AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Trading Discussion Currencies
101

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
18 Dec 2015[/B] 00:44GMT

[B]GBP/USD[/B] -....... Cable staged a short-covering rebound to 1.4930 ahead of Asian open after conciliatory comments by U.K. PM Cameron, and continued its recent decline on renewed market jitter of a 'Brexit'.

David Cameron wants Britain to stay in the EU, but has hinted he could campaign for an exit if he fails to win an agreement that can reduce the influx of EU migrants, improve business competitiveness, give more sovereignty back to Britain and protect London’s banks from discrimination by the euro zone.

His proposal to make European immigrants to Britain wait four years before claiming “in-work” benefits - income supplements to people in lower paid jobs - has been roundly criticised for breaking EU law banning discrimination.

An EU aide said Tusk wanted to give everyone a chance to speak their mind on Thursday night with a view to seeking a deal at the next summit in mid-February. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, known as the Visegrad Group, said in a statement they would reject any British demand to change EU laws that would mean discrimination against their citizens or limit their freedom of movement.

Cameron presented his four-year proposal, but made clear that he was open to other ways to better control immigration to Britain. An EU diplomat said Cameron had earlier sat in silence for more than three hours while other EU leaders debated how to deal with a wave of migrants that has divided European governments. Britain has refused to take in any from Europe.

102

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
22 Dec 2015[/B] [I]01:00GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Cable edges higher after release of higher-than-expected UK consumer confidence at Asian open.

Reuters reported British consumer morale in December edged up from a six-month low in November, but households remain more worried about the economy than they were at the end of last year, a survey showed on Tuesday.

Market research firm GfK said its monthly consumer sentiment indicator rose to +2 in December from +1 in November, marginally stronger than a median forecast of +1 in a Reuters poll of economists.
“This is the first time since the Consumer Confidence Barometer started in 1974 that the Index has remained positive for an entire calendar year,” Joe Staton, Head of Market Dynamics at GfK, said.

But optimism about the economy over the next 12 months was stuck at its lowest level since July 2013 at -6. In December of last year, the reading was a slightly less weak -5.
Staton said he was unable to comment on the reasons for the weak outlook.

Britain was the world’s fastest-growing big, developed economy last year and has grown more quickly than most of its peers again in 2015. But while earnings are rising faster than almost non-existent inflation, growth in pay is much slower than it was before the financial crisis.

The GfK survey showed consumers were a bit less willing to spend on big-ticket items than in November.

103

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
22 Dec 2015[/B] [I]02:45GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Despite yesterday's intra-day fall from 1.4923 to 1.4877 in New York morning due to renewed selling of sterling vs euro and yen, cross unwinding helped cable to stage a brief bounce to 1.4912 but only to fall back to 1.4879 right at New York close.

As cable has traded above said NY low (also Mon’s bottom) in Asia, sideways move above said sup is envisaged ahead of London open and as eur/usd is expected to move high, upside bias is seen for cable to ratchet higher also.

Having said that, offers are reported at 1.4920/30 and more above with stops building above 1.4950, unless the pound can move above 1.4923/28 res, risk is to the downside for one more fall for initial re-test of last Thursday’s fresh 7-month trough of 1.4876 where stops are touted to have been placed below there.

104

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
23 Dec 2015 [/B] 01:50GMT

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ...... Sterling is nursing yesterday's steep losses in subdued Asian trading on Wednesday. The pound came under surprise heavy broad-based selling pressure in European morning after data showed U.K. public finances worsened sharply in November (public borrowing climbed to 14.2 bln pounds - 10% higher then in the same month last year), cable later tumbled below last week's 1.4865 low to an 8-month trough of 1.4806 in New York afternoon before stabilising.

As yesterday’s selloff started in Europe, unless London traders buy cable later in Europe, selling the pound on intra-day recovery is the way to go as the trend (downtrend) is your friend and cable may well continue its recent losing streak into X’mas.
Pay attention to release of final read of U.K. Q3 GDP as well as trade data, market is looking for a deficit of 21.5 bln pounds vs previous month’s reading of 16.76 bln pounds.

Order board is pretty light with some offers noted at 1.4855/65 and a mixture of bids and stops near and below 1.4800.

105

[B]Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
28 Dec 2015 [/B] 02:04GMT

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Cable pared last week's gain in holiday-thinned Asian trading, price retreated from Friday's 1.4947 high to 1.4909. Some attributed to intra-day weakness to severe flooding in the U.K. over the X'mas holiday as this may impact the U.K. GDP negatively by wiping off growth rate by approx. 0.2%.

Order book is very thin in subdued Asian session with some offers touted at 1.4940/50 and stops above 1.4950.
Some bids are noted at 1.4910-00 with stops below 1.4880.
U.K. financial markets are closed today, so expect volatile trading to continue for rest of the day.

More on the U.K. flooding which has pressured the pound in Monday’s trading. The U.K. Telegraph reported it is “too early” to estimate the cost of the flooding in the North of England, but economists warn that the current crisis could hamper Britain’s economic growth by up to 0.2pc.

A spokesman for the Association of British Insurers (ABI) told the Telegraph that there was no way of putting a figure on the cost of the current flooding crisis, which is affecting vast swathes of Northern England, from Hull to Lancashire.
PwC, the accountancy firm, also said that it was “too early to estimate losses” but said that an initial analysis of the economic impact of both Storm Desmond and Storm Eva showed an approximate cost of between £900m and £1.3bn, with the insurance industry bearing between £700m and £1bn of the total.

Britain’s insurance industry is more than capable of dealing with the crisis, the ABI claimed.
The trade body, which represents 250 insurers, accounting for over 90pc of the UK insurance market, is calling on all those affected to contacted their providers’ emergency hotlines.

106

[B] Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 Jan 2016 [/B] [I]09:34GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Cable pares intra-day rally after U.K. production data missed forecast. Reuters reported British factory growth slipped in December as new orders came in at the slowest pace in five months, according to a survey that showed scant sign of better fortunes for manufacturing this year after a tough 2015.

Monday’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to a three-month low of 51.9 from 52.5 in November, at the bottom end of expectations in a Reuters poll that forecast a reading of 52.7.

Manufacturing failed to contribute to Britain’s economic growth through the first three quarters of 2015, with the much larger services industry instead driving the recovery.

While an October surge in the factory PMI raised brief hopes of a manufacturing rebound in the fourth quarter, survey compiler Markit said a marginal positive contribution from the sector the now best that could be hoped for.

“The UK manufacturing sector ended 2015 on a disappointing note, with its rate of growth slowing further from October’s recent high back down towards the stagnation mark,” Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said.

107

[B] Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jan 2016 [/B] [I]1:10GMT
[/I]
[B]GBP/USD [/B]- … The pound continues its recent losing streak on Tuesday and fell to a near 9-month low of 1.4638 after market fear of a ‘Brexit’ grew after allowed his minister to campaign to leave the EU. Reuters reported
British Prime Minister David Cameron on Tuesday bowed to pressure to allow government ministers to campaign to leave the European Union in an upcoming referendum, heading off the prospect of multiple resignations from his top team.

Cameron wants to keep Britain in the bloc if he can persuade other EU leaders to agree to his demands for reform before a vote expected to take place later this year, though he has cautioned he could campaign to leave if he doesn’t get a deal.
His move to prevent cabinet-level resignations over Europe means ministers will take opposing sides in the referendum campaign over an issue that has divided Cameron’s Conservative Party for more than three decades.

Cameron said he hoped to reach a deal with other EU leaders at a Feb 17-18 summit. Ministers would be expected to stick to the government’s existing position until a deal was reached. A referendum could follow about four months after a deal.
A British exit would rock the Union - already shaken by differences over migration and the future of the euro zone - by ripping away its second-largest economy, one of its top two military powers and by far its richest city, London.

Pressed by lawmakers over his own future, Cameron - who has said he will not lead his party into the next parliamentary election due in 2020 - said he would not resign in the event of a ‘no’ vote in the EU referendum.
Europe played a major part in the downfall of two previous Conservative prime ministers, Margaret Thatcher and John Major.

Around a third of Cameron’s lawmakers may be at least toying with the idea of a British exit while up to a third of the cabinet - including Home Secretary Theresa May, Business Secretary Sajid Javid and Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith - have expressed Eurosceptic sentiments. Cameron’s former coalition partners the Liberal Democrats accused him of putting “internal party strife” above the national interest in letting ministers campaign for either side.

Nigel Farage, the leader of Britain’s anti-EU UK Independence Party, said Cameron had been forced into the move to hold his party together in the short term. “He has stopped an explosion but longer term it is going to be very split by this issue,” Farage told the BBC.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

Australia AIG services index, China service PMI, France consumer confidence, service PMI, Italy service PMI, Germany service PMI, Eurozone service PMI, producer prices, U.K. service PMI, Canada imports, exports, trade balance, U.S. mortgage applications, employment change, trade balance, service PMI, durable goods, non-defense capital and factory orders.

108

[B] Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Jan 2016[/B] [I] 03:35GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ....7... Although cable retreated to 1.4525 on active cross-selling in sterling after early intra-day rally rebound from a fresh 5-1/2 month trough of 1.4491 to 1.4604 in NY morning on Monday, price staged a bounce to 1.4569 in New York afternoon and then moved sideways afterwards.

Today’s focus for the British pound will be on the release of UK industrial data in European morning (09:30GMT), these include the industrial production and manufacturing output. Market expect the data to showed a contraction in the industry during the November.
In addition, BoE’s Mark Carney is scheduled to give a speech in a panel discussion at Farewell Symposium for Christian Noyer organised by Bank of France at 14:15GMT.

At the moment, offers are noted at 1.4560-70 n then 1.4590-00 with stops above there, whilst bids are noted at 1.4520-10 and around 1.4500 with stops just below 1.4490.

109

[B] Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jan 2016[/B] 10:02GMT

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... Cable finally gains in European morning after falling for many consecutive days on market jitter over possible 'Brexit'. Reuters just reported British voters may opt to leave the European Union if Prime Minister David Cameron holds a referendum on membership as early as June, Scottish nationalist leader Nicola Sturgeon has said, The Scotsman newspaper reported on Wednesday.

Cameron is pushing for a deal on new membership terms from other EU leaders before a referendum which he could call this summer, though opinion polls have shown that opposition to the European Union is growing in Britain.

Sturgeon was quoted by The Scotsman newspaper as saying that if the referendum was called in June there might be too little time to convince voters in the rest of Britain that EU membership was the right choice.
Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and of Scotland’s devolved government, said she was confident Scotland would vote to stay in the EU, but was now less sure about what the rest of the United Kingdom would decide, the paper reported.
Scotland has 5 million people, compared with England which has 53 million and represents about 84 percent of the population of the United Kingdom.

Scots voted 55-45 percent against independence in a referendum in 2014, but Sturgeon’s party then won 56 of the 59 seats representing Scotland in the national parliament in London in an election last May.
Scottish nationalists have repeatedly told Cameron that he cannot rule out giving Scotland another independence referendum, and that a situation in which Scots voted to stay in the EU but a majority of all Britons voted to leave could be a trigger.
Sturgeon has previously said there could only be another independence vote if a majority of Scots voted for a party which proposed one in a Scottish parliamentary election. Such an election is due in May this year.

110

[B] Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Jan 2016 [/B] [I]03:06GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ...... Despite rising to session high at 1.4340 in European morning yesterday, the British pound met renewed selling and tumbled sharply to a fresh 7-year trough at 1.4130 in New York morning, weighed down by dovish comments from BoE Governor Carney.

Cable briefly pared its losses and staged a short-covering rebound to 1.4198 in New York afternoon, renewed pressure there pushed the pair lower and price retreated to 1.4138 in Asian morning.

Pay attention to UK ILO unemployment rate and claimant count at 09:30GMT. Street forecasts are 5.2% and 2.5K vs previous readings of 5.2% n 3.9K respectively.
Traders should also look out for comments from BoE’s Carney, as he is scheduled to speak at 12:00GMT on the topic of rate expectations.

Offers are now lowered to 1.4160/70 and more above at 1.4180/90 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.4070/80, suggesting selling for a resumption of MT downtrend is the way to go.

111

[B] Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Jan 2016[/B] [I]04:13GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD[/B] - ..... Sterling is expected to gain respite in Thursday's session after yesterday's marginal weakness to a fresh 7-year trough of 1.4125 after release of mildly upbeat jobs growth but weak average earning, however, steady short-covering later lifted cable to 1.4219 in New York morning, despite a strong retreat to 1.4151 ahead of New York close, renewed buying in Australia pushed price back up to 1.4204 shortly after Asian open.

Looks like choppy sideways trading is in store and sterling’s intra-day gain vs eur & yen suggests buying the pound on dips is recommended.
However, unless price can close above 1.4219 later today, would be far more premature to call for a temporary bottom formation at 1.4125 as traders may start to rebuild short position ahead of release of key U.K. retail sales data on Friday which are expected to show very weak readings.

For now, some offers are tipped at 1.4210/20 with stops above there, bids re touted at 1.4160-50 with more stops reported below 1.4120.

112

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Feb 2016 [/B] [I]04:20GMT[/I]

[B]GBP/USD [/B]........Over the weekend, Reuters reported that a clear majority of Britons do not expect Prime Minister David Cameron to get a good deal in his renegotiation of Britain's EU membership terms, adding to the pressure on him ahead of next week's meeting of leaders.

Cameron is hoping to clinch a deal with his European Union peers at a summit on Feb. 18-19 which he can then put before the British public in a referendum on whether to remain in the 28-member bloc.

Opinion polls suggest the country is evenly divided on whether to stay or leave, and much could depend on how they view any final agreement achieved with the rest of the EU.

The latest ComRes survey for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror newspapers found that by nearly three to one, Britons were expecting that Cameron would not get a good deal for Britain.
That was the view of 58 percent of those polled, while only 21 percent thought he would get a good agreement. The survey also had a worrying message for those who want to stay in the EU and hope to use the argument that Britain’s economy will suffer if it leaves.
While 39 percent said they agreed Britain would be better off in the bloc, 36 percent felt the economy would be better off outside.

113

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Mar 2016 09:33GMT

GBP/USD - ....... Although the British pound traded with a firm bias in Asia and gained to 1.3980 at European open on cross-buying of sterling especially vs euro, price pared its gains n retreated sharply to 1.3909 in European morning after the release of downbeat UK manufacturing PMI.

Manufacturing activity in the U.K. expanded at the slowest rate in nearly three years in February.
In a report, market research group Markit said that its U.K. manufacturing PMI fell to a seasonally adjusted 50.8 last month from a reading of 52.9 in January.
Analysts had expected the index to inch down to 52.2 in February.

Offers are now seen at 1.3940/50 and more above at 1.3960/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3870/80, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias would be seen.

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114

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Mar 2016 02:28GMT

GBP/USD - ...... The Bank of England(BoE) is still more likely to raise interest rates than to cut them over the next two years, but it has plenty of scope to stimulate the economy if needed, said Martin Weale who is BoE policy maker, he challenged the view among some investors that central banks had run out of ammunition to boost their economies at a time when the world's recovery from the financial crisis has slowed.

He continued to say that If needed, the BoE could cut rates below their current record low of 0.5 percent or launch a new round of quantitative easing, possibly purchasing private-sector assets.
Banks in London have also backed staying in and last week the City of London, the municipal authority for the financial district, also formally supported staying.

On news about Brexit, sources have said that U.S. banks Morgan Stanley and Citi have said there could be a backlash against Britain as a financial centre if it left the EU. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have made donations to the campaign to keep Britain in.
London mayor Boris Johnson, who is campaigning to pull Britain out of the EU, has said leaving would be a “golden opportunity” and has dismissed “threats” from banks to relocate from London.
While Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said less favourable exit terms under a Brexit would see some banking operations move to Ireland or continental Europe.

TheCityUK said if Britain left, it could not be assumed that EU regulators would be able to live with big EU financial services businesses maintaining their current level of assets in London if markets there were subject to different rules.
heCityUK also represents related services like accounting and law firms, which, together with the banks, employ some 2.2 million people.
The finance industry accounts for nearly 12 percent of the British economy and pays 66 billion pounds ($93.75 billion) a year in tax, making it the biggest contributor to government coffers of any business sector.

TheCityUK, which has already stated that Britain is better off staying in the EU, listed the drawbacks of any potential alternatives to membership, such as still having to contribute money to the EU for access to the single market while having no say over its financial rules.

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115

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Mar 2016 02:01GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable fell at New Zealand open on Monday and weakened to intra-day low of 1.4430 on renewed 'Brexit' concern. British PM David Cameron was forced into a hasty cabinet reshuffle on Saturday as the dramatic resignation of a senior minister threatened to widen divisions over Europe within the ruling Conservative party.

The rancorous departure of Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith, a leading campaigner for Britain to quit the European Union, also deals a blow to the political ambitions of finance minister George Osborne, commentators said.
Cameron and Osborne are both urging Britons to vote to remain in the EU in a June 23 referendum but many Conservative lawmakers and activists favour a “Brexit”. The issue has riven the party for decades.

Duncan Smith in his resignation letter on Friday, cited cuts to disability benefits outlined in Osborne’s annual budget last week, which also included tax cuts for richer households. He complained about pressure from the Treasury to cut welfare payments in order to meet fiscal conditions set out by Osborne.

Reuters reported a British vote to leave the European Union could cost the economy 100 billion pounds ($145 billion) and 950,000 jobs by 2020, according to research commissioned by employers’ group the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

The CBI said “Brexit” would deliver a serious shock to the British economy, regardless of any trade deals the country could negotiate with its former European partners.

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116

Short 1.4136 / SL 1.4172 / C 1.3960 waiting for my target to hit…

gbpusd 3-28-16.png433×612 37.1 KB

117

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
31 Mar 2016 00:30GMT

A survey by Reuters showed on Thursday that British consumers remain their least confident in more than a year as they worry about the country’s European Union referendum and the euro zone’s unresolved economic problems.
Market research firm GfK said its overall consumer sentiment indicator stood at zero in March, unchanged from February and its joint lowest level since December 2014. Overall the survey showed consumers were less willing to spend on big-ticket items than in February.

Britain’s consumers have been the key driver of the country’s economic recovery over the past three years.
Joe Staton, head of market dynamics at GfK, said that despite good economic headlines about low inflation, interest rates and prices in the shops, concerns about Brexit and the ongoing euro zone crisis appear to be hitting home.
Optimism among consumers about the economy over the next 12 months was 18 points lower than in March 2015 at -12.

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has warned repeatedly that the country faces a “dangerous mixture” of risks from the world economy.
Economists say the government’s decision to hold the EU referendum is another, home-grown, risk which is likely to hurt confidence in the run-up to the vote on June 23.
If voters decide to leave the bloc, Britain will probably suffer a hit to growth, at least in the short term, most economists say.

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118

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Apr 2016 09:31GMT

[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ...... Britain's economy appears to have slowed since the start of this year as worries about the global economy, government spending cuts and a vote on staying in the European Union take their toll, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.

Financial data company Markit said its Purchasing Managers Index for services recovered only slightly last month after reaching its lowest in nearly three years in February.
Official data last week showed Britain’s economy did slightly better than thought at the end of 2015, but the Markit figures, which economists use as a guide to future official numbers, suggest 2016 got off to a weak start.

Combined with sub-par readings for manufacturing and construction, Markit said its service PMI pointed to a fall in quarterly economic growth in the first three months of 2016 to 0.4 percent, from 0.6 percent in the final three months of 2015.
Britain’s economy grew 2.3 percent last year. Government forecasters expect growth to slow to 2.0 percent in 2016.
Britain will hold a referendum on whether to leave the EU on June 23.
A poll of businesses on Monday showed the possibility of a vote in favour of leaving is causing companies to put investment plans on hold.

The weaker growth forecasts left finance minister George Osborne hunting for savings in last month’s budget.

The Markit/CIPS services PMI - which covers the private-sector services that make up about 40 percent of Britain’s economy - rose to 53.7 in March from February’s near three-year low of 52.7, in line with economists’ expectations.
Monday’s construction PMI and Friday’s survey of manufacturers were lacklustre, too.
The combined index for the three measures inched up to 53.7 in March from 52.9.

Services generated new business at the slowest rate since January 2013, and the readings for hiring and business expectations were among the weakest in the past three years.

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119

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Apr 2016 10:06GMT

GBP/USD - .... Cable resumes recent decline after after meeting renewed selling at 1.4171 (Asia) and penetrated yesterday's 1.4122 low to a 1-week bottom of 1.4094 in Europe on active selling of sterling vs usd, eur and yen.

The lack of an intra-day rebound suggests downside bias remains for marginal weakness ahead of U.S. open.
However, traders reported a fairly good buying interest above previous sup at 1.4056-53.

Offers are tipped at 1.4120/30 and more above with stops above 1.4175, suggesting selling the pound on recovery is still favoured.

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120

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Apr 2016 03:12GMT

GBP/USD - ...... The British pound rallied after a brief retreat from 1.4145 to 1.4108 in European morning on Monday and then rallied to a high of 1.4287 in New York morning due to active cross-buying in sterling especially versus euro. Later, price retreated to 1.4230 in  New York afternoon, then marginally lower to 1.4227 ahead of Asian open on Tuesday.

Today will sell the release of a slew of economic data from UK during European session, these include CPI, RPI, PPI and DCLG house prices.
Market expects the inflation in UK to rise with a monthly rate of 0.3% in March compare to 0.2% in preceding month, whilst RPI to drop to 0.3% last month vs 0.5% in February. Having said that, investors should pay attention to the latest PPI readings as it may paint a mixed picture to the economic outlook with its variations in input and output.

At the moment, bids are noted at 1.4220-10 and more at 1.4200-1.4190, then 1.4180-70 with stops below 1.4160.
On the upside, offers are reported at 1.4250-60 and 1.4270-80 with stops above 1.4300.

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