Great thread. I’m riding the trend. 200 pips up already. It’s currently found support on the 100 sma for the 4 hourly although its a little while before the candle closes and the 4 hourly approaching over bought. Overall its still looking bullish with the hidden divergence on stochastic at the double bottom on the hourly.
I personally wouldn’t touch it now until the NZD rate decision is out. The double bottom on the daily chart is clearly defined, and will close this way. However, if the bank of New Zealand are hawkish we will certainly see the pair pullback… Possible a continuation of trend, but there doesn’t seem to be too much to support a much greater drop.
The Official Cash Rate report for NZD is about to come out. I hear it has been the same for quiet some time. Is it safe to assume that it will not effect anything if it stays with the same numbers?
Depends if they follow up with any statements… These will cause a reaction… If there is one
I just read the following on one of the websites:
On balance, a ‘hold’ decision from the RBNZ tomorrow is likely to favour the ‘Kiwi’, as a fair minority investors will be ‘pricing-in’ a cut. A ‘no change’ decision could therefore send GBP NZD back down towards a new 11-month low at 1.8747. Conversely, a surprise cut by the RBNZ would trigger a pronounced recovery for GBP NZD, with Boxing Day’s 1.9785 proving an upside target for the pair.
So what they are saying is that if it stays the same, it will continue down. And they project it to stay the same. You are right, a good place to get out and see what happens.
I forgot to check the news and got back in long…70 pips ago =( Rookie mistake.
well, I’ll hold the larger stop loss and hope it’s just a retracement.
Sorry to hear that. I also hope its just a retracement but I also couldn’t resist scalping it for 35 pips 
At the moment it is a wait and see. I am viewing 18875-18890 as an important area of support. There has been some hawkish noises from RBNZ, which has caused the initial reaction.
Well, that was a weird night. Can anyone explain this pairs behavior for the London/US session?
Hi All,
Is anyone trading this method the way it was first laid out waaaay back in post #1? I’ve just come across this thread and have only spent a very short time checking it out, but some things occur to me:
- Trading the Daily or 4H charts make for a much less stressful time as opposed to trading the lower time frames
- If you stick to the 4H and (especially) the Daily charts, the impact of news is minimal to none if using a respectable S/L
- The potential gains are greater with less effort
- The system outlined here is sooo simple if you can draw an accurate Trend Line: ride the trend, get out when it breaks.
That’s the way I see it and am interested on what others think of the original method and its pros and cons. Thanks!
You are exactly correct. This is a take-it-easy strategy. No need to be checking things more often than the close\open of the 4 hour candles-you can set up an alert on the trendline, with medisoft’s EA, if you want, by having it not trade, but just send the alert.
Still hanging on the buy, and waiting for a trend to get going, which it will, eventually. When you win 600-800 pips, it’s worth the wait.
Thanks Pip! Do you primarily trade the 4H chart or do you still trdae the Daily and go to the 4H when the daily is ranging? Thanks again!
Hey pip. Why are you so sure that it wont finally break that support that it tested in several occasions and head down? I could understand after the break out of the trend on the way down but right now it looks so very uncertain. What am i not seeing?
Oh, it could definitely do that, anything is possible. Generally speaking, we are somewhat close to a “virgin” area of price. When price refuses to go below a certain point repeatedly, it is established to be a strong support. The downward trendlines on both 4 hour and monthly charts has been broken, while the horizontal resistance line is pretty much holding.
This means the highest probability is that the price will go up.
I have my SL below the last swing low, so if price hits it, I will open a sell trade, and cautiously ride that move down. The risk reward is appropriate for this position.
Also, I’ve got a new bull trendline that price is respecting.
I only ever trade off the 4hr or daily, but I go to lower timeframe for entry once higher has confirmed.
Today has been a good day for GBP/NZD. Last night the RBNZ were hawkish in their rate decision comments. Naturally the pair rallied a little. However, the GBP managed to pull price back to the opening price, so there is buying interest there. The trend line break is still valid and the daily double bottom is still confirmed. I have an order to open above today’s high.
My only consideration is the correlation between GBP/NZD and GBP/USD and tomorrow is NFP’S so whipsawing is likely. Hopefully the trend will get its act together tomorrow or Monday once the news is out of the way.
And the News strikes again. 50 pip hit and counting.
With all the news about GBP weakening and them not doing anything about it I’m beginning to wonder if it will come back up the same way it’s come down.
Yeah, also if you look at 1h chart it keeps drawing lower lows.
So, my buy SL was hit for -100 pip loss, and now I have a sell open. Only 200 pips down to the lowest price ever, so a good break below that is probable cause for continuation down.
edit: make that 34 pips away…from 1.85410
This is being widely noticed…
johnkicklighter - $GBPNZD now stands just off recent record lows. http://stks… | StockTwits
So, where do you expect it to turn? what’s your TP?
I don’t place an actual TP, we’ll just keep the sell open and see what happens with price action, to be safe, drawing a downward trendline can help place a stop, just in case. About 200 pip in money already.