All EU need to know about Brexit.... So Far

Brexit… EU better get EUsed to it (Part 1)

Let’s talk about Brexit, I can imagine your first thought is ‘let’s not’, however, understanding the ins and outs of what has happened so far could give you the edge in the markets and potentially help make a success of the outcome after this long and tedious Brexit process.

Let’s start like any good story; from the beginning. The first question you might ask is ‘When did Britain join the EU?’, well that’s a very interesting question as Britain did not formally ever join the EU in its current state. In 1973, Britain joined the European Economic Community (EEC), which function was to serve as an economic union between multiple countries, bringing about a common market and a customs union in Europe. This was Britain’s third attempt to join the EEC, the previous two requests were vetoed by French President Charles De Gaul. One of the reasons for this veto was due to Britain’s historical close ties with the United States, De Gaul fearing Britain would effectively act as an agent in the European common market on behalf of the US, allowing the US to have too much influence in European economic affairs.

Ted heath signing EU
(Source: The Guardian)

The Treaty of Accension was signed by United Kingdom in January 1972 and came into effect in January 1973 formally Britain had now joined the EEC. This same treaty was signed by various other nations with a notable addition being Ireland. EEC membership was popularly supported by the British public displayed by a referendum in 1975 on membership to the EEC producing a remain majority result: 63% vs 33%. Moving forward a few decades to 1992, the Maastricht treaty was signed which bought about further integration between EEC members and led to the formation of the European community (EC), this transitioned Britain’s membership from a purely economic union to a political union. Furthermore, in 2009 a further transition occurred within the EC through the Treaty of Lisbon allowing the formation of the European Union (EU) as we know it today .

After the formation of the EU, tension between Britain and the now EU started to become more prominent within British politics and everyday society with a specific focus on aspects of the Lisbon Treaty that many were unhappy with, including some MPs. Growing discontentment towards the EU from the public had been brewing for many years indicated by the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) in 1993. In 2014 UKIPs support seemed to rapidly grow with the party winning the 2014 European elections winning approximately 27.5% of the national vote. This success was further reiterated in the 2015 general election with UKIP receiving 12.6% of all votes.

In the 2015 general election the EU was one of the main focuses with many political parties supporting a referendum on Britain’s EU membership. The outcome of the election was a Conservative majority winning 331 seats whilst securing 36.9% of votes. One of the key policies in the Conservative party manifesto was the guarantee of a referendum on Britain’s membership to the EU once David Cameron had attempted to renegotiate parts of the Lisbon treaty he felt were the issue. These issues specifically focused on immigration and the ability to opt out of further treaties which would bring Britain and the EU into a closer union. In February 2016, Cameron announced renegotiation’s had concluded and formally announced a date for an EU referendum allowing the British public to decide on Britain’s membership to the EU on the 23rd of June 2016…

Cameron EU flag
Source: Daily Express

Thank you for reading, return for Part II which will continue from where we left off

Sources: BBC.co.uk, The Guardian, Daily Express

Disclaimer
This article is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase, or to subscribe for any investment. The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions. The author of this article is not a registered financial advisor. Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Authors have taken information from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond our control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader precautions to ensure the accuracy of the information provided. Information collected and presented accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial and investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

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This is a great insight into the whole ordeal from the beginning! Will definitely be keeping posted for part 2!

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I love this post! Educational and interesting. Most def will keep my eye out for PART2!

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Source:FT

Can EU show me the Br-exit? (Part II)

Before reading this article make sure you read Part I (Brexit…EU better get EUsed to it),

Let’s Start

The build up to the referendum on the 23rd of June would be arguably one of the most politically heated time periods in British history. The question to either ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’ truly divided the nation. The remain campaign was popularly supported by key government figures such as David Cameron, George Osborne and many Cabinet members. Whilst the ‘Leave’ campaign was primary led by Nigel Farage (former UKIP leader), Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom. Both campaigns were divisive with facts and figures being quoted from ‘experts’ with the media buoying the behaviour of both sides. This culminated into very strong opinions being formed on both sides of the argument. One promise that was particularly emphasised on by the ‘Leave’ campaign was the £350 million that the UK pays per week to be part of the EU which could be better spent on national services such as the NHS. Promises such as these were thrown around by both campaigns which is one of the reasons there was so much national division. One interesting point I would like to touch on is the demographics of the votes. It is widely accepted that the younger generation tended to lean towards ‘remain’ whilst the ‘grey’ voters were majority ‘leave’. This difference in voting patterns between ages led to outlandish and derogatory statements, in addition both of these demographics accused the other of ignorance. This difference in opinion amongst the two generations added to the tension and divide in the UK.

On June the 24 2016 it was formally announced that the result of the referendum was a majority of 51.9% vs 48.1% to leave the EU with an extremely high turnout of 71.8%. Whilst the votes were being counted and constituencies announcing the local result at different times, GBP weakened. GBP/USD fell over the course of approximately 7 hours from $1.5000 to the moves low of $1.3200 resulting in a move of 1,800 pips. This result seemed to come as a shock to many, especially those in the establishment and this can clearly be seen by the dramatic fall in GBP value. Almost immediately after the result was formally announced, both Cameron and Osborne announced they would resign forcing a leadership election within the Conservative party, which eventually instated Theresa May as the Prime minister. Although May did not actively support either campaign during the run up to the referendum, it is popularly believed that she voted remain in the referendum. This brings up the issue of if May was ever the right person to lead Britain on the path to respect the referendum and leave the EU. The department for Exiting the European Union was also created in July 2016 with David Davis being appointed as the minister of this department which could have been seen as an indication that the government have a strong intention of leaving the EU.


GBP/USD 5min chart showing the 1,800pip move after the referendum result was announced.

On 29 March 2017 the vote for the invocation of Article 50 begun. This vote was necessary due to the ‘Millar case’ which verdict was that Article 50 needed to go through parliament before it can be legally enforced. The vote to invoke article 50 went through with 498 votes for and 114 against, winning by a majority of 384, allowing May to invoke article 50. The ‘For’ votes included almost all of the Conservative MPs, and the majority of the Labour party with around a 3:1 ratio of Labour MPs voting ‘for’ the motion compared to ‘against’. Whilst members of the Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru voted against the invocation. Article 50 being invoked began Britain’s withdrawal from the EU setting a 2-year time period for a ‘deal’ to be agreed by the Britain and the EU, Tim barrow delivered the hand signed letter to Donald Tusk to formally inform the EU of Britain’s withdrawal with Britain’s official ‘leave’ date of 29 March 2019 being set.

Shortly after on the 18 April 2017, May called for a general election on June 8 2017. In my opinion, the reason for this was due to popularity polls showing an extremely popular Conservative party and a relatively weak opposition and in an attempt to boost the Conservative majority in the house; consequently any EU deals she proposed to the house had a greater chance of getting passed. Following a weak campaign by the Conservative party, including a lacklustre manifesto and a very strong Labour campaign, the Conservative majority shrunk by 13 seats whilst the Labour opposition grew by 30 seats. This result led to the Conservatives relying on the Democratic Unionist Party’s (DUP) support to pass legislation, not forming a coalition but a ‘Confidence and Supply’ relationship. This reliance on the DUP would later prove problematic in EU negotiations.


Source: BBC.co.uk

After the Conservatives had licked their wounds from what felt like a demoralising defeat, the next task on the agenda for May was BREXIT.

Thank you for reading, return for Part III which will continue from where we left off

Sources: BBC.co.uk, FT.com

Disclaimer
This article is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase, or to subscribe for any investment. The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions. The author of this article is not a registered financial advisor. Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Authors have taken information from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond our control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader precautions to ensure the accuracy of the information provided. Information collected and presented accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial and investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

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Brexit negotiations cartoon
Source: The Telegraph

Be careful when making a 'Deal’​ with the Devil (Part III)

Now, this is where the battle begins, negotiating for Britain you have:


Source: The Independent
David Davis (Above) the appointed Minister for the newly created Exiting the European Union Department. Oliver Robbins (Bottom right), the Permanent Secretary for the Exiting the EU Department. Tim Barrows (Bottom middle), a career diplomat and the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the EU. Finally, Sarah Healey (Bottom left), the Director General of the Exiting the EU Department.
UK negotiating team editted
Source: BBC

Source: BBC
Whilst negotiating for the EU you have: Michel Barnier (Top left), a seasoned French diplomat and politician serving as the Chief Negotiator for the EU in the Brexit negotiations. Sabine Weyand (Top right), described as ‘one of the commissions best and brightest’ by Jean-Claude Juncker and is the Deputy Negotiator for the EU in Brexit discussions. Donald Tusk (Top middle right) former Prime Minister of Poland and current President of the European Council. Another notable figure is Guy Verhofstadt (Below), the Chief Brexit Coordinator in the European Parliament and the former President of Belgium although he is not directly involved in Brexit negotiations he is a very prominent figure in the European Parliament.
Source: The Standard

Lastly not to forget the EU ring leader who brought together this team, Jean-Claude Juncker (Below) the current President of the European Commission. Before I move on I would like to make one point; I believe this team fielded by the EU displays perfectly the utter bureaucracy which exists within the EU. With many of the EU representatives being former high ranking politicians or acting at an executive level for their respective countries, this shows that once these individuals have been deselected, they have simply moved into a position within the European Union allowing these individuals to consolidate their personal power, wealth and influence. Rant over let’s move on.


Source: The Independent

Negotiations

In June 2017, Britain’s negotiators arrived in Brussels to begin discussions on the Withdrawal of Britain from the EU otherwise known as the ‘Withdrawal agreement’. Negotiations were concluded in November 2018 and an agreement was established. This agreement was passed by the 27 EU Member States and was to be bought before the UK Parliament. This deal from here on out will now be referred to as ‘May’s Deal’. We will now move onto the key talking points and policies within ‘May’s Deal’. The withdrawal agreement itself is a massive 599 pages and I’m very sure most people do not have the time to read it so hopefully, this breakdown is a quick read in comparison to the agreement itself.

May’s Deal only covers the departure of the UK from the EU and not the future relationship between the EU and the UK. The future relationship will be further discussed during the dubbed ‘Transition Period’. This ‘Transition Period’ otherwise known as the ‘Implementation Period’ will last 21 months. During this period the UK will need to follow EU rules yet lose its current privileges it receives being within the EU, such as a veto. This period can be extended if necessary but can only be extended for one or two year periods and must be agreed to by both parties. Additionally, the UK will also remain under the jurisdiction of the European Council throughout the duration of the ‘Transition Period’. The reason for this ‘Transition Period’ is to allow both the UK and EU to adapt to their new relationship and develop how they will work together in the future. The next topic is money, in leaving the EU the UK has certain obligations in terms of contributions towards the EU still left outstanding. These settlements are summarised into the dubbed ‘Divorce Bill’ and this includes all the financial compensation for these outstanding payments. Although a monetary amount is not directly mentioned in the 599 page document the figure is thought to be in excess of £39 billion. The next topic is citizens’ rights, the current rights for residency are to be maintained for both UK and EU immigrants with current citizens to be granted residency in their respective countries. In my opinion, this is more of an ethical issue rather than a political one so whether the deal goes through or not these conditions are expected to be maintained.
theresa May- telegraph
Source: The Telegraph

The next subject is the ‘Backstop’; unless you have been living under a rock, you would have heard the term but what is the backstop? The backstop is a part of the ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ that exists in an attempt to stop a hard border forming between Northern and Southern Ireland. The relationship between Northern and Southern Ireland has had a mixed past since being partitioned by the Government of Ireland Act which came into effect in 1921. Relations have been fractured in Ireland for many years for various reasons such as religious differences and opposition to the union with the rest of the United Kingdom. This led to the formation of groups such as the IRA, an Irish terrorist group. In order to solve this, ‘The Good Friday Agreement’ dictated how Northern Island should be governed and the ‘backstop’ could compromise that agreement. At the end of the ‘Transition Period’, if no further trade deal has been agreed between the UK and EU, the UK will enter a single customs territory with the EU. This will prevent the UK from gaining an unfair advantage over the other EU Member States whilst remaining within the same customs territory. Northern Ireland will be more closely aligned with EU regulations than the rest of the UK to prevent the creation of a hard border. This creates a problematic situation firstly this could lead to a potential rift between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK further damaging the union. Moreover, one of the overwhelming problems with the current ‘Backstop Agreement’ is that the UK cannot unilaterally choose to leave the ‘Backstop’. Instead, in order for the UK to leave the ‘Backstop’ and effectively leave the EU, it would require the consent of the EU and its Member States, any of which could veto a leave proposal. In turn, effectively trapping the UK within the EU indefinitely. Finally, fishing rights are yet to be agreed.
Tony blair signing
Source: The BBC, The British Prime Minister Tony Blair (Left) and the Irish Prime Minster Bertie Ahern (Right) signing The Good Friday Agreement


A graph showing GBP/USD since November 20th 2015 until present day with key dates labelled at the time in which they occurred

During this period of negotiations David Davis stood down as the Minister for Exiting the EU and was replaced by Dominic Raab; with Raab standing down a few months after his appointment.

Although the topics mentioned are not all the topics covered in ‘May’s deal’ these are the topics causing the most debate in the UK and leading to party splits, especially within the Conservative party.

ITS TIME TO VOTE…

Thank you for reading, return for Part IV which will continue from where we left off

Sources: BBC.co.uk, TheStandard.co.uk, TheTelegraph.co.uk, TheGuardian.co.uk, TheIndependent.co.uk

Disclaimer
This article is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase, or to subscribe for any investment. The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions. The author of this article is not a registered financial advisor. Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Authors have taken information from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond our control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader precautions to ensure the accuracy of the information provided. Information collected and presented accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial and investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

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Great round up of figures who have significant impact on negotiations. Will be keeping an eye out for these names in the news @Liam.Sharvell

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That was the original backstop - BBC has it correct:

The EU originally proposed a backstop that would mean Northern Ireland staying in the EU customs union, large parts of the single market and the EU VAT system.

Its chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, continually emphasised that this backstop could only apply to Northern Ireland.

The PM was ready to sign in Dec 2017 but was told in a phone call to DUP that they would not accept same (DUP hold up the minority UK govt) - the PM returned from Brussels having not signed - she later signed up to an all UK backstop in an attempt to get the DUP on board.

The backstop would kick in only if there is no trade agreement at the end of the Transition Period, and since it’s purpose is to negate a hard border then it can only cease to exist if something else is created (like a trade EU/UK trade deal).

The EU view is that the backstop is meaningless if it dissolves after a period or can be unilaterally dissolved by any party with nothing in it’s place.

Wiki:
Each new President is nominated by the European Council and formally elected by the European Parliament

The EU parliament is made up from MEP’s each of whom are elected by voters in their respective member countries.

The EU Council is made up of the 28 heads of Gov (all elected by their respective countries) these then elect their President who must not be an office holder in a member state. The President does not have voting rights.

Guy is an elected MEP since 2009.

Is a diplomat and a trade negotiator for EU

Michel Barnier is a civil servant in the EU, conducted most negotiations with his UK counterpart Ollie Robbins (both unelected)

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This is great post, thank you for sharing it on this forum. Very informative, so all traders who are not aware why Brexit is so much discussed, it should be clear that it is huge deal for both EU and UK. Although there is currently high market uncertainty, hopefully everything will end just fine

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Thank you for the feedback, Hopefully, talks reach a constructive conclusion allowing this uncertainty to come to an end


Source: Metro

’Deal or No Deal’​ - Part IV

Britain’s negotiators returned to the UK with ‘May’s Deal’ in November 2018. This deal was agreed to by the EU negotiators and needed to be ratified by Westminster. If the deal was to pass, Britain would officially leave the EU on the 29th of March under the terms set out in the agreement. The defining vote on the validity of the deal was set for the 11th of December 2018. However, this date would be postponed and rearranged to the 15th of January 2019. The decision to postpone the vote by May was down to the feeling that her deal would be resoundingly rejected by the House and a delay would give May more time to lobby for support to pass her deal. During this phase, May would place emphasis on convincing her own backbenchers including the European Research Group (ERG). The ERG are a group of Conservative MPs, chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg, the group are seen as Euro-sceptics with most of its members supporting a ‘Hard’ or ‘No Deal’ Brexit.
Jacob rees Mogg - The telegraph
Source: The Telegraph

The Government’s stance towards the Brexit procedure throughout this period was it’s ‘May’s Deal or No Deal’, meaning if her deal was not approved by parliament the UK would leave the EU on the 29th of March 2019 with ‘No Deal’. This stance was seen by many MPs as a scare tactic to force through a ‘lacklustre’ deal. One point I would like to touch on is that much of the House at this time still seemed to favour a remain result in the 2016 referendum with a large majority of those MPs calling for a second referendum stating that ‘People didn’t know what they were voting for’ due to lies told by the ‘Leave’ campaign. However, this position is absurd and unproductive, the manipulation of facts are the norm in nearly all modern day political campaigns with many false promises being made by both sides. This is just a fault in the political landscape that currently exists, bolstered by what the media choose to publicise. Although I do not personally agree with this tactic, it is effective at swaying votes. This effectiveness was evident in the differences between the Labour and the Conservative election campaigns in 2017.

On the 15th of January the ‘First’ Meaningful Vote took place resulting in a majority of 230 votes against ‘May’s deal’, 432 vs 202. This result should have made it clear to the government that ‘May’s deal’ is not considered good enough by the vast majority of MPs. After the demoralising defeat, there were doubts being cast towards May’s leadership and power with the Commons. On the 12th of March 2019, a second Meaningful Vote was conducted, this vote was once again on ‘May’s deal’ with May highlighting the slogan ‘My Deal or No Deal’. This vote resulted in another defeat for the government with 242 Mps voting ‘For’ the deal, a marginal increase from the previous vote, and 391 Mps voting ‘Against’. After another humiliating defeat for the government and Theresa May surely it would be clear that ‘May’s deal’ is not an acceptable one and couldn’t possibly be brought back for a third time?

Due to the second Meaningful Vote being rejected by parliament, the government were forced to bring forward a motion which would essentially rule out any type of ‘No Deal’ Brexit. This was separated into two votes: One vote calling for a so called ‘Managed No Deal Brexit’ which failed to pass through parliament. The second vote, which was to block a ‘No Deal’ Brexit under any circumstances, passed 312 to 308. The approval of this amendment was another embarrassing result for May with both her deal and No deal being rejected by parliament voiding May’s favourite slogan altogether.

Theresa MaY - TELEGRPAH file
Source: The Telegraph

Thank you for reading, return for Part V which will continue from where we left off

Sources: BBC.co.uk, TheTelegraph.co.uk, Metro.co.uk

Disclaimer
This article is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase, or to subscribe for any investment. The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions. The author of this article is not a registered financial advisor. Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Authors have taken information from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond our control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader precautions to ensure the accuracy of the information provided. Information collected and presented accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial and investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

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Very insightful for people who aren’t too sure about this whole Brexit process, look forward to part 5!

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This is a great round up for us a very complex situation. Thank you Liam

Thank you for your feedback, much appreciated

UK’s financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will allow for UK stock market participants to access EU stock markets following the same rules as before Brexit

This comes as a stark contrast to the measures from the other side of La Manche. European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) have stated that they will not allow EU companies to trade on London markets or any other venue under the jurisdiction of the FCA in the event of a no-deal Brexit. This hard-line stance has been reinforced from 2019 and has only recently been slightly relaxed when the ESMA created an exception for EU companies that trade their shares in Pound Sterling. This exception encompasses quite the small number of entities, however.