AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Trading Discussion Currencies
1

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

05 Nov 2014

GBP/USD[/B] -...... Cable moved in a choppy fashion below Monday's high of 1.6027 on Tuesday. Although price found renewed buying at 1.5965 at Asian open n ratcheted higher in Europe, selling interest at 1.6015/20 checked intra-day gain at 1.6016 at NY open and cable later tanked to 1.5982 in NY afternoon due to cross-selling vs euro before staging another bounce to 1.6012 in Asia on Wednesday.

Although the early release of weak U.K. shop price index suggests range trading with mild downside bias wud be seen in Asia n selling cable on recovery is recommended, as investors are awaiting the release of U.K. service PMI in European morning (09:30GMT) for further indication of how the U.K.'s main economic sector is performing when Christmas is approaching, sharp fall is unlikely ahead of European open.
Economists are expecting the reading to soften to 58.5 in Oct compare to 58.7 in September.

At present, offers are noted at 1.6010-20 n then 1.6030/35 with stops emerging above 1.6050, whilst bids are placed at 1.5985/80 and around 1.5965 with stops placed just below 1.5950.

News in early Wednesday, British shops matched a record decline in the price cuts in October and food prices looked at risk of falling into deflation, a survey fm the British Retail Consortium showed on Wednesday.

BRC said October retail prices were 1.9 percent lower than a year ago, matching July’s record decline and weaker than a 1.8 percent fall in September.
Prices for food products edged up just 0.1 percent, the smallest rise since the survey began almost eight years ago, compared with a 0.3 percent increase in September.
There was deep and widespread discounting across grocery stores.

Britain’s big supermarkets have fought an escalating price war, spurred by discounters like Aldi and Lidl which have taken a growing market share from traditional rival grocers.

Overall, consumer price inflation ran at 1.2 percent in September, well below the Bank of England’s 2 percent target.
Wages are growing even more slowly - something the BoE has cited as a reason to keep interest rates on hold.

2

[B]13 Nov 2014 [/B] [I]08:03GMT [/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Cable remains under pressure in European morning after yesterday's dovish BoE inflation report and hovers just above Aust.'s fresh 14-month low at 1.5760.

Fresh offers are noted at 1.5775/80 and around 1.5790 with stops emerging above 1.5800, however, more selling interest from various accounts is placed in the region of 1.5820-40.
On the downside, bids from profit-taking are touted at 1.5750-40 and around 1.5720 with buying interest from real accounts located further out at 1.5700.

This morning Cable tumbled on Wednesday after the BoE downgraded U.K. inflation forecasts significantly in its quarterly Inflation Report n dampened market’s hopes of rate hike in early 2015.
BoE said in the report that inflation rate in U.K. may fall below 1.0% at sometime within the next 6-months and growth prospects are also somewhat lower to 2.9% in 2015. The British pound fell sharply after the report, dropping fm intra-day high of 1.5940 to 1.5776 in NY afternoon n then further to a fresh 14-month trough at 1.5760 in Australia earlier this morning before stabilising.
Earlier, as cable remained under pressure with no U.K. eco. release are due, selling the pound on recovery is the way to go. buying interest from real accounts located at 1.5700.

3

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

02 Dec 2014
GBP/USD[/B] - … Cable pares yesterday’s sharp gain after price staged a near term reversal from a fresh 14-month low of 1.5585 to as high as 1.5763 (NY) as intra-day sharp jump in the U.K. Brent crude from a 5-year low of $67.53 a barrel to $72.40 triggered broad-based short-covering in sterling (eur/gbp fell from 0.7977 to 0.7924).

Although price has eased in tandem with intra-day retreat in eur/usd in subdued Asian trading, suggesting consolidation below said yesterday’s high wud continue until European open. Today, U.K. Nov construction PMI will be due out at 09:30GMT ahead of Wed’s release of a slew of important data as well as FinMin Geroge Osborne’s annual Autumn Statement to Parliament.
Initial bids are noted at 1.5715-00 area with some stops below there.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.5755/65 with stops reported above 1.5780, suggesting buying cable on dips is the way to go.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will give his annual Autumn Statement to Parliament on Wed. The statement provides an update on the govt’s plans for the economy based on the latest forecasts fm the Office for Budget Responsibility. These forecasts will be published alongside the Autumn Statement tom.

WSJ reported Osborne is expected to deliver the message that Britain is in for another dose of gov’t belt-tightening if his Conservative Party wins a general election next year, as data show the economy’s recovery remains patchy.

The closely watched update on Britain’s public finances comes at a delicate time for Osborne n his close ally, PM David Cameron, who are preparing for an election in May. Their economic record will be a central issue n a key question will be whether U.K. voters will be willing to stomach further cuts n return the Conservative Party to power.

Economists expect Osborne to present forecasts showing that despite the economy’s return to growth he remains years away fm meeting his self-imposed goal of closing the U.K.'s budget deficit. That implies tax increases or further cuts to public spending will be needed after 2015.
“I think the British public understands that difficult decisions need to be taken so that Britain can live within its means,” Osborne said Sun in an interview with the BBC.

4

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Dec 2014
GBP/USD [/B]- … Cable pares intra-day losses in Europe n rebounded briefly after stronger-than-expected U.K. services PMI. November reading came in at 58.6, much higher than market estimate of 56.5, previous month’s reading was 56.2.

The pound hit a low of 1.5619 before the data and briefly bounced to 1.5671 after the release, however, price quickly eased back to 1.5650 as offers at 1.5670/80 have capped intra-day rebound, suggesting range trading above 1.5619 would be seen ahead of the delivery of the annual Autumn Statement by FnMin George Osborne at 12:30GMT.

In the meantime, offers are tipped at 1.5670/80 n more above with stops above 1.5700.
Bids are noted at 1.5620-00 area with stops building below last week’s fresh 14-month low at 1.5585.

More on the upbeat U.K. services PMI, Britain’s services sector expanded faster than expected last month, a survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting the economy may be slowing less than previously thought following a year of robust growth.

The closely watched Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 58.6 in Nov after falling sharply to 56.2 in October, beating all forecasts in a Reuters poll, amid reports of firm demand and increased new business.

The rise in the index was the biggest in over a year, and it has exceeded the 50 level that represents growth for nearly 2 years. A corresponding manufacturing survey on Monday also showed a rebound, though Tuesday’s construction PMI was weaker. Markit said that taken together, the surveys suggested Britain’s economy will grow by 0.6% in the final 3 months of 2014, up fm a previous estimate of 0.5%.

The data is likely to be welcomed by FinMin George Osborne, who gives a half-yearly update on official growth and borrowing forecasts later on Wed, his penultimate such statement before May’s national election. The BoE forecasts Britain’s economy will grow by 3.5% this year, faster than any other big advanced economy, before growth slows to 2.9% next year.

5

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Dec 2014[/B] [I]09:33GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - 1.5630... Although the British pound traded with a firm bias in Asia and briefly rose to session high at 1.5678 in European morning, price swiftly surrendered its gains and fell sharply to 1.5612 after the release of weaker-than-expected UK inflation data.

Statement from BoE’s Carney, quote:
‘momentum may return to UK housing market after stamp duty cut and falls in mortgage rates;
international risks likely to figure prominently in 2015 stress test;
given footprint of largest UK banks in Asia, can expect Asian risk to be in future stress test;
want to explore how contagion can spread from less liquid mkts to core mkts;
UK institutions have very modest banking exposure to Russia;
BoE will look through direct impact of oil price on UK inflation.’

BoE FPC quote:
‘judges no system-wide macroprudential actions needed in response to UK stress tests;
decides at Dec meeting to set counter-cyclical capital buffer rate for UK exposures at 0%;
risks from UK housing market have not risen since June but household debt still high;
UK banks’ recent misconduct and operational failings show better governance needed;
stress tests give clean bill of health to Barclays, Hsbc, Nationwide, Santander UK and Standard Chartered.’

BoE stress tests show ‘co-operative bank was only one to fall below 4.5% capital threshold;
RBS exceeded 4.5% threshold after submitted revised capital plan, BoE judges additional plan not needed;
Lloyds exceeded 4.5% threshold, not required to submit revised capital plan due to action since end 2013.’
‘BoE stress tests show UK banks could continue to serve economy even after severe stress.’

6

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Dec 2014[/B] [I]09:46GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... The British pound remained under pressure in Asia and continued to weaken throughout the session. Price eventually hit a low at 1.5677/78 in early European morning, however, cable pared its losses and rebounded strongly to 1.5729 after the release of UK average earnings and BoE minutes.

Bids are now seen at 1.5700/10 and more below at 1.5680/90 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.5750/60, suggesting buying on dips is favored.

The BoE has focused more on wage growth as it considers when to start raising rates. Data due to be released at the same time of the minutes on Wed was expected to show earnings rising faster than inflation for a 2nd month in Oct.

The minutes showed the majority who voted to keep rates on hold thought faster pay growth would be required to meet the 2% inflation target.

However, those in favour of a rate rise thought this was already in train.

Financial market investors have pushed back their bets on the timing of the next interest rate hike markedly over the past few months, n are now pricing in the first move late next year.

Last month the BoE issued forecasts that showed British inflation will likely fall below 1% in the next 6 months, while Carney suggested markets were right to rule out an interest rate hike any time soon.

7

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

18 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:40GMT[/I]
[B]GBP/USD[/B] - … Cable is nursing yesterdays sharp losses in quiet Asian trading on Thursday after o/n sell off below December’s 1.5541 low to a fresh 14-1/2 month trough of 1.5530 after Fed Chair Yellen’s hawkish remarks at the post-FOMC press conference.
Despite tripping stops in a rather illiquid late NY session, short covering quickly lifted the pound once the sell stops were done.
Price briefly bounced to 1.5603 n then moved narrowly in Australia. Asian traders are happy to stay on the sideline until European open.

Looks like Wednesday’s low print would continue to hold until release of key U.K. retail sales data at 09:30GMT. Street forecasts are looking for a weakish Novmeber number with M/M to be 0.3% vs previous reading of +0.8% whilst Y/Y figure is expected to be 4.4% vs previous reading of 4.3%.
If both readings come in weaker than forecast, one can expect another round of pound bashing.
Until then, offers are noted at 1.5600/10 and more above with stops reported above 1.5630.
Initial bids are noted at 1.5505-00 with some stops below there.

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand’s GDP, Australia’s RBA Bulletin, China’s House Prices, Switzerland’s Trade, Germany’s IFO Business Climates, IFO Current Conditions, IFO Expectations, U.K.'s Retail sales, U.S. Markit Service PMI, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Business and Leading index change. Japan’s BoJ will begin its 2-day meeting.

8

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Dec 2014[/B] [I]09:31GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ..... Although the British pound traded with a firm bias in Asia and gained briefly to session high at 1.5665 at European open, cable pared its gains and retreated sharply to 1.5618 in European morning, due partly to cross-selling of sterling especially vs euro.

Offers are now seen at 1.5650/60 and more above at 1.5670/80 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.5590/00.
Since there is no eco. data out from UK today, price is expected to trade in choppy fashion till NY open.

Bank of England's Weale says hearing of pay freezes much more rarely from UK businesses.

This morning the British pound move narrowly in subdued Asian trading as some traders have closed their books in this holiday-abbreviated week. Despite Friday’s rebound after intra-day retreat from 1.5682 to 1.5605 (NY low), anticipated renewed weakness in the eur/usd shud limit intra-day gain.
As no U.K. eco. data are due out today, cable is expected to track intra-day swings in the euro.
Order book was very thin on this Monday morning

9

Intra-day Market Moving News and Views

05 Jan 2015 09:35GMT
GBP/USD - … Although the British pound resumed its recent losing streak adn fell in tandem with euro to a fresh 16-month low at 1.5185 in Australia, price pared its losses and rallied to 1.5320 at Asian open on active-short covering.
Renewed buying emerged at 1.5273 ahead of European open and lifted the pair to 1.5320 again before retreating marginally due to the release of poor UK construction PMI data.

UK construction PMI came in much weaker-than-expected at 57.6 vs forecast of 59.0.

Offers are now seen at 1.5310/20 and more above at 1.5330/40 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.5240/50, suggesting selling on recovery is still the favored strategy.

10

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Jan 2015[/B] [I]02:32GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - … Despite initial retreat from NY high of 1.5118 to 1.5078 in Australia, cable rebounded to 1.5104 on dovish remarks by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, its was a surprise dlr fell broadly on his comments since he is not a voting member of the 2015 FOMC and has announced plans to resign by early next year.
As yesterday’s short-covering strong rebound from a 17-month bottom made in Europe at 1.5034 signals a temp. low is in place, range trading is expected in Asia.
Offers are tipped at 1.5100/10 with stops touted above 1.5130.
Initial bids are noted at 1.5080-70 and more below with stops reported below 1.5030.

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of Australia retail sales, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, China CPI, PPI, Germany imports, exports, industrial output, trade balance, France exports, imports, industrial output, trade balance, Italy ISTAT Public Deficit/GDP, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, Canada building permits, unemployment rate, U.S. average earnings, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

11

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jan 2015[/B] [I]01:29GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Cable shrugged off early release of weak U.K. retails sales and rebounded in tandem with euro due to intra-day renewed weakness in the greenback in Asia.

Reuters reported U.K. retail spending growth slowed in December after consumers splashed out on November’s “Black Friday” bargains and prices continued to fall broadly, industry data showed on Tuesday.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said year-on-year retail spending was 1.0% higher this December than a year ago, the weakest December growth since 2008 and a sharp contrast with November’s 2.2% jump.

Falling prices also weighed on spending. Shop prices were down by an average of 1.7% in December compared with 2013, the BRC said last week. Broader official data due for release at 09:30GMT is forecast to show consumer price inflation at a 12-year low of 0.7%.

Taking lower prices into account, retail sales volumes rose an annual 2.6%, the same as in Dec 2013. Retail spending on the BRC’s like-for-like measure – which excludes new stores n more closely reflects how stores report sales to shareholders – were 0.4% down on the year.

Yesterday although the British pound fell from an intra-day high at 1.5195 to session low at 1.5099 in European morning on dlr’s broad-based strength, cable pared its losses n rebounded strongly in tandem with euro to 1.5174 in NY morning. However, price met renewed selling there n retreated to 1.5136, weighed down by cross-selling of sterling vs euro.

[B]Tuesday [/B]will see the release of Japan’s Current Account and Economic Watchers Poll, China’s Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, Italy’s Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail sales, CPI, PPI, RPI, U.S. Rebook and Federal Budget on Tuesday.

12

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Jan 2015[/B] [I]03:30GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... The pound pares yesterday's spectacular rally from Asian 1-week low of 1.5058 to as high as 1.5200 in NY morning. Some touted this move on possible M&A deal whilst some tied this to active buying of sterling vs yen & eur.

However, renewed weakness in eur/usd in NY session later triggered broad-based long liquidation in sterling and cable retreated to 1.5136 in Asia, suggesting choppy trading below said yesterday’s high would continue today.

Range trading this morning was expected ahead of release of MPC’s Jan minutes n U.K. jobs data at 09:30GMT.
Offers then were tipped at 1.5160/70 and more with stops above 1.5200. Initial bids are noted at 1.5140-30 and more at 1.5110-00.

With U.K. general election looming in May, Blooming reported lose-lose for business as U.K. election defies prediction.

Businesses faced with a general election in the U.K. are finding that the only thing certain about the vote is its unpredictability. 3-1/2 months before the ballot, polls agree that neither PM David Cameron’s Conservatives nor the Labour opposition are likely to win a majority. And the odds have already shortened on a rerun having to be held this year.

That makes companies’ forward planning increasingly difficult even as the U.K. economy gathers strength, inflation drops n interest rates look like staying at a record low. 16 of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News identified political uncertainty as the biggest threat to Britain?s recovery, making it the second biggest risk after weak demand fm the euro area, which was cited by 18.

Both parties’ electoral agendas are also cause for concern. The U.K. Independence Party’s growing popularity has forced Cameron to harden his stance on Europe and to pledge a referendum on EU membership by 2017 if he is re-elected, pitting him – unusually for a Tory leader – against the majority of British businesses. Meanwhile, Labour leader Ed Miliband’s pledges to freeze energy prices and raise taxes have been greeted with unease.

The EY ITEM Club also cited possible shocks from the U.K. election as a risk that “should not be neglected” in its winter forecast, published this week.

Still, with polls consistently putting Labour n the Conservatives neck and neck, questions such as the likelihood of a referendum may not be resolved on May 7. A survey by YouGov Plc carried out on Jan. 18 n Jan. 19 found the Tories n Labour tied at 32 % of the vote – not enough for either party to get a majority in Parliament. The poll of 1,747 people also put UKIP support at 15 %, with the Liberal Democrats at 8 % n the Greens at 7 %.

[B]Wednesday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand’s CPI, Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence, Japan’s BoJ rate decision, Monetary Policy Statement, Leading Economic Index, BoE MPC vote outcome, U.K.'s Average Earnings, ILO unemployment rate, Claimant Count Unemployment Change, Canada’s Wholesale Trade, BoC’s rate decision, U.S. Housing Starts, Redbook and Building Permits.

13

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2015[/B] [I]09:36GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Although the British pound opened slightly higher in NZ adn rose to session high at 1.5100, price pared its gains and continued to retreat throughout Asia.

Price briefly dropped to session low at 1.5030 in European morning, however, renewed buying there after the release of better-than-expected UK manufacturing PMI lifted the pair and cabled rebounded strongly to 1.5088.

UK manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0, higher than forecast of 52.7.

Bids are now seen at 1.5050/60 adn more below at 1.5030/40 with stops building up abv there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.5100/10, suggesting buying on dips is still favored.

This morning Cable opened higher in tandem with eur/usd in NZ and briefly touched intra-day high of 1.5100 (Reuters) after tripping light stops above Friday’s 1.5090 high but soon retreated and later eased to 1.5070 in Asia.

Range trading below said Monday’s high was expected until European open and as Friday’s strong rebound from 1.4989 (NY) suggests further volatile consolidation above Jan’s 17-month low at 1.4952 would continue, sideways move was expected.

14

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Feb 2015[/B] [I]09:00GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... Reuters news reported Britain should hold a referendum on its membership of the EU as soon as possible to reduce the damaging impact of uncertainty, the head of business group British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said on Tuesday.

PM David Cameron has promised to renegotiate U.K.'s ties with the euro zone ahead of a referendum in 2017 if he is re-elected in May, but has said he would like to hold the membership vote sooner if possible.

The opposition Labour party, which is neck-and-neck with Cameron’s Conservatives in many polls ahead of May’s national election, only plans to hold a referendum if there is a significant transfer of powers from London to Brussels.
“Our members say that they actually want a referendum. There is obviously a debate around a referendum at the moment … that is creating uncertainty, so if we are going to have a referendum we ought to do it quickly,” John Longworth, Director General of the BCC told BBC radio. Longworth said if Labour was elected it would come under “huge pressure” to hold a referendum n that would create yet more uneasiness.
“We have to come to a conclusion on these things and move on … Uncertainty is bad for business,” he said.

In a speech to the BCC annual conference later, Longworth will say his members support staying in a reformed EU but warn of a situation where all decisions are made by, and for, the euro zone.
"Without true reform, business support for the European project is far fm guaranteed.

Earlier UK FinMin George Osborne says ‘danger of a miscalculation leading to very bad outcome between Greece n Eurozone is increasing.’

This morning Cable moves narrowly in quiet Asian trading after finding minor sup at 1.5200 just ahead of NY open Monday. Altough price staged a rebound in tandem with eur/usd, offers at 1.5245 capped intra-day bounce and price later traded inside a 1.5209-42 range for rest of NY session.

Yesterday’s weakness in sterling vs eur & yen in NY suggests intra-day downside bias remains for decline from Friday’s 1-month high at 1.5353 to resume once present sideways move is over, so selling cable on recovery is favoured.
At 09:30GMT, U.K. will release Dec industrial & manufacturing production.

15

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Feb 2015[/B] [I]06:29GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ...... Breaking news, Bank of England's Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe says allegations around HSBC raise serious issues around HSBC's conduct;

-allegations around HSBC are certainly something which could be of relevance to us.
He says impact of oil prices should come out of UK inflation within a year or so - BBC radio.
-UK growth is robust, seeing signs UK has turned corner on productivity;
-euro area in stronger position now to deal with a Greek exit from eurozone, but would be big event;
-at the moment we are not seeing the conditions where we would reduce interest rates, do more QE.

This morning Cable trades steadily in subdued Asian morning after yesterday’s spectacular rally from 1.5209 in Europe to session high of 1.5415 (NY) after the BoE upgraded U.K. growth outlook n raised inflation expectation in its quarterly Inflation Report.
Sterling’s intra-day rally in hectic European trading triggered a series of buy stops above 1.5300, then 1.5360 and later above 1.5400.

Expect sideways move below Thursday’s 5-week high at 1.5415 to continue ahead of European open n with no U.K. data are due out, cable is likely to take cue from intra-day swings in the eur/usd.

16

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Mar 2015[/B] [I]07:44GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... Cable rebounds right at European open as a wave of broad-based buying in sterling lifted the pound. Although price briefly fell below yesterday's 1.5344 low to 1.5340, buying interest above last week's bottom at 1.5333 quickly pushed price higher.

Traders cited short-covering ahead of release of the very important U.K. February services PMI was the main factor behind the intra-day bounce.
As mentioned in previous update, street forecast is looking for a mildly upbeat reading of 57.5 vs previous fig. at 57.2, a stronger number should trigger further buying spree in the sterling.

For now, bids are noted at 1.5350-40 with fairly large stops below 1.5330 whilst offers are tipped at 1.5380/90 with stops above 1.5400.

Earlier the pound moves narrowly in subdued Asian trading on Wednesday following yesterday’s roller-coaster move. Despite staging a recovery to 1.5398 at Euroepan open, traders gave cable a bashing n knocked price to session lows of 1.5344 at NY open but only to bounce back to 1.5393 due to dlr’s renewed weakness, however, price pared intra-day gain and fell back to 1.5357 in Australia before stabilising.

Range trading above said yesterday’s 1.5344 low is envisaged until the release of the last but most important U.K. February services PMI (the index showed the dominant services sector which accounts for 75% of activity in the UK economy).
Street forecast is looking for 57.5 vs previous reading of 57.2, a stronger-than-expected number wud spark off brad-based short-covering in the pound.

17

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Mar 2015[/B] [I]09:04GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Cable finally gains a bit of temporary respite in hectic European trading after weakening to a near 3-week low of 1.5225 ahead of European open.

Although st specs sold cable in Australia and knocked price from 1.5269, price remained under pressure in Asia and easily penetrated yesterday’s 1.5250 low, price later fell to 1.5225 after tripping some stops below 1.5225.

Looks like European traders are reluctant to test cable’s downside as MPC meets and even though the BoE policy announcement will be a non-event.
In the meantime, range trading above 1.5225 is expected with initial bids noted at 1.5235-25 with some stops (not large) below 1.5220.
Offers are tipped at 1.5265/75 and more above with stops above 1.5300.

British PM David Cameron on Thursday ruled out taking on opposition Labour party leader Ed Miliband in a head-to-head televised debate ahead of the May 7 national election.
While the Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck in the polls, Miliband has the most to gain from a head-to-head debate as his personal ratings are far lower than Cameron’s.
A letter from Cameron’s office said he would only take part in one debate and that it must include leaders from minor political parties, rejecting broadcasters’ proposals to hold several debates, including a one-on-one debate with Miliband.

“There should be one 90 minute debate between seven party leaders,” the letter said. It proposed including the anti-European Union party UKIP, Scottish n Welsh nationalists, the Green party and the junior coalition partner Liberal Democrats.

18

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Mar 2015[/B] [I]00:07GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - .... Cable briefly rebounded to intra-day high of 1.4901 ahead of Asian open on Monday on news of ruling Conservative party has a 4- point lead ahead of the Labour party.

Reuters reported earlier British PM David Cameron’s Conservatives have taken a 4 point lead over the opposition Labour Party on the eve of the start of official campaigning for a May 7 national election, a poll showed late on Sunday.

The poll, by ComRes for ITV News and the Daily Mail newspaper, gave the Conservatives their largest lead in the polling series since September 2010.

It put them on 36%, up 1 point from last week, Labour on 32%, down 3 points, the Liberal Democrats on 9%, UKIP on 12%, n the Greens on 5%.

Underlining how volatile the election is, an earlier poll on Sunday showed Labour Party has taken a 4 point lead over Cameron’s Conservatives after the first TV encounter of the campaign.

[B]This week [/B]will see the release of New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, German Buba monthly report, U.S. existing home sales and eurozone consumer confidence flash [B]on Monday.[/B]

Australian CB leading index, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, German and eurozone Markit manufacturing and services PMI, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, U.K. DCLG house price, U.S. core CPI, Redbook, Markit manufacturing PMI and new home sales [B]on Tuesday.[/B]

New Zealand trade balance, Swiss UBS consumer indicator, German Ifo business climate, U.S. durable goods and SNB quarterly bulletin [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

German GfK consumer sentiment, U.K. retail sales and CBI distributive trades, U.S. jobless claims and Markit services PMI [B]on Thursday.[/B]

Japan’s household spending, CPI, unemployment rate and retail sales, U.K. Nationwide house price, Germany import price index, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, U.S. final GDP and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index [B]on Friday.[/B]

19

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Mar 2015[/B] [I]02:03GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ..... Cable showed muted reaction to release of upbeat U.K. consumer confidence (Gfk Mar index rose to a 12-year high) in Australia and the pound briefly slipped fm 1.4817 to 1.4787 in tandem with intra-day weakness in the euro in Asian morning.

Despite Monday’s strg rebound from a 1-week low of 1.4752 to 1.4843 in volatile NY session, anticipated weakness in the euro is likely to pressure the pound ahead of release of U.K. Q4 GDP & trade data.

Offers are noted at 1.4820/30 with stop above 1.4845, more stops are touted above 1.4870.
Minor bids are noted at 1.4780-60 with stops reported below 1.4750.

20

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Apr 2015 [/B] [I]02:44GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Although cable fell in tandem with euro in Asia on Wednesday and then tumbled to a fresh 1-1/2 week trough at 1.4740 in European morning despite the release of upbeat Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI for March, intra-day rebound in eur/usd lifted price to 1.4847 in NY morning before moving sideways in NY afternoon session.

Yesterday’s rebound from 1.4740 suggests further choppy trading inside early broad range of 1.5166 (post-FOMC high)-1.4689 would continue ahead of Friday’s important U.S. non-farm payroll data and with mild upside bias and buying the pound on intra-day pullback is recommended today.
Having said that, investors shud pay attention to the release of U.K. Markit/CIPS construction PMI at 08:30GMT.
Market expects the reading to drop slightly to 59.5 from 60.1 in preceding month.

At the moment, bids from various accounts are noted at 1.4810-00, 1.4785/80 and then 1.4760-50 with stops emerging below 1.4740.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.4860-70 and around 1.4890 with stops located just above 1.4900.

[B]Thursday[/B] will see the release of Australia’s trade balance, U.K. Markit constructions PMI, U.S. jobless claims, Canada’s import, export and trade balance, U.S. ISM New York index, durable goods and factory orders.