Looking at this afternoon on GU we have clear overhead resistance on the H1 so any signs of rejection on the 15 min timeframe may provided a good short entry. For a long as usual I will wait for a break out and convincing pullback
Out half, stop to be, let the rest ride and see where we go. Next key level is 166 as the low of the day,then 150, 120 and 100
Worth keeping an eye on this. 43pips is a very narrow range for this pair in recent times and could be the prelude to a significant move
I’m sure folks don’t need reminding, but I’ll do it anyways. Keep your eyes on these Average Daily Ranges. The Euro/Yen has tagged it’s avg range (160 pips) of the past 20 days at 159.95 on the kickback off todays low.
For you intraday traders that could either be your full exit or maybe time to book a little more profit if you’re not looking to roll the position over.
As Tessa has said, it’s worth bearing these things in mind as prices ebb & flow throughout the trading day.
1st real genuine area of conflict currently being fought out back at this near term s&r line which houses the 50% of the days high-low print.
This s&r flip zone will house decent 2 way stop activity & will certainly be good territory for the Yen Bulls should they drive prices back down from here…particularly if this pair closes down at the days lows into NY.
Don’t know how many of you follow this pair (USDJPY), but it’s penetrated a couple important levels close by.
The obvious ‘flip’ zone back up @ 109.0 is the main fulcrum which will set up for quite an aggressive confrontation if it manages to meander back. It will need to scale & test 108.50-70 first though, & that zone will attract compound sales on any trip back. How heavy remains to be seen.
Similar fulcrum level on EURJPY resides at 161.0 thru 161.25, where a concerted push would open up a re-visit back to Fridays high (a 38% Fib from a prev chart) @ 162.30.
This has been a trouble free run so far. What to do at the first profit target. As I am now sitting on a 4R trade it makes sense to take some off the table so I am now out half. I have left my stop at break even so my minimum return for the trade is 2R. I have not trailed the stop because if this thing breaks it could be a big move. I am perfectly willing to lose all on my second half to take the chance of a ‘biggie’
Bits & pieces in the above post #479 on this thread make a whole lot of sense most days of the trading week, but the captured comments above probably make the most sense of all.
There were clear fundamental reasons for the pop up on the Yen today. Dollar/Yen & Euro/Yen got whacked to hell as Tess mentioned, on the back of jittery Big Fund (hedge) sales & Jap currency purchases by various big cat operators, not to mention livewire desks from local & oversea�s Banks.
But the vast majority of retailers wouldn�t have smelt that rat at all. Did it matter? Not really.
Sure, having access to that kind of stuff can be comforting, especially if you�re hauling 5 & 10mill clips around day after day, but she & her sister have mentioned time & time again that if you got a decent handle on your technicals & you use the common sense that God gave you, you�ll stay out of harms way majority of the time & earn a few dollars into the bargain.
Even if you�re working off an intraday canvas, a quick reccy onto a 240m or 60m chart will give you your bearings, & plotting your favorite price aids (either Fibs, pivots whatever) will offer you confirmation of your intentions, providing you plot them correctly of course.
Once you shorted the Euro/Yen yesterday morning, apart from extracting partial profits at your level of choice, there was no technical reason to abandon the trade whatsoever. Never mind the reasonings behind the continuation move today, technically it was a slam dunk to stay live on the shorts & compound todays tech set ups.
These are the types of trades which will accelerate your accounts over the long term, ensuring you properly step up your size in accordance with your individual risk parameters.
When these types of scenario�s which have been highlighted by Tess this week on the Euro/Yen reveal themselves, the pro�s lump on big style. They�re all over these kinds of moves like a rash.
Technically, this one is a peach. Add in the fundamental reasoning to the pot & it�s a home run!
When you see the green lights flashing folks, bat the crap out of it. You know enough just from reading this thread alone to set yourselves up with more than a workable strategy to pitch these pairs to & fro via the intraday charts 5 days per week.
You gotta snare the weak prey when the opportunity exists, coz when times get a little leaner scraps are all you�ll feed off.
And here we are back down at the initial price target zone on this leg. It resides at an intraday Fib extension from the breakout & pullback of the monthly lows.
This area is also the 50% of the larger summer 07 low ticks to the double top highs, a level which was supported back in November last year.
Jim mentioned pivots in the previous post. Funnily enough the current lows down here into late New York trade @ 158.30 are 10 pips shy of todays S3 pivot. 
Self fulfilling? coincidence? lucky roll of the dice? who knows & who cares, what matters is: if you can find a way of incorporating it into your daily worksheets & it marries your price action observations, then USE IT.
There are no rules in this game…only winners & losers 
Hi Tess, Hi Jim. A really revealing set of posts to go with some amazing price action. I am still in a quarter but have much to think about re the management of this trade. Its been a huge winner for me but as my primary school teacher used to say ‘Tony can do better’. I am pretty happy with my early analysis. I said clearly I was looking for the break of 160 and it was obvious from the 4H that if this happened it could be big (said that too). As Jim rightly says this is all without knowing anything about what the big players are doing. I dont know how I overlooked the test of the breakout and should have been ready for that. I overlooked the effect of weak retail sales on the Yen via the stock market and had checked and seen that futures were down about 1% about 10 mins before the retails figs. In other words I had more than enough fundamental information even as a private trader to marry to the technicals. I should also be experienced enough by now to know that the retrace was well within the ballpark for this pair and consistent with the size of the earlier move. Much to think about but as Jim says killing moves like this (a potential trade in excess of 12R for me to this date which would have been my best ever and which is going to render about half that) is crucial so I dont think I am being overly harsh on myself when I review what could have been
Thanks for the continuing great work you guys
Heeding your advice mainly because the Dow futures are up over 1%,there was a clawback on the ASX and FTSE is up. Suggests a temporary respite in the market so this short may be shaky so entered with smaller size. Inside bar, stoch turning down, in the 78.6 retracement zone from the hourly chart. Looking for a fairly quick trade so that I can close out all posiitons for the end of the week
Bloody good thread this. Some I don’t understand at all. Keep re-reading it all then suddenly I get called up. When I get back to England again its a case of starting all over again. Hopefully I will master it, then I can make a living from this instead.
Thanks Tony, Jocelyn and Tess and everybody else.
cheerio
Thanks for the posts guys,
Post #520 Tonymand made a lot of sense to me.I have been going back on this thred for the past couple days rereading and studying.There really is a lot of valuable information on this.This is where every trader really needs to start.Instead of geting lured into these so called systems and internet trash.I don’t have much to say I guess so keep up the good work!!!
So this EY thing is still going how best to approach it now if you are not in a trade? You can see from the daily that there is some support in this area going back to 06 so a bounce is possible. The trouble is how do you tell the difference between a true bounce or some kind of fakeout. You wouldnt want to go immediately short since this has not paused for breath since the start of the NY session on friday. Worth remembering also its a holiday in US so trading volumes may be down later today and T & J have warned us that some of the big boys have stepped aside with the volatility (take a look at the last 2 daily candles on this pair)
My plan is to look for a 78.6 retracement and play the same strat I did on friday. Remember though that such a deep retracement occurs perhaps 2-3 times a week on this pair on this timeframe (H1). I will watch closely any retrace less than 78.6. If it came back to a clear resistance (say break below the current level and then retrace to test the breakout) or if I had some other significant event, perhaps double top and divergence then again we would be on. In each case these are the setups and entry will be based on an action trigger that I am familiar with. A period of tight consolidation is also worthy of consideration (again trading the pullback after the break lower rather than risk getting caught in the fakeout. Of course if there is a fakeout with a convincing reversal candle - say a hammer - then the long is on)
So, I have a plan in advance. I am currently only looking for a short at the best price I can get. Action triggers like inside bars are of no interest to me unless we are at one of these key levels of interest. I do not have to sit at the computer all day but check it occasionally. With similar analysis on GU and GY I would expect some sort of trading opportunity in the next 24-48hrs. Most of all there is no stress
Obviously this analysis is continually updated. If we were to get a triple bottom with divergence at this or another proven area of action then suddenly I would be interested in a long possibility
Does this all make sense? It is just my way of trading so I am not saying this is the only way by any means. All I am doing is looking at price action and what it has done in the past and therefore will possibly do in the future. I have no need for an indicator although I do find the stoch with the IB of use (although since its lagging I dont necessarily hang my hat on that part). If we sail on through this level and get a retracement that doesnt touch it we know that it is not currently active - so be it. Like a bus or train there will be another one along soon
My trigger finger used to itch at the start of the week but old age appears to be doing its part in calming me down.
I will try and keep my thoughts updated on this pair during the week in real time. Most of all what I am hoping to show is that you can be wrong a lot of the time (indeed it is inevitable) yet still come out on top if your plan is watertight
Could you argue that this was a sufficient break and retest of the breakout. In retrospect yes of course! In real time I did not. So I am sat on the sidelines in frustration. Always so tempting to chase it and anytime in the last few hours would have worked. However discipline is the name of the game. I assume this is the reaction to the meltdown in the ASX and FTSE today. The only apparent opportunities here are extremely high risk since we have no real retraces to get in on (although I was tempted on GY which had a better one).
Hi Tony,
Thanks for your excellent contribution. I happened to have jumped on the bandwagon as that 155.70 area was tested early in the Asian session. It seemed to me on the 15 min (as you have posted) that it was retested a number of times without closing above it. To me it seemed low risk as the sl was close by at the 61.8% (.87) and the profit potential at 155 was worth 70 pips or so. I closed 3/4 at 155, and took the rest down to my next support line at c154 (line weekly chart). Just wondering with that type of profit potential and low risk sl why you did not get on? I truly value your opinion, and i wanted to hear how you had interpreted what i thought seemed like a low risk opportunity?
Erica
To me it just didnt quite meet what I was looking for. It drifted through with no obvious follow through. If it had gone lower and come back I would have been much happier. I also said a consolidation would do and of course it broke down again and retested but again the fall was lacklustre so I left it alone.
Sounds like you had a real tight plan for getting in so well done. For you this was low risk as you assessed it and backing that judgement is what it is all about. Good to hear that you had a solid take profit plan as well, excellent. Hopefully my time will come later in the week
:)Hello everyone,
I am still sitting back and not trading as of now.I am studying price action a little more,I found an e-book about W.D Gann. and how he traded fibs and all the good stuff.(Price action basically no indicators).I am seeing the EUR/JYP reaching a yearly low.It seems it has got to this level one other time in the middle of August.What is your guys outlook on this pair?Take care all of you,Happy trading