intra-day strg rally in eur/usd led to broad-based selloff in dlr in Europe, price tumbled to 0.9995 n then fell briefly 0.9980 on weak U.S. data b4 rebounding to 1.0077.
. On the bigger picture, as mentioned earlier, dlr’s spike bottom(reversal) formation at Jan’s 40-month trough at 0.7360 following SNB’s abandoning of the 1.20 franc cap n subsequent rally confirms correction fm Jan’s 4-year peak at 1.0240 has ended there n price wud ratchet higher back to this key res lvl later this month or Apr, current rising daily technical indicators add credence to this view. This month, dlr’s rally abv psychological res at 1.0000 suggests further gain to 1.0170 (50% proj. of 0.7360-0.9347 fm 0.9176) n then re-test of 1.0240 wud be seen. Therefore, buying dlr on dips is the way to go n only a daily close below 0.9750 (prev. res, now sup) wud be signal temporary top is made, risk retracement twd 0.9650, however, sup 0.9593 shud remain intact.
. Today, as dlr has retreated after y’day’s rebound fm 0.9980 to 1.0077 in NY, consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 0.9980 yields 0.9928/30.
_chf.gif[/IMG] DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 25/03/2015 01:03 GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
0.9602
55 HR EMA
0.9671
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
42
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
0.9695 - Y’day’s high
0.9630 - Last Wed’s low (now res)
0.9604 - Y’day’s NY high
Support
0.9536 - Y’day’s low
0.9485 - Equality of 1.0129-0.9630 fm 0.9984
0.9450 - 26 Feb low
. USD/CHF - 0.9590… Although dlr rebounded fm Mon’s low at 0.9641 (NY) to 0.9695 in Asia y’day, active selling in eur/chf cross n weakness in the green back pressured price to fresh a 3-1/2 week low at 0.9536 at NY open. Later, dlr recovered to 0.9604 n then moved in a choppy fashion for rest of NY session.
. Looking at the daily chart, y’day’s selloff n daily close below last Wed’s post-FOMC low at 0.9630 confirms dlr’s cross-inspired rally fm Jan’s 40-month trough at 0.7360 has indeed made a top at 1.0129 (Mar 12) n consolidation
with downside bias is seen for a retracement to 0.9485, being 100% projection of 1.0129-0.9630 measured fm 0.9984. Below wud extend further weakness to 0.9448/50 (being 26 Feb low n 38.2% r of the rise fm 0.8352 to 1.0129 respectively) shud remain intact this week n yield correction later. On the upside, only a move back abv y’day’s high at 0.9695 wud indicate a temporary low has been made n turn outlook bullish for further gain twds 0.9729 (prev. sup, now res).
. Today, as broad-based rebound in the greenback in NY session has lifted price fm 0.9536 to 0.9604, suggesting initial consolidation wud be seen but res at 0.9695 shud hold n yield another fall later.
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 31 Mar 2015 00:18GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
0.9666
55 HR EMA
0.9643
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
58
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue
Resistance
0.9796 - Last Mon’s Asian high
0.9729 - Mar 20 low (now res)
0.9693 - Last Fri’s high
Support
0.9605 - Y’day’s low
0.9558 - Last Fri’s low
0.9536 - Last Tue’s low
. USD/CHF - … Although the greenback traded sideways in Asia n briefly edged lower to 0.9605 in European morning, price swiftly rose to 0.9674 b4 retreating. However, dlr found renewed buying at 0.9620 in NY morning n gained to session high at 0.9689, helped by upbeat U.S. pending home sales data.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, dollar’s strg rebound fm last wk’s low at 0.9491 (Thur) to 0.9693 last Fri suggests the early 3-legged decline fm Mar’s 2-month peak at 1.0129 has made a temporary low there n choppy trading with upside bias is seen. Abv 0.9693 wud extend gain twd 0.9729 (prev. sup, now res), then twds 0.9738, being the 50% r of fall fm 0.9984-0.9491, however, strg rise abv there is unlikely to be seen this week n reckon res 0.9796 wud remain intact n yield retreat later. On the downside, only below 0.9491 wud revive bearishness for a stronger retrace. of upmove fm Jan’s 40-month trough at 0.7360 twds to 0.9448/50 (26 Feb low n 38.2% r of 0.8352 to 1.0129 resp.).
. Today, as current price is trading abv 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting consolidation with upside bias remains, however, as hourly oscillators wud display bearish divergences on next rise, reckon 0.9729 wud hold on 1st testing.
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Apr 2015 00:44GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.9647
55 HR EMA
0.9625
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
65
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9756 - Last Tue’s high
0.9743 - Last Wed’s high
0.9673 - Tue’s high
Support
0.9598 - Y’day’s low
0.9558 - Tue’s low
0.9536 - Prev. res, now sup
. USD/CHF- 0.9677 … The pair remained under pressure in Asia as decline in dlr/yen led to broad-based decline in the greenback, then rally in cable in European morning led to more dlr’s weakness n knocked price to session low of 0.9598 b4 rebounding in NY. Dlr later rose to 0.9675 after FOMC minutes.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, Tue’s rally abv Mon’s high at 0.9605 strongly suggests recent decline fm Mar’s 2-month peak at 1.0129 has formed a temporary low last Fri at 0.9480 n consolidation with upside bias remains for gain twd 0.9728, being a ‘minimum’ 38.2% retracement of foresaid fall fm 1.0129. Having said that, as the however, as hourly indicators wud display prominent ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, strg gain abv there is unlikely n reckon res at 0.9756 (last week’s high) wud cap upside n yield decline later. On the downside, below y’day’s 0.9558 low any time wud signal said correction fm 0.9480 has ended, then risk wud shift to downside for weakness twd 0.9480.
. Today, as current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying the dlr on dips is favoured, however, reckon 0.9728 may hold on 1st testing. Below 0.9598 wud risk stronger retracement twd 0.9558/63 later.
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Apr 2015 00:44GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.9589
55 HR EMA
0.9600
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
35
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 recent decline resumes
Resistance
0.9670 - Y’day’s European high
0.9627 Y’day’s European morning low
0.9602 - 38.2% r of 0.9719-0.9530
Support
0.9530 - Y’day’s low
0.9480 - 03 Apr low
0.9450 - 38.2% r of 0.8352-1.0129
. USD/CHF - 0.9556… Although the greenback briefly rose to session high at 0.9719 at Asian open, dlr quickly reversed gains n fell to 0.9627 in Europe deu to selling in eur/chf cross. Intra-day decline accelerated in NY morning on downbeat U.S. data, dlr later tumbled to as as low as 0.9530 in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite y’day’s rise to 0.9719, subsequent sell off suggests recent choppy trading inside the established broad range of 0.9863-0.9480 wud continue with downside bias n below daily 0.9480 sup wud confirm decline fm 1.0129 (Mar peak) to correct early rise fm 2015 trough at 0.7360 (Jan) to pressure price to 0.9450 (being a ‘minimum’ 38.2% of the intermediate rise fm 0.8352) n then 0.9240 (50% r) later next week. Therefore, selling dlr on recovery in anticipation of weakness to above mentioned downside targets is recommended. On the upside, only a daily close abv 0.9625 wud ‘prolong’ the volatile trading inside 0.9480-0.9863 range n risk wud shift to upside for another rise twd 0.9719.
. Today, as current price is trading below 21-hr & 55-hr emas, selling dlr on recovery is the way to go as upside shud falter well below 0.9625.
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 29 Apr 2015 00:24GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.9553
55 HR EMA
0.9555
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
51
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 recent decline resumes
Resistance
0.9670 - Last Thur’s European high
0.9627 - Last Thur’s European morning low
0.9599 -Y’day’s high
Support
0.9493 - Mon’s low
0.9480 - 03 Apr low
0.9450 - 38.2% r of 0.8352-1.0129
. USD/CHF - 0.9560… Trading the pair was tricky on Tue as price swung wildly in European & NY session. Despite initial weakness to 0.9536 at European open, buying of eur/chf cross pushed price to 0.9599 b4 tanking to session low of 09504 after soft U.S. data, however, dlr bounced back to 0.9568.
. Looking at daily picture, dlr’s early selloff fm 0.9863 (Apr high) to 0.9494, then 1-tick lower on Mon confirms correction fm Apr’s 0.9480 trough has ended there n consolidation with downside bias remains for early decline fm Mar’s 2-month peak at 1.0129 to resume n yield re-test of 0.9480. Below said sup wud yield stronger retracement of the MT rise fm Jan’s 40-month trough at 0.7360 twd 0.9450, being the ‘minimum’ 38.2% r of intermediate rise fm 0.8352 to 1.0129. Looking ahead, below 0.9450 wud extend marginally, however, anticipated ‘bullish convergences’ on hourly n daily indicators shud keep dlr abv 0.9240 (50% r fm 0.8352) n yield correction next week. On the upside, only abv 0.9625//27 wud suggest a temporary low is made n risk stronger gain twd 0.9719.
. Today, we’re holding a short position for weakness to 0.9315 1st n only abv 0.9599 wud risk stronger retracement of last week’s fall to 0.9625/27.
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 28 May 2015 00:07GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
0.9504
55 HR EMA
0.9489
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
50
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal rise
Resistance
0.9599 - Apr 28 high
0.9561 - 61.8% r of 0.9863-0.9072
0.9545 - Y’day’s high
Support
0.9460 - Tue’s European low
0.9406 - Mon’s low
0.9378 - Last Fri’s Asian high (now sup)
. USD/CHF - 0.9499… The pair also swung wildly in tandem with eur/usd in opposite direction on Wed. Despite hitting a 3-week high of 0.9539 in Australia, intra-day rebound in eur/usd knocked price lower to 0.9468 in Europe b4 rising to session high of 0.9545 in NY but only to retreat back to 0.9483 later.
. The daily outlook on dlr remains similar to our recent updates. Last week’s rally abv previous res at 0.9359 signals early decline fm Mar’s peak at 1.0129 has made a low at 0.9072 (May’s 3-month low) n bullishness remains for further headway to 0.9599/0.9600, this is chart res n 50% r of 1.0129-0.9072 respectively, break there would retain upside bias for subsequent gain to 0.9725 (61.8% r fm 1.0129) early next month. As daily technical are turning up, buying dlr on dips this week in anticipation of upmove to aforesaid targets is favoured n only a daily close below 0.9286 would suggest temporary top is in place, risk stronger pullback to 0.9200/10 b4 rebound.
. Today, as Wed’s 3-week high was accompanied by ‘bearish divergences’ on the hourly indicators, subsequent retreat suggests consolidation with downside bias wud be seen but below 0.9468 needed to extend weakness to 0.9416/20.
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 12 Jul 2015 23:51GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9409
55 HR EMA
0.9432
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
46
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
0.9517 - Last Thur’s high
0.9461 - Last Thur’s NY low
0.9422 - Last Fri’s NY high
Support
0.9330 - Last Fri’s low
0.9290 - 61.8% r of 0.9150-0.9517
0.9244 - Jun 29 low
. USD/CHF - 0.9402… Dlr swung from gain to loss in volatile trading last week. Although initial weakness in euro helped dlr ratchet higher, price rose to a 1-month peak of 0.9517 Thur b4 coming off to 0.9330 in Europe on Fri.
. On the daily picture, although dlr’s erratic rise fm Jun’s 0.9150 trough to 0.9517 last Thur signals re-test of May’s high at 0.9545 is on the cards, subsequent retreat to 0.9330 suggests further consolidation is in store b4 prospect of such a move n a break there would confirm early upmove fm May’s 3-month trough at 0.9072 to retrace MT decline fm 1.0129 (May) has finally resumed, then price would be en route to 0.9600 n then twd 0.9725 later this month, being ‘natural’ 50% r & ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r respectively of aforesaid fall. On the downside, a daily close below Fri’s 0.9330 would dampen abv bullish scenario on dlr, then risk wud shift to the downside for a retracement of the rise fm 0.9150 to 0.9290 (61.8% r), break may extend to 0.9244 but 0.9150 should remain intact.
. Today, initial choppy trading abv said Fri’s 0.9330 low is in store, as long as 0.9461 (prev. sup, now res) holds, downside bias remains, below 0.9361 would bring re-test of 0.9330, then twd 0.9290. Abv 0.9461 may risk 0.9500/05.
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Last Update At [B]14 Jul 2015[/B] [I]23:46 GMT[/I]
Yesterday’s sell-off from Asian 1-month peak at 0.9533
to 0.9403 in NY after downbeat U.S. retail sales
signals recent erratic up-move from 0.9150 (June) has
formed a temp. top and downside bias remains for a
stronger retrace. towards 0.9367 later this week.
Sell on recovery but reckon 0.9330 sup would hold.
Only above 0.9545 (May) aborts and risks 0.9599/00.
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 19 Jul 2015 23:37GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9598
55 HR EMA
0.9568
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
64
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent upmove
Resistance
0.9719 - Apr 23 high
0.9697 - 100% measure. of 0.9150-0.9517 fm 0.9333
0.6950 - 100% proj. of 0.9403-0.9550 fm 0.9503
Support
0.9586 - Last Thur’s high (now sup)
0.9554 - Last Fri’s low
0.9538 - Last Thur’s NY low
. USD/CHF - 0.9615… The pair rallied at the start of last week due to renewed weakness in eur/usd, dlr met renewed buying at 0.9368 n later climbed abv May’s 0.9545 high to a near 3-month peak of 0.9626 at NY close on Fri.
. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr’s break of 0.9545 res confirms the early rise fm May’s 0.9072 low has finally resumed after 1-1/2 months of choppy sideways trading n price is en route to 0.9725, this is the ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r of the recent decline fm 1.0129 (Mar high), abv there would encourage for further headway twd next chart obj. at 0.9863 (Apr high), current rising daily technical indicators add credence to this bullish view. Therefore, buying on dips in anticipation of upmove to abovementioned targets is recommended. On the downside, only a daily close below 0.9503 would signal temporary top has been made, then risk is seen for weakness twd 0.9430 but sup at 0.9330 would remain intact n yield subsequent rebound.
. Today, as dlr has maintained a firm undertone ahead of Asian open n with current price trading abv 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying on dips is recommended, however, ‘bearish divergences’ on hourly indicators would cap price below 0.9719.
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 20 Sep 2015 23:25GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.9644
55 HR EMA
0.9651
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
67
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9825 - Sep’s high (9th)
0.9764 -Last week’s high (Tue)
0.9726 - Last Thur’s high
Support
0.9631 - Last Fri’s Aust. high (now sup)
0.9592 - Last Thur’s low
0.9528 - Last Wed’s 3-wek loow
. USD/CHF - 0.9692… Despite extending early fall to 0.9666 last Mon, dlr rebounded to 0.9764 n swung wildly b4 tanking to 0.9592 on Thur after Fed kept rate unchanged. Price then fell to 0.9528 b4 rising to 0.9705 in NY on Fri.
. Let’s look at the bigger picture 1st, although dlr’s erratic fall fm Aug’s 0.9825 high signals recent strg upmove fm Aug’s bottom at 0.9257 has made a top there, having said that, Fri’s rally fm 0.9528 due to broad-based rebound in the greenback signals said pullback fm 0.9825 has possibly ended n consolidation with upside bias is in store, abv strg res at 0.9763/64 would add credence to this view, then re-test of 0.9825 would follow where a break there would bode well for dlr to head twd major res at 0.9903 (Aug’s peak) later this month. In view of abv analysis, buying dlr on dips this week is recommended n only below 0.9592 would dampen bullish outlook, risk weakness twd 0.9528.
. Today, dlr’s intra-day rally fm 0.9528 to as high as 0.9705 suggests intra-day upside bias remains for further gain after consolidation, however, as hourly indicators’ readings would be in o/bot territory, res at 0.9764 (last week’s high) should hold on 1st testing n yield retreat.
[B]DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK[/B]
Last Update At [B] 25 Nov 2015[/B] [I]00:17GMT[/I]
[B]Trend Daily Chart[/B]
Up
[B]Daily Indicators [/B]
Rising
[B]
21 HR EMA [/B]
1.0170
[B]55 HR EMA[/B]
1.0175
[B]Trend Hourly Chart [/B]
Near term down
[B]Hourly Indicators[/B]
Turning down
[B]13 HR RSI[/B]
47
[B]14 HR DMI[/B]
-ve
[B]Daily Analysis[/B]
Choppy consolidation to continue
[B]Resistance[/B]
1.0262 - 50% proj. of 0.9990-1.0226 fm 1.0144
1.0240 - 2015 high (Jan 14)
1.0226 - Y’day’s 10-mth top
[B]Support[/B]
1.0122 - Last Thur’s low
1.0095 - Nov 13 high (now sup)
1.0044 - Last Mon’s low
. [B] USD/CHF[/B] - 1.0166… Despite hitting a fresh 10-month peak of 1.0226 on Mon, dlr fell due to cross-buying of chf on risk aversion on news of downing of a Russian warplane near Syria, price fell to 1.0144 b4 staging a recovery.
. On the bigger picture, dlr’s resumption of early erratic rise fm 0.9072 (May) to 1.0226 on Mon suggests price would re-test 2015 4-year peak at 1.0240 (Jan) after consolidation, abv would bode well for MT uptrend fm Jan’s 40-month trough at 0.7360 to head to 1.0317 (100% measurement of 0.9477-0.9958 projected fm 0.9836), then later to 1.0456, this is 50% projection of aforesaid rise fm 0.7360-1.0129 measured fm 0.9072. Current rising daily technical indicators suggest buying dlr again on dips is the way to go n only a daily close below 1.0095 (previous res, now sup) would be the 1st signal temporary top is in place n risk stronger correction to 1.0044 but sup at 0.9990/99 should remain intact.
. Today, as long as 1.0194 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for aforesaid fall fm 1.0226 to head twd 1.0122 sup as below needed to bring stronger retracement to 1.0089/95 b4 prospect of a rebound. We’re selling dlr on recovery for one more fall or buy on such move. Abv 1.0226 wud yield 1.0240.
.png)
