Just remember that the pound is weakening because BoE is moving that, issuing more money to weaken the pound.
Just what BoJ is doing AND almost the same as the FED is doing… Based on that, just check which countries are not doing that, and buy them hehehe. The kiwi is stronger because that, the same for aussie and loonie.
My indicator showed a sell today at around 1pm pst, and I wish I would have gotten in. I’m only doing a micro account and can only do one trade at a time and didn’t want to close out my other one yet. My other one is now up 5.6. This one would have had me up 75. At least I’m up and learning =)
Were you trading this on the way down? How did you deal with the fake outs?
The fake outs tend to occur in the change of session, specially on the Asian session. If you use bigger time frames you are less vulnerable to them, so stick to 1h or higher time frames.
Also, check what is correlation, and use it to confirm the move on other pairs with the same currency.
For example, if you are looking for a long on GBPNZD you can check the direction of GBPUSD and NZDUSD. If GBP is moving up while NZD is ranging or moving down, then it is possible to get a long position on GBPNZD.
But if GBPUSD is moving down and NZDUSD is also moving down, the trade of buying GBPNZD is high risk.
Could you please list all the currencies that you think are good to be traded with this channel line breakout system. Thanks in advance 
I think that eurnzd, eurusd, gbpnzd and gbpaud are good right now. But that can change in the future. Just check all the major crosses in 4h view with maximal zoom out to see which one makes best trend moves, and use them.
Thank you for the answer. Got another question. Is there any indicator that will play a sound once the channel line is broken? If you know of a good one a link would be nice, thank again
GBP/NZD now starting to get my full attention! Its a long way off from the daily close, but if you go to the daily chart you will see ( at the time of typing) a double bottom is starting to form. This is forming after a long downtrend where there has been no significant support for a long period. I now want to see price action break and hold solid above the downward sloping trendline of the four hour chart and I believe this will be a strong signal for a significant bottom in place, and some serious pips to be had. The figure of 18920 is where I will have long interest as it is above the ‘V’ of the double bottom and will give the four hour chart breathing space to close above the trendline. As my computer is a muppet I would appreciate if someone like medisoft could post my thoughts??
Regards
check the thread. I posted an expert advisor that trades the trend breakout, you just need to draw a trend line and tell it that you want to trade that line.
mtaylor2 - here’s a snapshot of the daily chart as of 8:15am pst. As an FYI, the orange and blue lines are my S/R lines that I put in manually
BTW - last night I saw the serious support line that this pair was hitting multiple times on the hourly; it hit 6 times and I decided it based on other factors to enter a long. I’m up 25 right now.
From the most recent peak to the most recent low (1.8982 to 1.8754) is roughly 1.618 retracement of the massive upswing on the 28th (1.8838 up to 1.8982). So, combining that key FIB with the oversold indication on the SSD and the strong support level, I entered long. I was hoping for another .618 retracement up. So far it’s only hitting .382…which could indicate that the down trend is still strong.
I’m with on a long…it’s a good idea to hold onto this one, because I really think price won’t go lower, and we could really ride some pips up.
Would you say its taking risk entering right now? Wouldn’t be better to wait and enter a bit later when you are more sure considering that if it will go up, it will be a big jump? Also what how many points stop loss do you put on this kind of trades?
I would be buying right now, if I hadn’t already bought earlier, and using a SL of 100 pips.
Spartakden,
There is no clear signal at the moment to enter this pair. Others had entered on the earlier break of the trendline, which, at the time was a fake out. Technically it looks as though the pair is bottoming. I personally am looking for a break out followed by a retest for entry. If you were to go long now a sensible place for a stoploss would be below the swing low… ie below the recent low.
Thanks you guys!
Another questions. Building Consents m/m is about to come out which is a medium importance news. Its predicted to have a good impact on NZD. Does that mean anything to you guys or you disregard things like that completely?
It is often said that news is already factored into price… The rate decision the following night will have a greater short term impact on the currency pair. But it will likely be just that, short term, if the bank of New Zealand surprise then there is a chance of further Newzealand gains. I am looking at the upcoming events in the greater context of things… That is the pound is heavily oversold. The New Zealand dollar isn’t a particularly strong economy at the moment. Also, the candle stick technical picture ( double bottom) is suggesting that people view the currency pair as oversold. My personal view is the up coming events, unless significantly different from predictions will only boost the case for a GBP rally. However, I am prepared to change that bias in a split second, and I’ll let the candle sticks lead my decisions… Hope this helps
I’m waiting to enter until I have a macfibo signal. BTW - MacFibo is a strategy and there’s another thread about this elsewhere. I’ve found it to work fairly well.
With this pair being flat right now and so much news about the pound weakening, as a newb I’m not going to jump to conclusions. I already did that and lost 150 pips a few weeks ago. I like using macfibo on this pair because the moves are quite large so it’s easy to get 15-30 pips every time and you’re in place when it really moves.
It just went down 30 pips I am guessing due to that news and its still going. Lets see what happens
The closer it gets to support, the better a buying price. Remember, when we are swing trading, it’s not necessarily intraday, the idea is to get a good entry and hold it and ride a trend for 600-1000 pips on this pair, with a 1:5-1:10 risk reward, with plenty of room for price to move. This pair does not stay flat for this long, historically, so it will be moving to trend here sometime and we are in a good buy area. (think a 100 pip window for a buy area, above support.)
A move below the latest lowest low would signal more selling, but it’s hard to say that would continue down for hundreds of pips…I would wait until it bottomed for buy opportunity.
