Tony,
Thank you for the reply.
I edited to add one more question that I’m sure you didn’t see:
What do you consider a breakout- 1 pip below the low and 1 pip above the high or some other buffer?
Do you ignore news?. For example, did you trade the breakout that just occurred on GU due to the interest statement?
Thank you
[quote=“BillB,post:387,topic:6481”]
Yes Bill 1 pip is sufficient and yes am in short following BoE release and its come up 4 pips short of target so far. I have found that exiting before news makes little difference overall. Sometimes news will kick a trade on or kick you out. For a continuation trade I ignore candle wicks so my MC 3 trade is set up for a break below 2.0190
[quote=“tonymand,post:388,topic:6481”]
Tony,
It’s about 7AM here and I’m about to go to bed.
Tomorrow, if you don’t mind, I’ll try to find out more about your continuation trade.
This system looks very good looking back on charts. I have traded a version of Asian breakout, but I don’t believe it’s as good as this one.
I have been looking back at your postings and you are a wealth of valuable information.
Thank you again,
Bill
Hi Tony, what TF charts do you use for the 60SMA?..just tried finding the thread for your BO strat…no joy though.
I trade a few automated BO strats in the background using GBP/USD so very interested in your variant. I’ll be adding to the free systems thread soon…
Its somewhere within this thread fairly early on. I use 5 min charts
Tony, pls could you sanity check this Oanda chart against today’s cable BO?
I appreciate the differences between feeds will vary results intraday.
Thanks in advance.
Tony,
Does the GJ also have limitations similar to the 20min. and 40max. which apply to the GU?
Assuming you could have (after adding the 50 pips) a 100 pip SL and a 100 pip PT on GJ, it is conceivable you could trigger a trade in the opposite direction while the initial trade is still open. I would again assume, you would close out the initial trade.
I’m assuming a lot:-)
I think I’ll just wait for your answer and see how far off I am.
Thank you
Here’s what I see for the GU, looking back at last night’s chart.
I’m not critiquing the system, I’m sure I made some errors that Tony may be able to correct.
I would post a chart, but they’re always unreadable for some reason.
0745 - Short breakout - W
0900- Short BO - L
1135 - Short BO - W by virtue of the 1200 news bar.
1315 - Short BO - L
1345 - Long BO, but MA to price gap > 40
1530 - Short BO - L
EDIT- I see from looking at you November results, that I was all wet in the way I was doing it.
The first win, I show, follows the basic rules, but after the first trade, you’re doing something else.
I’ll pour over it and see if I can break the code:-)
Thanks again
Hi guys. The easiest way to answer your questions about last night is to post the chart. My score was 1-1. As you will see I use a little discretion with the basic rules
At trade 1 if you use the 60SMA then the trade becomes discretionary because of the stop >39 rule (although recently with the high daily ranges these trades have done well). However there is a clear swing high and so this is used for the stop. Entry 2.0253, stop 2.0283, a WIN Would also have been a win with 60SMA stop
At trade 2 the wicks are ignored. You could duck this trade on the basis its a news candle (I dont) or on the >39 rule (I didnt). Entry 2.0219, stop 2.0263, misses target by 4, a LOSS. Perhaps normally would not have taken this for the same reasons in MC 3 but I reasoned that if BoE did cut there would be a big move down - but in retrospect this had occurred in advance over the last couple of days - cant win them all
Trade 3 is legitimate but by that time I was in bed! It could have been ducked for 2 reasons ie stop >39 or the fact that we have moved so far with no retracement since the BoE release. I would have ducked it if I had been around (in fact the >39 rule was introduced to objectify situations like this when really there is no commonsense to the trade)
With GY Bill I dont tend to trade it this way these days. It is profitable but I use the IB approach of James on this and EY and dont like to mix approaches on a given pair. However last night would have been 1-0. The stop is 50 pips, take profit is 50 pips and have never had opposite signals. If the daily range was less than 50 to set that up then I would have the technical stop at the days high or low so exit from 1 trade would lead to an entry in the other. Because of the volatility of this pair a 50 pip retracement (or back to the SMA) is needed to trigger a continuation trade but it would need to be trending smoothly to take it (although of course it has been recently). The stop would still be 50 pips. As one of my Kiwi friends pointed out there is less logic to this pair in terms of the rules than with the GU and when I do get time I am looking for something ‘better’. Having said that it has a positive expectancy. The last month I have traded results for was July when it went 7-5 which was a relatively poor performance (GU, MC1 only as traded that month was 10-6 by comparison)
Heres tonights trades. Currently down 0-2 and need to get to 316 to avoid a whitewash which would be the first for the live system since MC 3 was added. The stop on trade 3 is at 264 below the swing low
What time do you have on your charts,seems to be 3 hrs out on EST?
With regard to the trade you just mentioned, does the fact that it was taken outside the main action times really matter?Because of where I live I find I’m taking trades well before the European open i.e 1900-2400 EST with some degree of success (James ib/ob system).For example yesterday I took a trade on the EUR/JPY at around 23:00 EST 11/12, bought at 162.55 and hit my target (163.64) at about 03:00 EST 12/12, a nice 109pips.I was asleep when the pair made another good move up and if I had been awake there were good opportunities to get another 100+pips.
The one thing that has really improved my trading of this method is the use of S/R levels talked about earlier in this thread e.g in the above trade I’ve had a support level of 162.50 and a resistance level of 163.64 marked on my charts for a few weeks now.
Good to hear its coming together for you Mustang. Before meeting Tess I paid only passing interest to SR levels and like you it has totally changed my trading. Yesterdays trade I wouldnt even have noticed let alone tracked waiting for it to occur before I got her input. As you say the yen crosses have a much wider trading window in terms of time. The low volumes though for GU prior to Europe open make it less predictable than it would be later in the day. You might find the following interesting which is the % of different currencies traded in different sessions in those countries
US EU, 27% UY, 14 GU, 12
UK EU, 33 GU, 18
Asia UY 69 EU, 13 EY, 4
Aus AU 44 EU 14
[QUOTE=mustang;32221]For example yesterday I took a trade on the EUR/JPY at around 23:00 EST 11/12, bought at 162.55 and hit my target (163.64) at about 03:00 EST 12/12, a nice 109pips.
Yes, nice trade. Posted it up for others to see if you dont mind as its got a pattern we have not discussed here before (hopefully got the right trade!). The 15 minute shows a classic reversal pattern of a V and a step. The step allows you to put in a technically relevant stop. As you say all occurring on the higher timeframe support. Of course the liquidity announcement from the central banks then sent it into orbit later on. Later there were further opportunities as the 60SMA was broken and the pair held and consolidated above it suggesting further upside action. Although I didnt trade it I was watching it last night and it was like watching paint dry caught in a tiny 10-20 pip band. Early in my trading I would have moved on or gone to bed but of course these days realise that such tightening is often the prelude to a breakout which lets face it is what Bollinger Bands are about. Hence such a pair is deserving of closer watching to see if a trade set up presents itself. I was however distracted by my GU trade and actively managing that at the time
Very nice, Tony 
I’m in on the same from a fib setup…for some reason Oanda charts get converted to .jpg files even when saved as .gif locally…can just about see it.
Its been a while since I posted a weekend review for the following week. Remember these are just my thoughts and what I will be looking for as the next few days unfold
If we start at the daily the immediate downtrend has broken the channel which has held for many months. This is bearish and should immediately have us wondering whether 2.0000 is back in our sights. At the same time though we have some type 2 divergence on the stoch and more than a possibility of a bounce at this point. We are on a key daily support level. As always have a plan for both sides of the coin. Look for signs of the bounce on the lower timeframe for consideration of a long position (but remember this is against the immediate trend). Stronger would be to wait for the retrace and look to reenter the current downtrend. The 60SMA on the 4H is marking this move well and would be a place to pay some attentiont to
Should 2.0170 not hold then we could look for a short from under this level on a retest from the underside. I wouldnt enter immediately on a break since this could be a fakeout, it may happen soon after the end of the weekend and the stochs on the 4H are welll oversold. If we do go short then the next challenge would be 2.0100 on the 4H and then of course the big one at 2.0000. Cant find any meaningful places at the moment on the H1
As always the action immediately after the weekend break may render these thoughts meaningless and they are always subject to revision as we see what the markets do as the week progresses
Should 2.0170 not hold then we could look for a short from under this level on a retest from the underside. I wouldnt enter immediately on a break since this could be a fakeout, it may happen soon after the end of the weekend and the stochs on the 4H are welll oversold. If we do go short then the next challenge would be 2.0100 on the 4H and then of course the big one at 2.0000. Cant find any meaningful places at the moment on the H1
So as you can see 2.0170 did not hold. The bounce back to the SMA, failure at the round number and then break through interim support all gave short opportunities. I am out at the moment but should probably have left at least a portion in. Now looking either for 2.0100 to hold (note the divergence) with trade long a possibility or a further short if it gives way
