AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Trading Discussion Currencies
21

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Apr 2015[/B] [I]01:48GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ..... Cable showed muted reaction to release of downbeat U.K. data in Australia. Reuters reported Prices in British shops fell last month at the fastest rate since records began more than 8 years ago, pulled down by a sharp decline in food prices, the British Retail Consortium said on Wed.

The BRC said retail prices in March were 2.1% lower than a year earlier, marking the largest decline in shop prices since the series started in December 2006. Prices had fallen 1.7% in Feb.
Food prices declined 0.9%, the steepest drop on record, compared with a 0.4% fall the previous month.

The BRC said this boded well for the economy, with strong consumer confidence n falling prices likely to tempt Britons into spending on the high street. Consumer price inflation fell to zero in Feburary for the first time on record. Economists think it may have fallen below zero in March.

Yesterday although the British pound traded with a firm bias in Asia and gained to session high at 1.4920 at European open, price tumbled in tandem with euro to session low at 1.4830 in European morning. However, price pared its losses n rebounded to 1.4912 in NY morning before retreating again in NY afternoon to 1.4840.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

Japan current account, BoJ rate decision, BoJ policy statement, France exports, imports, trade balance, Swiss CPI, EU retail sales and U.S. FOMC minutes.

22

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Apr 2015[/B] [I]08:20GMT [/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Cable tumbled in European morning due to active cross-selling in sterling n price easily penetrated Tuesday's low at 1.4803 to 1.4769 after triggering stops which were located below 1.4800.

Although intra-day weakness suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen in European morning, sharp move from here is not unlikely as short-covering should emerge ahead of BoE monetary policy decision at 11:00GMT (although market expect it will be non-event).

Offers from various accounts are noted at 1.4800-10, 1.4825/30 and then 1.4840-50 with stops emerging above 1.4870, whilst bids are placed at 1.4750-40 and then 1.4730-20 with stops located just below 1.4700.

The British house price growth rebounded in monthly terms during March but slowed further on an annual basis, according to a survey from mortgage lender Halifax on Thursday.
Halifax said house prices rose 0.4% in Mar from Feb, compared with a forecast for a rise of 0.2% in a Reuters poll. Prices had declined by 0.4% in Feb, a sharper fall than first estimated.
Prices in the 3 months to March were 8.1% higher than they were a year earlier, compared with an increase of 8.3% in the 3 months to Feb n below a peak of more than 10% in mid-2014.

23

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Apr 2015 [/B] [I]02:34GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD -[/B] ....... Cable rebounded strongly on Thursday after a brief drop to 1.4960 in Europe after U.K. retail sales missed estimates. Despite subsequent rally to session high of 1.5070 in NY afternoon, selling interest below Wednesday's 5-week peak at 1.5080 capped intra-day gain at 1.5070 n price subsequently retreated to 1.5042 at Asian open and then marginally lower to 1.5036.

Due to the absence of U.K. economic events on Friday, the British pound is likely to track euro’s intra-day move closely, however, near term ‘active’ unwinding in eur/gbp cross (eur/gbp rallied from 0.7111 to 0.7198 on Thur) should weigh on the demand on cable today.

At the moment, offers are tipped at 1.5060-70, 1.5080-90 n more around 1.5100 with mixture of offers n stops located at 1.5120-30, whilst bids from various accounts are placed at 1.5010-00 and then 1.4980-70 with stops emerging just below yesterday’s low at 1.4660.

Reuters reported earlier BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the country’s trend inflation is steadily improving due to a tightening output gap and rising inflation expectations.
Kuroda, speaking in parliament, said the output gap is estimated around zero and will continue to improve ahead, while anchoring inflation expectations near 2% is very important in achieving the central bank’s price stability goal.

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of Germany’s Ifo business climate and U.S. durable goods.

24

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
27 Apr 2015[/B] [I]02:32GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Although the British pound rallied to a fresh 6-week high of 1.5188 at Friday's NY close, price moved sideways in subdued Asian trading.

Although recent broad-based weakness in the greenback has pushed price sharply higher from its Apr’s fresh near 5-year trough at 1.4566 and buying the British pound on dips is recommended, profit should be taken on next up move as the uncertainty ahead of Britain’s May 7 election (see previous MMN updates) should cap upside below 1.5500 level this week. Major U.K. economic data for the pound is the release of preliminary Q1 GDP tom where forecast for annual 2.6% increase vs previous reading of 3.0%.

At the moment, bids are noted at 1.5160-50 and then 1.5130-20 with mixture of bids and stops located at 1.5100-1.5090.
On the upside, offers from profit-taking are located at 1.5190-00 and more at 1.5220-30 with real selling interest emerging just above 1.5250.

25

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 May 2015 [/B] [I]08:21GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ...... Cable tracked euro's intra-day move closely as despite staging a bounce to 1.5175 shortly after European open, renewed broad-based rebound in the greenback knocked price down to 1.5125. However, cross-buying in sterling vs euro ltd intra-day weakness there so far n cable recovered to 1.5153.

As mentioned in previous update, offers from various accounts are located at 1.5170-80 and more at 1.5195/00 and 1.5220-30 with mixture of offers and stops located at 1.5240-50.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.5125/20 and then 1.5115/10 with demand from real money accounts reported at 1.5100 and further out at 1.5050.

26

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
08 May 2015 [/B] [I]07:04GMT[/I]

[B] GBP/USD [/B]- … Cable finally pares intra-day strong up move at European open after price spiked to 1.5448 in Australia from NY close of 1.5240 on what many put it as ‘relief rally’ after exit poll showed the ruling Conservative partly took a strong lead in the election. Despite minor knee-jerk price action in early Asian trading, the pound surged again above April’s 1.5498 peak to a 2-month top of 1.5523 near Asian midday before coming off on broad-based long liquidation in sterling.

Looks like 1.5523 should be high print for the day until the release of key U.S. payrolls data n the upcoming U.K. trade balance at 08:30GMT is likely to be ignored.

Offers are tipped at 1.5490/00 and more above, initial bids are noted at 1.5420/00 with stops below there, more bids are touted at 1.5380-70 with stops below 1.5350.
So trading cable on both sideways of the market ahead of said U.S. NFP data is the way to go.

27

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
11 May 2015[/B] [I]08:44GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ....... Cable moves in a volatile fashion in European morning as investors are reluctant to enter large position ahead of BoE monetary policy decision at 11:00GMT.

Despite edging higher from Asian low at 1.5405 in tandem with euro to 1.5335 at European open, cross-selling in sterling knocked price down to 1.5393 before staging another bounce to 1.5431.

At present, offers are touted at 1.5450-60 and around 1.5480 with a mixture of offers and stops at 1.5490-00.
On the downside, bids are reported at 1.5390/85 and then 1.5375/70 with stops building up below 1.5355 (reaction low from Fri’s fresh 2-month peak at 1.5523).

28

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
18 May 2015[/B] [I]02:48GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... Despite cable's intra-day strg rebound from 1.5702 to 1.5809 in NY session on Friday, active cross-selling in sterling, especially vs euro, knocked price down to 1.5721 near NY close.

Cable opened higher at 1.5745 in NZ today and then fell to 1.5707 in tandem with eur/usd after Asian open.

Due to lack of important U.K. economic data today, the British pound is likely to follow intra-day swings in the euro.
Earlier, property tracking website Rightmove said on Monday that the average asking price for a new house in the UK was down 0.1% on month in May.
On a yearly basis, house prices advanced 2.5%, slowing from 4.7% in the previous month.

At present, bids are reported at 1.5710-00 with stops below there.
On the upside, offers are located at 1.5750-60 and more above with some stops above 1.5820.

This week will see the release of U.K. Rightmove house price, Japan’s machinery orders, China house prices, Japan’s capacity utilization index, industrial output and tertiary industry index, Swiss retail sales, Germany’s Buba monthly report and U.S. NAHB housing market index [B]on Monday.[/B]

New Zealand’s PPI, Australia’s CB leading indicator and RBA meeting’s minutes, U.K. CPI, PPI, RPI and DCLG house price index, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment, eurozone inflation report, U.S. building permits, housing starts and Redbook [B]on Tuesday.[/B]

Japan’s GDP, Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence, Germany’s producer prices, ECB’s meeting, U.K. MPC vote outcome, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, Canada’s wholesales trade and FOMC minutes [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

Australia’s consumer inflation expectation, Japan’s Nomural/JMMA Mfg PMI, New Zealand’s budget cash balance, Japan’s all industry activity, Germany’s and eurozone Markit comp., service and manufacturing flash PMI respectively, U.K. retail sales, CBI trend trade, U.S. initial jobless claims, Chicago Fed actively index, Philly Fed business index and existing home sales [B]on Thursday.[/B]

Japan’s Tankan DI, China’s CB leading economic index, Bank of Japan monetary policy statement and press conference, Germany’s GDP, Ifo business climate, U.K. PSNCR, U.S. CPI, Canada’s CPI and retail sales [B]on Friday.[/B]

29

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
20 May 2015 [/B] [I]07:58GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ....... Although cable tracked euro's intra-day swing closely and fell from Asian high of 1.5524 to 1.5473 in European morning, price then chopped inside 1.5472-1.5499 as investors were reluctant to enter large positions ahead of the BoE minutes and MPC vote outcome at 08:30GMT.

At present, bids are reported at 1.5470-60 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.5450-40.
On the upside, offers from various accounts are placed at 1.5520-30 and then 1.5545/50 with stops building up just above 1.5550.

This morning as cable has rebounded after an initial ‘euro-led’ brief retreat to 1.5495 in Asian morning, suggesting consolidation was seen ahead of European open, and selling cable was still the way to go.
However, investors would have pay attention to the release of BoE minutes and the MPC vote outcome at 08:30GMT.

30

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
21 May 2015[/B] [I]09:01GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- .... Despite cable's brief retreat to 1.5525 shortly after European open, price rallied to as high as 1.5667 after data showed retail sales in the U.K. rose much more than expected in last month, fuelling optimism over the country's economic outlook.

The U.K. ONS said on Thur that retail sales in U.K. increased by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in Apr, easily surpassing forecasts for a gain of 0.4%. Retail sales in March fell by 0.7%, whose figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 0.5%. Year-on-year, retail sales increased at an annualized rate of 4.7% in April, beating expectations for a 3.8% gain, after rising at a rate of 4.0% in March.

Earlier cable also moved in a choppy fashion in NY afternoon after Federal Reserve provided further indications in its latest minutes that it will wait past June before raising its benchmark interest rate for the first time in nearly a decade.
This morning price tanked briefly to 1.5493 and then rallied to 1.5567 before retreating to 1.5528 at Australian opening.

31

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
26 May 2015[/B] [I]02:27GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- .... Cable languishes above intra-day 2-week low of 1.5432 after falling in tandem with eur/usd at Asian open, triggering stops below 1.5455 and 1.5445 on the way down.

However, sterling’s decline is relatively less severe as compared to euro as eur/gbp cross pair is trading near Monday’s fresh 2-month low at 0.7073.

Looks like cable would track intra-day swings in eur/usd in European morning as the only U.K. data due out is CBI distributive trades which will be released at 10:00GMT.
Order book is pretty thin due to closure of U.K. markets on Monday for Spring Bank holiday, now, offers are tipped at 1.5460/70 and more above with stops touted at 1.5510.
Some bids are touted at 1.5430-20 with some stops below 1.5390.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

New Zealand’s trade balance, U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. durable goods, Redbook, monthly house price index, CaseShiller 20 MM, consumer confidence and new home sales.

32

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
27 May 2015[/B] [I]08:21GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Cable rebounded in tandem with euro and climbed from Asian low at 1.5378 1.5437 in European morning on broad-based weakness in the greenback before retreating in part due to cross selling in sterling.

Price fell to 1.5395 and then climbed back to 1.5428.

Expect further choppy move above Tuesday’s fresh 2-1/2 week trough at 1.5354 would be seen ahead of NY open.
At the moment, offers are reported at 1.5440-50 and then 1.5465/70 with mixture of offers and stops at 1.5485-95.
On the downside, bids are tipped at 1.5380-70 and more around 1.5360 with stops building up below 1.5350.

33

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
29 May 2015[/B] [I]02:51GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B]- ..... Although cable fell to a fresh 3-week trough at 1.5260 following the release of weaker-than-expected UK GDP data (2nd reading) in Europe on Thursday, the British pound rebounded in tandem with euro during the NY session and then climbed to 1.5343 in Asian morning on Friday.

Due to lack of important U.K. economic data today, the British pound is likely to follow intra-day swings in the euro. As investors have shrugged off the poor reading of Gfk consumer confidence for U.K. reported released earlier in Asia on Friday, buying the British pound on dips is recommended.

At present, bids from various accounts are reported at 1.5325/20, 1.5310/05 and then around 1.5300 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.5280-70.
On the upside, cross-related offers are tipped at 1.5345/50 and more at 1.5360-70 with release selling interest noted further out around 1.5400 .

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand’s building consents, U.K. GfK consumer confidence, Japan’s CPI, household spending, unemployment rate, industrial production and IP forecast, Australia’s HIA new home sales, Japan’s construction orders, housing starts, Swiss GDP and KOF indicators, Canada’s GDP and U.S. Chicago PMI.

34

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jun 2015 [/B] [I]07:00GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ..... Although cable edged higher from 1.5330 in Asia and then rose briefly above Tuesday's high of 1.5367 (NY) to 1.5375 ahead of European open, release of downbeat U.K. Nationwide house price index checked intra-day gain there and price subsequent retreated to 1.5338.

U.K. Nationwide Building Society showed in a report on Wednesday that its index of U.K. house prices rose to 0.3%, from 1.0% in the preceding month.

At the moment, bids are reported at 1.5330/25 and then 1.5310-00 with stops building up below 1.5300.
On the upside, offers are noted at 1.5370-80 and around 1.5390 with mixture of offers and stops at 1.5400-1.5410.

35

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jun 2015 [/B] [I]09:53GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ....... Cable fell exactly one and a quarter cents from its intra-day 1.5375 high after release of a surprise downbeat key U.K. services PMI. Reuters reported sterling tumbled against the dollar on Wednesday after a survey of the British service sector came in sharply below forecasts, pointing to another subdued round of overall economic growth in the 2nd quarter.

The slowdown from April in the single biggest piece of Britain’s economy was the fastest in nearly 4 years and, combined with a weak manufacturing survey and a bounce in construction, suggested growth across the 3 sectors combined in May was the lowest since Dec.

There are broader question marks over growth ahead. The euro zone is still struggling to pull out of five years of debt-driven turmoil, Britain’s newly-elected Conservative gov’t has promised sharp cuts in public spending to reduce the budget deficit, n outside investors may be given pause for thought by a planned referendum on U.K.'s membership of the EU.

That, and a dip in growth in the 1st quarter, has pushed back expectations for a first rise in UK interest rates well into next year, weakening the case for the pound to be one of a few currencies to appreciate in broader terms along with the usd.

The BoE starts a 2-day meeting on interest rates on Wed but is expected to add nothing to the debate for now. After a brief jump following the elections on May 7, the pound is now bang in the middle of this year’s ranges and around 6 cents above lows against the dlr hit in Mar n Apr.

36

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
10 Jun 2015[/B] [I]02:32GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... The British pound tracked euro's intra-day swing closely on Tuesday and despite falling from Asian high of 1.5375 to as low as 1.5257 in NY morning, price rebounded and then rallied to 1.5389, helped by active cross-buying in sterling vs euro and yen. Cable later edged higher to 1.5400 at Asian open on Wednesday before easing.

Expect the pound to move closely with euro until the release of UK industrial data in European morning at 08:30GMT.
Street forecast for both UK industrial output and manufacturing output in May to slow down to 0.1% from previous reading of 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

Later in NY session, we will see release of UK GDP estimate over the last 3 months by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research which is highly reliable and would influence the UK monetary policy.
In addition, investors should pay attention to the speeches by UK FinMin George Orsborne n BoE’s Mark Carney near NY close at 20:00GMT (see early udpate for details).

At the moment, bids are reported at 1.5370-60 n around 1.5350 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.5330-20, whilst offers are tipped at 1.5410/15 and then 1.5430-40 with stops just above last week’s top at 1.5441.

[B]Wednesday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s machinery orders, Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence, U.K. industrial and manufacturing output, NIESR GDP estimate and U.S. Federal budget.

37

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
16 Jun 2015 [/B] [I]02:49GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ..... Cable tracked euro's intra-day swing closely on Mon but intra-day's rally extended more compared to other European ccys. The British pound rose to a fresh 3-week high of 1.5614 vs the USD in NY afternoon due to active cross-buying in sterling vs yen (gbp/jpy rose to a fresh 6-year peak a t 192.66 on Mon) and then retreated to 1.5587 at Asian open on Tuesday before rebounding.

Today’s focus for the British pound is on the release of UK’s CPI, PPI, RPI and DCGL house price index at 08:30GMT.
Market expects the UK’s inflation in May to be 0.2% m/m adn 0.1% y/y compare to previous readings of 0.2% and -0.1% respectively.

At present, bids are noted at 1.5590-80 and around 1.5570 with stops below 1.5550, whilst offers are reported at 1.5620/25, 1.5645/50 and then 1.5670-80 with stops building just above 1.5700.

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of Australian RBA meeting minutes, Germany’s CPI and HICP, U.K. CPI, PPI, RPI and DCLG house price index, ZEW economic sentiment, Eurozone employment change, U.S. building permits, housing starts and Redbook.

38

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jun 2015[/B] [I]03:00GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... Despite cable's sideways move in NY afternoon after early intra-day sell off from 1.5910 to 1.5806 on Monday, the pair tumbled again after meeting renewed selling at 1.5831 ahead of Asian open on Tuesday and then staged a sudden sell off to 1.5766 in part due to cross-selling in sterling.

Due to the thin U.K. economic calendar today, fund flow should dominate the market and the British pound is expected to track euro’s intra-day swing closely.
Having said that, The Confederation of British Industry will release its survey on U.K. industrial trend for Jun at 10:00GMT and its is estimated to turn back into positive figure at 1 vs -5 in preceding month.

At present, fresh offers are building up at 1.5790-1.5810 region with mixture of offers and stops at 1.5830-40.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.5750-40 and more around 1.5720 with demand from real money accounts at 1.5700.

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of Australia’s CB leading index and home price index, China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI, Germany’s and eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI and services PMI respectively, U.K. inflation report hearing and CBI trends, U.S. durable goods, Redbook, monthly home price and new home sales.

39

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views

24 Jun 2015[/B] [I]07:00GMT[/I]
[B]GBP/USD[/B] - … Cable ratcheted higher after meeting renewed buying at 1.5724 in Aust. and then rallied to 1.5803 in European morning due to active cross-buying in sterling before easing. (EUR/GBP fell from 0.7113 to 0.7085 whilst GBP/YEN rose from 194.88 to 195.78)

At present, stops located above 1.5810 are now in focus but selling interest from various accounts is noted in 1.5830-40 region.
On the downside, bids are building up at 1.5770-60 and more around 1.5750 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.5730-20.

40

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
30 Jun 2015[/B] [I]03:09GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... Cable showed muted reaction to early release of upbeat U.K. consumer confidence. Reuters reported British consumer morale surged to its highest in over 15 years this month as shoppers said they were ready to spend, a survey showed on Tuesday, adding to signs that growth is picking up after a weak start to the year.

Although cable rebounded in tandem with euro on Monday and ratcheted higher from a 2-week trough at 1.5645 (NZ) to 1.5789 near European close, active cross-selling in sterling especially vs euro knocked price down to 1.5720.
Later, cable briefly rebounded to 1.5762and then moved in a relatively narrow range of 1.5722-1.5733 in NY afternoon and as well as in Asian morning on Tuesday.

If the actual readings of the UK GDP are higher than forecasts, then we may see a boost higher in the British pound across the board and therefore, buying cable on intra-day dips is recommended.
At present, bids are noted at 1.5700-1.5690 and more around 1.5670 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.5650-40.
On the upside, offers are reported at 1.5745/50, 1.5760-70 and then 1.5785/90 with stops building up just above 1.5800.

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of U.K. GfK consumer confidence, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, Australia’s HIA new home sales, Japan’s construction order and housing starts, Germany’s retail sales, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany’s unemployment rate, U.K. current account, GDP, inflation report hearings, Canada’s GDP, U.S. Redbook, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.