(ALMOST) Perfect Swing Trading using Trendlines

Hey, you say you want a move of 600-1000 points. During that time there will be fake outs. Would you exit on them and get back in after the trend is reconfirmed or there are certain things that tell you that it is an actual fake out?

Spartakden,

What about scaling in to a large position?? You believe support is holding and have whatever signal you believe is required to go longā€¦ You take a small position, say $4. Itā€™s small as this is the highest risk location to try and counter trend. You then see price go up and break out. It then sells off a little and the previous resistance becomes support. You place your first position at break even and take another small long when price action breaks away from the new support. Then you look for a rising trebling and price action to touch it and reject it long. All the while ou are moving your two positions up to trap in pips, whilst giving the trade room to breath. You see price action rejecting the trend line and take out another small long and ride the trend. Your only big risk is that first tradeā€¦ Maybe the second if itā€™s a fake out or a retrace of a downtrendā€¦ But you could easily be riding a 700 pip move with an average of $10 per pipā€¦

mtaylor do you ever come by the baby pips chat room? I would like to talk to you more about it. Pop in whenever you got some time, thank you :slight_smile:

what you said is called ā€œbuy the dipsā€, ā€œadd to winnersā€, ā€œscale inā€. I think it is a good practice in a trend. I do it with very good results. You must be sure that the trend is strong have solid reasoning about why it is still there.

If you are right and add to winners, you can end the trade with huge profits!

But be careful. First, define what is a winner for you. If you donā€™t know what a winner is, then you can end adding to losers.

On stocks ā€œadding to losersā€ combined with ā€œadding to winnersā€ means ā€œdollar cost averagingā€ and works pretty well, but that donā€™t work with forex.

fakeouts in longer time frames are less frequent :wink:

If you use big stops and trail them using last support, you can reach +300 pips easy.

Right, if I make and entry that I think is a break, then if the SL is hit, I will stand aside and wait for another opportunityā€¦
so far, the price broke a trendline, and has reversed to dance back down the top of itā€¦and it has hit the low, so putting in a buy as close to this low, should setup very good RR for an uptrend. And 100 pip SL is well below the last swing low, as has been pointed outā€¦I personally will still use it because this pair has high spread, the last low was right at support, so pretty low. Again, the ranging going on is very rare in this pairā€¦just look at the daily chart, ranging can go on for a bit, but eventually this pair, because of things like correlation, fundamentals, will begin itā€™s giant trend swings and the money will pour inā€¦:smiley:

@ Spartakden,

yes I am often on here, more so in the winter months as I am a pilot and have plenty off time then! I dont know what level of forex you are at but if you are keen to join a move early I have a way that can be really effectiveā€¦
You need to understand support/resistance.
Candlestick patterns - bearish/bullish engulfing, Doji, morning star/evening star, double tops/bottoms.
Fibonacci ratioā€™s.
Trend lines.
Break out with retests that fail.

So you want to go long GBP/NZD but there is no clear bullish or bearish bias presently. It is basically consolidating before its next big move. So you go to a daily chart and zoom out so you can see lots of historical data. You then draw horizontal lines @
previous days open/ close/ high/ low
previous weekly open/ close/ high/ low
Any other major support / resistance zones that could become relevant. If its a major zone it will carry gret weight.

Next go to a 15 minute chart and plot the latest fibonacci swing retracement. Does it correlate with a horizontal line you have plotted? ie, today I looked at EUR/USD on the 15 minute chart a bullish Doji formed at the 50% retracement which was consistent with a significant support zone from last week. I went long and nailed 50 pipsā€¦ I must stress it doesnt often work that easy, but this method of using all the tools I have mentioned can be a great way to join a move with minimal risk and small stop loss. You are basically looking for a reaction around a level that had been respected. If there is a trend in place only trade in the direction of the higher timeframes trend.

I will look to do this with GBP/NZD going into the rate decision and aim to get to break even as soon as possible to get me in the market, be it long or short.

This method will require a lot of patience and you will have to keep plotting lines and monitoing currency pairs. I think in time you will find it of great use!!

Feel free to chat anytime

Ok, letā€™s day it does go up. Would you move your stop loss up or maybe use a trailing stop instead?

Hey thanks a lot. Yeah I am fairly new but I somewhat know everything u mentioned but barely. I will def look into all of that. Still a lot to learn. I will stick here with you guys, feel like I have a higher chance for success this way :slight_smile:

May I ask you if you already did the Pipsoligy School?

I am in high school part of it.

GBP/USD has recently broken out of a downward trendline on the 4hr chart. It is reacting around a trendline that has been in tact for a very long time ( on weekly ). I believe this has significance. FOMC rate decision looming so I am approaching with caution. Looking for price action on a lower time frame to give me a signal

The thing about the GBP\NZD is itā€™s a cross of GBP\USD and NZD\USD, and these two pairs are pretty correlated. There is a difference in pip value between them, so even when they both go up and down together, the GBP\NZD doesnā€™t stay perfectly flat, but trends, also. And when the correlation breaks up for a bit we get faster moves. GBP has had a steady decline against the dollar, but the NZD has been ranging, so itā€™s causing this pair, GBPNZD to also range.

Hey Is it possible to send private messages over this forum? I was trying to send you one but couldnā€™t find a button for it :frowning:

My macfibo indicator flipped on the eur/nzd before gbp/nzd so I got in and just nabbed 37 pips. I got out on the .618 retracement, also because itā€™s approaching a resistance level (1.6220).

I got in on gbp/nzd at 1.8850. The .618 retracement is 1.89, so thatā€™s my TP right now. I would be ecstatic to get 50 on this. Also, I think around that point itā€™ll dip a little and Iā€™ll get back in after the dip. Weā€™ll see what happens when I wake up in the morning.

Hope plenty of people have jumped in on the actionā€¦ Unfortunately I didnā€™t go to bed until 2am and have missed initial entry ( gutted ). However, the 4 hr double bottom is confirmed and the daily double bottom is forming nicely! The multiple timeframe confirmation maybe very powerful and this could possibly be indicative of a bottom in place! At this point I really like the look of this trade!

I wish I would have had a trailing stop. I almost put one in instead of a TP. So, I made 50 on it - made a total of 98 between the two pairs yesterday! Howā€™s that for a confidence boost?

My only concern is that 1.90 is a resistance point. It hit that on the 28th and dropped massively and it stalled at that point on the 21st on itā€™s way down.

I think weā€™re going downā€¦ shortlyā€¦

Might do an entry at 1.89xx? Donā€™t know where exactly yet. Will update once I look into the graph moreā€¦

We will have to see if this 4 hour candle closes above 1.90000 at the end of this hourā€¦price currently is going to retouch the broken resistance, which may now act as support.
I am keeping my earlier buy entry open, for the longer term playout.

Well well wellā€¦ I woke up and closed a position for 150 points. This has made me very happy :slight_smile: Thank you all for your answers and pipcompounder for this thread :slight_smile: Now will wait for the retracement to be over and try to jump back in. If you guys can share more advice on how to better get back in, I am all ears. Thanks again!! :slight_smile: