Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Apr 2016 02:16GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The Japanese yen gained broadly on Tue in Asia as data on wages suggested improvement (see our previous MMN). The pair came under renewed selling pressure after meeting selling interest at 111.36 ahead of Asian open and then fell below New York support at 111.10 to a session low of 110.86 after the Japan's jobs report.
Although dlr’s intra-day weakness in Asia suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen, as investors are awaiting more clarity on the direction of rates in the U.S. in the release of minutes later this week, sharp decline below Mar’s 16-mohth bottom at 110.67 is not likely to be seen and 110.00 (psychological support) should hold on 1st testing.
Today will see the release of U.S. service PMI by Markit and ISM non-manufacturing in New York morning.
At the moment, offers are noted at 111.10-20 and more at 111.30-40 with stops above 111.50, whilst on the downside, bids are reported at 110.70-60 and then at 110.50-30 region with stops below there.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Apr 2016 02:00GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback retreated after yesterday's intra-day rebound from a fresh 17-month trough at 107.63 (Asia) to 108.44 in New York morning, renewed buying emerged at 107.79 n price later staged a bounce to 108.13 in New York afternoon, then 108.27 in Tokyo morning on Tuesday as intra-day rise in Nikkei (currently up 104 points to 15,855) improved risk appetites.
Today, U.S. will release its Import Prices n Export Prices for March in New York morning. Having said that, focus of the market will be on the speeches from several Fed’s officials later in New York session, they are Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (13:00GMT), San Francisco Fed President John Williams (19:00GMT), and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker (20:00GMT).
At the moment, offers are noted at 108.30-40 and more at 108.60-70 with stops above 108.90.
On the downside, initial bids are tipped at 107.90-80 and then 107.70-60 with stops below there.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Apr 2016 01:18GMT
USD/JPY - ....... The greenback continued to nurse its recent losses against the Japanese yen on Tuesday and rose to 108.79 in New York morning before retreating to 108.44 due to cross-buying in yen versus euro and sterling.
Today, as intra-day rally in Nikkei (currently up 263 points to 16,192) in Tokyo morning has improved risk appetites, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen in Asia and early Europe.
However, sharp gain beyond 109.00 level is not likely ahead of the release of important U.S. PPI readings n retail sales reports in New York morning.
At the moment, initial bids are noted at 108.50-40 and more at 108.30-20 with stops below there, whilst offers are reported at 108.90-00 and then 109.10-20 with stops above there.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Apr 2016 01:05GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Dlr 'gap-down' opened below Friday's New York low of 108.60 to as low as 107.75 (Reuters) in NZ this morning on broad-based buying in yen for risk aversion after an earthquake a 7.0 magnitude earthquake hit southern Japan's Kyushu Island on Saturday.
Later, despite a recovery to 108.46 ahead of Asian open, price retreated to 107.90 in Tokyo morning due to a decline of near 3% in Nikkei (currently down 2.7% or 454 points to 16,393).
Today, NAHB will release its housing market index for U.S. at 14:00GMT, however, focus of the market will be on the speeches from New York Fed President William Dudley andn Minneapolis Federal Reserve president Neel Kashkari at 12:30GMT n 16:30GMT respectively.
At present, offers are reported at 108.30-40 n more at 108.50-70 region with mixture of offers and stops located at 108.80-90.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 107.70-60 and then 107.50-40 with stops below 107.30.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Apr 2016 01:12GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Although improved risk appetites on Tuesday triggered broad-based selling in yen and pushed usd/jpy pair higher to 109.49 in New York morning, profit-taking knocked dlr down to 109.00 in o/n New York.
Later, the pair edged higher to 109.32 ahead of Asian open and then retreated to 109.04 in Tokyo morning.
Today, U.S. will release its latest Existing home sales report at 14:00GMT. Market expects the reading to increase to 5.29 million units and a gain of 3.5% in March compare to 5.08 million units and -7.0% in preceding month respectively.
At the moment, offers are noted at 109.30-40 and more at 109.50-60 with stops above 109.70.
On the downside, bids are reported at 109.00-108.90 and then in the region of 108.70-50 with stops below there.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Apr 2016 01:01GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Although dlr retreated versus yen to 108.77 in European morning yesterday, the pair later rallied above last week's top at 109.74 to 109.88 in o/n New York on usd's broad-based strength following release of upbeat U.S. Existing Home Sales data, then marginal gain to 109.90 ahead of Asian open on Thursday before easing.
Today, U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, Housing Price Index (February) and CB Leading Indicator (March) at 12:30GMT, 13:00GMT and 14:00GMT respectively.
Market expects the U.S. jobless claims to increase 10K last week to 263K compare to 253K in previous reading, whilst U.S. leading indicators to improve to 0.4% from 0.1% in preceding month.
At present, bids are reported at 109.50-40 and more at 109.30-10 region with stops below 109.00, whilst offers are noted at 109.90-110.00 and then 110.10-20 with stops above there.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Apr 2016 01:25GMT
USD/JPY - … The greenback ratcheted lower after an initial gain to 109.90 in Australia on Thursday and fell to 109.33 in New York on cross-buying in yen, then marginally lower to 109.26 in Tokyo morning on Friday.
Today, the research firm Markit will release its indicator for U.S. business conditions in the manufacturing sector at 13:45GMT. Market expects the flash reading for Apr to improve to 52.0 from 51.5 in preceding month.
At present, offers are noted at 109.40-50 and more at 109.60-70 with stops above 109.90, whilst bids are reported at 109.10-00 and then 108.90-80 with stops below 108.70.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, IFO-current assessment, IFO-business climate, IFO- expectations, Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, retail sales, Canada retail sales, CPI, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit service PMI
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Apr 2016 01:12GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Although price retreated after an initial rise to a fresh 3-week peak at 111.91 ahead of Asian open yesterday, renewed selling in yen contained intra-day weakness at 110.84 at New York open and price later recovered to 111.33 before edging lower to 110.96 in Tokyo morning on Tuesday.
Today’s focus for the greenback will be on the release of U.S. durable goods orders and U.S. consumer confidence at 12:30GMT and 14:00GMT respectively. Market expects the U.S. durable goods orders in March to turn back into positive territory at +1.8% compare to -3.0% in preceding month, whilst consumer confidence to drop slightly to 96.0 in April from 96.2 in previous reading.
In addition, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will start its regular monthly meeting today and announce its latest monetary policy decision n statement in New York afternoon on Wed.
At present, bids are reported at 111.00-110.90 and more at 110.80-70 with mixture of bids and stops at 110.60-40 region.
On the upside, offers are noted at 111.40-50 and then 111.60-70 with stops above 111.90.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Apr 2016 01:12GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr rebounded after a brief selloff to 110.67 in European morning yesterday due to renewed broad-based selling in yen on improved risk appetites. Later, price ratcheted higher to 111.47 in o/n New York before retreating to 111.14 shortly after Asian open on Wednesday.
Today, investors should pay attention to the release U.S. Pending home sales and U.S. trade balance for March in New York morning, then the announcement of latest Fed’s monetary policy and statement in New York afternoon (18:00GMT and 18:30GMT respectively). Having said that, the FOMC is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged in a range of 0.25% to 0.50% n with virtually no expectations for a rate increase, and no press conference or economic projections, it could be one of the most low-key Fed events.
At present, bids are noted at 111.10-00 and more 110.90-80 with stops below 110.60, whilst offers are reported at 111.30-40 and then 111.60-70 with stops above 111.90.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Apr 2016 01:12GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Despite dlr's volatile swings in post-FOMC New York session, price found renewed buying at 111.08 and later climbed above o/n New York high of 111.75 to 111.86 in Tokyo morning on Thursday due to renewed broad-based gain in usd.
Today’s focus for the greenback will be on the release of U.S. GDP, PCE n weekly jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
Market expects the U.S. economy to slowdown to 0.7% in Q1 compare to 1.4% in previous quarter.
Meanwhile, forecast for the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week is to be 260K compare to previous reading of 247K.
At present, bids are noted at 111.60-50 and then 111.40-30 with stops below 111.20, whilst offers are noted ahead of Monday’s 3-week peak at 111.91 with stops above there, however, selling interest from various accounts is tipped at 112.00-20 region.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 May 2016 02:49GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr is nursing loss in then Tokyo trading as Japan's financial markets (markets will re-open on Friday) are closed for so-called Golden Week holiday.
The pair met renewed selling at 106.46 just ahead of Asian opening on what traders cited as speculative yen-buying, although price briefly penetrated yesterday’s 18-month trough of 106.14 to 106.05, price quickly recovered on short-covering and climbed back to 106.31, suggesting range trading is in store in European morning session.
As indicated in yesterday’s update, there is report of buying interest at 106.10-00 area (some from Japanese importers) with some stops touted below 106.00.
Some offers are tipped at 106.40/50 and more at 106.75/85 with stops above there, more stops are reported above 107.00.
Pay attention to release of U.S. ISM New York index as dlr briefly fell in New York morning on weaker-than-expected ISM mfg PMI.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 May 2016 04:00GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The pair swung 'wildly' in hectic trading on Wed as traders cited poor liquidity due to closure of Japanese financial market for the 3-day Golden Week holiday which began on Tuesday.
Dlr closed near the day’s high at 106.67 in New York and price spike up to 107.47 in Australian morning on stop-loss buying before quickly falling back to as low as 106.52 at Asian open.
However, renewed wave of broad-based usd buying lifted the pair back to 107.25/26.
Looks like price would gyrate inside indicated Asian range until European open with a firm bias due to intra-day usd’s firmness.
Bids are noted at 106.80 n more at 106.60-50 with stops below there. Offers are reported at 107.40/50 with stops touted above there.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 May 2016 05:00GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Despite y'day's intra-day rally fm 106.80 to 107.50 in New York morning after Japanese PM Abe's yen comments (see Thur's 13:36GMT update), the pair moved sideways in New York afternoon. Price initual edged higher at 107.42 at Asian open but fell to 107.04 on renewed cross-buying in yen, led by active selling in aud/yen cross after RBA downgraded its inflation outlook in in quarterly Monetary Policy Statement released at 01:30GMT.
Japanese financial reopen today after 3 days of closure due to Golden Week holiday and with the Nikkie down 113 points together with losses in Asian bourses, consolidation with downside bias is expected in European morning.
Offers are tipped at 107.20/30 and more above with some stops reported above 107.50. Initial bids are noted at 107.00-80 area with stops touted below there.
All eyes are on U.S. jobs report, market will pay attention to April non-farm payrolls data due out at 12:30GMT which is expected to show a rise of 200k as well as average wage earnings, the latter seem to attract more attention and street forecast is looking for a month growth of 0.3% vs the same in previous reading, a lower-than-expected reading will weigh on the greenback and vice versa.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 May 2016 01:20GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The greenback found renewed support in New Zealand and gained in Australia, hitting session high at 107.63 at Tokyo open due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225.
However, profit-taking there capped current rise and pressured the pair lower.
Since there is no major data due from U.S. today, Asian and European traders will continue to focus on Friday’s jobs report and the implications it would have on the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Bids are now seen at 107.20/30 and more below at 107.00/10 with stops building up above there whilst initial offers are noted at 107.90/00, suggesting near term upside bias remains, hence buying on dips is favored.
Breaking news from Reuters, quoting from BoJ’s March meeting minutes:
Some members of BOJ had noted that the attention should be focused to fact consumer sentiment indicators which had shown somewhat a sharp deterioration due to market turbulence. They have agreed that underlying trend in inflation had been improving steadily.
The yr-on-yr increase in CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, would come in lower than previously projected from early spring and that there had been adverse effects from adoption of negative rate policy, such as heightening anxiety among financial institutions and depositors over the policy.
A few of them commented that the portfolio rebalancing under QQE with a negative interest rate had not necessarily exerted its intended effects.
While the government representatives commented that the attention should be paid to increasing uncertainty in overseas economies, effects of market fluctuations on Japan’s economy and they hoped BoJ would continued thoroughly in explaining its negative rate policy, as this was somewhat technical and might be hard to understand for the public.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 May 2016 02:00GMT
USD/JPY - ....... The greenback rallied yesterday from Asian low at 107.23 to as high as 108.60 in New York morning as Japan's FinMin Aso said BoJ was ready to intervene in the FX market if needed. Dlr retreated briefly to 108.26 on profit-taking before rebounding again to 108.49 in Australia today, then marginally higher to 108.62 at Tokyo open due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225 index.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. wholesale inventories and sales at 14:00GMT.
Street forecasts are -0.1% n 0.3% vs previous readings of -0.5% and -0.2% respectively.
Bids are now seen at 108.20/30 and more below at 108.00/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 108.80/90, suggesting buying on intra-day pullback is favored.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 May 2016 02:00GMT
USD/JPY - ......Summary from members of BoJ April policy meeting, below are their views & opinions :
- time is needed for effect of negative rate policy to show on economy, & on prices.
- the downside risks to economy remain large, BoJ shouldn’t hesitate taking additional easing steps if needed.
- they should examine additional easing steps if needed to hit on price target.
- on the enhance sustainability of current policy framework, this may take a much longer time to hit the price target.
- now is time to examine effect of negative rate policy, with eye on global economic developments.
- given that the market distortions caused by negative rates, they must focus on taking flexible approach to hitting base money target.
While BOJ’s gov Kuroda thinks that there is still a large downside risks to Japan’s economy, and that they should not won’t hesitate to take further easing steps if necessary. And if low rates persist for a long time that can cause problems, so if Japan doesn’t escape deflation, rates and consumption won’t be rising.
In addition to current headlines from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Reuters reported that the Governor in an interview with German daily Boersen Zeitung, said the Bank of Japan needs to wait a few more months to see the impact of its stimulus measures on the economy and that the bank could ease policy further if needed.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 May 2016 02:00GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The greenback met renewed selling at 108.83 at New York open and ratcheted lower to 108.37 in New York afternoon on dlr's broad-based weakness and briefly fell below said low to 108.23 at Asian open.
However, lack of follow-through selling triggered short-covering and price rebounded to 108.59 in Tokyo morning.
There is a slew of data to be released from U.S. today but investors should pay particular attention to the release of jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
Street forecast is for a slight decrease to 270K from previous reading of 274K.
Bids are now lowered to 107.90/00 and more below at 107.60/70 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 108.70/80, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 May 2016[/B] [I]01:30GMT[/I]
The Nikkei business daily reported at the weekend that the government would delay the tax increase to focus on measures to boost domestic demand. But today, Japanese Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara speaking to reporters, that there is no truth on the media report that the government would delay a sales tax hike scheduled for next year.
they had not received any instructions from Prime Minister Abe about the sales tax hike and that he would continue his work on compiling the government’s annual growth strategy.
While Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters after a cabinet meeting that finance leaders from the Group of Seven rich nations will likely be discussing currencies and that Japan would place the utmost importance on stability in the foreign exchange market.
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors will meet on May 20-21 in the northeastern Japanese city of Sendai.
The finance chiefs are expected to discuss ways to adopt monetary, structural and other policies taking into account each country’s situation as they tackle uncertainty over the global economy.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe speaking in parliament today, repeating that the government would raise the levy to 10 percent from the current 8 percent next April as scheduled barring a major financial crisis or significant natural disaster. He would decide on a sales tax hike planned for next year “appropriately at the appropriate time”.
[B]AceTraderFx May 18: Japan government won’t change it’s scheduled sales tax unless a crisis similar to collapse of Lehman Brothers happens[/B]
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 May 2016[/B] [I]05:30GMT[/I]
Today in Parliament Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stressed again that there is no change to his plan of proceeding with a scheduled sales tax hike next year unless a crisis of the scale of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, or a huge earthquake, hits the economy. While he pointed out that Japan’s private consumption has been weaker than expected since it was hit by the first sales tax hike in 2014.
The Japanese government’s annual economic growth strategy calls for measures to boost consumption on the assumption it will go ahead with a sales tax hike scheduled for next year, a draft obtained by Reuters showed on Wednesday.
The document, however, may do little to temper speculation that the government will delay the tax increase scheduled for April 2017 amid lingering concern that consumer spending is struggling due to low wages for part-time workers.
Japan’s top government spokesman and economics minister have repeatedly denied a report in the Nikkei newspaper over the weekend that a delay in the tax hike is a done deal.
Economists say Japan’s patchy growth and worries about a global slowdown could eventually force the government to reverse its official position and avoid placing an extra burden on households.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government is set to compile its growth strategy later on Wednesday, which will feature previously announced policies such as an increase in the minimum wage, better pay for day care workers and steps to narrow the pay gap between regular and part-time employees.
The government is scheduled to raise the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent next April.
The planned increase has already been delayed once after an increase to 8 percent from 5 percent in April 2014 hit consumption and knocked the economy into recession.
Japan will host a Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers summit from Friday. Abe has said he wants to use the meeting as a platform to promote more expansive fiscal policy, which economists say makes a sales tax delay more likely.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 May 2016[/B] [I]02:00GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr is nursing loss in subdued Tokyo morning after yesterday’s intra-day selloff from 110.24 (AUS) to as low as 109.11 in ‘delayed’ reaction to weekend’s warning issued by U.S. to Japan on yen-intervention to weaken the yen.
Although dlr tumbled to session low of 09.11 in New York after tripping stops below 109.33 (European low), short-covering (profit-taking) lifted price back to 109.41 in Asia, suggesting choppy trading above said New York low would continue before decline from Friday’s 3-week top at 110.59 resumes later today.
Offers are tipped at 109.55/65 and more above with stops reported above 110.00, initial bids are noted at 109.20-10 with stops below 109.00.
Later today, U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, then Market mfg PMI, new home sales data n Richmond Fed mfg shipment index during New York morning session.