[B]30 May 2016[/B] [I]1:08GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - .... Dollar climbed to a 1-month high of 110.86 ahead of Tokyo open following weekend news of a delay in a sales tax hike. Yesterday it was reported that Japanese PM Shinzo Abe plans to delay an increase in sales tax by two and a half years as the economy sputters and Abe prepares for a national election.
The prime minister, who has promised to announce steps on Tuesday to spur economic growth and promote structural reform, is also expected to order an extra budget to fund stimulus measures, just two months into the fiscal year and on the heels of a supplementary budget to pay for recovery from recent earthquakes in southern Japan.
After chairing a summit of G7 leaders on Friday, Abe said Japan would mobilise “all policy tools” - including the possibility of delaying the tax hike - to avoid what he called an economic crisis on the scale of the global financial crisis that followed the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
Abe has long said he would proceed with a plan to raise the tax rate to 10 percent from 8 percent next April unless Japan faced a crisis on the magnitude of the Lehman shock.
He said the G7 “shares a strong sense of crisis” about the global outlook, with the most worrisome risk being a global contraction led by a slowdown in emerging economies like China.
But other G7 leaders, however, appeared to differ with Abe on the risk of a global crisis, fuelling comment that Abe was using the G7 to justify delaying the painful tax hike.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jun 2016 [/B][I] 01:28[/I]
USD/JPY - ....... Although the greenback found renewed buying at 107.50 in Europe yesterday n rose marginally above Asian high at 107.89 to 107.90, price pared its gains and tumbled to 107.15 in New York morning on yen's broad-based strength.
Dlr met renewed selling at 107.45 in New York afternoon and fell sharply at Tokyo open, hitting a low at 106.85 in Tokyo morning on yen strength as Japan’s GDP data was revised upwards.
As there is no major eco. data due from U.S. today, range trading is likely to be seen with offers noted seen at 107.20/30 and more above at 107.40/50 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 106.20/30.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Jun 2016 [/B][I] 01:28[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Reuters reported ahead of Asian open, Japanese Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said today that he was closely watching the impact of a referendum in Britain later this month over whether or not Britain is to remain in the European Union. Speaking to reporters, he said that if Britons decide to leave the EU this could impact Japanese companies with operations in Britain.
Ishihara also comment that a decline in Japanese machinery orders in April was no reason to be pessimistic about capital expenditure and that he had no plans to change his economic assessment.
Reuters had reported that Japanese wholesale prices fell 4.2 percent in the year to May.
The fall in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, compares with the median market forecast for a 4.2 percent annual decrease and follows a 4.2 percent annual decrease in April.
Overall final goods prices – the prices of finished products charged to businesses – fell 3.0 percent from a year earlier.
Domestic final goods prices, which loosely track the consumer price index, fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jun 2016[/B] [I]02:09GMT[/I]
[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Although dlr ratcheted higher to 105.05 in New York following comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, price retreated to 104.62 ahead of Asian opening on Wednesday and then lower to 104.43 in Tokyo morning due to broad-based buying in yen on risk aversion.
Today’s focus for the greenback will be on another speech from Fed’s Chair Yellen at 14:00GMT, other than that, investors should also pay attention to the release of U.S.'s Monthly Home Price and Existing Homes Sales in New York morning.
At present, offers are reported at 104.70-80 and then 104.90-00 with stops above there.
On the downside, bids are noted at 104.30-20 and more at 104.10-00 with stops below 103.90.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Jun 2016[/B] [I]01:40GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ......This morning an emergency meeting was called four days after Britain's historic vote to leave the European Union. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said that they will ensure liquidity in the yen and in foreign currencies if needed by tapping currency swap lines established among six central banks.
He saw no problems currently in market liquidity or in foreign currency funding among Japanese firms, but would continue to monitor the situation, he told reporters after an emergency meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Finance Minister Taro Aso.
BoJ deputy gov Nakaso they have no comment on whether to hold extra policy meeting and don’t see problem now in market liquidity, foreign currency funding by Japan firms.
While they will continue to monitor market situation, and will assure liquidity in foreign currencies by making use of currency swap arrangements among six central banks.
After the emergency meeting, Japan PM Abe told reporters that he had instructed Aso to take necessary steps in forex market, to focus even more closely especially attention to markets including forex. It is important for G7 to continue to send messages to stabilise markets. There are uncertainty, risks remain in financial markets and they expect BoJ to take steps to sustain market liquidity, financial intermediation
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Jul 2016 [/B] [I]02:16GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - .... Although short-term specs gave the greenback a brief bashing ahead of Asian open on stop hunting and pressured the pair briefly below Friday's 102.44 low to 102.43, lack of follow-through selling swiftly lifted price to 102.68, suggesting range trading is likely to continue in Asia.
As U.S. market is closed for Independence Day holiday, trading is likely to die down by European midday.
Friday’s intra-day selloff from 103.40 (AUS) to as low as 102.44 in Europe n subsequent narrow move in New York session suggests a temp. top has been made there, so mentality today is to sell the pair on recovery for a retracement of last week’s erratic rise from 101.41 (Monday).
Offers are tipped at 102.70/80 and more at 103.00/05 with stops building above 103.55.
Initial bids are noted at 102.45-102.35 with stops below there, more stops are touted below 102.00.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jul 2016[/B] [I]02:02GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... Despite staging a minor short-covering recovery after New York close following hawkish comments by some Fed officials (see previous updates for details), the pair tumble ahead of Tokyo open as intra-day selloff in the sterling prompted fresh round of yen-buying by investors on risk aversion.
The intra-day weakness in the Nikkie (currently down 3% at 15192) suggests market remains in ‘risk off’ mode. Therefore, selling the greenback is recommended.
Offers have been lowered to 101.00/10 and more above, some bids are noted at 100.50-40 and more below with stops touted below 100.00.
Although U.S. will release some eco. data in New York morning, market may pay more attention to Fed minutes for June later in the day at 18:00GMT
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Jul 2016[/B] [I] 04:02GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 100.63.. Dlr pared initial gain after ratcheting from 100.45 (New Zealand) to 100.88 following Sunday's landslide win by the ruling LDP in the upper house election.
Despite strong performance in the Nikkei (currently up 3.5% at 15642), the pair was unable to make further headway towards the 101.00 level, suggesting price is likely to move inside Friday’s post-NFP range of 100.00-101.28 for rest of the day.
With no key U.S. economic data due out, technical trading and fund flows will have greater influence over intra-day price swings.
For now, offers are tipped at 100.90/00 and more above with stops reported above 101.50.
Initial bids are noted at 100.50-45 and more below with stops building below 100.00.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jul 2016[/B] [I]03:00GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... In total stark contrast to dlr's spectacular rally seen on Monday and Tuesday (this 2-day rise was the biggest dlr's gain since 2014), the pair fell just ahead of Tokyo open.
Intra-day accelerated when Japan’s government spokesman denied “helicopter money” as part of next stimulus measure, dlr later tumbled to as low as 103.95 before stabilising.
Looks like yesterday’s 2-week high print at 104.99 would continue to hold and choppy trading with downside bias is likely as dlr longs established this week will be unwound, therefore, selling the pair on intra-day recovery is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 104.35/45 n more at 104.70.
Initial bids are noted at 104.00-103.90 with some stops touted below 103.70.
Yesterday, Abe’s meeting with former U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, a proponent of “helicopter money” policies, also fueled speculation that the government’s stimulus package could be funded by the Bank of Japan’s easing.
Today, The Sankei newspaper reported Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, told the premier that now was a good time to embark on the policy, in which money is printed and directly handed to the private sector to stimulate the economy.
While Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said that the Bank of Japan would decide monetary policy steps based on market movements and economic environment.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jul 2016[/B] [I]08:02GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ......Reuters reported The Bank of Japan will factor in the government's planned fiscal stimulus package in producing new quarterly projections this month, which will help moderate any cuts to its inflation forecasts, sources familiar with its thinking said.
The BOJ is usually reluctant to factor in the effect of fiscal stimulus packages unless details, including the actual size of spending, are finalised and announced by the government.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has yet to announce the size of his planned stimulus package and may not finalise the amount before the BOJ’s policy meeting on July 28-29, when the bank conducts a quarterly review of its growth and price forecasts.
But the BOJ will likely take into account the impact from the upcoming package, which analysts say could be worth around 10 trillion yen ($96 billion), and the boost to consumption from a delay in the sales tax hike scheduled for April 2017, the sources said, and the prime minister has made it quite clear there will be a sizable stimulus package aimed at beating deflation, it would be strange not to take into account the effect of such a package in compiling estimates.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Jul 2016[/B] [I]02:15GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... The Japanese yen took centre stage in hectic trading on Monday despite closure of Japanese financial markets for Marine Day holiday.
Market volatility accelerated near New York close on Friday following breaking news of a military coup in Turkey, causing the pair to tank from around 105.70 to session lows of 104.64.
However, dlr opened higher in New Zealand on Monday following Bloomberg’s report ahead of Asian open of early dovish comments by Japan’s Chief Govt. spokesman Suga (see 00:00GMT update).
Price climbed from 105.07 to as high as 106.02 in Australia before retreating briefly to 105.31 at Asian open.
Dlr’s aforesaid retreat from 106.02 suggests further choppy trading below Friday’s 3-week peak of 106.32 would continue ahead of European open and in the absence of comments by Japanese official, the pair may drift lower.
Offers are tipped at 106.00/30 area from Japanese exporters) with stop above 106.50, however, more stops are touted above pre-Brexit high of 106.84.
Bids are noted are 105.40-30 and more below with some stops below 105.00.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jul 2016[/B] [I]01:05GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 104.35.. Reuters reported Japan's core consumer prices in June suffered the biggest annual decline since the Bank of Japan embarked on its aggressive stimulus drive in 2013, piling pressure on the central bank to expand an already massive stimulus programme.
Separate data showed household spending fell 2.2 percent, down for a fourth straight month, underscoring the fragile nature of Japan’s economic recovery.
Factory output rose 1.9 percent in June and the jobless rate fell to 3.1 percent, marking the lowest reading in nearly 21 years, with job availability at a nearly 25-year high, reflecting labour shortages, other data showed.
The data comes hours before the Bank of Japan concludes a closely watched two-day rate review ending on Friday, with near-consensus in markets that it will deploy additional stimulus to match the government’s planned big spending package.
The central bank, under pressure from the government, is considering specific steps for expanding monetary stimulus to address signs of weakness in inflation, people familiar with the bank’s thinking said.
The bank has been buying assets like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but already holds around a third of Japan’s market for government bonds (JGBs).
The 0.5 percent fall in the core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was lower than economists’ median estimate for a 0.4 percent annual fall. It fell for fourth straight month, and the decline was the largest since March 2013, just a month before the BOJ deployed the quantitative and qualitative easing programme.
The so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices and is similar to the core index used in the United States, rose 0.4 percent in the year to June.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
03 Aug 2016[/B] [I]01:14GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... BOJ's policy board members shared the view that inflation expectations had weakened somewhat in the short term but remained on an upward path in the long term, minutes of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting held on June 15-16 showed on Wednesday.
The BOJ refrained from offering additional monetary stimulus at the June meeting despite anaemic inflation and weak global growth.
One member of in June repeated a call to reduce government bond purchases while another member said the focus has shifted to interest rates from asset purchases, highlighting doubts about the current policy framework.
At a subsequent meeting on July 29 the BOJ surprised investors by saying it would release a comprehensive review of its quantitative easing in September, reinforcing the view that the BOJ’s current policy framework has reached its limit.
Reuters then reported Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masatsugu Asakawa, said on Wednesday that foreign exchange moves were nervous and that he would watch the market closely.
Asakawa, the vice finance minister for international affairs, made the remarks to reporters at the ministry.
The dollar fell to a three-week low of 100.68 yen on Tuesday after the Japanese government approved a largely expected set of stimulus measures. It was trading around 101.20 yen on Wednesday.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Aug 2016[/B] [I] 01:16GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Despite yesterday’s selloff to 99.54 on broad-based buying of yen, the greenback rallied to 100.53 in New York on hawkish comments from Fed officials.
Dlr found renewed buying at 100.16 in Australia today and rose to 100.68 at Tokyo open due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225.
Market focus is now on the release of FOMC minutes today at 18:00GMT.
Traders will be looking closely for hints on when policymakers would look to hike interest rates next.
Bids are now seen at 100.20/30 and more below at 100.00/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 101.20/30, suggesting choppy trading with upside bias would be seen.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Aug 2016[/B] [I] 02:09GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback opened significantly higher to 100.92 in New Zealand today on weekend news of comments from BoJ's Kuroda (see previous MMN), profit-taking offers there capped intra-day gains and price retreated sharply to 100.30 ahead of Asian open.
Dlr pared its losses and staged a recovery to 100.75 at Tokyo open before retreating again.
Since there is no major economic data due today, further choppy trading would be seen.
Bids are now seen at 100.20/30 and more below at 100.00/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 101.20/30.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Aug 2016[/B] [I]01:09GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... The greenback rose from yesterday's European low at 99.94 to 100.29 at New York midday, then price ratcheted higher to 100.52/53 at Tokyo open on broad-based selling of JPY.
However, profit-taking offers there capped intra-day gains and price retreated to 100.26 in Asian morning.
Since there is no major eco. data due today, further choppy trading is likely to be seen with bids noted at 100.00/10 and more below at 99.80/90 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 100.80/90.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Aug 2016 [/B][I] 01:05GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ....... Despite staging a rebound after finding renewed buying at 100.30 in Europe today, the greenback retreated sharply at Tokyo open today due to data which showed Japan July consumer prices post its biggest annual fall in three years.
Although market focus is on Fed Yellen’s testimony at 14:00GMT due to the guidance she might provide on the central bank’s monetary policy, traders should also keep an eye on the release of U.S. GDP and GDP deflector at 12:30GMT.
Street forecasts are 1.1% and 2.4$ vs previous readings of 1.2% and 2.2% respectively.
Bids are now lowered to 100.20/30 and more below at 100.00/10 with stops building up above there whilst initial offers are noted at 100.80/90, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen ahead of Fed’s Yellen speech.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Aug 2016[/B] [I]01:25GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... THe greenback found renewed buying at 102.16 in European morning and rallied to an intra-day high at 102.13 in New York afternoon as the release of upbeat U.S. consumer confidence data increased speculation of a rate hike from the Fed later this year.
Profit-taking offers there pressured the pair lower to 102.86 ahead of Asian open before climbing to 103.23 at Tokyo open.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. ADP employment at 12:15GMT.
Street forecast is for a slight drop to 175K from previous reading of 179K.
Bids are now seen at 102.70/80 and more below at 102.50/60 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 103.70/80, suggesting buying on dips for a resumption of recent uptrend is favored.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Sep 2016 [/B] [I]01:03GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... Reuters just reported activity in Japan's services sector slipped back into contraction in August as demand remained subdued despite a slight pick-up in new business, a private survey showed on Monday, highlighting the fragility of the economy.
The IHS Market Japan Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dipped to 49.6 in August from 50.4 in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction on a monthly basis.
While the decline was marginal, the reading was below the historical average and reflected a sector that was struggling for traction. The index has been darting between modest expansion and contraction since March.
The index for new business rose for the first time in three months to 50.7 from 49.7 in July, marking the sharpest increase since February.
But activity remained sluggish, prompting services firms to cut staffing for the third month in a row, albeit at a more modest pace than in July.
The services sector accounted for 70 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product in 2014.
Sustained weakness would put more pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan, which have struggled to boost the economy and beat nearly two decades of deflationationary trends despite over three years of aggressive monetary policy and fiscal spending.
The composite Japan index for output in both manufacturing and services dipped into contraction, with a reading of 49.8 compared with 50.1 in July. Manufacturing had a 18.7 percent share of the GDP in 2014.
Japan’s government is set to roll out economic stimulus featuring 13.5 trillion yen ($131 billion) in fiscal measures for public works and other spending to spur growth, though the spending will be spread over several years.
A majority of economists also expect the Bank of Japan will ease policy further later this month, a Reuters poll found, despite growing concerns in markets that its massive stimulus programme may be starting to do more harm than good.
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD[/B]
Update Time: [B]08 Sep 2016[/B] [I] 01:21 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1243
Euro’s anticipated marginal gain to 1.1271 yesterday confirms recent erratic fall from 1.1366 (August high) has made a low last week at 1.1123 and consolidation with mild upside is seen ahead of ECB’s monetary policy announcement ECB President Drgahi’s press conference later today.
As long as 1.1200/10 holds, gain to 1.1300/10 is likely but said August’s peak at 1.1366 should cap upside.
Below 1.1200 would confirm aforesaid rise from 1.1123 has ended and risk would shift to the downside for weakness towards 1.1140/50 later.