AceTraderFx Jan 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/CHF)

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Jan 2015[/B] [I]6:15GMT[/I]

[B]USD/CHF[/B] -...... Both dlr/chf & eur/chf rallied sharply in Monday session, traders cited part of the reason was on a large increase in the SNB's sight deposits. 

Bloomberg reported sight deposits at the SNB increased nearly 8% last week, suggesting the central bank continued to buy foreign currency after it abandoned its cap on the franc.

Sight deposits of domestic banks increased to 365.5 bln francs in the week ending January 23 from 339.6 bln francs a week earlier, data published on the SNB’s website Monday showed.

Today SNB’s Vice Chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine, (he said 2 week ago on Monday the central bank would maintain the peg but 3 days later, SNB unpegged the franc cap) he said in an interview on Tuesday the SNB is ready to intervene in the foreign currency market to ease monetary policy after ditching its cap on the Swiss franc earlier this month.
Dantine told Swiss national daily TagesAnzeiger “Giving up the cap means a tightening of monetary policy. We accept this, but only up to a point. We are fundamentally prepared to intervene in the FX market.”

He then said it would take some time for the FX markets to balance out, but declined to give exact levels, saying the central bank was not only looking at the exchange rate with the euro but also with the dollar.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2015[/B] [I]08:10GMT[/I]

[B]USD/CHF[/B] - ..... The Swiss franc weakens broadly in early European trading, price just hit fresh 2-week high of 0.9322 after Reuters news reported SNB's sight deposits rose 'again' to 383 bln CHF in the week ending Jan 30 vs 365 bln CHF a week earlier. 

This morning in addition to a sharp gap-down open in dlr/yen, dlr/chf & eur/chf also gapped higher in hectic trading in thin NZ/AUD morning sessions Monday.
Reuters reported the SNB, which last month scrapped the cap it had imposed on the value of the franc, is unofficially targeting an exchange rate of 1.05-1.10 francs per euro, a Swiss newspaper reported on Sunday, citing sources close to the bank.

A spokesman for the central bank declined to comment on the story, published in the Schweiz am Sonntag newspaper. Citing unnamed sources close to the bank, the paper said the SNB was operating “a kind of minimum exchange rate against the euro”.

“The talk is of a ‘corridor’ from 1.05 francs to 1.10 francs,” the paper said. It also cited a well-informed source as saying the bank would incur losses of up to 10 bln francs, without giving a time frame.
Three days after his shock policy announcement, SNB President Thomas Jordan was asked in a newspaper interview if the bank could bring the policy back in another form. “We take account of exchange rates as a whole. And if the need arises, we will be active in the FX market,” he said at the time.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Feb 2015[/B] [I]00:09GMT[/I]

[B]USD/CHF[/B] - ....... A piece of chf-bearish news which came out over the weekend which has not yet been reacted by the market. 

The Swiss National Bank is prepared to intervene in foreign exchange markets and has room to lower already negative interest rates if necessary to weaken the franc, the central bank’s chairman said.
“We are observing the exchange rate situation as a whole,” Thomas Jordan told Swiss radio station SRF in an interview broadcast on Saturday. “If necessary we are active but as I said we do not speak about our transactions.”

Jordan said it was important the SNB say nothing about possible transactions so that the central bank can have the biggest impact if it is required to intervene in the currency market.
Figures on monthly currency reserves and weekly sight deposits indicate the SNB is still actively curbing the franc, and a Swiss newspaper has reported that the central bank is unofficially targeting an exchange rate of 1.05-1.10 francs per euro.

Jordan said the negative interest rates are having a “strong impact” to make the franc less attractive, and signaled the central bank has room to push rates lower.
“There is certainly a limit for negative interest rates, but the question is where exactly that limit is,” Jordan said.
"However, I believe at the current level of -0.75%, the limit certainly isn’t reached yet."
Jordan said it was too early say exactly what impact removing the cap would have on the Swiss economy, but that growth n inflation would be lower than the SNB had previously forecast.

[B]This week will see the release of: [/B]

Japan’s Current Account, Consumer Confidence, Economy Watchers, China’s Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Germany’s Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, euro zone’s Sentix Index, Canada’s House Starts [B]on Monday. [/B]

Japan’s Tertiary Industry Index, Australia’s Home Price Index, NAB Business Conditions, China’s CPI, PPI, Switzerland’s Unemployment, CPI, France’s Industrial Output, Italy’s Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail Sales, Industrial Output, Manufacturing Output, U.S. Redbook, Wholesale sales and Wholesale inventories [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

Japan Market Holiday, Australia’s Westpac Confidence, France Current Account, U.K.'s BoE quarterly inflation report, U.S. Federal Budget [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

Japan’s Corp Goods Price, Machinery Orders, U.K. RICS Housing Survey, Australia’s Employment, Unemployment, Germany’s CPI, HICP, euro zone’s Industrial Production, Canada’s New Housing Price Index, U.S.'s Retail sales, Business Inventories [B]on Thursday. [/B]

France’s GDP, Non-Farm Payrolls, Switzerland’s Producer/Import Price, Italy’s GDP, U.K. Construction O/P, euro zone’s Trade Balance, Canada’s Manufacturing Sales, U.S.'s Export Prices, Import Prices, University of Michigan Sentiment [B]on Friday.[/B]

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Mar 2015 [/B] [I]08:33GMT[/I]

[B]USD/CHF -[/B] ...... SNB keeps its benchmark rate unchanged at -0.25% and says, quote:

‘Swiss franc is significantly overvalued and should continued to weaker over time;
will continue to take account of the exchange rate situation, and its impact o inflation n economic developments, in formulating its monetary policy;
will therefore remain active in fx mkt, as necessary, in order to influence monetary conditions;
noticeable weakening in the economy may be expected, particularly in the first half of the year.’

Earlier Dlr pares yesterday’s sharp sell off in Thursday’s trading and is maintaining a firm undertone ahead of SNB rate announcement at 08:30GMT.

Reuters reported the Swiss gov’t cut its growth forecasts for this year and next after the Swiss National Bank removed its cap on the franc, but said there were no signs of a severe slowdown.

“Seen from the today’s viewpoint Switzerland may experience a temporary economic slowdown,” economists at the State Secretariat for Economics (SECO) said in a statement on Thursday.
“However, in the current environment there are no signs of any sharp downturn ? with a marked fall in economic activity and sharp rise in unemployment.”

It saw the economy expanding 0.9% this year and 1.8% in 2016. Before the cap ended, it had expected growth of 2.1% this year n 2.4% next year, but warned last month that a soaring franc would hurt economic growth and lead it to lower its predictions.
It forecast consumer prices would fall 1.0% this year before rising 0.3% in 2016.
The forecasts come shortly before Switzerland’s central bank convenes for its first regular monetary policy meeting since abandoning the franc cap in Jan n allowing the currency to float freely.

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
01 Jun 2015 [/B] [I]02:00GMT[/I]

[B]USD/CHF[/B] - ..... the Swiss National Bank's chairman has told on Sunday a Swiss newspaper on the Swiss franc being too strong and  should be weaken , adding that the bank was ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets if necessary, to influence the currency. 

“The franc is significantly overvalued and should therefore weaken over time,” Thomas Jordan said in a discussion with readers of Schweiz am Sonntag."
“In addition, we have emphasized we will become active in foreign exchange markets if required,” Jordan said.

The SNB abruptly abandoned a 1.20 francs per euro cap on Jan. 15, sending the currency soaring and raising concerns about Switzerland’s export-reliant economy.

It has replaced the cap with negative interest rates and a charge on major cash deposits held with the central bank.

This week will see the release of Japan’s capital spending, Australia’s TD-MI inflation gauge, China’s NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Australia’s building approvals, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China’s HSBC manufacturing final PMI, German, eurozone and U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany’s CPI and HICP, U.S. PCE price index, Markit service PMI and ISM manufacturing PMI [B]on Monday. [/B]

Australia’s current account deficit, RBA rate decision and rate statement, Germany’s unemployment rate, U.K. Markit/CIPS construction PM, mortgage approvals and mortgage lending, eurozone inflation, producer prices, U.S. Redbook, durable goods and factory orders [B]on Tuesday.[/B]

Australia’s GDP, China’s HSBC services PMI, U.K. Nationwide house price, Germany’s Markit services PMI, eurozone Markit services PMI final, U.K. Markit/CIPS services PMI, eurozone unemployment rate, retail sales and ECB rate decision and news conference, U.S. international trade, Canada’s exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

Australia’s trade balance and retail sales, Bank of England interest rate decision, U.S. initial jobless claims and Canada’s Ivey PMI [B]on Thursday. [/B]

Japan’s leading indicator, Germany’s factory orders, U.K. consumer inflation expectations, eurozone revised GDP, U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, Canada’s employment change, labour productivity rate [B]on Friday.[/B]

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
18 Jun 2015[/B] [I]08:00GMT[/I]

[B]USD/CHF[/B] - ...... Dlr recovered after a brief fall below Asian fresh 4-week trough at 0.9195 to 0.9191 in European morning after SNB announced to keep interest rate unchanged at -0.25% in Jun n its following comments from SNB, he maitains its LIBOR rate at -0.25% n says, quote:

‘new conditional inflation forecast does not differ greatly fm the one we presented in Mar;
forecast continued to indicate that inflation will move back into positive territory at the beginning of 2017;
global economy is expected to gather pace again, reinforced by expansionary monetary policy around the world n ongoing low oil prices;
uncertainty about the future development of the global economy remains high;
various risks - first n foremost the difficult financial situation in Greece n geopolitical tensions - cud jeopardise the recovery;
upturn in demand for Swiss products will cushion the impact of the exchange rate shock somewhat.’
‘central bank does not expect sustained price decline or deflationary spiral;
Swiss franc very unlikely to remain persistently high;
Franc continues to serve as safe haven in light of uncertainty surrounding Greece;
Switzerland must accept challenging economic conditions for now.’

Last Update At 24 Jul 2015 00:36GMT

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Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

0.9719 - Apr 23 high
0.9697 - 100% measure. of 0.9150-0.9517 fm 0.9333
0.9651 - Tue’s high

0.9526 - Y’day’s low
0.9503 - Reaction low fm 0.9550
0.9475 - Hourly res (now sup)

. USD/CHF - 0.9594… The greenback remained under pressure in Asia y’day n briefly tumbled to session low at 0.9526 in European morning on euro’s rally, however, price later rose to 0.9604 on upbeat US data n buying in eur/chf cross.

. As mentioned in previous update, last week’s rally abv May’s 0.9545 high confirms erratic upmove fm 0.9072 (May low) has resumed after 1-1/2 months of sideways trading n price is en route to 0.9725, this is the ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r of recent fall fm 1.0129 (Mar high), abv there would encourage for further headway twd next chart obj. at 0.9863 (Apr high). Having said that, dlr’s strg retreat fm 0.9651 to 0.9526 y’day suggests aforesaid rise fm 0.9072 has made a temporary top there n several days of consolidation is in store b4 prospect of upmove to indicated upside targets later. Therefore, buying on dips is favoured n only a daily close below 0.9503 sup would risk stronger retracement to 0.9430, this is a ‘minimum’ 38.2% r of said rise fm 0.9072 but 0.9330 should hold.

. Today, dlr’s erratic rise fm 0.9526 to 0.9604 near NY close suggests the pullback fm 0.9651 has possibly ended, abv 0.9633 would add credence to this view n yield re-test of 0.9651, then twd next chart obj. at 0.9719 next week.

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
17 Sep 2015[/B] [I]07:33GMT[/I]

[B]USD/CHF [/B]- .......SNB Comments: 
  • target range of 3-month LIBOR unchanged at -1.25% to -0.25%
  • the Swiss Franc is still significantly overvalued, despite a slight depreciation
    the negative interest rates in Switzerland and the SNB willingness to intervene as required in the foreign exchange market make investments in Swiss Francs less attractive;
  • global economic recovery to continue
  • global economic recovery is fraught with risks
  • uncertainty regarding economic developments in China has increased perceptibly
  • the agreement of a new bailout programme for Greece has soothed concerns over an escalation of the sovereign debt crisis for the time being
  • renewed turbulence in the international financial markets could have a major impact on global monetary policy
  • despite the fact that output remained stable overall following the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in the first half of the year, the situation remains challenging for many companies
  • companies are under pressure to raise efficiency and reduce costs
  • expects economic activity to pick up gradually in the second half of the year
  • domestic demand is likely to further support the economy
  • if the international environment continues to improve and the overvaluation of the Swiss Franc eases, exports should once again make a greater contribution to economic growth

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/CHF)
17 Mar 2016

USD/CHF - ...... The Swiss government on Thursday trimmed its growth forecasts for this year and next year due to a weaker global economic outlook. 

Swiss economic growth for 2016 is now seen at 1.4 percent in 2016 compared to a forecast in December of 1.5 percent, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said. It sees 2017 growth at 1.8 percent compared to 1.9 percent previously.

SECO said in a statement the the negative exchange rate effects are expected to gradually diminish in the course of 2016 and 2017, and in contrast, the international economic context has lost momentum in recent quarters and there is no clear sign of a marked acceleration of global growth.
SECO cut its inflation forecast for this year to -0.6 percent from -0.1 percent. It still expects consumer prices to start rising again in 2017, forecasting inflation of 0.2 percent, unchanged from December.

The forecasts come ahead of the Swiss National Bank giving its quarterly policy assessment at 0830 GMT.

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Nov 2016

USD/CHF - ...... Although dlr climbed a fresh 8-month high of 1.0105 in Asia today, the SNB were expressing their dismay over recent Franc's strength vs the euro. Reuters reported in NY afternoon Thursday the Swiss National Bank is active in the currency markets around the clock to check upwards pressure on the Swiss franc which remains "significantly overvalued", governing board member Andrea Maechler said on Thursday. 

The central bank has increased its expertise in the foreign exchange markets and electronic trading in recent years, Maechler told a money market event in Geneva & it been selling francs in the foreign exchange markets this year, with sight deposits - seen as a proxy for its interventions - rising to record levels.

The bank’s foreign currency assets ballooned to 666 billion Swiss francs ($663.61 billion) at the end of September, a rise of 31 percent since the bank scrapped its currency limit of 1.20 francs to the euro in January 2015.
It confirmed it was active in the markets after Britain’s vote to quit the European Union in June, although it declined to comment on speculation it had entered the market after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election this month.

Governing board alternate member Dewet Moser suggested there were limits to how far the SNB could intervene.
The SNB charges banks 0.75 percent on excess deposits to help ward off interest in the franc, which is sought as a safe haven by investors in times of economic uncertainty.

Almost all Swiss banks have so far held off from imposing negative rates on retail customers, although PostFinance last week said it would start charging private customers for deposits of more than 1 million francs.
Maechler defended the policy, saying the SNB’s negative interest rates and foreign currency interventions were "two mutually reinforcing measures, which are having the desired effect.