(ALMOST) Perfect Swing Trading using Trendlines

Great stuff.

I wonder how many other exotics this could work for?

Hi marshalmax,

This is the first time I trade this kind of pairs so I canā€™t answer you but as I see with GBPNZD it has features: 100+ pips average every day, spread quite high (around 7 pips for me). So you may try similar pairs with those features.

Anyway, I made 2 trades yesterday, just closed all at ~21 pips because market is so choppy today.
Looks like it want to retrace more or try to reverse.
I think 2% live is not bad :slight_smile:


This pair can really roll in the dough. It trends better than any other pair, good enough to respect straight trend lines.

Draw a trend line from that high around 1.97724 on the left to the last high on the right of about 1.91995ā€¦then just trade sells when the price touches that trendline. This will allow you to put a closer stop (remember to include the spread). And If the price breaks the trendline, just enter in the opposite direction. (Buy)ā€¦I keep my trades open until the trend line is broken. If I had entered at the 1.97724 at the beginning of the year, I would have over 700 pips in my pocket in about 2 weeks time. Most strategies donā€™t even make 700 pips in a month.

Hi, do you wait for confirmation on the 1H or 4H that the trendline is broken? Also EUR/NZD correlates with GBP/NZD, but Iā€™m guessing you probably knew that.

TRENDLINE BREAKING

Buying at 1.9094ā€¦stop at 100 pips below, for nowā€¦again I will keep this buy open as the price trends upward, and as a trendline is created, if price breaks below that, then I will close it.

Yeah, TRENDLINE BROKEN!!!

If I was not busy trade another pair, I would jump in :15:
It respected TRENDLINE very well. I think I will jump in when it breaks strong resistance above and retrace back.
Anyway below is my first trade AUDHKD, 70+ pips :-), not too much interested in this pair.
This is another exotic pair, hundreds pips a day but pip value is small.


(I dont know why the picture is so blur)

OK, I buy at 1.1930, quite late because I make a mistake before.
I pressed wrong button and cutloss too late, lost 20 pips :frowning:
Lesson learned!

Anyway letā€™s see how this goesā€¦

If a new trend has started get in during a small retrace.

great discovery :slight_smile: That explains why in my standard deviation channel technique gbpnzd is a huge winner! with this very nice and long trends.

I think this discovery best companion is the simple EA trend me leave me by wadda attar.

This EA simple follows a trend line you drawn, and when it is broken by a configurable number of pips it enters a trade with the stop and take profit you specify.

I did some modifications on that EA to allow ā€œvirtualā€ entries and money management. I attach the modified version of the EA here :slight_smile:
TrendMeLeaveMe.zip (17.9 KB)

To use it simple draw the trend line you want to trade when broken, then rename it. If you are planing a stop buy, rename the trend as ā€œbuystopā€, if it is a sell, rename to ā€œsellstopā€

Configure the percent risk and enable money management if you want to use it, if not, disable it and set fixed lot size.

Also if you want to use virtual entries enable it. Virtual entry is only a way to place your trade until the last moment, not disclosing to the broker where are you going to put your trade until it is time to place it. If you donā€™t use virtual entry, then an stop entry is placed and trailed along the trend line until it is activated.

Also, set the stop loss in pips.

Note that it is IN PIPS. So, if your account is 4 or 5 digits it doesnā€™t care.

I think the downtrend is still intact on 4H, what do you think?

Iā€™m glad youā€™re hereā€¦thanks for the EA, Iā€™ll give it a try.
Anyway we could tie it to a similar indicator to a DeMark Trendline, which automatically draws trendlines?

If your pic is using a andrews pitchfork, I believe the lowest line has to be drawn from the next lowest swing before the last highest high, with the middle at the high before the highest high. However, I believe you could use your lines for a more conservative angle, the price moves far enough, to confirm a valid entry.

do you have the indicator? I found one but it doesnā€™t seem like yours.

The one I used in the one pic I uploaded was part of that fxcm
etdania plateform, I donā€™t know of any real good auto-trendline indicators, besides Demark.

Iā€™ll start looking around.

The tricky thing is auto trendlines always draw two lines, which makes it hard to tell the EA which one to use, and they donā€™t always draw them the way we want. I think this strategy is slow-paced enough to allow manual drawing of trendline, can the EA close open trades if the break the trendline, and open new ones, at the same time?

Can you explain your deviation idea?

I just added to my charts the DeMark Trendline indicatorā€¦

here I see that the trend is still intact.

Iā€™m not using pitchfork, but standard deviation channels. I think it is an objective way to draw trend lines, that anyone can draw in the same way because a valid trend line is defined by the standard deviation rules, that are well known and defined.

I donā€™t think the Demark trendline will do what we wantā€¦unless it has settings that make it span between more highs\lows. I know it updates to another line when a line is broken, which is the automatic part thatā€™s nice, but may not be appropriate for this strategy, afterall.

Please elaborate on your deviation ideaā€¦do you think the price respects the deviation? Or do you use to confirm a solid entry?

Youā€™re right the 4H trendline on GBPNZD hasnā€™t been broken yet, however the EURNZD 4H trendline has been. I think it will break soon then off to the races back up. I could be wrong; I am a dumb newbie. haha

Right now it only opens trades on the trend line break, but closing inverse trades is easy to code. Iā€™m going to add that code and upload it again.

From Standard deviation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, at 1 SD there is about 70 % probs to be inside the channel, at 2 SD 95% and 3 SD 99.9%

With this in mind, I draw a standard deviation channel (standard indicator of MT4) that fulfills the three of the rules. It is simply a linear regression with a parallel lines with 1,2 and 3 standard deviation distance from the linear regression line.

In theory if the price broke the 1st deviation it could be a channel breakout, specially if it donā€™t return to the channel fast.

As you said, the indicator draw two lines, that is what is called ā€œlinear regression channelā€ and it is an standard indicator of mt4 also, but that must be drawn by hand in MT4.

also EURAUD and GBPAUD follow similar behavior as GBPNZD :slight_smile:

The pound and euro are correlated, so if the euro is acting as a lead indicator, it should be indicative of a reversal.

Using an even higher TF than 4 hour will give good picture, too. Daily can be too high for precise entry for max pips, 8 hour is nice.

I am happy with my buy entry so far. I think looking back at price history shows a close trendline is respected almost all the time for GBPNZD, which is what attracts me to it.

This is a picture of what Iā€™m saying about trend with standard deviation channels:

The yellow line is the mean, the dotted lines are first standard deviation, bold lines are the second SD, and light lines are the third SD.

As you can see, almost all the time the price moves inside the 1SD.

On top-right you can see the angle of the trend (-18 degrees) calculated with 1100 bars of 4h.

That can define main trend. If using this trend indicator with lower time frames we can get entry points.

Here the trend line was calculated with M15 bars, and show the current small trend inside the bigger time trend.

Because the higher time frame shows downtrend i should expect a lower move and when placing shorts I would expect also bigger profits. If I place a buy trade I would expect profits up to the mean line of 4h.

What do you think?