AceTraderFx Nov 11: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Trading Discussion Currencies
1

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

11 Nov 2014 [/B] [I]02:08GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Dlr pares intra-day gain after an initial brief rise to 115.01 but offers at 115.00/10 capped upside and pushed price back down to 113.64.

Although dlr showed muted reaction to a sharply higher trade surplus (September surplus was 963 bln yen vs forecast of 534 bln, this represents a near 62% jump vs the same period in 2013) as yesterday’s another record closings in the Dow & S&P 500 boosted risk sentiment, prompting another round of yen selling but 115.00 res seems to a tough nut to crack.

Looks like range trading is in store n teh strong bounce from yesterday’s 113.86 low in Europe suggests consolidation with upside bias remains. Offers are reported at 115.00/10 with stops above there, more selling interest is noted below Friday’s 7-year peak at 115.62.
On the downside, bids are noted at 114.60 and more at 114.45/40 and more below with stops touted below 113.80.

Earlier Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s approval rating fell in a public opinion poll published on Mon amid speculation the gov’t is considering calling a snap election.
National broadcaster NHK surveyed 1,527 people and found support for Abe’s gov’t had fallen 8 percentage points from last month to 44%, the lowest since Abe’s gov’t began 2 years ago.
Of those surveyed, 38% said they disapproved of Abe, up 4 percentage points from last month.

Abe’s popularity has been sliding since 2 members of his cabinet resigned last month over political scandals. Abe also has to decide before the end of the year whether to raise the sales tax next year and some media are reporting that he could delay this plan and call an election.
[B]
Tuesday[/B] will see the release of Japan trade balance, current account, tertiary industry index, Australia home price index, NAB business confidence. France, Canada and U.S. markets will be closed on Tuesday due to holiday.

2

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

13 Nov 2014 [/B] [I]02:18GMT[/I]

 [B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... After taking centre stage by swinging wildly in Asia, European & NY sessions on Wednesday, the greenback has moved narrowly in relatively subdued Tokyo morning trading as the absence of market-moving comments by Japanese official(s) has kept price moving sideways.

Dlr showed muted reaction to early release of Japan’s machinery orders which showed an unexpected rise of 2.9% in September vs forecast of a drop of 1.9%. However, for those who like to trade on comments/news, keep an eye on breaking news from Reuters/Bloomberg when BoJ Governor Kuroda appears before the Japanese parliament at 04:40GMT.

Despite yesterday’s brief drop to 114.85 (Reuters) in NY morning, subsequent strong bounce in NY afternoon on renewed dlr’s broad-based strength suggests consolidation with mild upside bias is in store, however, as the Nikkei is trading well below yesterday’s fresh 7-year peak at 17443 (currently at 17225), range trading should continue.
Offers are noted at 115.70/75 n more above with stops reported above 116.10. Initial bids are noted at 115.40-30 n more below with stops building below 114.80.

Japan Chief Gov’t spokesman: decline to comment on some views that next sales tax hike should be delayed by a year and a half. To hike or not to hike (sales tax), Japanese officials have kept the market guessing.

The WSJ reported Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe will likely decide next week to postpone an unpopular sales-tax increase, judging that the country’s economy is too weak to withstand the burden, n call a general election to seek public support for his economic program, a top Abe administration official said on Wednesday.

Abe’s aides are preparing for an election campaign next month that will stress growth over fiscal austerity, weighing the likelihood that data due next Mon will show growth in the Jul-to-Sep quarter was below 2% on an annualized basis, the gov’t official said. “We want to seek a mandate to push ahead with Abenomics, with the growth policy,” said the official, adding that any election would likely come on Dec. 14 or Dec. 21.

Abe has said he would decide on the sales-tax increase in Dec after considering Jul-to-Sep GDP figures, suggesting he would wait until a revision to the GDP data is released Dec. 8. On Tue, he reiterated that view n said he hasn’t “decided on the timing” of an election.

The official said the PM’s aides were preparing an election platform that, in addition to delaying the sales-tax rise, would call for a greater cut in corporate taxes than Abe has pledged so far.

Amamiya says ‘BoJ’s current QQE programme is open-ended, not deadline set; BoJ won’t hold off on taking steps to hit its price target just because of worries over risks of hurting its balance sheet;
see no need to worry about risk of triggering hyper-inflation with BoJ’s policy, which aimed at achieving 2 pct inflation.’

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of Japan CGPI, machinery orders, industrial output, capacity utilization, China industrial output, retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss PPI, Italy CPI, Canada housing price index, U.S. jobless claims and Federal budget.

3

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Nov 2014 [/B] [I]01:32GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... The pair continues to take centre stage in hectic Tokyo trading as comments by Japan's ECONMIN Amari (see early MMN) led to renewed broad-based selling in the yen, intra-day gain to fresh 7-year highs in the Nikkei (N255 index rose to 17520) boosted risk sentiment and pushed price to a fresh 7-year peak at 116.20 after tripping stops above 115.90, then 116.10.

However, intra-day retreat in the Nikkei has prompted liquidation in speculative longs, dlr retreated to 115.89, suggesting choppy trading below 116.20 would be seen.
Initial bids are noted at 115.90-85 with stops below there, more buying interest is reported at 115.60-55 with stops below yesterday’s NY low at 115.21.
On the upside, offers are reported at 116.10/20 and more at 116.40/50.

Statement from Japan’s Chief Gov’t Spokesman Yoshihide Suga (Chief Cabinet Sec) says Japan economy in recovery trend through gov’t’s economic policies.

While Japan FinMin Aso comment:
economy continuing a moderate recovery on the whole;
gov’t must continue with efforts on fiscal reform;
private consumption stalling but employment, incomes investment improving; it would be become hard to halve primary budget deficit in FY2015/16 as planned if sales tax hike delayed.‘
Japan sales tax hike is delayed, gov’t may need to consider if economic stimulus steps are needed;
rising sales tax and delaying sales tax hike both carry risks, up to gov’t to take steps to reduce these risks;
if Abe delays sales tax hike, he will do utmost to achieve primary budget deficit reduction targets;
not possible Abe to delay sales tax hike indefinitely; cannot allow trust in Japanese gov’t debt to be damaged.’

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of France GDP, Germany GDP, Italy GDP, UK construction output, EU GDP, CPI, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, business inventories, U. of Michigan sentiment and Canada manufacturing sales.

4

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

17 Nov 2014[/B] [I]01:45GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Despite a brief jump above Fri's 116.82 top to a fresh 7-year high of 117.06 after Japan's Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted, intra-day sell off in the Nikkei (N225 fell from 17409 to 17133) triggered broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion in Asia.

Reuters reported Japan’s economy unexpectedly slipped into recession in Q3, setting the stage for PM Shinzo Abe to delay an unpopular sales tax hike n call a snap election just 2 years after he took office.

GDP fell at an annualised 1.6% pace in July-September period, after it plunged 7.3% in the 2nd quarter following a rise in the national sales tax.
The economy had been forecast to rebound by 2.1% in the 3rd quarter.

Abe had said he would look at the data when deciding whether to press ahead with a 2nd increase in the sales tax to 10% in October next year, as part of a plan to curb Japan’s huge public debt, the worst among advanced nations.

Japanese media have said the PM, who returns from a week-long tour to China, Myanmar and Australia on Monday, could announce his decision to delay the hike as early as Tuesday and states his intention to call a poll, which ruling party lawmakers expect to be held on Dec. 14.

Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Abe who opposes the tax rise, has said that if growth was under 3.8%, raising the tax rate would be “out of the question”.

[B]This week will see the release of the following economic data: [/B]

New Zealand retail sales, Japan’s GDP, U.K. Rightmove house price, EU eurostat trade, U.S. New York Empire state manufacutring, ECB Draghi’s speech, U. S. industrial production [B]on Monday; [/B]

Australia’s CB leading indicator, Westpac leading index and RBA meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. PPI, Redbook, NAHB housing market index, net L-T flows, overall net capital flows and foreign buys [B]on Tuesday;[/B]

BoJ interest rate decision, EU current account, BoE MPC Vote outcome, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. building permits, housing starts, FOMC minutes [B]on Wednesday;[/B]

Japan’s export, imports, trade balance and manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, BoJ monthly economic survey, Germany’s producer prices ad Markit service PMI, EU Markit PMI, U.K. retail sales, CBI trade, Canada’s wholesale trade, U.S. CPI, Markit manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales, leading index change and consumer confidence [B]on Thursday; [/B]

U.K. PSNCR and Canada CPI [B]on Friday.[/B]

5

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Nov 2014[/B] [I]08:06GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Although the greenback fell sharply from a fresh 7-year peak at 117.06 to as low as 115.48 in Asia on long-liquation and risk-off trade on the back of fall in Nikkei (N225 ended the day down 2.96% to 16973.80), price rebounded once the European traders entered the market and climbed back above 116.00 level in European morning.

Offers are noted at 116.15/20 and around 116.30 with mixture of offers and stops located at 116.50, whilst bids are placed at 115.80-70 and then 115.50 with stops emerging just below 115.46.

Japan EconMin Akira Amari said:
‘given state of economy, high chance PM Abe to decide some form of economic stimulus;
any stimulus package wud need to balance growth n fiscal discipline;
may be difficult to compile an exceptionally large stimulus package;
measures to help low-income households one option but up to PM Abe to decide stimulus details.’

Japan Chief gov’t spokesman says 'Abe to make decision tomorrow on economic measures.'
Also earlier Japan PM adviser Hamada said:
‘Japan economy a little bit unstable;
April consumption tax hike negative direction for Abenomics;
important for Japan to cut corporate tax to attract foreign investors and keep Japanese investors;
sees some signs gov’t is seriously considering sales tax hike delay;
sales tax should be gradually raised.’

6

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

19 Nov 2014[/B] [I]01:28GMT[/I]
[B]USD/JPY[/B] - … Dlr swung wildly on Tuesday following Japan PM Abe said to dissolve parliament and postpone next year’s sales tax hike.
Despite a brief sell off but sharp sell off from 117.05 to 116.35 after the announcement, speculation for new stimulus measures from BoJ after 2-day meeting on Wednesday pushed price higher in NY and dlr eventually rose to a fresh 7-year peak at 117.21 in Tokyo morning b4 retreating.

Today’s focus in Asia will be on the BoJ’s monetary policy announcement n then the conference in Asian midday.
BOJ board may call for a bleaker view to be given this time, however, any signs that Kuroda’s conviction about the recovery is wavering may spur speculation of more easing early next year.

As dlr has resumed its recent strong ascent in Asia, buying on dips is recommended.
Bids are noted at 116.80-70 with mixture of bids and stops located at 116.55/50 and 116.25/20.
On the upside, offers are placed at 117.20-30 and further out at 117.50-60 with stops emerging above 117.80.

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of BoJ interest rate decision, EU current account, BoE MPC Vote outcome, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. building permits, housing starts and FOMC minutes.

7

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Nov 2014[/B] [I]02:00GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Dlr went through a roller coaster session on Thursday as despite an initial rally to a fresh 7-year peak at 118.98 shortly European open, selling interest located below 119.00 level knocked price lower ahead of NY open.

The greenback eventually fell to 117.74 in NY morning after release of worse-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and soft inflation data before rebounding to 118.32 due to upbeat U.S. existing home sales figures.
Dlr briefly climbed to 118.37 in Friday Tokyo morning and then tumbled to 117.45 on risk aversion due to intra-day fall in Nikkei (currently down 0.9% to 17144) and comments from Japan FinMin Aso (see our prev. MMN).

Although dlr’s intra-day sell off below 117.74 support signals further choppy trading below yesterday’s top at 118.98 would continue and selling on recovery is recommended, price may find support near 117.00 level as growing divergence of economic and monetary policy developments between the U.S. and Japan should continue to provide support to the pair.

Bids are noted 117.40-30 n then 117.10-00 with mixture of bids and stops emerging just below 117.00.
On the upside, offers from various accounts are placed at 117.90/00, 118.20-30 and more near 118.50 level.

[B]Friday[/B] will release U.K. PSNCR and Canada CPI.

8

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Nov 2014[/B] [I]01:37GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- 118.06... Despite dlr's brief rise above NY res at 118.48 to 118.57 ahead of Asian open at the beginning of release of BoJ meeting minutes, price retreated subsequently as the minutes showed 4 out of the 9 BoJ board members were opposed to conducting additional easy policy because they worried about side-effects after expanding an aggressive easing program.

Dlr’s intra-day fall accelerated after comments from BoJ’s Governor Kuroda and then tanked to 117.80 before recovering.

Although broad-day buying of yen in Tokyo morning suggests selling dlr/yen pair on recovery is recommended, investors can look to book profit on next intra-day fall as last Friday’s bottom at 117.36 (reaction low from 119.98 top) is expected to hold ahead of the speech from BOJ deputy governor Nakaso at 04:00GMT, followed by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda press conference at 04:45GMT.

Offers from various accounts are noted at 118.15/20 and then 118.30-40 with mixture of offers and stops located at 118.55-65.
On the downside, bids are placed at 117.70/65, 117.55/50 with stops emerging just below 117.30.

[B]Tuesday [/B]will see the release of Japan’s BoJ meeting minutes, New Zealand’s RBNZ inflation expectation, German GDP, U.S. prelimary GDP, PCE prices and Redbook, Canada’s retail sales and U.S. monthly home price and consumer confidence.

9

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Nov 2014[/B] [I]02:00GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]-....... Dlr weakened vs the Japanese yen on Tuesday after volatile sessions. Although price has rebounded after early sell off from 118.57 to 117.70 in Asia due to BoJ meeting minutes n comments from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who voiced concerns over the impact of the weaker yen on the economy, price briefly jumped to 118.30 in NY morning after upbeat U.S. Q3 GDP (prelim.).

Later, dlr retreated to 117.72 in NY afternoon following the release of disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and then further to 117.67 in Wednesday’s Tokyo morning.

Although intra-day’s weakness in Asia suggests choppy trading with mild downside bias remains, sharp fall below 117.36 (Fri’s reaction low from last Thursday’s fresh 7-year peak at 118.98) is not envisaged as investors are awaiting the release of a slew of U.S. economic reports in NY morning.

At present, offers are noted at 118.00-10 and then 118.25/30 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above 118.60.
On the downside, bids are placed at 117.40-30 and around 117.10 with stops located just below 117.00.

[B]
Wednesday[/B] will see the release of German import prices U.S. GDP and CBI distributive trades, U.S. core PCE, durables, personal income, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales, pending homes sales change and building permits.

10

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Nov 2014[/B]
[B]USD/JPY[/B] - … Earlier BoJ board member Sayuri Shirai who was speaking in a news conference after meeting with business leaders in Hiroshima (West Japan) said, quote:
‘BoJ deployed maximum scale of easing it can deliver on Oct. 31, now need to scrutinise data for time being;
weak Q3 GDP data made me convinced BoJ eased at most appropriate timing on Oct. 31.’
‘Japan CPI may slip below 1% for several months, including in Oct;
inflation has slowed more than expected, some indicators also showed fall in inflation expectations;
hard to end deflation once economy slips into it;
BoJ acted last month as central banks cannot leave unattended falls in prices, inflation expectations;
Q3 GDP data showed recovery in consumption slower than expected;
there’s a chance Japan’s economic growth may turn negative in fiscal 2014 but data since Sept has brightened;
no change in BoJ’s stance it won’t ease policy incrementally;
won’t automatically ease monetary policy just because economy undershoots our expectations;
can’t deploy such radical policy like QQE so many times, though only monetary policy can accelerate inflation to 2%;
BoJ’s inflation target is a flexible one, not bound by rigid deadline.’

11

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Nov 2014[/B] [I] 02:41GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- … The greenback jumped above 118.00 level to 118.28 against the yen in Tokyo morning on Friday in reaction to rebound in the Nikkei after plunge in oil prices Thur when OPEC kept oil output unchanged (WTI crude oil price was last seen down $5.09 or 6.91% to $68.60, below $70.0 the first time since May 2010) which would benefit the Japanese economy as importer of energy.

As dlr’s strong rebound from yesterday’s low at 117.24 n the subsequent move back above 118.00 suggest correction from last Thursday’s 7-year peak at 118.98 has ended there, buying dlr on dips is favoured as dlr may head towards 118.98 next week.

At present, bids are noted at 118.00-117.90 and around 117.70 with mixture of bids and stops located just below 117.50.
On the upside, offers are placed at 118.30-40 and then 118.50 with stops emerging further out 118.70.

Yesterday despite early brief dropped to an intra-day low of 117.25 in European morning due to the weakness in Nikkei-225 index which closed down by 135 points to 17249, The pair ratcheted higher on active short-covering anf rebounded to 117.79.

[B]Friday [/B]will see the release of Japan’s unemployment rate, CPI, prelimary industrial output, IP forecast, retails sales, New Zealand’s NBNZ business outlook U.S. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan’s construction orders, housing starts, Swiss KOF indicator, EU inflation and unemployment rate, Canada’s GDP and producer prices.

12

[B]
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

01 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:02GMT[/I]
[B]USD/JPY [/B]- 118.83 … U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 7-year high of 119.02 against the Japanese yen on amid growing concerns over deflationary pressure in Japan due to the sell off in crude oil prices together with the release of weaker-than-expected China manufacturing PMI data.
Bids are now located at 118.70-60 and more at 118.50 whilst some offers are tipped at 119.00 and 119.20-30.

Statements from Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga says capital spending is on rising trend on back of firm corporate earnings;
expect CAPEX will continue to rise;
will monitor FX movements.

Last Friday closing the greenback rallied to as high as 118.76 against the Japanese yen on dlr’s broad-based strength together with active cross selling in yen especially versus euro.
Bids were then located at 118.50, 118.35/30 and more at 118.10-00.
On the upside, offers were tipped at 118.90/95 with stops building up above 119.00.

13

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

02 Dec 2014[/B] [I]01:53GMT[/I]
[B]USD/JPY [/B]- … Although U.S. dollar rose briefly to a fresh 7-year peak of 119.15 yesterday after Moody’s cut Japan’s sovereign ratings, the pair a dramatic reversal due to a broad-based rebound in commodity prices and dlr weakened to 117.88 in NY before staging another rebound due to upbeat comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer who gave dollar bulls some confidence.

U.S. dollar ratcheted higher to 118.46 on short-covering, however, renewed selling interest is tipped below 118.50 and more offers are located at 118.70-80 with stops only seen above 119.00.
On the downside, some bids are located at 118.10-00 with stops seen below 117.88.

Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato says will continue to monitor JGB market n take appropriate debt management steps as needed; many market participants praise PM’s commitment to not delay sales tax hike again; PM will present specific fiscal consolidation plan by summer next year.

[B]Tuesday [/B]will see the release of Australia’s Building Approvals and Current Account Deficit, RBA rate decision and statement, UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, eurozone Producer Prices, US Redbook and Construction Spending.

14

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:01GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- 119.33 ... The greenback rallied to a fresh 7-year high at 119.44 in Tokyo morning on improved risk appetite due to the rally in global stock markets together with the release of slightly better-than-expected China's HSBC services PMI which came in at 53.0 versus previous reading of 52.9. Nikkei-225 currently rises by 199 points to 17862 following the 102 points rise in Dow Jones index on Tuesday.

Bids are now located at 119.15-10, 119.00 n more at 118.80. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 119.40-50, 119.70-80 n more at 120.00 (sizeable).

Yesterday, the NY morning despite a brief pullback fm a fresh 119.28 to 119.04, dlr had risen again n rose 1-pip higher to a fresh 7-year peak at 119.29. Although dlr maintained a firm bias after intra-day resumption of LT uptrend, as investors showed muted reaction to the release of upbeat U.S. construction spending data, suggesting sharp gain was not likely to be seen n price shud falter well below psychological res at 120.00, yield retreat later. U.S. Oct construction spending came at +1.1%, higher than expectation of 0.6% n also the highest lvl since May.

[B]Wednesday[/B] will see the release of Australia’s GDP, China’s NBS Non-Mfg PMI and HSBC Services PMI, Swiss GDP, Germany’s Markit Services PMI, eurozone Markit Services Final PMI, UK Markit/CIPS Serv PMI, eurozone Retail Sales, US ADP National Employment, Productivity Revised, Markit Comp Final PMI, ISM Non-Mfg PMI, Bank of Canada Rate Decision and statement, US Fed’s Beige Book.

15

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Dec 2014[/B] [I]01:32GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ...... BoJ board member Takehero Sata who is speaking at a meeting with business leaders in Kochi quoting his speech by Reuters :

-efforts to restore fiscal health important when BoJ seeks o exit QQE;
-success of QQE hinges on govt’s commitment to fiscal reform;
-have proposed making BoJ’s price target a flexible one with room for some allowance;
-BoJ’s tools to respond ltd if concern over govt’s commitment heightens, raises risk premium in JGB market;
-prices reflect state of economy n are not a variable that can be controlled by a central bank;
-what’s important is not to focus on monthly fluctuations of CPI but to scrutinise wide range of data in forward-looking manner;
-dissented fm Oct 31 easing as virtuous cycle of eco. activity n prices was basically intact;
-marginal effect of expanding QQE won’t be large given nominal interest rates already at historically low levels;
-must watch whether BoJ’s asset buying creates distortions on eco. activity or accumulation of financial imbalances;
-there is uncertainty on whether global growth will steadily heighten IMF projects;
-must be mindful of risk of Europe experiencing prolonged low inflation or slipping into deflation;
-expect Japan’s economy to recover moderately as a trend as exports have stopped falling;
-risk to Japan’s economy are exports, effect of weak yen on domestic demand, n outlook of household, business sentiment;
-Japan’s CPI growth may stall around middle of next year given commodity price moves;
-commodity price falls positive for Japan’s economy, will push up overall prices in long run.

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of Australia’s Retail Sales and Trade Balance, UK Halifax house prices, Swiss Industrial Orders, BOE rate decision, ECB rate decision, ECB press conference, US Initial jobless claims, Canada’s Ivey PMI.

16

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

08 Dec 2014[/B] [I]00:48GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ..... Although dlr climbed to a fresh 7-year peak of 121.85 ahead of Tloyo open on Mon, release of downbeat revision in Japan's Q3 GDP triggered buying of yen on risk aversion.

Reuters reported Japan’s economic contraction in Jul-Sep was deeper than initially expected on declines in capital expenditure, according to revised data on Mon that backs PM Shinzo Abe’s recent decision to delay a 2nd sales tax hike.

The data indicated that the hit fm Apr’s sales tax hike turned out to be bigger than expected.

Abe, who has called a snap poll for Sun, hopes voters will agree that his stimulus policies n a decision to delay a 2nd sales tax hike next year will revive a sputtering economy.

The key factor behind the downgrade was a 0.4% decrease in capital expenditure, which was revised from a preliminary 0.2% fall after incorporating last week’s upbeat corporate capital spending survey.

On Apr 1, Japan’s sales tax increased to 8% fm 5%. After that hit household spending n led to Nov. 17’s dismal preliminary GDP data showing the economy was in recession, Abe postponed a 2nd tax hike to 10% by 18 months until Apr 2017.

The revised GDP data could be bad news for the BoJ, which will scrutinise it n other factors at a two-day rate review that ends on Fri. The central bank, which eased policy on Oct. 31, is widely expected to keep monetary settings unchanged and maintain its upbeat view of the economy.

Economists expect Japan to resume moderate growth in the current quarter on signs corporate and household spending are gradually recovering fm the pain caused by the Apr tax hike.

[B]This week[/B] will see the release of the following economic data:

Japan’s Reuters Tankan DI, GDP, Current account, Tertiary industry index, Economy Watchers Poll, UK’s BoE Quarterly Bulletin, China’s Trade Balance, Imports and Exports, Germany’s Industrial output, Switzerland’s CPI, EU’s Sentix Investment Confidence, Canada Housing starts, building permits, U.S. employment trends [B]on Monday[/B].

U.K.'s BRC retail sales, Australia NAB Business Confidence, NAB Business conditions, Switzerland’s unemployment rate, Germany’s Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, France’s Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Imports, Exports, U.K.'s Industrial output, Manufacturing Output, NIESR GDP Estimate, U.S.'s NFIB Business Optimism, Redbook, Wholesale inventories, Wholesale sales [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

New Zealand’s Government Monthly Debt, Government Optg Balance, Japan’s Business Survey Index, Corp Goods Price, Australia’s Housing Finance, Invest Housing Finance, China’s CPI, PPI, Japan’s Consumer Confidence, Machine tool orders, France’s non-farm payrolls, Industrial Output, U.K.'s Trade Balance, U.S. Federal Budget [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

New Zealand’s RBNZ rate decision, Japan’s Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia’s Employment, Unemployment rate, Germany’s CPI, HICP, France’s CPI, Switzerland’s SNB rate decision, Italy’s Industrial output, U.S.'s Export prices, Import prices, Retail sales, Initial jobless claims, Business inventories, Canada’s New Housing Price Index and Capacity Utilization [B]on Thursday. [/B]

New Zealand’s Manufacturing PMI, Japan’s Capacity Utilization Index Change, Industrial output, Chain’s Industrial output, retail sales, France’s Current account, Italy’s Consumer Prices, U.K.'s Construction O/P, EU’s employment, Industrial production, U.S.'s PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment Index [B]on Friday.[/B]

17

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

09 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:25GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ....... The greenback tumbled from yesterday's fresh 7-year high at 121.85 (AUS) to as low as 120.20 (NY) due to active long liquidations as Japan's Nikkei-225 index fell sharply following the decline in global stock markets.

Despite staging a brief recovery to 121.00 at Tokyo opening, selling interest there capped dlr’s upside somewhat.
Offers are now tipped at 120.90-00 and more at 121.20-30.
On the downside, some bids are located at 120.50 and 120.30-20.

Earlier statement statement from Japan FinMin, quote:
‘don’t think Japan in recession;
to stick to aim of achieving primary budget surplus in FY2020/21 although sales tax hike delay makes it harder to meet the target;
won’t comment on FX levels;
closely watching market moves.’
‘there are signs that wages will continue rising, allowing economy to withstand future tax hike;
decline in oil prices is likely to offset rise in import prices due to weak yen.’

[B]Tuesday [/B]will see the release of U.K.'s BRC retail sales, Australia NAB Business Confidence, NAB Business conditions, Switzerland’s unemployment rate, Germany’s Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, France’s Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Imports, Exports, U.K.'s Industrial output, Manufacturing Output, NIESR GDP Estimate, U.S.'s NFIB Business Optimism, Redbook, Wholesale inventories, Wholesale sales. EU finance ministers meet in Brussels.

18

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:01GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ....... Despite yesterday's sharp sell off from 121.00 to as low as 117.90 due to renew risk aversion on political instability in Greece together with the sell off in European equities, the greenback rebounded strongly in late NY on the rebound in U.S. stock markets.

The pair rose to 119.92 in Asian morning as Nikkei-225 index pared some of early losses.
Bids are now located at 119.70-65, 119.50 and more at 119.30.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 120.00 and 120.10-20.
On the data front, Japan will release its consumer confidence index at 05:00GMT.

    [B]AUD/USD[/B] - ........ Australian dollar fell in Asian morning after the release of lower-than-expected China's CPI and PPI data which came in at -0.2% m/m or 1.4% y/y and -2.7% y/y versus 0.0% m/m or 1.6% y/y and -2.4% y/y respectively.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:35GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ....... The greenback tumbled against the Japanese yen due to renewed risk aversion on the sell off in global stock markets. Nikkiei-225 index fell by more than 1% following Wednesday's 268 points drop in Dow Jones index. The pair weakened to as low as 117.45 in Tokyo morning before rebounding strongly to 118.33 on short-covering.

Offers are now tipped at 118.20 and more at 118.30-40.
On the downside, some bids are located at 117.70 and 117.50.

Investors are now focusing on an election sweep for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this weekend.
Nikkei news reported this morning that Abe needs big margin of victory to retain influence, the LDP and Komeito held 326 out of 480 seats in the lower house before it was dissolved last month; following a slight trim, 475 seats will be up for grabs on December 14; LDP and Komeito leaders have set a joint goal of winning at least 270; they need 266 seats needed to guarantee majorities on all of the house? standing committees; a senior LDP election strategist reckons the party will win in 20 to 30 fewer districts than in 2012, but will pick up more seats determined by proportional representation; if Komeito manages to maintain its status quo ante of 31 seats, the coalition stands a good chance of taking 270 to 300 seats, give or take a few, says a senior LDP lawmaker.

[B]Thursday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia’s Employment, Unemployment rate, Germany’s CPI, HICP, France’s CPI, Switzerland’s SNB rate decision, Italy’s Industrial output, U.S.'s Export prices, Import prices, Retail sales, Initial jobless claims, Business inventories, Canada’s New Housing Price Index and Capacity Utilization.

20

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Dec 2014[/B] [I] 02:15GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ....... The greenback swung wildly against the Japanese yen on Thursday. Despite hitting a fresh 2-week low of 117.45 in Tokyo morning on Thursday, dollar ratcheted higher and rose to 119.56 on active short-covering due to the rebound in Nikkei-225 index following the rise in U.S. stock markets.

However, the sell off in crude oil prices (broke $60 per barrel) in late NY knocked price lower to 118.61.
Offers are now tipped at 119.10-20 and more at 119.40-50.
On the downside, some bids are located at 118.70-60 with stops seen below 118.50.

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand’s Manufacturing PMI, Japan’s Capacity Utilization Index Change, Industrial output, Chain’s Industrial output, retail sales, German Wholesale Price, France’s Current account, Italy’s Consumer Prices, U.K.'s Construction O/P, EU’s employment, Industrial production, U.S.'s PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment Index.