AceTraderFx Feb 18: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Trading Discussion Currencies
208

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Feb 2016 03:25GMT

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Dollar is nursing loss during Tokyo lunch session after extending o/n decline to 112.71 as a gap-down open in the Nikkie do to a late retreat in U.S. stocks prompted another wave of broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion, price easily penetrated o/n NY low of 113.14 at Asian open, triggering stops below 113.00.

With the Nikkei index expected to come under pressure in post-lunch session, selling dlr on recovery is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 113.10 n more at 113.30/40 with stops above there.
Initial bids are noted at 112.80-70 with some stops below there.

Pay attention to release to key U.S. inflation data at 13:30GMT. In addition, later today at 15:00GMT, after last week’s testimony by Fed Chair Yellen on Capital Hill, Yellen will deliver Fed’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, she will also answer questions from U.S. lawmakers, so any comments on future rate decision will affect dlr’s movement.

Data to be released on Friday:

Japan all industry activity index, Germany producer price index, U.K. retail sales, public sector net borrowing, CB leading economic index, Eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Canada CPI, core CPI and retail sales.

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209

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Feb 2016[/B] [I]2:15GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr showed muted reaction to release of downbeat Japan's data. Reuters reported growth in Japan's manufacturing activity slowed sharply in February as new export orders contracted at the fastest pace in three years, a worrying sign that overseas demand is deteriorating rapidly as China's economy slows, a preliminary survey showed on Monday.

The Markit/Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.2 in February on a seasonally adjusted basis from a final 52.3 in January.
But it remained above the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the 10th consecutive month.
The sub-index for new export orders fell to a preliminary 47.9 from 53.1 in January, which would indicate the biggest contraction since February 2013 if confirmed in final data.

Exports in January tumbled by the most since the global financial crisis, in a clear indication that financial market turmoil and slowing emerging market economies have eroded demand abroad.

Under pressure from faltering global demand, total new orders from customers at home and overseas also changed direction and contracted, while job creation cooled to a five-month low.

Companies cut selling prices for the third month in a row, and more sharply than in January, likely reflecting both falling commodity prices and sluggish demand.
Japan’s economy contracted more than expected in the fourth quarter due to weak household spending and exports.

While analysts expect a moderate recovery this year, stagnant wages, depressed consumer prices and faltering global growth have raised fresh doubts about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ****tail of stimulus policies aimed at re-energising the economy and quashing years of deflation.

More data to be released.

210

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Feb 2016 02:02GMT 

USD/JPY - ......Breaking news:  In the Parliament Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's comment that the expanding base money alone will not immediately lead to price rises and a heightening of inflation expectations.

-expansion of base money alone won’t immediately push up prices, inflation expectations
-key transmission channel of QQE is to push down real interest rates
-it’s true inflation expectations have been somewhat weak recently
-in long run, inflation expectations are rising
-must continue QQE with negative rates until inflation is sustainably above 2 pct

While the Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said he expects Group of 20 finance ministers to debate on how to cooperate in response to the recent turmoil in global financial markets, and Japan was not engaged in competitive currency devaluation and that major economies share an understanding that competitive currency devaluation is undesirable.
-recent market moves are somewhat volatile
-expect G20 to debate how to cooperate in response to recent market moves
-G20 also likely to discuss oil price volatility
-Japan is not engaged in competitive currency devaluation
-G7, G20 share understanding that competitive currency devaluation not desirable

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212

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Feb 2016 03:03GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr trades with a soft bias in Asia on Wednesday. Despite initial 1-tick fall below yesterday's New York low of 111.77 due to initial gap-down open in the Nikkie, intra-day recovery in the N225 index lifted the pair back to 112.08, however, traders are buying the yen vs euro, gbp and aud on risk aversion, suggesting sideways trading would continue ahead of European open.

Offers are tipped at 112.10/20 and more above with some stops reported above 112.40.
Some bids are reported at 111.75-65 with stops below 111.55. There is market chatter of fairly large stops building below Febuary’s 15-month trough of 110.99.

Looking ahead, pay attention to a slew of U.S. data during New York morning starting with Markit servics PMI for Febuary and January new home sales.

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213

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Feb 2016 02:06GMT
USD/JPY - … Bank of Japan Takahide Kiuchi said in a speech to the business leaders on negative interest rates, could have a result on Japan’s financial system being destabilised by squeezing banks’ margins and reducing returns on financial investment, and that BOJ should have save that for the future.
A former market economist, Kiuchi was among four of the nine board members who dissented to the BOJ’s decision last month to adopt negative rates to prevent global market turmoil from delaying a sustained end to deflation. He has also been a lone proponent to taper the bank’s massive asset-buying programme.

More on his latest speech :
-personally felt BoJ ought to save its options now instead of introducing negative rates last month
-don’t think BoJ has no tools left to act if economic, financial environment deteriorates
-desirable for central banks to guide policy flexibly, comprehensively combining various means
-in event of crisis, BoJ should consider steps like offering temporary, ample liquidity to protect financial system
-2 pct inflation exceeds price level deemed appropriate in light of true strength of Japan’s economy
-at present, hard to achieve 2 pct inflation stably with monetary policy alone
-Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately
-Capex, wages are not rising as much as I hoped
-see global economic outlook, market developments as key risks to Japan’s economy
-if exports show clear downtrend on weak overseas growth, that may hurt Japan’s consumption, output
-tough to push up long-term inflation expectations with BoJ policy alone
-vigilant to various problems that may occur as BoJ buys and holds massive amounts of jgb, which could distort market function
-adopting negative rates risks destabilising BoJ’s asset buying
-dissented to last month’s decision as did not see need to expand stimulus with economic, price conditions stable

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214

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Feb 2016 03:11GMT

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Despite initial rise above o/n New York high of 113.02 on higher open in the Nikkie (N225 index climbed to 2-1/2 week high of 16472) following yesterday's rally in the Dow, however, the pair pared intra-day gain on a surprise rise in the euro vs usd, price later retreated to 112.68.

Looks like dlr would consolidate below said Asian high due to broad-based usd’s weakness until European open.
Offers are tipped above 113.00/10 and more above with stops reported above 113.40.
Initial bids are noted at 112.70-60 with some stops touted below there, however, more buying interest is reported at 112.30-20.

Data to be released on Friday:

New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Japan CPI, U.K. consumer confidence, Germany import price index, CPI, Harmonised index of consumer prices, France producer prices, consumer spending, GDP, Italy wage inflation, Eurozone consumer confidence, services sentiment, business climate, industrial sentiment, inflation expectation, selling price expectation, U.S. GDP, personal consumption expenditures, personal income, personal spending, good trade balance, adjusted consumption and Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

Pay attention to release of important preliminary U.S. Q4 GDP at 13:30GMT as the pair reacted to yesterday’s upbeat U.S. durable good order n rallied after the data.

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215

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Feb 2016 02:52GMT

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ..... Despite Friday's rally in New York session to a 1-week high of 114.00 after release of a slew of upbeat U.S. data, dlr fell in choppy Asian trading as decline in Asian stocks except the Nikkie (China Shanghai composite was down 4% earlier) triggered broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion, price weakened to 113.30 after tripping some stops below 113.50.

Looks like choppy trading below 114.00 would be seen with downside bias as offers are noted at 113.50/60 and more at 113.85/90 with stops reported above 114.00.
Some bids are noted at 113.30-20 with stops touted below 113.00.

Do pay attention to U.S. data due out later today which includes Chicago PMI and then pending home sales data, if these data come out weaker than street forecast, then one can expect dlr to come under renewed selling.

Data to be released this week:

New Zealand building permits, Japan industrial production, retail trades, Swiss KOF leading indicator, U.K. mortgage approval, Italy CPI, Eurozone inflation, Canada producer prices, raw materials prices, current account and U.S. Chicago PMI on Monday.

New Zealand term of trade, imports, exports, Australia AIG manufacturing index, building permits, current account, interest rate decision, Japan unemployment rate, jobs/applicants ratio, all household spending, MOF business Capex, manufacturing PMI, China, non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, unemployment change, Eurozone manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. manufacturing PMI, Canada manufacturing PMI, GDP, U.S. Redbook, manufacturing PMI and construction spending on Tuesday.

Australia GDP, Swiss GDP, U.K. construction PMI, Eurozone producer prices, U.S. mortgage application and ADP national employment on Wednesday.

Australia imports, exports, trade balance, China service PMI, France service PMI, unemployment rate, Italy service PMI, Germany service PMI, U.K. service PMI, Eurozone service PMI, retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, unit labour costs, nonfarm productivity, service PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods, non-defense capital and factory orders on Thursday.

Australia retail sales, Italy GDP, U.K. inflation expectations, U.S. unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, manufacturing payrolls, average earning, participation rate, international trade, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, labour productivity and Ivey PMI on Friday.

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216

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
01 Mar 2016 01:15GMT

USD/JPY - .....Earlier Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the central bank's negative interest rate policy was already having positive effects after its adoption in late January and is currently not considering to compile additional fiscal spending to prop up the economy given that the budget for next fiscal year had not yet cleared parliament.

Data out by the Ministry of Finance, the Japanese capital investment rose at a slower pace in October-December and corporate profits fell for the first time in four years in a worrying sign that flagging business spending will weigh on economic growth. The data suggests that revised gross domestic product (GDP) due on March 8 may show Japan’s economy contracted more than first reported, adding to the sense of pessimism surrounding the strength of domestic demand.

Japan’s robust employment pattern continued, however, with seasonally adjusted unemployment falling in January to 3.2 percent, versus the median estimate for 3.3 percent. The jobs to applicants ratio rose to a 24-year high of 1.28, versus the median forecast of 1.27.

Separate data showed household spending fell more than expected in January, providing further evidence that uncertainty about the economy may be behind consumers cutting expenditure.
Decelerating capital investment and corporate profits are a worrying sign that the government may need to respond with more stimulus measures to prevent business and household activity from weakening further.

A preliminary estimate showed the economy contracted an annualised 1.4 percent in October-December as consumer spending and exports slumped. The 8.5 percent annual increase in capital expenditure in October-December was slower than an 11.2 percent annual gain in July-September.
Japan’s household spending fell an annual 3.1 percent in January, more than the median estimate for a 2.7 percent year-on-year decline.

Japan’s economy is expected to return to growth in the current quarter, but there are persistent doubts about the outlook. Economists say the government’s reforms have not done enough to raise the potential growth rate.

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217

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Mar 2016 02:30GMT

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Despite yesterday's cross-inspired selloff from New York's 2-week high of 114.56 to as low as 113.22, dlr ratcheted higher to 113.89 partly on yen-selling as intra-day minor gain in the Nikkie boosted risk sentiment, suggesting range trading is in store until European open.

Offers are tipped at 113.85/95 and more above with stops above 114.00, however, more selling interest is reported at 114.45/55.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 113.50-10 with some stops below 113.20.

Pay attention to release of U.S. initial weekly jobless claims, ISM services PMI and the important January durable goods order ahead of Friday’s key jobs data.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Australia imports, exports, trade balance, China service PMI, France service PMI, unemployment rate, Italy service PMI, Germany service PMI, U.K. service PMI, Eurozone service PMI, retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, unit labour costs, nonfarm productivity, service PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods, non-defense capital and factory orders.

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218

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Mar 2016 02:00GMT

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Despite staging an intra-day rally in post-NFP New York low of 113.12 to as high as 114.26 in New York afternoon on active cross-selling in yen, dlr pared Friday's gain and fell to 113.50 after tripping stops below 113.70 as the Nikkei opened lower on Monday, damping market's risk appetite.

Looks like said Friday’s 114.26 peak would hold from here as intra-day broad-based cross unwinding in yen suggests selling dlr on recovery is favoured.
Offers are noted at 113.85/95 n more at 114.00 with stops above 114.30.
Some bids are reported at 113.50-40 with stops touted below 113.10.

BoJ Gov Kuroda will be speaking at at a forum hosted by Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper at 03:40GMT.

Data to be released:

Japan leading economic index, coincident index, Germany factory orders, Italy producer prices, Eurozone investor confidence and U.S. employment trend on Monday.

New Zealand manufacturing sales, Japan GDP, trade balance, current account, economy watcher poll, consumer confidence index, Australia business confidence, business conditions, China imports, exports, trade balance, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, U.K. retail sales, Germany industrial production, France imports, exports, trade balance, current account, Eurozone GDP, Canada building permits, housing starts, U.S. Redbook and economic optimism on Tuesday.

Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machine tool orders, France nonfarm payroll, U.K. manufacturing output, GDP estimate, industrial output, U.S. mortgage application, wholesale inventories, wholesale sale, Canada rate decision, New Zealand rate decision on Wednesday.

Japan domestic corporate goods price index, Australia inflation expectation, China producer price index, consumer price index, Germany export, import, trade balance, current account, France industrial output, U.K. housing survey, Eurozone interest rate decision, U.S. initial jobless claims, Canada new housing price index and capacity utilization on Thursday.

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Germany consumer price index, Harmonised index of consumer prices,
Italy industrial output, U.K. construction output, good trade balance, Canada unemployment rate, employment change, participation rate, U.S. import prices, export prices and Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday.

China retail sales and industrial production on Saturday.

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219

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Mar 2016 03:23GMT

USD/JPY - ..... In stark contrast to yesterday's weakness in Asian morning, dlr resumed o/n rally and climbed above o/n New York high of 113.45 after meeting renewed buying at 113.15, price climbed to 113.69 as o/n gain in oil prices plus intra-day rise in the Nikkie boosted risk sentiment, triggering another wave of broad-based yen-selling.

Although intra-day firmness suggests near term upside bias remains, as broad outlook continues to be consolidative, gain above previous strong res at 114.26/27 is not envisaged especially no major U.S. eco. data is due out except the weekly U.S. jobless claims data.

Bids are noted at 113.25-15 with stops below 113.00.
Offers are tipped at 113.80/90 with some stops touted above 114.00, however, more selling interest is reported at 114.15/25.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Japan domestic corporate goods price index, Australia inflation expectation, China producer price index, consumer price index, Germany export, import, trade balance, current account, France industrial output, U.K. housing survey, Eurozone interest rate decision, U.S. initial jobless claims, Canada new housing price index and capacity utilization

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220

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
11 Mar 2016 02:00GMT

[B]USD/JPY[/B] .....  A government survey showed that the Japanese business sentiment worsened sharply in the first quarter, suggesting that financial market turbulence and sluggish global demand were taken a toll on a fragile economic recovery.

The data keeps pressure on policymakers to deploy additional fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to reflate an economy that is skirting another recession.

The business survey index (BSI) of sentiment at large manufacturers stood at minus 7.9 in January-March, swinging from plus 3.8 in October-December, according to a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office.
The index measuring big manufacturers’ sentiment three months ahead stood at minus 3.5, a sign the gloomy outlook may discourage companies from boosting wages or capital expenditure, given sluggish demand in China and other emerging Asian markets.
Companies expect capital expenditure to have risen 8.8 percent in the current fiscal year ending in March, but shrink 6.6 percent in the coming business year, the survey showed.

The world’s third-largest economy shrank in the final quarter of 2015 as slow wage growth and sluggish global demand hurt consumption and exports.
While many analysts expect growth to have rebounded modestly in the current quarter, the bleak outlook for global demand has led some to predict another contraction that will push Japan back into technical recession - defined as two straight quarters of economic contraction.

The BSI measures the percentage of firms that expect the business environment to improve from the previous quarter minus the percentage that expect it to worsen.

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday that he hoped the BOJ would continue its efforts to achieve its 2 percent price target, while suggesting that specific monetary policy steps were up to the central bank to decide.
The adoption of negative interest rates by the BOJ is already having an impact such as bringing down housing loan rates.
The BOJ is set to hold off cutting interest rates at next week’s rate review, as it scrambles to soothe market jitters which was caused by January’s surprise decision to adopt.

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221

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Mar 2016 02:13GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr gains in Asian morning trading as rally in U.S. stocks lifted Asian stocks, boosting risk sentiment in Asia. The pair initially rose above Friday's New York high of 113.92 to in New Zealand and despite a brief retreat to 113.65 ahead of Tokyo open, buyers quickly emerged when the Nikkie opened higher (currently up 325 points at 17264), price climbed to 114.01 before easing.

Looks like dlr’s daily swings are get to continue and although intra-day rise in Asian stocks should yield marginal dlr gain, offers are tipped at 114.20/30 and more above with stops reported above 114.60.
Bids are noted at 113.75-65 and more below with stops below Friday’s New York low at 113.34.

U.S. had moved into summer time and set the clock faster by one hour on Sunday.

Data to be released:

Japan machinery order, China leading economic index, Eurozone industrial production and U.S. housing market index on Monday.

Japan BoJ rate decision, industrial output, capacity utilization, France CPI, Italy CPI, Eurozone employment, U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index, producer price index, retail sales, retail control, Redbook, business inventories, Net TIC flows, overall net capital flows and foreign T-bonds buying on Tuesday.

New Zealand current account, Australia Westpac leading index, Japan industrial production, tertiary industry index, capacity utilization, Germany wholesale price index, Italy trade balance, U.K. unemployment, average earning, claimant count change, U.S. mortgage application, building permits, housing starts, CPI, manufacturing output, industrial output, capacity utilization, Fed interest rate decision and Canada manufacturing sales on Wednesday.

New Zealand GDP, Japan, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia employment, full time employment, participation rate, unemployment rate, Swiss producer and import prices, Italy trade balance, retail sales, Eurozone trade balance, CPI, U.K. BoE interest rate decision, MPC vote, QE total, U.S. current account, wholesales and leading indicator on Thursday.

Germany producer price index, Eurozone labour cost, U.S. Philadelphia Fed business index, Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Canada CPI and retail sales on Friday.

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222

AceTraderFx Mar 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
16 Mar 2016 02:06GMT

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Japan's PM Shinzo Abe is meeting with foreign economists to help him prepare for hosting a Group of Seven summit that will be hosted by Japan in May 2016, and U.S. Nobel laureate and economist Joseph Stiglitz said that he had advised Shinzo Abe to delay a sales tax increase scheduled for next year and to focus more on fiscal spending to boost a recovery from recession. Stiglitz told Abe that G7 need to coordinate policy as weak aggregate demand was harming the global economy and contributing to income disparity.

The G7 talks, according to some economists, could give Abe a convenient reason to postpone tax hikes, relax fiscal austerity and and introduce more stimulus to avoid relying too much on monetary policy.
“A consumption tax increase now would be going in the wrong direction,” said Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University. “This is a time to have stimulating fiscal policy.”

Abe is scheduled to raise the nationwide sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in April next year, but some of Abe’s closest advisers are calling for the plan to be shelved.
Abe had raised the levy to 8 percent from 5 percent in April 2014, which was agreed under the previous government in order to curb Japan’s massive public debt, but this move triggered a recession and some economists say consumer spending still has not fully recovered.

Stiglitz advised the Japan’s government the need to adapt its policies in response to changes in the economy, and that taxes on carbon emissions could be a better way to spur innovation and improve domestic demand.
A G20 summit last month had called for more fiscal spending and less reliance on monetary policy to help the fragile global economy, which some investors say has reached its limit after years of quantitative easing and negative real interest rates.

This morning Dlr pared yesterday’s sharp losses and jumped in Asian morning on BoJ Kuroda’s dovish remarks. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda was speaking in parliament this morning, he commented that it was theoretically possible for the central bank to cut interest rates to around minus 0.5 percent, but he could not say at this moment which policy tools the BOJ would use in case it decided to expand monetary stimulus again, saying that it would depend on economic conditions at the time.
The BOJ added a negative interest rate policy to its massive asset-buying programme in January and began charging a 0.1 percent interest on a portion of excess reserves financial institutions park with the central bank.

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223

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
22 Mar 2016 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - … The pair trades with a firm undertone in Asian morning as o/n broad-based rebound in the USD and intra-day gain in the Nikkie (currently up by 347 points at 17072) has boosted risk sentiment.

Dlr climbed to 111.97 near New York close on Monday and price quickly rose above 112.00 in Australia after hitting stops above there and climbed to 112.22 at Tokyo open before a brief retreat to 111.84, however, buyers emerged and lifted the pair.

Bids are noted at 111.90-80 with stops below 111.50, some offers are tipped at 112.20/30 with stops above there.

Japan FinMin Aso told reporters after a cabinet meeting on Tuesday that the Japanese economy’s fundamentals were firm and there was no need to adopt fresh fiscal spending to stimulate the economy, and they we need to continue to coordinate with the international community.
Aso made the remark when asked about growing calls in some quarters for Japan to take a leadership role as G7 chair in coordinating fiscal steps to boost domestic demand.

While their EconMin Ishihara speaking to reporters today that the effects of the Bank of Japan’s surprise negative interest rate policy on Japan’s real economy are not yet clear. They would need to monitor for about 3 months to see the effects of negative rate policy and to gauge the impact.
The BOJ unexpectedly cut a benchmark interest rate below zero in January, stunning investors with another bold move to stimulate the economy.

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224

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
23 Mar 2016 02:07GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Bank of Japan board member Yukitoshi Funo in a speech to business leaders in Kobe said that the central bank will proceed with ultra-loose monetary policy via aggressive asset purchases and low interest rates.

“The BOJ is ready to steadily promote monetary easing using all three policy tools of quantity, quality (of asset buying), as well as interest rates”. He also warned that sluggish emerging market demand and volatile markets may hurt exports and capital expenditure.

Funo was a former Toyota Motor Corp executive who joined the BOJ last July, Funo was among those on the nine-member board to vote for the decision in January to adopt a negative interest rate policy to prevent external risks from delaying a sustained end to deflation.
The poll of 513 big and mid-sized Japanese companies between March 3-17, of which 259 responded, came a week after the BOJ downgraded its economic view because of sluggish exports and factory output. The central bank stood pat at last week’s policy review, after adopting a negative interest rate policy in January.

The upcoming BOJ tankan on April 1 is among key indicators the central bank scrutinises when making monetary policy. Expectations linger that it could ease again in coming months to hit its ambitious 2 percent price target.
Many manufacturers complained about the slowdown in China and emerging markets, and rises in the yen, which hit a 17-month high below 111 versus the dollar JPY this month.

Compared with three months ago, the manufacturers’ index worsened by three points, is suggesting BOJ’s tankan may show a deterioration in the big manufacturers’ sentiment. The service-sector index rose to 24 from 21 in February, led by retailers and information/communications. The index is seen worsening again in the next three months.

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225

AceTraderFx Mar 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
24 Mar 2016 01:14GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr briefly dipped to intra-day low of 112.29/30 after the release of BoJ minutes before staging a strong rebound. Bank of Japan policymakers engaged in heated debate on the pros and cons of their decision in January to adopt negative interest rates, with one even saying it was preferable to roll it back, a summary of their opinions at the March 14-15 rate review showed today.

Quote: “It’s preferable to roll back the negative rate policy. But abandoning it immediately after introducing it would cause market confusion and risk eroding trust in the BOJ. With the effects (of the policy) still not clear, we should maintain the policy”.

Just published summary of BoJ meeting -March 14-15:
The balance risks to Japan, and the overseas economies remain tilted to downside and while markets remain unstable at the start of year that has no disruption in Japan’s economy.
Their exports, production are weak so this may affect capex, together with weak wage growth, data on inflation expectations also falling; chances of consumer inflation excluding volatile food, energy remaining above 1 pct has diminished.

Negative rate policy is exerting intended effects and that is preferable than to abandon it, but rolling it back now would erode confidence in BoJ policy so should maintain it for time being. But the Negative rate policy has not spurred portfolio rebalancing effect as much as expected, and with all the drawbacks of negative rates, such as giving market the impression that BoJ is reaching limits to Japanese Government Bond buying, are materialising.
Again, negative rate policy has strengthened deflationary mindset by causing public anxiety on outlook, now offering exemptions to negative rate policy could heighten market volatility.
Communication with markets has become very difficult as markets beginning to price in further BoJ action and they are aiming for ‘surprise’ effect which has heightened uncertainty on what could trigger BoJ action, heightened market instability.

MOF rep will closely be watching the markets, coordinating with global community and the communique of Feb G20 finance leaders’ meeting will also include on the factors which Japan considered important.

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226

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Mar 2016 03:06GMT

USD/USD - ..... Despite initial brief break of o/n New York low of 112.34 to 112.30 in delayed reaction to release of BoJ minutes, a wave of broad-based yen selling quickly emerged and sent the pair sharply higher to intra-day top of 112.86 before easing.

Dlr’s intra-day gain due to usd’s broad-based strength in Asia suggests upside bias remains for erratic rise from last last Thursday’s 16-month trough at 110.67 to resume after consolidation as further hawkish comments by St Louis Fed President James Bullard in yesterday’s New York session has given the greenback support vs its major perr currencies, suggesting price is likely to ratchet higher.

Bids have been raised to 112.70-60 and more below with stops below 112.30. more stops are touted below 112.00.
Offers are tipped at 112.85/95 with stops above 113.00.

Pay attention to release of U.S. data later today with weekly jobless claims, durable goods data at 12:30GMT, then Market Mar services PMI at 13:15GMT. Fed President Bullard will speak in New York at 12:15GMT, so be alert on more hawkish remarks from him.

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand exports, imports, trade balance, Germany GfK consumer sentiment, Markit manufacturing flash PMI, Markit service flash PMI, France business climate, Markit manufacturing flash PMI, Markit service flash PMI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, retail sales, Eurozone Markit manufacturing flash PMI, Markit service flash PMI, U.K. retail sales, CBI distributive trades survey, U.S. building permits, durable goods, initial jobless claims and Markit manufacturing flash PMI.

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227

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Mar 2016 01:16GMT

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Dlr moves sideways in quiet Asian trading after clocking up 7 days of consecutive gains on Monday. Despite climbing to a fresh 1-week high of 113.69 in holiday-thinned Asian morning yesterday, price briefly dropped to 113.15 in New York morning on soft U.S. PCE data as the lower-than-expected reading quickly led U.S. economists cut their forecast on U.S. Q1 GDP growth.

Looks like range trading below said yesterday’s temporary top would continue in Asian morning, however, as dlr is still in trending mode, buying the pair on dips is still the favoured strategy.
Bids are noted at 113.25-15 and more below with stops touted below 112.90, offers are tipped at 113.65/75 and more above with stop reported Book value-bv 114.00.

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228

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Mar 2016 01:19GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Although dlr retreated after yesterday's intra-day rebound from 112.02 (Europe) to 112.68 in New York morning, price jumped from 112.24 to 112.66 in Tokyo morning as intra-day rise in Nikkei increased risk appetite and triggered broad-based selling in yen.

In Asian session, we will see the release of Japan’s construction orders and housing starts at 05:00GMT.
In addition, investors should pay attention to the headlines as BoJ’s Governor Kuroda may deliver speech during his appearance in Japanese parliament (04:00GMT).

At present, offers are noted at 112.70-80 and then 111.90-00 with stops above there, whilst bids are noted at 112.30-20 and more around 112.10 with stops below 112.00, suggesting choppy sideways trading would be seen ahead of European open.

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand business confidence, Australia new home sales, Japan construction orders, housing start, Germany retail sales, unemployment rate, unemployment change, France consumer spending, producer prices, CPI, U.K. GDP, current account, mortgage approvals, Italy CPI, producer prices, Eurozone inflation, U.S. initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI and Canada GDP.

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